Posted by MartZee May 25, 2009
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Market monitor – Sectors & Industries


When I was searching for the data from the last week, it seems that the [tag]market[/tag] is losing steam and slowing down. Will the [tag]trend[/tag] enter a [tag]correction[/tag], is it heading for return to its downtrend journey or will it gain new strength to move up? We will see next week.

Last 30 days [tag]performance[/tag] (top 5):

Financials +15.57%
Basic materials +13.53%
Oil & Gas +9.11%
Consumer goods +7.83%
Health Care +6.09%

(Data retrieved from [tag]financial[/tag] websites such as [tag]MarketWatch[/tag], [tag]MSN Money[/tag], [tag]Yahoo Finance[/tag], and others)


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Posted by MartZee May 23, 2009
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Picks 05/18 – 05/22


No new stock picks this week:

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
C 47 3.67 -16.42 -8.69
V 27 65.75 -7.56 -0.42

Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,174.38

Account value = $2,165.77 (without margin)

Buying power = $4,396.43

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -0.40%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MAY 2009 = -1.55%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.95%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.95%


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Posted by MartZee May 20, 2009
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Market monitor – Sectors & Industries


Watching [tag]markets[/tag], [tag]sectors[/tag] and [tag]industry[/tag] groups when selecting [tag]stocks[/tag] to buy is one of the most important things to do. If buying a new stock, you want to buy a stock which is within a [tag]leading industry[/tag]. Sometimes it is hard to dig such data and you have to browse through several publicly accessible web sites to put something together. Here are my search results for this month. I will try to update this review regularly or if any significant changes happen.

Last 30 days [tag]performance[/tag] (top 5):

Financials +21.32%
Basic materials +21.03%
Oil & Gas +13.13%
Industrials +11.68%
Consumer goods +8.26%
(Data retrieved from [tag]financial[/tag] websites such as [tag]MarketWatch[/tag], [tag]MSN Money[/tag], [tag]Yahoo Finance[/tag], and others)


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Posted by MartZee May 20, 2009
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Synaptics Inc – another candidate to buy?

Synaptics Inc - another candidate to buy?

[tag]Synaptics Inc[/tag] ([tag]SYNA[/tag]) is another candidate for a [tag]trade[/tag], which I added to my [tag]watch list[/tag] today. Here are my reasons:

  1. The [tag]stock[/tag] is [tag]up-trending[/tag]. However, I have some comments to this item, see below the [tag]chart[/tag].
  2. Strong [tag]fundamental data[/tag] (12 mo [tag]Relative strength[/tag] 96%, [tag]EPS[/tag] 44%, [tag]EPS surprise[/tag] +30%, etc)
  3. Analysts mean recommendation is “[tag]strong buy[/tag]”
  4. [tag]Short interest indicator[/tag] shows that more than 55% of [tag]investors[/tag] out there are in [tag]short positions[/tag]. If the stock continues growing, they will need to close their positions by buying the stock back, which may push the [tag]price[/tag] even higher.
  5. All ratios such as [tag]P/E[/tag], [tag]P/S[/tag] etc are significantly above [tag]ratio[/tag]s of SYNA‘s peers and the [tag]industry[/tag]. This is what I want to see. (Note that [tag]value investors[/tag] may look at exact opposite results)

However, the stock is not for buy yet. Let’s take a look at its chart to see why I think I need to wait:

Synaptics INC

The stock started trending on around March 23th, 2009, see the green vertical line at the chart. The price rose up significantly soon after in correlation with its [tag]oscillator[/tag]. However, then the oscillator dropped down while the price was rising to new highs. This could be indication that this [tag]trend[/tag] won’t last long. Then the price created its new high point, see first green dot on the price line, while the oscillator created its low, see first red dot on the oscillator field. Soon after the stock price reversed and dropped down to its [tag]50 day MA[/tag], see the second green dot on price line. The [tag]StochRSI oscillator[/tag] did the exact same movement this time. Today the stock created new higher high point (third dot on price line) as well as the oscillator. However I do not have the new high low formed on the price line chart yet (waiting for fourth green dot on lower side, closer to the blue trend line). You may ask why I do not consider the second green dot on the price line chart as confirmation of the trend, because of this point is higher than the low created soon after the [tag]divergence[/tag] on [tag]weekly chart[/tag] (the vertical green line) which formed between March 26th – 31st. I would consider it, if there wasn’t a divergence on the [tag]daily chart[/tag] soon after, when the oscillator was down-trending while the price was growing. This is why I do not count this low into a “[tag]trend confirmation equation[/tag]”. If you were an [tag]aggressive investor[/tag], you could buy this stock at the first cross over (when the blue line crossed above the red one) on March 30, 2009, ignoring the divergence on the daily chart, but since then it would be very difficult to set your [tag]exit price[/tag]. The first dip of the price could not be a dip, but a [tag]trend reverse[/tag] and you would lose [tag]money[/tag] on this trade.

I am going to wait, what this stock will do next couple days or weeks. If the price continues higher and then dips again, but the low point will still be higher than the previous low (the second green dot on the price line), the next day after the price reverses I would buy a small position of this stock.


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Posted by MartZee May 18, 2009
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New position opened


Another stock, which meets my criteria is Visa (V). When you take a look at the chart, the stock is making new high highs and new high lows. Volume is above average and recently the stock showed a small retreat to the trend line. Today it turned back up and the oscillator is indicating a turning point. ADX is above 34 points, so the stock is trending up in a strong trend.
So I entered a buy order tonight to buy 27 shares (based on 3% of total trade risk) of V at market price.
Tomorrow this order shall be executed and if so, I will update this post with current entry data.

In the morning next day I bought the stock:

05/19/2009    09:30:53      Bought  27  V  @  66.03

and I set my stop loss at $59.61




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Posted by Martin May 15, 2009
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Picks 05/11 – 05/15


No new stock picks this week:

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
C 47 3.48 -25.35 -13.42

Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,199.76

Account value = $2,174.38 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,010.82

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -12.71%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MAY 2009 = -12.71%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.63%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.63%


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Posted by MartZee May 14, 2009
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Training for success – when to entry in a new stock position?

Training for success - when to entry in a new stock position?

One of my goals is to learn when to entry into a new position so the [tag]trade[/tag] will be successful. My past trades were about jumping into a new position without knowing why I was doing it. After I bought a new stock I hoped it would grow. Sometimes it did, sometimes it didn’t. Mostly it didn’t.

I read several books and tried to find information on this topic on Internet and mostly I found strategies showing [tag]trend[/tag]s with many [tag]oscillator[/tag]s providing signals to [tag]buy or sell[/tag] and most of the [tag]chart[/tag]s in such books already showed what happened next to prove that the [tag]strategy[/tag] indicated was the best. Whenever I tried it I failed. It was because no one knows what would happen next. We will never be able to say where the [tag]market[/tag] will go. Back-testing a strategy with a knowledge of the future movement is foolish and unfortunately almost every book or a course is based on it.
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Posted by MartZee May 09, 2009
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Training for success

Training for success

If you are an investor who doesn’t trade during down trending markets like me, days when the market is falling are the best opportunity for learning and practicing for future success. I reviewed my portfolio and found out I lost 62% of my investment money, including 19% after I tried to change my strategy I realized that the market like these days actually saved me from more losses. I was basically forced to stop, look behind and determine that something has to be changed. I do not want to be investing and losing money. Who wants to? I asked myself several times what I have to do to improve my investing, where to start, what to study and what overall approach I need to take. I realized that I need to focus on my patience because the lack of it cost me money. I need to redefine my goals since my current ones are vague and hard to follow and the most important part of my learning was to focus on refining my entry and exit to and from positions, since it was a complete disaster of random walk so far.
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Posted by Martin May 08, 2009
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Picks 05/04 – 05/08


New stock picks this week:

05/08/2009      11:26:09      Bought  47 C @ 4.0194

Existing & new holdings:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
C 47 4.04 0.03 0.01

Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,209.80

Account value = $2,199.76 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,010.82

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -0.45%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MAY 2009 = -0.45%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -16.67%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -16.67%


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Posted by MartZee May 08, 2009
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New position opened


During this market rally attempt financial sector was doing very well. During last 30 days this sector rose by almost 44%, its three months performance is about 52%. Even though banks are not out of all of their problems I do not expect any further dramatic drops. A stock I had in front of my scope was Citigroup (C).
I decided to open a small position of this stock:

05/08/2009      11:26:09      Bought  47 C @ 4.0194

I expect this stock may double by the end of the year 2009. I set my stop loss @ $3.13 for this position.




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