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FED cleared a path for the market to go higher

The uncertainty has been removed and future is great and bright again. Although it actually is not. But market participants are irrational and many times react the opposite way than any logic or common sense would expect.

In the past few weeks, everybody knew that the US economy is slowing down, that it is not in a good shape, and that many reports are actually showing significant economic decline; (for example housing last week showed a 17% loss). Even the so cheered employment data which showed a better job addition than expected, when looking at them closer, actually showed that they were more bad than good.

It should have been the worsening economic data sending the markets down and not the rates hike anticipation. Clearly, the clowns at Wall Street had it all this backwards. But they were able to spook me enough to stretch my options trading to the very limit.

All those reports showed that increasing interest rates would be foolish and premature, sending the fragile economy to a halt, and possibly into another recession. Even Janet Yellen herself admitted this. Removing the “patient” word from the report doesn’t mean increasing the rates or become impatient. She clearly said that she wanted more employment data improvement, more improvement of inflation, and better growth before setting a date where the FOMC would even start talking about interest rates hike.

And yet investors were heavily selling stocks since the employment data came out at the beginning of March sending the market south.

Now, the sky is clear and clean, new horizons are in front of us, and we may see a new upward move in the market.

At least until the clowns at Wall Street start freaking out again over something else. Or until the next month FOMC meeting takes place with a renewed fear of interest rates hike, or when the investors finally realize that the US economy is in bad shape. Until then we can enjoy a new bullish trend.

SPX expected move

Since now Janet Yellen is “impatient” (what else would they be when they are no longer patient), the clowns are now happy again. I expect them to be buying this market and move it higher into the new all-time highs.

In a few days we may re-test the 2118 – 2120 levels and if we break through those levels, we might go even higher. The next stop would be at 2140 (upper Bollinger Band) where we may stop and bounce down a bit. And even higher stop could be at 2160 level.

It is however, important to go and reach these levels in order to keep this trend bullish. If now the trend stalls and starts turning back down, that would signal a significant trouble to this bull market as we would be witnessing a trend reversal. If we want this trend to continue, we must go up now.

Of course, I am not arguing that this market is healthy. I also think that this is a bubble constantly inflated by FED’s ignorance and that the bubble will pop one day and such pop will be nasty. But I do not want to be sitting on the sidelines waiting for the pop to happen before I get involved in the market. It may still take another 6 to 8 years and in the meantime, the market may still continue higher. I want to ride that wave, but just be ready for the pop and respond to it if and when it happens.

Happy trading!
 





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