Posted by Martin March 29, 2018
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Off Coloring Easter Eggs


S&P 500  2640.00 +35.87 (+1.38%)  Dow 30  24103.11 +254.69 (+1.07%)  Nasdaq  7063.44 +114.22 (+1.64%)
 

S&P PanicAs one trader put it today – “the markets would go higher today as traders are off coloring the eggs…”

So, the markets went up today… tomorrow, we are closed for Easter and on Monday we will see what’s going to happen next. I have no idea and my expectations are mixed. All we can do is to wait and see.

 
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Posted by Martin March 28, 2018
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200 DMA holding: consolidation or more pain coming?


S&P 500  2605.00 -7.62 (-0.29%)  Dow 30  23848.42 -9.29 (-0.04%)  Nasdaq  6949.23 -59.58 (-0.85%)
 

S&P PanicThe market was dragged down by technology stocks again today. But the draw down was as violent as yesterday or last week. It doesn’t mean that this can turn tomorrow into more selling.

The stock market hold 200 DMA so far but will that level hold? Here is what I think.

 
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Posted by Martin March 27, 2018
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The pain


S&P 500  2612.62 -45.93 (-1.73%)  Dow 30  23857.71 -344.89 (-1.43%)  Nasdaq  7008.81 -211.74 (-2.93%)
 

S&P PanicThe rebound on Monday didn’t last long. Today, the markets tanked again dragged down by technology stocks. So far 200 DMA holds but the more often we knock on it the more likely we break down. Also, the markets are now creating lower highs. Technically, this is a problem.
 
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Posted by Martin March 26, 2018
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A Large Rebound Eases Tensions, Will It Last?


S&P PanicWhat I expected on Friday came on Monday. A significant bounce. But will this turn into a recovery or is it a dead cat bounce for further selloff? I do not know and cannot predict. However, given the markets erratic behavior and fast reactions this may turn into a recovery.

We did a few trades today to take advantage of a rally plus some rolling. It was successful. We received nice credit and rolled some SPX trades lower. However, I have a hunch that it would be wise to stay aside and get a clear signal from the market where are we actually going from here.
 
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Posted by Martin March 25, 2018
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An Expected Bounce Turned Into a Panic… What’s Next in the Markets?


S&P PanicHave you noticed that these days when markets are tumbling our cheerleader-in-chief is suddenly missing? When the markets were rising breaking all time high records, Trump was tweeting every week boasting about the markets.

Today, silence.

Our accounts took a hit when our market value dropped by $21,000 dollars which represents 16% overall draw-down. But we are not overly concerned about this drop as in none of our accounts we were forced to take a loss. In fact, rolling many of our trades generated income and when this market either settles down and/or goes back up, we will make even more money.

The overall market sentiment is very pessimistic which is bullish for the markets.

We can see other clues, such as Forex markets telling a different story about this market and trade war fears which again provides a bullish outlook.

We are very oversold today which may drive the markets up next week.

China is not much into a full scale trade war which will again settle the markets.
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Posted by Martin March 22, 2018
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We survived FED’s hike but Trump makes sure your 401k goes down the toilet


S&P PanicYes we survived one potential catastrophe from FED but Trump makes sure we have another coming. His tariffs on China sparked enormous fear on Chinese retaliation and we sold off heavily.

With tariffs, we are in fact cutting a tree branch underneath ourselves. It will not help the US. It didn’t in the past and it will not help today either.

When a selloff like this happens and you get caught with trades now against you you the best thing you can do is wait it out. Do not trade it do not adjust trades unless you must (for example expiration is near). Wait and do nothing. When all this settles the trade will improve and most likely you will be rolling at a better situation.

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Posted by Martin March 21, 2018
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Markets survived FED’s hike, sky didn’t collapse…


S&P PanicFED raised rates today and signaled more to come (although as not as many as spooked investors feared) and nothing happened. The world didn’t end, sky didn’t fall, the Universe didn’t collapse, and spooky investors can finally move on and fear something else.

Today, I again was busy with other stuff and couldn’t do trading. Only two open trades closed for 0.05 debit (with almost a full profit). When I open a trade and that trade executes, I immediately place a closing trade as GTC order for 0.05 debit (or as per our strategy) to automatically close any trade once the options price reaches the limit. Then I can forget that trade (sort of).

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Posted by Martin March 20, 2018
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Markets held 2700 support today


S&P PanicAs posted earlier I identified a support at 2700 level (or around) and today, the market held that level although the trend was gloomy. I expected more turmoil in regards to FED (which is still coming on us) and Trump’s tariffs (this still can come back and spook the investors who already crapped their pants enough this last two weeks).

For our funds, trading was slow today. I was busy with other things and also wasn’t in mood of trading. So I decided to skip it. I did only a handful trades today, and I bought a new dividend aristocrat to our portfolio

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Posted by Martin March 19, 2018
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Nice selloff today! I missed it!!


S&P PanicToday we saw another fairly large sell off. If we measure it by 2017 market standards of doing pretty much nothing but going up.
 
 
 
 

  1. Today’s decline was just a technical pullback led by a previously overbought tech sector. S&P 500 still making higher highs and higher lows.
     
  2. Potential trade war isn’t as bad as it seems.
     
  3. FAANG accounts for 26% of the NASDAQ. Not as bearish as it sounds.
     
  4. YoY change in Industrial Production is still trending higher. Medium-long term bullish for stocks.
     
  5. Housing Starts are still trending higher. Medium-long term bullish for stocks.
     

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Posted by Martin March 18, 2018
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Weekly Results – Mar 16, 2018


TrumpLast week was down. The markets were losing ground the whole week except on Friday we regained a little bit of support and relieve. With Trump shooting himself into a foot, do not expect much better market performance next week.

Here are the last week’s results to review.
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