Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for the week of January 12th to January 16th. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:

 

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. As per my strategy and goals for 2026, I invest the proceeds to high yield dividend ETFs and for growth stocks, if possible, I use LEAPS and Poor Man’s Covered Calls strategy. The market recovered its last week of the year decline and started moving up again. We have a sell signal but that is an invalid one (weak sell). On top of it, we can see the trend strength improving from last two weeks. The uptrend is extremely weak (Delta volume -4.79%) so the trend is fragile. Also the volatility is spiking (so something is brewing under the hood). Yet, I expect this grind up to continue unless something dramatic happens. My expectation is that the next week will be higher.

 

 

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged SPX fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart turned negative so I moved all my TQQQ positions to cash. Last week we saw a good jump up, but again, the trend is weak (non-existent; we are literally moving sideways). So I am still in cash and mostly waiting for volatility signal to tell me to go back in. The 50 day MA is sloping down now so I am waiting.

 

We also had a false sell signal which was invalidated the very next day. The trend is bullish but extremely weak (Delta volume only 4.20%):

 

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin finally moved above its 50 day MA and now retreated back to the moving average. This is crucial to determine whether to buy in or wait. A few things need to happen: 1) the moving average needs to start trending up, 2) the price must remain above the moving average and jump up from it, 3) we need to see a breakthrough above the most recent highs. If those three events happen, I will be buying BTC back. Until then, I still recommend to stay away and am in cash.

 

 

 

 

 

Happy trading/investing!

 

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

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