Posted by Martin July 26, 2020

Was this a blip?

Account Net-Liq: $5,534.40 SPX value: 3,215.63 Shiller PE: 29.97 Was the drop we saw last week a blip caused by the coronavirus and employment data no one cares about anyway anymore? It looks like it. As Jani said in his post, this may be just a wobble, bulls no longer care about anymore and we Continue reading →

Posted by Martin July 26, 2020

Problems with valuations

Account Net-Liq: $5,534.40 SPX value: 3,215.63 Shiller PE: 29.97 People keep screaming: “The market is overvalued!” Maybe. Investors use all sorts of metrics and formulas to calculate the valuation of the market. They use PE, Shiller PE, Buffett Indicator (typically a Wilshire 5000 Total market cap / GDP ratio) and according to all these metrics, Continue reading →

Posted by Martin May 26, 2020

“The stock market fantasy will end…”

Will it? This is what I keep seeing lately in media and opinions of all sorts of people. While it is true that the market seems detached from reality, the problem is elsewhere. One day, we may see another leg down (or maybe not) but those who bet for it to happen soon may become Continue reading →

Posted by Martin May 16, 2020

Should you be investing now?

  No crisis, slump, selloffs, recessions, and even depressions last forever. The markets eventually recover so when you start buying and adding when the markets are low due to panic and media hysteria, you will end up ahead of the game at the end. Even in 1930 depression, which lasted some 20+ years (if you Continue reading →

Posted by Martin May 08, 2020

Stock market expectations (May 08, 2020)

The market completely invalidated all my expectations in the last week. We were range bound and we broke the range on April 29th just to give it all back the very next day. We returned back into the range. A false breakout? It seemed like one. Until this week. Amid bad data people were expecting Continue reading →

Posted by Martin May 08, 2020

Leverage investing, mainly in these times of selloffs!

I keep struggling with enough cash to invest. I want to invest a lot be buying equities, hold them, collect dividends, and monetize those holdings to generate even more cash. But family life, bills, kids in college, and situations like “something always happens int he worst time ever” is preventing me from investing more. So Continue reading →

Posted by Martin April 24, 2020

How much should I invest in the stock market as a teenager?

As much as you can. Every penny you get and can call “yours” should be invested in the stock market – 100% or more in stocks. Forget any defensive safe investing. You are young, you have time on your side so you can go aggressive as you will be able to fix any mistake. Leverage Continue reading →

Posted by Martin April 22, 2020

People chasing oil buying USO long term are poised for a rude awakening.

People are jumping in oil (USO) futures these days. Data shows that these buy orders are coming from retail investors (from Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and similar accounts). People, who are jumping in USO now think that with futures at 2.50 per contract they will become rich long term when oil recovers. But they have it Continue reading →

Posted by Martin April 15, 2020

Recovery, retracement, crash, or what?

Some time ago, I posted my crystal ball vision about the market creating a pennant, or flag, and that most likely it will go higher. See my predictions here: https://tinyurl.com/ybeduenk Then, I had to find enough evidence out there to confirm my bias and assure myself that everything I saw in my crystal ball is Continue reading →

Posted by Martin April 03, 2020

Should I invest in CDs or annuities?

No, unless you want to waste money. In CDs the interest won’t even beat inflation and your principal will never grow (unlike stocks where you get dividends and growth, with CDs you get poor interest and no growth). Annuities look good on a surface but they in fact deprive you of off the stock market Continue reading →