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Archive for December, 2009

Picks 12/28 – 12/31

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

Telestone Technologies Corp. (TSTC)
Medifast Inc. (MED)

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
[tag]ASIA[/tag] 25 30.45 67.50 9.73
[tag]CTL[/tag] 9 36.21 1.08 0.33
[tag]MED[/tag] 16 30.58 -10.87 -2.17
[tag]RAX[/tag] 37 20.85 -56.24 -6.79
[tag]RINO[/tag] 7 27.65 2.16 1.13
[tag]TSTC[/tag] 19 19.84 -12.72 -3.26
[tag]V[/tag] 20 87.46 248.92 16.59

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -16.09%     Learn more

New positions available to open: 0     Learn more

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,416.96

Account value = $2,231.94 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,881.05

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -7.66%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for DECEMBER 2009 = 4.46%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -14.48%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -16.69%
 
 

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It seems like the last week of 2009 was a big profit taking or crowd panicking for no reason. All my stocks were losing the whole week and almost erased all gains for December 2009. Last week my portfolio was gaining about 13.5% for the month, the best result I have ever had. This last year week erased it to only 4.5% gain. Better than nothing. However, this experience made me to adjust my loss control plan for the next year a bit. In my management loss control plan I calculate a potential risk for every trade. It is a potential loss to a stop loss order of every single position and I base my new positions allowance on this potential loss vs the total loss of the entire portfolio. This allowed me to open new positions even though some of the existing positions were showing potential loss. Next time I will open a new position only if the potential loss calculation indicates positive numbers or zero (no loss but breaking even or making a gain).

Dear investors, it is the end of 2009 year. Let me wish you the very best in the new year 2010 and a lot of success! Good luck in your investing or trading approach.


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Posted by MartZee December 31, 2009

MED bought back

Today I bought back Medifast (MED).

12/31/2009    14:31:53    Bought  16  MED  @  31.2594

Did market panic about Medifast Inc?

After [tag]Medifast Inc.[/tag] ([tag]MED[/tag]) has been sold today I got back to my computer to search what happened beneath the surface. Was there something wrong fundamentally with the [tag]stock[/tag] which just emerged on? I couldn’t find anything. At least anything, which would diminish the value of this stock as a [tag]long term investment[/tag].

The only news I was able to find is that the [tag]CEO[/tag] of the [tag]company[/tag], Michael S. McDevitt, sold 30,000 [tag]shares[/tag] on 12/28 at $35.30.

That’s it? This is what caused the sell off at so [tag]heavy volume[/tag] today so the stock lost more than 10% today? I couldn’t believe that professional [tag]traders[/tag] and [tag]investors[/tag] would dump the stock just because a CEO sold 30k of his holdings? The CEO sold ca 0.027% of the total shares held by [tag]insiders[/tag] and a little less than 10% of his own shares and the market panicked about it? I cannot believe it, unless there is something more which wasn’t published yet.

I would agree if CEO sold 50k or 100k of his shares (ca 300k total), than it would be a significant red flag. Today’s action when compared to the technicals and fundamentals of the stock confirms me that it was an action of the crowd of amateurs. I would even agree with profit taking, because the stock was climbing steep up for pretty long time and it raised from $6.5 to $30 per share which is impressive.

I checked the stock as if I would be buying it: its fundamental data, technical screening and I didn’t find any significant problem with the stock. When comparing weekly chart with daily chart I have a strong uptrend and this sell off is actually creating a buy opportunity. I am going to wait for confirmation either tomorrow or in January and if my analysis is correct I will buy this excellent stock back. If the technicals fail and the stock will continue falling I might try shorting the stock. But I will see either tomorrow or next year.

The only regretful thing is that I was stopped out by this panic, but rules are rules and since I cannot watch my holding as closely as I wish the trailing stop loss is my major exit strategy. However, I believe Medifast Inc. has a great potential for further growth and I am definitely going to watch this stock closely.

Posted by MartZee December 30, 2009

MED sold on sharp decline

Medifast sharply reversed today and hit my stop loss. The stock looks great and this seems to be a profit taking after long run. Now I will wait for either a reversal or short term short sell.

12/30/2009    13:36:14    Sold  19  MED  @  29.9606

Posted by MartZee December 29, 2009

TSTC added to portfolio

Today I bought 19 shares of Telestone Technologies Corp. (TSTC), a Chinese wireless provider. The stock is in my screen list for some time, has strong uptrend on daily and weekly frame, fundamental ratios I watch are excellent (revenue growth, price growth, EPS growth… and others) and the stock keeps hitting 52 week highs. Chinese market is still emerging and since we are at the edge of the recovery, the telecommunication in that country will be growing.


12/29/2009    14:10:12    Bought  19  TSTC  @  20.51

Posted by MartZee December 25, 2009

Merry Christmas investors!

Merry Christmas investors!

 

Merry Christmas

Picks 12/21 – 12/24

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

 

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
[tag]ASIA[/tag] 25 31.05 82.50 11.89
[tag]CTL[/tag] 9 36.13 0.36 0.11
[tag]MED[/tag] 19 34.81 163.33 32.79
[tag]RAX[/tag] 37 22.70 12.21 1.48
[tag]RINO[/tag] 7 29.07 12.10 6.32
[tag]V[/tag] 20 86.29 225.52 15.03

Contribution this week: $0

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -2.96%     Learn more

New positions available to open: 1     Learn more

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $2,363.38

Account value = $2,416.96 (without margin)

Buying power = $3,512.83

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 2.27%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for DECEMBER 2009 = 13.12%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -7.3%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -15.19%
 
 

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RINO getting back into the news

RINO lifted and added more than 6% gain on rising volume. Tomorrow, it would be a great opportunity to buy an initial position or add to your existing positions, if this trend continues in the morning.

Today’s news:

“Rodman & Renshaw got even more bullish on RINO today, boosting the stock’s price target to $40 from $33. The analyst cited a strong third-quarter performance, diversified revenue streams, and an improved balance sheet following the company’s recent $100 million capital infusion. The analyst said RINO is trading at about 11.9 times the analysts 2010 earnings compared to an industry average of 17.8x.”
Read more

If you are an aggressive investor, you may buy today or wait for tomorrow to confirm this trend.

Posted by MartZee December 21, 2009

RINO in weak downtrend

RINO is still in a weak downtrend, signaling deeper downturn move on Monday opening. The only positive sign is very weak volume so far. Maybe short sellers are opening their positions and there is not too many of them. Will RINO survive this and continue on its uptrend? Who knows. It is attacking its support on 50 DMA right now.

If you are considering buying, wait until RINO shows its direction, if you hold, be ready to sell if it fails. A potential stop loss is at $23.70

This is my opinion only and I hold shares of this stock ready selling the entire position if it fails at or below the stop loss.