I expected more of the bear trap today because of bad earnings from Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, but not such a ridiculously strong rally. We finished over 3.46% up today. The VIX futures were in contango, pointing to higher markets, so it was obvious that any pullback was temporary. But we had no pullback Continue reading →

  The chart below shows the trend after-hours; as you can see, the market sold off heavily. During the regular hours, we finished down -0.61%, and after hours -1.60%. Thanks to Amazon’s rapid selloff (the stock lost 20% AH). But the VIX is positive and in contango. That gives some hope that we will see Continue reading →

  The market erased all gains from today’s session as it faced serious headwinds from the tech earnings misses. Google and Microsoft missed, and everyone sold heavily (I was buying). META reported after-hours and has missed and lost 12% AH so far. In this case, I am not a buyer. Despite these issues, the market Continue reading →

  The market rallied again the entire day today, but this time, we are seeing the VIX futures terms turning bullish too. It has moved from backwardation into contango. This indicates that the traders are either fully hedged or turning bullish. Nevertheless, the path to higher prices is open. We may also experience a short Continue reading →

  The market rallied right at the start but then it sold off within an hour. I expected the selling to continue because the VIX was still negative, pointing to traders buying hedges. Right at 10:30 am ET the market turned up again and rallied the rest of the day. Despite VIX still being negative, Continue reading →

  Today, the market was definitely bullish. After an initial rally and pullback, it continued up the entire day. But the VIX is still negative showing that investors do not trust this rally and keep buying hedges. They expect this rally to fail again. But it may be tricky. They may get squeezed and we Continue reading →

  The VIX structure is still in deep backwardation and the market is selling off. Nothing dramatic, but sliding. And there is no improvement. Not even the earnings season which is surprisingly good (the earnings armageddon is not happening) is not able to save the markets. Expect more selling until the VIX improves. However, the Continue reading →

  On Wednesday, the markets started showing weakness and that was confirmed by the VIX futures as they were still in backwardation. Remember, the first two months of the structure of the future are what matters the most, and the first two months are clearly heading down. This indicates traders (big money) buying protection, hedging Continue reading →