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Will the support hold?

As expected, after a violent move last Friday, the market stopped at some significant supports at 2070 level:

  • 50 day moving average
  • lower Bollinger Band
  • previous channel resistance, now support

Having three significant supports being met at the same spot seems to be a very strong. But question is – will it hold?

 
SPX study
 

I believe it will hold.

But the market is weak and you can smell that weakness in every move. Any move higher is sold and bulls struggle to move up. Will we be able to move higher or will the sellers attack once again?

I expect the market to move higher to 2093 level, the previous support, now resistance again. This bounce would be just a technical event. It may last longer or only a few days. I could have lasted only today and tomorrow we will see another sell off based on who knows what hysteria.

Historically, March is a strong month and usually shows profits:

 
Seasonality - March
Source: CXO Advisory Group, LLC
 

Will this March show profits too? I hope so.

Here is my expectation for tomorrow:

 
SPX expected move
 

The light grey box indicates the range for tomorrow where the market would move tomorrow. The move can go up or down. I expect it up (but don’t take this as a prediction, just my expectation, which may be wrong). With such weakness in the market a renewed selling may come back.

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

 





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