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Markets higher, ugly, but still bullish

What a day on Wall Street today! As bullish the market was today as ugly it looked. My feelings about the market are totally derailed and I do not know what to think about it.

In the morning the S&P lost ground to turn bullish and during the day it rallied up. But on low volume.

The end of the day was ugly and S&P lost everything it ever gained during the day.

SPX intraday

Look at the chart above. It shows today’s intraday action. Quite ugly, right?

We broke up above 2100 level yesterday which was a good sign that we may see some follow up.

Unfortunately, today it all looks like a possible head fake. On a daily chart it looks like a shooting star and if confirmed tomorrow, we may be forming a double top.

It definitely doesn’t look great as of today.

SPX daily

There is one thing which may change all this outlook: there is still a lot of bearishness and denial out there. I do not give much about opinions on Stocktwits.com for example, but people in that group are 29% bullish and 71% bearish.

They have been bearish since the February low and one by one of the members out there were proven wrong and missed the rally.

With low volume, this bearishness and short selling at the sure top can be the catalyst to move this market even higher.

It is so obvious that we are topping that everybody expects it. And it usually won’t happen.

But I am not sure about the next price action at all. These are the waters I have no idea what’s going to happen next.

In February when we reversed, it was easy to ride the rally up. Now that we are already on top, we are at crossroads and we can head down or continue higher. Unlike many predictors out there guessing the next move, I want to wait and see what is going to happen.

But I do not want to be sitting on the sidelines completely.

I just will be unloading my trades and lowering my exposure. As of now, I will be sitting tight and waiting my open trades being closed one by one or let them expire (whichever comes first), but I will not be opening new trades until I unload enough to trade smaller trades.

We may also see the market drifting down from here. It will be a better outcome. But if a sell off happens, I may be closing some of my trades and reversing to selling calls strategy rather then put selling.

But now, we have to wait and see.

1 response to “Markets higher, ugly, but still bullish”

  1. Martin says:

    The bearish shooting star candle hasn’t been confirmed yesterday and thus invalidated. I am expecting more upside in this market. Although 2120 is a resistance which needs to be broken first.

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