Posted by Martin April 18, 2009
1 Comment



 




Picks 04/13 – 04/17


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Recently the stock market was growing and provided very strong gains for the entire month. However, it still didn’t provide any stock – leader in which it would be worth investing. I am still holding the portfolio in 100% cash and waiting for the rally confirming itself and providing leaders breaking up. It seems that if the current trend survives and leaders start breaking out, it would be time for small probe positions. I may transfer my cash from savings account back to my investing account soon.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

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Links:

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TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by Martin April 11, 2009
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Picks 04/06 – 04/10


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Recently the stock market was growing and provided very strong gains for the entire month. However, it still didn’t provide any stock – leader in which it would be worth investing. I am still holding the portfolio in 100% cash and waiting for the rally confirming itself and providing leaders breaking up. It seems that if the current trend survives and leaders start breaking out, it would be time for small probe positions. I may transfer my cash from savings account back to my investing account soon.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

Stay updated with Hello Suckers Hello Suckers Feed

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by MartZee April 05, 2009
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Early bull market? Avoid investing in this rally.

Early bull market? Avoid investing in this rally.

The [tag]stock market[/tag] was doing great last month. One would say that this was its bottom and now the market would grow and grow and grow… Others say the market has a capability to predict an economic turnover about six months ahead. Are we experiencing such prediction right now? Who knows.

Recently I was watching the market very carefully and I’ve seen some [tag]stocks[/tag] doing great. I’ve seen the market growing rapidly. On Friday a week ago and on Monday last week we could see a sell-off, but it turned to be one of the many [tag]correction[/tag]s which may come during every [tag]uptrend[/tag]. At the first look all seemed wonderful and good. Too good.

I do not want to be too pessimistic, but I still can see some odds here. When I was watching the market and some stocks I started thinking why the hell I am staying out of this market? Why not investing in the stocks, which are rallying? I had to repeat myself every day: I want to play safe. I cannot afford crazy [tag]investing[/tag] and this market still doesn’t follow all of my rules yet.

It may be quite dangerous watching the market, money shows on TV and news on Internet these days. Those look too optimistic and it would be hard to resist start investing in this period. Even though I do not watch such shows on TV much, watching the market is sometimes enough temptation.

Let’s take a look why it is good to stay out of the market.

Dow Jones Industrial

  1. The stock market reached it’s bottom (of this crisis) on March 06, 2009 and since then it was growing strong and the [tag]volume[/tag] was rising.
  2. However, there were no [tag]leaders[/tag] showing up, breaking out from their bases.
  3. The market was mostly growing on bad economic data (results were not as bad as expected)
  4. The market was growing on government promises, as Ronald Reagan once said: “The worst English phrase is: I am from Government and I am here to help.”
  5. Even though the market finally broke through it’s long term resistance (don’t be so excited, it still can fall back bellow it), there were no leaders anywhere to be seen.
  6. The second half of this new rally attempt was on decreasing volume.

One of the rules of [tag]RSS strategy[/tag] is to wait for [tag]confirmed rally[/tag]. This rally is not confirmed yet, at least I do not consider it as confirmed. Investing in this market may be dangerous and can be recommended to [tag]experienced investors[/tag]. Trading rule four says:

Assume you’re in a [tag]bear market[/tag] if the 50-day MA for [tag]S&P 500 index[/tag]* is lower than the 200-day MA. Don’t buy any new stock until 50-day rises above the 200-day MA.
(B. Glett, 2003)

* I use [tag]Dow Jones index[/tag].

This is the [tag]number one rule[/tag] almost in any [tag]strategies[/tag]. [tag]CAN SLIM[/tag] strategy uses similar rule, which basically says that an investor should invest in long positions only in up-trending market and in confirmed rally. The rule above is more safe play. You do not have to think about a dilemma: is the market good or bad for investing? Are we already in confirmed rally or not?
When taking look at the chart above, an investor may consider such market as confirmed rally so go ahead! Let’s invest! This rally can turn back down. This rally is led by [tag]laggard[/tag]s. And, [tag]50-day MA[/tag] is still deep below [tag]200-day MA[/tag] so technically we are still in a [tag]bear market[/tag]. Can you miss any [tag]investment opportunities[/tag] in this rally? Not at all. As Braden Glett says this is the time, when there is [tag]sector[/tag] rotation in the bear market as well as in [tag]early bull market[/tag]. The [tag]leadership[/tag] is moving from sector to sector.

When a bull market is just beginning, certain industries lead the way. Then, just as they seem to be getting started, those industries go dormant or even take a nasty crash as another set of industries take their place. (B. Glett, 2003)

Even though today’s market shows great results, investors should stay aside waiting for the market to preen itself. We are about in the middle of this process.


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Links:

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TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!


#1 – Learn how to invest in stock, Proven stock market strategy –Discover How To Turn $1000 Into $1,000,000.00 In 5 Years Or Less…Guaranteed! Or Get $50 Cash For Wasting Your Time!




TastyWorks

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Posted by Martin April 04, 2009
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Picks 03/30 – 04/03


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for APRIL 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Recently the stock market was growing and provided very strong gains for the entire month. However, it still didn’t provide any stock – leader in which it would be worth investing. I am still holding the portfolio in 100% cash and waiting for the rally confirming itself and providing leaders breaking up. It seems that if the current trend survives and leaders start breaking out, it would be time for small probe positions. I may transfer my cash from savings account back to my investing account soon.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

Stay updated with Hello Suckers Hello Suckers Feed

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by MartZee March 27, 2009
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Picks 03/23 – 03/27


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Recently the stock market was growing and provided very strong gains for the entire month. However, it still didn’t provide any stock – leader in which it would be worth investing. I am still holding the portfolio in 100% cash and waiting for the rally confirming itself and providing leaders breaking up. It seems that if the current trend survives and leaders start breaking out, it would be time for small probe positions. I may transfer my cash from savings account back to my investing account soon.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

Stay updated with Hello Suckers Hello Suckers Feed

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by MartZee March 21, 2009
No Comments



 




Picks 03/16 – 03/20


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Now the portfolio is 100% cash, waiting for the new confirmed rally. I transferred all money to a savings account and I will be saving more money for the new upturn, study the market and wait.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

Stay updated with Hello Suckers Hello Suckers Feed

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by MartZee March 13, 2009
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Picks 03/09 – 03/13


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Now the portfolio is 100% cash, waiting for the new confirmed rally. I transferred all money to a savings account and I will be saving more money for the new upturn, study the market and wait.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

Stay updated with Hello Suckers Hello Suckers Feed

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by MartZee March 12, 2009
1 Comment



 




Weak stocks rally the market

Weak stocks rally the market

Last couple days were exciting. On Tuesday March 10th the market started a [tag]rally[/tag]. Finally, one would say. It was depressive watching the [tag]market[/tag] dropping further down every single day. So this weeks’ [tag]gains[/tag] make me feel positive. At least it provides nice feeling about the market’s long expected turn-around.

Dow Jones Average

When looking at the chart, gains are really very impressive and even today I wasn’t expecting the market rallying again. Originally I didn’t want to write about the first day rally, because I expected immediate [tag]correction[/tag] next day. So is this the bottom?

However, there is nothing to buy out there!

When you look at the [tag]stocks[/tag] leading this rally, all are weak, almost unknown stocks and companies, or companies (mostly financial) which were beaten down by this [tag]crisis[/tag] and now they seem to be correcting their huge drop in [tag]price[/tag]. When you look to my previous posts about the [tag]stock market[/tag] you can notice I was writing about several previous rallies which all of them failed.

It would be nice if this rally attempt sparks the new [tag]confirmed rally[/tag], but I do not believe in it much and most likely I am expecting another failure. However, since technically I should consider the market as in rally attempt I have changed the market status to “Rally attempt”, but do not be too excited about it. I am not either.

Tip: It is not time to [tag]start investing[/tag] yet. Wait for the [tag]market[/tag] to confirm itself. This rally attempt can still fail. I would stay out of the market, watch potential [tag]winning stocks[/tag], add them to a watch list and wait. There always will be plenty of opportunities to [tag]buy winning stocks[/tag] when the rally confirms itself.

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!


#1 – Learn how to invest in stock, Proven stock market strategy –Discover How To Turn $1000 Into $1,000,000.00 In 5 Years Or Less…Guaranteed! Or Get $50 Cash For Wasting Your Time!




TastyWorks

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Posted by Martin March 06, 2009
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Picks 03/02 – 03/06


No [tag]new picks[/tag].

There is nothing to buy out there.

Existing holdings:

100% CASH


Contribution this week: $0

Starting account value = $2,009.80

Account value = $2,009.80 (without margin)

Buying power = $2,009.80

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = 0.00%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for MARCH 2009 = 0.00%

Portfolio Gain/loss since inception = -17.62%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -17.62%

Now the portfolio is 100% cash, waiting for the new confirmed rally. I transferred all money to a savings account and I will be saving more money for the new upturn, study the market and wait.


Are you interested in Reverse Scale Strategy and see how it works when implemented to even a small account?

Stay updated with Hello Suckers Hello Suckers Feed

Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!




TastyWorks

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Posted by Martin March 02, 2009
1 Comment



 




The stock market – free fall

The stock market - free fall

Today’s [tag]trading[/tag] was exciting. I didn’t have much time watching it, I just briskly reviewed it in the morning when it opened about 130 points below yesterday’s closing and later I could check it when the market was already closed. A [tag]300-point loss[/tag] was amazing. [tag]Dow[/tag] seems to be heading to a [tag]4000-point level[/tag] as Jon Markman mentioned once in his post.

When looking to to a [tag]chart[/tag] of today’s trading, seeing the market pushing its low limit to a 1997 level, this proves the [tag]strategy[/tag] [tag]buy & hold[/tag] to be wrong. If you ever applied such strategy, during this [tag]crisis[/tag] you would loose all you have been building for 12 years! And if you have started recently you may experience a loss of 50% or more (such as my 401k) and there is no prediction of how long your heavy bleeding [tag]portfolio[/tag] would remain locked in those losses.

Dow Jones free fall
click to enlarge

I think this is a great example and a lesson to every [tag]investor[/tag], that it is necessary to perform timing and when such similar crisis comes to a play it is important unloading [tag]stocks[/tag] from portfolio and move to [tag]cash[/tag] or [tag]money market[/tag] vehicles and vice versa. This is the greatest lesson every investor got the chance to learn from.

Another great lesson I have learned is that we should strictly follow the market. If the market says: Do not trade, then stay away. Unless you are a [tag]day trader[/tag], very experienced or [tag]lucky investor[/tag] able to feel the market’s pulses and be able successfully trading on both sides (shorting as well as be long) of course. In the history I know of only one [tag]trader[/tag] who was able to trade on both sides of the market – [tag]Jesse Livermore[/tag]. However even he refers to some of his trading periods as [tag]choppy market[/tag] which is wise to avoid.

Couple months ago, when I started learning about investing into [tag]stock options[/tag] I was also decided to start investing real money into [tag]cheap stocks[/tag] and trade [tag]covered calls[/tag] on those stocks. What a fool! I considered [tag]Citi[/tag] (C) to be one of those cheap stocks. I though I would just buy some hundreds of [tag]shares[/tag] of that stock and generate [tag]monthly income[/tag] on stock options. I somehow forgot that the stock might drop. At that time Citi traded at $7 a share (December 2008). By today it is $1.2, which is 93% loss! On my [tag]virtual account[/tag] I made roughly $300, but lost $1200. Is this worth holding such stock? I am not convinced about it much. I would prefer unloading such stock when it shows a [tag]sell signal[/tag] and wait for the market to tell me when to buy back.

Another great example is Almost Family (AFAM). In May 2008 it traded between $24 – $25 range. In June 20th, 2008 it broke up and rocketed up even though the entire market went down like a rock. It doubled the price literary within two months. Today it is trading for $18.92. You could make nice [tag]profit[/tag], but if you applied a buy and hold strategy, today you would be losing money. I entered a position of this stock in August 2008 when the market entered in to a rally (short live however) and I was impatient to start the new strategy as quick as possible. Later I realized it was wrong, but I forced myself to stick to my rules. Soon after, AFAM was sold on my rules. Today I can sleep in peace watching the stock falling incredibly down and being happy I am out of it.

There is a lot more examples proving that every investor should be watching her positions and [tag]actively manage[/tag] her portfolio instead of sitting on losses and apologizing herself that she is an investor, not trader.


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Links:

$4.95 Trades + $.65 per Contract – Market or Limit, No Minimums. www.TradeKing.com

Get The Wall Street Journal for 75% off!

TradingSolutions: Financial analysis and investment software that combines technical analysis with neural network and genetic algorithms.

Click Here to get 4 Bonus Weeks of Investor’s Business Daily Digital Edition!


#1 – Learn how to invest in stock, Proven stock market strategy –Discover How To Turn $1000 Into $1,000,000.00 In 5 Years Or Less…Guaranteed! Or Get $50 Cash For Wasting Your Time!




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