We are selling a new put spread. We think the market will be slowly crunching up. On Friday, we have 4th of July holiday and there are not too many events happening, so this will be a melt-up on low volume or just a sideways move (unless Trump opens his ass-loaded mouth and does something idiotic as is typical with him).
So we are opening a 3DTE put spread:
Order Summary
Sell to Open 1 SPX 07/03/2025 Put 6045
Buy to Open 1 SPX 07/03/2025 Put 6030
Limit GTC @ 0.60 Credit
TRADE STATUS: CLOSED – WINNER
Challenge Account (2025)
Net-Liq: $3,894.65
P/L YTD: $1,209.96
Credit/Debit Total: $217.93
Our trade expired worthless for a full profit.
Here is a review of today’s market behavior:
SPX Close: 6,279.35 (another strong green candle)
VTS: 26.83% – Extremely overextended territory
Z-score: 2.58 – Third highest since tracking began
Price-MA Gap: 226.95 pts (3.75%) – The largest since the recent rally began
Volume: Extremely low, despite the rally. Indicates lack of strong participation.
Risk Outlook for Next Week:
1. Calls
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Even though we’re extended, the market could melt up further due to:
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Lack of resistance above
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Seasonality (July tends to be bullish)
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Low volatility and liquidity favor slow creep higher
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2. Puts
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VTS is screaming caution.
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If anything triggers even a small correction (macro surprise, unexpected event), puts are highly exposed.
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3.75% Price-MA gap is the highest in your dataset — historically, this level tends to resolve with either a pullback or a sideways consolidation.
We will wait for Monday opening (we will start monitoring the futures on Sunday) and decide what to trade after cash trading opens on Monday. I lean towards Iron Condor which would help us to make the trade very wide and avoid exposure.
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