Last couple of months it was really difficult to say what the market wants to do. It went up a few days, then reversed and fell hard next few days just to reverse again. Trading in this environment was extremely difficult for me.
But at least it was a great opportunity for me to look for shaping my chart reading and improve it in such way that I would feel more comfortable predicting the market move.
What is a typical prediction accuracy? It is 50%. You have 50% chance to be right and 50% chance to be wrong.
What if there is a way to increase a chance to be 70% correct and 30% wrong? Wouldn’t that be awesome?
I still do not have a crystal ball to predict the market, but still working on it. That means that I still do not know for sure whether the market really would do what I am about to predict or not.
For Monday April 13th I expect the market to move up. The reason is that the candles are green and above 21 day MA. Also MACD is pointing up. Of course, tomorrow we may see a red day and that would mean a reversal of this trend. However, earnings season and economic data may be a catalyst for upward move. We are in an environment where “bad news is good news”. Weak economic data assume postponing interest rates hike from FED and that’s what may push the markets higher.
So I expect an up day. If the day ends up down, then on Tuesday I will open a bearish trade. Monday and Tuesday trading will show the direction for the entire week.
Happy trading!
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