$SPX more and more the market tries new highs it is sold off – distribution phase. Big boys selling off to retails. Bearish
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
$SPX more and more the market tries new highs it is sold off – distribution phase. Big boys selling off to retails. Bearish
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
If you follow my blog you may know that I own a few accounts and each account has its own purpose and investing strategy. Just to review then and put them into perspective:
TD Account – This is my corporate (business) account. I use this account for trading options and proceeds are used to purchase dividend growth stocks as reserves. I treat this trading as a business and I am now in an accumulation phase. I expect to become a full time trader in 5 years.
ROTH IRA account – This account is obviously my retirement account. I originally started this account to compete with my employer 401k account (due to my negligence, I must admit I wasn’t able to beat my 401k account’s results). I use this account for investing only and I invest into dividend growth stocks. No trading whatsoever.
Scottrade account – I love their FRIP program so much that I decided to apply it and use it. I invested a small amount of money and use FRIP only to reinvest dividends into a different stock to build a portfolio. It is a test of a snowball which I plan to use as evidence that accumulation works.
401k account – This is a must if you have an employer sponsored 401k account. Of course, you still want to have good investment choices in the plan, otherwise it doesn’t make much sense to invest. I started my 401k, but our plan was terrible, so I used it only for the employer’s match. This was also a reason why I started my own IRA account and deposited money in there rather than here. Now we have a Vanguard plan and that’s totally different story.
When our company switched plans I decided to catch up on my plan and contribute more. I increased my contributions from 3% to 6% last year.
This year I am increasing my contribution by 1% to 7% and I plan increasing my contributions by 1% every year. Thus next year, I will increase it again by 1% to a total 8% and so on.
What do you think? Is it worth doing it or invest in a different account?
Happy investing!
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: 2 Comments |
Last couple of months it was really difficult to say what the market wants to do. It went up a few days, then reversed and fell hard next few days just to reverse again. Trading in this environment was extremely difficult for me.
But at least it was a great opportunity for me to look for shaping my chart reading and improve it in such way that I would feel more comfortable predicting the market move.
What is a typical prediction accuracy? It is 50%. You have 50% chance to be right and 50% chance to be wrong.
What if there is a way to increase a chance to be 70% correct and 30% wrong? Wouldn’t that be awesome?
I still do not have a crystal ball to predict the market, but still working on it. That means that I still do not know for sure whether the market really would do what I am about to predict or not.
For Monday April 13th I expect the market to move up. The reason is that the candles are green and above 21 day MA. Also MACD is pointing up. Of course, tomorrow we may see a red day and that would mean a reversal of this trend. However, earnings season and economic data may be a catalyst for upward move. We are in an environment where “bad news is good news”. Weak economic data assume postponing interest rates hike from FED and that’s what may push the markets higher.
So I expect an up day. If the day ends up down, then on Tuesday I will open a bearish trade. Monday and Tuesday trading will show the direction for the entire week.
Happy trading!
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
UPDATE: (04/14/2015) Yesterday, ConocoPhillips price dropped a bit. That allowed me to lower my limit price lower to $67.55. Today, the trigger order fired and executed my limit order. I bought 16 shares of COP today!
In my ROTH IRA account I use a commission free ETF to save money for my next purchase. Because of free purchases of the ETF I can buy one share and sell one share and pay nothing. This allows me to save all dividends and my small contributions into the ETF and once I have saved enough I sell the shares in ETF and buy a dividend paying stock.
Last Friday, I saved my minimum amount for purchasing a stock – $1,000 so I could sell the ETF (without paying any commission or trade fee) with 4% profit, release the cash, and now I am placing a purchase order for Monday to buy ConnocoPhillips (COP) stock.
On Monday I will initiate my first position in COP. But I will use my trigger order strategy to buy this stock. That means, that I will place a conditional order to purchase this stock only if it moves higher. If it starts moving down from the current levels, I will not buy and my limit order will be lowered to a lower price. That means that I will be able to track the price down and buy into a position only when the stock reverses (or continues higher from the current price.
See the white board below:
As you can see, I place my initial limit order slightly above the current price (P1). It is a conditional order, basically saying “if the price is equal or greater than P1 then enter a limit order to buy at P1 price.“.
So if the price of the stock goes higher, hits the P1 limit, the conditional order gets hit and it activates a limit buy order. The stock gets purchased.
If however, the stock goes lower, I will lower my limit price to P2, and then to P3, and P4, etc. If at the bottom the stock reverses and hits my target (P5), the stock gets purchased and I will ride it up.
Of course, this is not a 100% bulletproof strategy, but works most of the time to capture a better price.
Sometimes you will get filled and short after the fill the stock reverses back down and continues in a selloff. That’s a reality of the market. It happens and you cannot do much about it. But at least we tried to get the best price, right?
To eliminate a negative impact of this, I never use an all-in purchase but buy a small portion of the entire position. So if the stock reverses and continues lower I can repeat the process to add to my position.
On Monday, I will have the following conditional order out:
If COP last is equal or greater than 67.71 then
Buy 16 COP at 67.71 LIMIT GTC
Total shares holding after the purchase: | 16 |
Estimated annual dividend: | $46.72 |
Consecutive Dividend Increase: | 2 years |
Dividend yield today: | 4.60% |
Dividend 5yr Growth: | 8.45% |
Dividend paid since: | 1934 |
This stock may also provide a nice capital appreciation when oil price returns back up. This stock may also move back up to ~$80 level and make a nice ~$12.30 capital gain per share. In the meantime, I will be collecting a nice dividend, which I will be saving into a commission free ETF, saving money for my next purchase.
What do you think? Would you agree with COP stock or do you prefer a different energy stock?
Happy trading and investing!
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: 2 Comments |
March 2015 was a month which brought in losses. If you bought stocks I selected as a buy in March, you would be losing -5.32% for the month.
The reason for losses is energy stocks as mostly they continued in a sell off during the month. However, I expect these stocks to go up at some point as they continue underperforming the market greatly. Remember, when others are in fear, be greedy and when other are greedy be fearful. Now, energy stocks still belong into this category of stocks dumped by investors of fear over their exposure to oil.
But many of those stocks are old dividend paying stocks being around for many years. They survived oil crisis in 2008 as well as in 1987. I believe, these stocks will survive this oil crisis too.
So it is time to rebalance my Motif Investing portfolio, remove good performing stocks, add new, or leave those still in my list. Here is the selection for April 2015:
I purchased this motif myself to show confidents in my stock selection. You can open your account too and if you start investing, you will receive a $150 bonus from Motif Investing.
I will be rebalancing this motif every month. Let’s see, how well this portfolio will do at the end of the year.
Good luck to all of you!
Stocks to buy in January 2015
Stocks to buy in February 2015
Stocks to buy in March 2015
Stocks to buy in May 2015
Stocks to buy in June 2015
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
The stock market fell by 3% since all-time high in February. Is more selling coming or are we going up again? Unfortunately, I think the uptrend is broken already and we will see more selling. Although tomorrow we may see a bounce from the oversold territory it looks like that the bounce will be sold off again.
This is a typical behavior of a market phase called distribution. And we should be careful about this because it means that the big players are selling their positions. Retail investors typically unaware of this phase are buying stocks while the big players are selling to them. The distribution phase may take a long time. In 2007 – 2008 this distribution phase took almost the whole year before the market crashed while everybody was optimistic and happy about the market and economy.
Although these days nobody seems to be happy about the economy it doesn’t mean that we are still safe and in an uptrend and that we haven’t already entered into a distribution phase. We may already be in one and yet not knowing about it. A good way to find whether we are in a distribution phase is to realize that the market struggles to make new highs and if it does it, it is heavily sold off immediately.
Sounds familiar? If you look at the market in the recent months, we have moved basically nowhere and all new highs were heavily sold off. A few days ago, we didn’t even make a new high and yet that spike was sold off too. If this continues, we are clearly in the topping pattern and thus we should expect more selling or even a major correction.
If we see a correction of 10% or even 15% then it will actually be a good thing for this bull market and we may see a continuation in the trend. If a deeper than 15% correction is about to hit us, then a bear market will come. But that is still too early to say where we are and what will happen.
What is my expectation for tomorrow?
Yesterday, I expected a bounce. But it didn’t happen and the market continued in selling. Later in the afternoon, we saw a small recovery when the market recovered from 2045 up to 2067. By the end of the session we dropped back and closed at 2056.
I think this weakness will continue tomorrow and in coming days. Since the market is oversold we may see a bounce tomorrow. I expect it to go all the way up to 2070. But then I expect it to be sold off again. If however we will see the market breaking up thru the 2070 level, we may actually go up to 2115 level. Which I believe will be sold off too.
This potential bounce is better seen from the following chart:
As you can see we broke below the trend and other supports (again) and the potential bounce would have two possible outcomes:
1) We bounce up to 2070
2) Or we break thru it back into the channel, which may be a good thing for this market.
Given the weakness of the market, I do not expect it to break up into the channel and if so, it will be sold off.
Two days ago I received a sell signal. That helped to reverse all our trades into bearish ones. If we get a bounce tomorrow, I do not expect a buy signal to occur yet. Thus I think that such bounce will be only a small bump up before a renewed selling comes back. If however a buy signal fires up, we will know that the market is bound for more upside.
Tomorrow, a GDP report comes out. There are two possible outcomes of it:
1) The report will be good – and investors will panic again out of a fear that FED may change its mind and raise rates earlier.
2) The report will be bad – and investors will panic too out of a fear that our economy is bad.
I would be surprised if the clowns on Wall Street would react positively, but it may happen.
We do not have any trades (except one of my bear call spread) expiring tomorrow and since next week I will be traveling, I will be taking off from my trading for the next week.
So be alert and happy trading!
Super 8 Film to DVD Advertising |
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: 1 Comment |
The stock market is weak and every move higher is immediately sold. Today we created a lower high which is a significant signal of a trend reversal.
Tomorrow we may see a bounce up higher – I expect the market to bounce up to 2107 level, but then we may see a renewed selling pressure. The market may then fall all the way down to 2050 level before it bounces up again. The renewed selling may happen on Thursday and Friday or next week.
If we bounce tomorrow up, I will take this as an opportunity to unload some of my bullish trades which are currently endangered by the market selling.
Here is my expectation for tomorrow:
As you can see today, the market smashed through all supports and stopped at the lower support of the channel. This put the market into an oversold territory and we may bounce back up to the previous day high which was at 2107 level.
If that happens, then we will be unloading our short term bullish trades, mainly our bull put spread against SPX 2095/2100 even though it will be at a loss.
What if the market won’t bounce tomorrow and will continue in a downtrend?
In that case I will be reversing the trend into a bearish debit spread. This reversal will most likely be a losing trade. But it will be a lot smaller loss than if we just plainly closed the trade now.
Or another option would be reversing the trade into a call spread. This will all depend on tomorrow’s price action.
What is the short term outlook? Here is a chart showing that the market clearly lost the momentum and is once again in a selling mode which will most likely continue:
As you can see, I asked a question whether we bounce or continue higher. Yesterday, it still was unlikely that we would bounce. Today it is clear that we did. This is a potentially dangerous game changer. If we continue lower, then we created a lower high and that may cause the market changing into a distribution phase.
Here is yet another view on the short term trend showing a first alert of a short term trend reversal. Note that this is a short term trend (1 year, daily market). Long term, this bull market is still intact.
We will be watching this trend very carefully and send a newsletter to our subscribers what we are going to do with our open trades tomorrow or in coming days.
Happy Trading!
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
Last week trading was within my expectations. Thursday trading was a small pullback based on the previous strong rally. That small pullback had a small impact on my trades, but nothing too dramatic and nothing hard to handle, although my profits weren’t as expected thanks to necessary adjustment.
In my quest to assess where the market would go next I am posting my expectation for the next week.
The market is still in a full swing up to higher levels. No matter what zig-zag we may see during the week, the trend is still intact and strong up.
The chart below indicates my overall view for the next week to the next month:
The last candle indicate a strong push up. We may see a small retreat again tomorrow, but overall the trend is still up approaching 2120 resistance. Will we break that resistance or will it push the market lower? Although we may see some choppiness around this level, overall I believe the market will be able to break this level and at least in the next two weeks we will see a strong rally up.
Why I think this rally will continue up? Look at the chart below. This clearly indicates that we are in the middle of an upswing. Both the price chart is uninterrupted in an upswing and MACD just performed a bullish crossover. Even if the crossover and move of the MACD will be miniscule it will still provide a few days of strong move up before we may see a reversal.
Unless something fundamental changes the market, such as very bad data from the technical perspective, there is nothing what would change this trend. Fundamentally, we have a few events being reported next week such as CPI index, jobless claims, and GDP report which may move the market. However, last reports didn’t move markets that much and even if the reports come out weak, the investors will most likely see it as affirmation of FED not raising the rates and that would move the markets up even more (if we assume the same ridicule behavior of last when bad news are good news).
Below is my expectation for Monday. I left my Friday projection on to see how accurate it was. Well, I expected the market to go higher, yet my expectation of the move was totally off. We rallied premarket very strong and then the entire trending was sideways with a small sell off at the end. We still finished Friday up.
For tomorrow I expect the markets to be somewhat weak (based on MACD expected move) and at the end of the day we may rally again. Also we may see the entire Monday down a bit and resumed rally on Tuesday. It depends on how the MACD swing would look like. Most likely we will return back to the trend line, but may stay in its upper portion.
Let’s see how accurate this would be.
Happy trading!
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
Recent Comments