Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for December 31th, 2025. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:
SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. The market was still sliding lower, this time supposedly on FED being divided on whether to cut rates or not, but because of holidays, this is pretty much a noise. It will probably continue lower tomorrow too. Overall the chart is still bullish and if this ends up being just a minor pullback, it could be a good opportunity to buy in. However, volatility is so low, that I am suspecting a more serious pullback, possibly all the way to 6,800 level.
TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged SPX fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart is bullish but weak now. Weaker than yesterday. If this continues tomorrow, we may be existing our TQQQ position and go to safety.
BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin is still range-bound and struggles to break up or stage a new rally. It is now trading below the 50 day MA resistance. Because the 50 day MA is sloping down, breaking up above it needs to be confirmed by a successful break, re-test and new rally to enter a position. Not happening yet. I still recommend to stay away. I am in cash.
Happy trading/investing!
Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.
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