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Posted by Martin September 04, 2023
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Septembear or Septembull?


Will we see a Septembear or Septembull from now on? August correction is over. I know it is a bold statement, and you may find many people out there who would oppose and disagree with me. CNBC keeps pulling bears from the past who got stuck in the past, and they keep predicting a bear market, recession, and the end of the world. It’s almost comical.

The US economy was resilient and strong despite rapid interest hikes from the FED, but that started changing. The very last jobless claims report we received on Friday started showing cracks in the labor market. Bears use it as evidence for their recession claims. But the charts of multiple economic data show otherwise. The chance, not prediction, of a continuing bull market is higher than the odds of a recession. People fail to acknowledge different circumstances to what was happening in 2020-2023. We could be rightfully worried if the monetary policy happened during normal boring years. But 2020 was not a normal, boring year. A sudden economic stop moved the pendulum of economic balance way to the extreme. In 2021, that pendulum swung to another extreme. In 2022, we overshot to the opposite extreme again, and in 2023 that pendulum is attempting to get back to the mean. I don’t think this is recessionary unless the FED screws it all up (yes, the chance is high).

 
Septembear or Septembull
 

But, so far, J. P. is managing this economic monster well to a soft landing (if there will be any landing at all, it could just be a normal slowdown).
The market finished off August on a high note. Interest rates fell with a big drop in the Job Openings (JOLTS) numbers. The tech stocks had a good week. Oil is becoming a big story as it is hitting $86.05 per barrel today (Saturday). I fear that supply is being weaponized against us by countries that don’t like us.
President Biden cannot turn to an almost depleted Strategic Oil Reserve this time to help keep prices down. It is also very questionable whether he has the will to fight back by increasing supply in the U.S. The energy and tech sectors continue to look best right now.
 




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Posted by Martin September 03, 2023
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August 2023 Investing and Trading Report


Another month, August 2023 is over. And it was a difficult month for our investing and trading. I expected it to be difficult because the markets rallied too fast and too hard in the previous few months. And if you are subscribed to our newsletter, I wrote in it that I wanted a deeper pullback. And we got 5% retreat which was perfectly normal and to be expected correction. This was a correction and it didn’t change the narrative of a new bull market. In fact, it confirmed it. We have more bullish signals indicating that this market will go higher.

Nevertheless, this pullback had surprisingly bad impact to our investing and trading. Our net-liq of the account shed away a stunning 16.80%. It dropped by -$12,033.60. I suspect this to be the result of margin trading and options which suddenly spiked and because I have some of them naked and sold them during low IV time, their impact was significant. However, as the market returns back to upward trajectory, I expect this to correct and the account will go higher again.

Our cash to buying power dropped a bit as we continued reinvesting our proceeds:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 08
 

Our options trading delivered $3,498.00 gain last month (4.88%). Our net-liq value decreased by -16.80% to $71,619.81 value. Our overall account is up 15.04% YTD and -31.56% from when the bear market started in January 2022.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $71,619.81 -$12,033.60 -16.80%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$3,498.00
01 January 2023 Options: +$1,466.00 +1.97%
02 February 2023 Options: $2,754.00 +10.34%
03 March 2023 Options: -$1,462.00 -2.05%
04 April 2023 Options: +$16,410.00 +8.54%
05 May 2023 Options: +$6,942.00 +9.85%
06 June 2023 Options: +$3,116.00 +4.05%
07 July 2023 Options: +$4,484.00 +5.36%
08 August 2023 Options: +$3,498.00 +4.88%
Options Premiums YTD: +$37,308.00 +52.09%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: +$795.50
01 January 2023 Dividends: +$407.13
02 February 2023 Dividends: +$731.21
03 March 2023 Dividends: +$482.14
04 April 2023 Dividends: +$820.22
05 May 2023 Dividends: +$590.19
06 June 2023 Dividends: +$848.65
07 July 2023 Dividends: +$478.37
08 August 2023 Dividends: +$795.50
Dividends YTD: +$5,402.09
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $211,270.70 -$31,952.04 -13.14%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 6.15%
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 23.35%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $547,583.80 251.97%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $27,472,481,899.83 12,641,273.08%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $1,590,227,801,629,540.00 731,732,355,914.03%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $10,754,061,522,193,600,000,000.00 4,948,407,244,053,650,000.00%
Portfolio Alpha: 46.01%
Sharpe Ratio: 4.42 EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.56
CAGR: 199.74%
AROC: 53.77%
TROC: 5.15%
Our 2023 Goal
2023 Dividend Goal: $8,000.00 67.53% In Progress
2023 Options Income Goal: $70,000 53.30% In Progress
2023 Portfolio Value Goal: $96,532.51 74.19% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 40.93% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 7.16% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 

In August 2023 we have received $795.50 in dividends bringing our dividend income at $5,402.09.

We did not purchase any dividend stock this month.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity 7
 

As you can see in the chart above, August was pretty much catastrophic for our equity holdings. They dropped significantly.

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout 7

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 

In August 2023, we purchased no growth stocks.

 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

In August 2023, our options trading delivered a gain of $3,498.00. I hoped, we would be able to make more money but due to the correction, I had to stay low and preserve cash to maintain buying power. I also used this income to adjust some of the SPX trades that needed adjustment so they can expire worthless.

 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 

We received $795.50 in dividends last month. Our portfolio currently yields 6.15% at $71,619.81 market value. I am happy with this progress as I am nearing a $1,000 a month in dividend income. As of today, our projected monthly dividend income is $688.97 (the real income is $450.17, but that is because our new holdings didn’t pay the dividend yet). Note that these numbers are averages. One month we get less another month we get more income.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $547,583.80, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $8,267.69 annual dividend income ($688.97 monthly income). We are 1.51% of our 10 year goal of $547,583.80 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC 08
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 

Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value decreased from $243,222.75 to $211,270.70 last month.

In 2023 we planned on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading 8
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.

 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 4.88% monthly ROI in August 2023, totaling a 52.09% ROI YTD. We exceeded our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -31.56% from when the bear market started. However, in 2023 our account is up 15.04% YTD. During 2022 bear market it became apparent that although I had a lot of cash savings, I didn’t have enough. So my goal for the rest of the year will be accumulating cash. The market is still in an overbought territory so I will not be making new purchases, rather, I will be saving cash for the next crash.

Our trading averaged $4,663.50 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $55,962.00 in trading options in 2023. As of today, we have made $37,308.00 in trading options. This is below our projected goal. Based on the goal, we should average $5,834 options income per month. But I hope, as the year progresses, we can increase options income to our goal.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq 7
 

The drawdown of our account is highly discouraging, but it started improving. I am not selling any stock positions, and I will be buying back those I sold to release our Buying Power. On top of that, I will be buying more dividend-paying shares as much as possible.

 

Account Stocks holding

 

TW Account holdings 7
 

Last month, S&P 500 grew 56.11% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 29.47%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 grew 23.38% and our portfolio 19.99%. We are underperforming market by -3.38%.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings adjusted by options premiums.

 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 

TW Account holdings Growth YTD 8
 

Our stock holdings are underperforming the market. Hopefully, this trend will improve, and we will do better than S&P 500. However, our portfolio performs better in bear markets so far. In 2022 we outperformed S&P 500 by 11.73% (it lost less than the market).

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 7.16% of that goal.

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 40.93% of that goal.

Our 2023 year goal is to grow this account to a $96,532.51, and today we accomplished 74.19% of this goal.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 

TW Options Trading Income 8
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income 8

 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends 8
 

We planned to make $8,000.00 in dividend income in 2023. As of today, we received $5,402.09. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $8,267.69 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $688.97, and our current monthly dividend income is $450.17.

 
TW Received vs Future monthly Dividends 8

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button, so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 




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Posted by Martin August 29, 2023
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Technical view: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)


Technical view
 

NVDA is in stage #2. The stock rallied very hard and there is a lot of controversy about this stock and the company it represents. We have a strong cult built around the stock. People would die defending it and they buy no matter what. And these people were awarded sticking to their guns further empowering their cult-like mentality. Then there is a whole other group of bears saying that this stock is crazy, the run unsustainable and the stock is overpriced. The rest don’t know how to value this company. And it is a problem. It is extremely hard to value NVDA and predict its future outcomes. Even if we step way far away to see the whole picture.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading NVDA Technical View:




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Posted by Martin August 16, 2023
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Technical view: Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR)


Technical view
 

ABR is in stage #2. This is one of the better mREITs out there. I have invested in a few of them in the past and got burned in all of them. I invested in AGNC or ARR. A friend of mine invested in NLY. All three failed. AGNC looked promising but after a year or two when I was invested, they started cutting the dividends. ABR is the only one, so far, that has raised the dividends and also provides capital appreciation. The stock was on a downward spiral since November 2021 but since it hit its bottom in April 2023 it staged an impressive recovery:

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading AES Technical View:




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Posted by Martin August 09, 2023
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Will 4500 SPX level hold today?


Yesterday, the selloff continued but in the afternoon we rallied and erased most of the losses in an attempt to retake the 4500 of SPX level. Will this level hold today? Or was this a bottom of the dip? Or is something worse brewing under the hood?

Today we may see the 4500 SPX level retest again but tomorrow we are due to receive a CPI report and investors may be buying for the event expecting a rally. So, we can expect weakness this morning but another rally attempt in the afternoon.
 




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Posted by Martin August 08, 2023
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Markets being weak


The markets continue being weak for today. All indicators are pointing to more weakness and yesterday’s rally was just a bounce attempt. It seems that more bearishness will be on Wall Street with more and more bears (and media) coming out with all sorts of doom predictions. The most prevalent prediction out there is that the stocks are set for a crash. Didn’t we just went out from a year long bear market?

Many studies I watch show however, that this weakness is perfectly normal and to be expected. And on top of that, we can expect gains to follow. Of course, once we clear this pullback.

Investors are still reluctant to be buying at the current levels. The markets are down about 2.5% and the investors wish for at least 5% pullback to buy back. But savvy long-term investors do not sell but buy. If you choose a good quality company, you do not need to trade it. You buy it, and then enjoy the life-long ride. And days like this one is perfect to be adding to your portfolio.

Given that the rally yesterday was weak and with no volume, I expect further weakness today. But we may see a better day tomorrow as the investors may start positioning their portfolios for the latest CPI (Consumer price index) report due on Thursday. Today, more weakness brings the market to the short-term oversold territory.
 




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Posted by Martin August 03, 2023
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Technical view: AES Corp, Inc. (AES)


Technical view
 

AES is in stage #2. But it is a weak uptrend, though. Over a longer period of time, the stock is more in stage #3 than #2. Since 2018 it saw a volatile move up, then crash in 2020, sharp recovery and now a zig-zag trading. It makes sense to wait for the bottoms of this choppy move to buy. We are currently in the lower portion of the channel and the stock is undervalued. AES is a boring dividend paying stock. It was a laggard for the year so far and if utilities pick up, the stock may go higher.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading AES Technical View:




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Posted by Martin August 02, 2023
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Another kneejerk reaction


So Fitch downgraded the US creditworthiness and everyone is freaking. Washington is furious and spitting anger all around. Biden and Yellen are commenting that this is outdated, politically motivated, and the US avoided default months ago. And stock market is selling like crazy in another kneejerk reaction.

Not that I am getting anxious about the market selling today. It was a needed selloff as we were seeing markets overheating again. In fact, we should see at least 10% decline which, personally, I do not need myself right now but it would be very healthy.

Now the US debt is rated AA+ instead of AAA. Do we deserve it? Most likely yes. The circus we all witnessed a few months ago when Republicans and Democrats staged their pitiful standoff about whether we should send the country further into debt or go bankrupt was disgusting. But will the rating downgrade change anything? Of course not. The politicians will keep spending as they were before. It is not their money and they need to bribe their donors and voters somehow. To ones, they provide tax cuts, to others they promise more welfare checks. And promises cost nothing.

But we have already heard that this will do nothing, DC will not change, and it will be all forgotten, probably as soon as tomorrow. I just do not understand why investors are dumping shares they were expensively buying just a day ago. Yes, yesterday you could buy shares of Apple (AAPL) for $195 and some change and today everyone is selling it for $192 and some change. The rest of the market and stocks follow the same suit.

In the meantime, enjoy cheaper prices, let others freak-out and wait for our government to do the exact same thing they kept doing for decades – spending.




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Posted by Martin August 01, 2023
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Technical view: Alphabet, Inc. (GOOGL)


Alphabet (GOOGL) The stock of this giant is constantly undervalued. The company outgrowths the market every quarter, and now it is set to “turn on” its Gemini AI project. Be aware of the Terminator coming. Many investors and analysts underestimated Google being late into the AI game after its initial failure with its chatbot. They take AI seriously and work on it aggressively, planning to integrate AI into YouTube, News agencies to help reporters write news reports, and integration in the Google Drive suite (namely into the Google Docs and Sheets apps). This is to fight back the threat to their search engine dominance and, if successful, expect rapid growth in earnings and stock appreciation.
 

Technical view
 

Technical view
 

GOOGL is in stage #2. The stock just broke up from its consolidation pattern. It rallied but then stalled again. There seems to be a lot of negativities about this company. I think it is all coming from the initial AI chat bot Bard failure. Everyone thinks Google lost this battle and now its biggest competitor, Microsoft, got ahead. This threatens the $150B search engine and advertising market Google dominated for year. And it still dominates but investors and analysts are gloomy about it. As is typical for Wall Street, they think Google is done. It’s over. The company is finished. Of course, that’s all wrong and nonsense.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading GOOGL Technical View:




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Posted by Martin July 29, 2023
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June – July 2023 $100 Challenge account review


Our Challenge account started performing well again. We started the account at the end of the extremely strong bull market in 2021 and then had to ride it through the entire 2022 bear market. That was challenging. We had to close some trades for a loss and pretty much stop trading. We however kept buying shares of the stocks of our interest – high yield but good quality dividend stocks.

Our goal is to not only grow the account but also generate income from dividends and monetizing our positions by selling options around those positions. And we are again on track with this goal and strategy.

It takes patience and stick to the strategy. The markets will not be always favorable to us. Nor FED being always friendly with zero rates policy. One must adjust investing and trading to be inline with the market, but one must not stop investing or you would miss the best time in the market.

 

Accumulation phase

 
The account is still underperforming our goal but the spread between the goal and current value started narrowing fast. We are still investing in stocks of our interest and building equity positions. We also started selling put spreads against indexes to generate income.

 

June – July 2023 Challenge account review

 

MONTH GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
March 2022: $1,130.00 $301.74
April 2022: $1,233.00 $350.56
May 2022: $1,336.00 $428.82
June 2022: $1,439.00 $459.70
July 2022: $1,542.00 $641.27
August 2022: $1,645.00 $653.32
September 2022: $1,748.00 $617.92
October 2022: $1,851.00 $829.46
November 2022: $1,954.00 $1,003.01
December 2022: $2,057.00 $1,152.65
January 2023: $2,160.00 $1,221.22
February 2023: $2,263.00 $1,286.04
March 2023: $2,366.00 $1,392.45
April 2023: $2,469.00 $1,461.53
May 2023: $2,572.00 $1,779.13
June 2023: $2,675.00 1,729.60
July 2023: $2,778.00 $2,159.90

 

$100 Challenge account review

 
From the chart above, the red dot (line) indicates the current account value, compared to the blue line (plan). Our account is underperforming our goal. But it started improving and going up again. We will keep buying assets and monetize them once we accumulate enough shares.
 

June-July 2023 Overall Challenge account review

 
The chart below indicates our account value compared to the overall goal and plans to grow the $100 investment into a $75,000 portfolio. As of today, we are still at the beginning of our journey.

YEAR CONTRIBUTIONS $$ GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
Year 0: $100.00 $100.00 $100.00
Year 1: $1,300.00 $1,336.00 $459.70
Year 2: $2,500.00 $3,016.96 $2,159.90
Year 3: $3,700.00 $5,303.07  
Year 4: $4,900.00 $8,412.17  
Year 5: $6,100.00 $12,640.55  
Year 6: $7,300.00 $18,391.15  
Year 7: $8,500.00 $26,211.96  
Year 8: $9,700.00 $36,848.27  
Year 9: $10,900.00 $51,313.64  
Year 10: $12,100.00 $70,986.56  

 

$100 Challenge account review goal

 

June-July 2023 Challenge account Income

 

Total Invested in Stocks $1,561.83
Stocks Unrealized Profit $170.35
Stocks Realized Profit -$57.18
Strangles Income -$1,316.00
Spreads Income $193.00
Dividends Income $77.76
Deposits Total (lifetime) $2,700.00
Cash $838.58
Net-Liq $2,159.90

 

If you want to see what investments we take and what trades and strategies we will use to grow this small account, join our program today and grow your money. We engage in safe investments, select strategies to maximize winning trades and grow our portfolio. And you can do it too, today! We do not provide quick rich promises, gambling, or reckless strategies. We want our portfolio to grow steadily and preserve our capital while maximizing returns.
 

As a member, you will have access to the following features:
 

 

 




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