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Posted by Martin April 23, 2013
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Supper quicky note #4


A great article by Tim Iacono, a founder of the investment website ‘Iacono Research‘, providing market commentary and investment advisory services specializing in natural resources, was published recently in Seeking Alpha in regards to Gold.

Those who bought their GLD shares last fall are selling at steep losses.

This appears to be a classic case of not understanding what you own as most institutional investors and money managers who bought GLD late last year probably never really liked the idea of buying gold and, now, they just want out.

Presumably, many bought GLD on the recommendation of investment banks such as Goldman Sachs who, last fall, were predicting further gains for the yellow metal as the next round of Fed money printing got underway.

That didn’t work out the way investment banks thought it would.

So, here we are, a full week after the gold price plunged to almost $1,320 an ounce in panic selling and GLD investors continue to sell gold, many of them believing that they’re lucky to be able to get out now, at slightly higher prices than last week’s lows, making their realized losses a little less painful.

This is a classic example of how markets work and why an investor should stay calm and do not panic. Remember, if you pick a good stock, a good company, which pays dividends, has a solid dividend history, growth, makes money, you do not have to be worry about the attitude in the market. In case of Gold, this drop was a classic panic selling bringing a great opportunity to buy.

 


 

I also looked at the Fear & Greed chart (see below). Interestingly, the market mood was moving towards fear, but the S&P 500 doesn’t correspond to the market sentiment at all. Are we really seeing an exhaustion in the market? A potential lack of buyers? Who knows. This can also indicate that the market participants are just taking a break before more buying hits the market. The future will see, where we are heading.

Fear & Greed




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Posted by Martin April 23, 2013
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Supper quicky note #3


(JNJ) – a few minutes later, look what is going on with Johnson & Johnson company on a daily chart.

Is it just an error in my charting software or did we just saw a minicrash?

Check the chart of JNJ

JNJ

Click to enlarge

What do you think? Could you see a similar drop in your charting tool?

 




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Posted by Martin April 23, 2013
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Supper quicky note #2


(JNJ) – is Johnson and Johnson heading into a parabolic run up to crash later?
Although JNJ is excellent company with a wide moat and a great dividend payer, the recent trend is too close and similar to a parabolic uptrend. Trend like this always ends up with a crash. I would be however happy with it because I want to add more shares of JNJ to my portfolio.

Check the chart of JNJ

JNJ

Click to enlarge

Pay attention to a 5 year chart on the lower right corner which resembles an image of a parabolic run up. I may be wrong, but try to get ready in case to correction comes.

 




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Posted by Martin April 22, 2013
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Supper quicky note #1


Remember the market last week? All looked like we are going into a correction. I was anticipating it and hoping for it, since I wanted to add more shares to my current holdings. But, it didn’t materialized. Today the market reversed and marched up at earnings.

Last week everybody in media was freaking out what a bad earnings season we have and this week an optimism overruled the trend again. Another bump on the road up, though.

But nothing is lost. The market can create a lower high this time and then we will witness a trend reversal. So what to do now? I am sitting tight hoarding cash for the next major correction. The only exception was Gold (GLD) which I bought last week.


Once again I was able to beat the market last week. With gold and other stocks falling sharp I expected my account taking a blood bath, so I was quite surprised when I saw my account down only by -0.67% compared to S&P 500 which tanked by -2.11%. If this trend continues until the end of the year, I will have a very successful year.


If you want to see my trades and quick notes in real time (or almost in real time) check my Facebook Fan Page. I am posting my ideas there a lot faster than here.


My GLD trade from last week seems to be working well and I am seeing nice gains already (this was probably the reason for my account beating the market). Some analysts out there however say, that the gains in Gold may be temporary. I do not believe them, but we will see. If the gold market tanks further, I will buy more shares.


A massive wave of Asian buying of precious metals is emptying dealer shelves across the region. “I haven’t seen this (kind of) gold rush for over 20 years,” says the head of the HK Gold & Silver Exchange, adding that old-timers haven’t seen anything like this for 50 years.

 




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Posted by Martin April 21, 2013
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My inspiration in the last week #18

My inspiration in the last week #18

This week I would like to present the following interesting web sites and links.

I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

 

 
 




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Posted by Martin April 18, 2013
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Market outlook, trend still unchanged


Market Market slid again today and the “we-know-the-future” experts out there are competing among themselves who comes up with the best reason why. All of them are united however that the reason is a fear of the US economy slowing down after weak earnings reports.

I believe if you go out there and ask any average American how he or she feels about economy, all of them will tell you what those “I-hear-nothing-I-see-nothing” experts discovered just this morning. When I was browsing the internet, all discussions are full of post saying one thing – the economy isn’t good, companies aren’t hiring and macro data definitely do not match the growth of the market.

Recently my friend blogger Marvin was asking on his blog an interesting question in his post “Open Letter About Real Estate“. He was asking how increasing interest rates, which would hit us potentially in the near future, would affect people’s ability to purchase a house. When I was answering to his question with my rhetoric question-response I was thinking that with rising interest, we may see also our salary rising and that would offset, at least partially, the negative effect of higher interest rates.

His response struck me. He said: “…I certainly haven’t gotten a raise the past 2 years.”

That still indicates that the economy is fragile and companies very cautious in hiring and raising salaries. And this may take for a long time, because of artificial money pumping into the economy. I understand the reason – to support and encourage customer spending. But if people are not secured in their salaries and do not know what may come tomorrow, they will not spend. At least those savvy ones.

And that brings up the question, will the market continue in its fabulous bull trend, or will we see a long time anticipated correction? Is the trend over? Will the weak economic data finally open eyes to investors blindly jumping in the market at any bump on the road?

SPX

Click to enlarge

The metrics I usually watch, such as Chaikin Money Flow indicate the market still has money flowing in and ultimate oscillator indicates the market in somewhat oversold territory. The new low the market is forming is higher than the previous, so from this perspective I am seeing the trend unchanged and I would expect the trend to continue, unless something changes. For example the new high the market will create would be lower than the previous one. In that case we may witness a market reversal. It is not happening yet however.

Regards and happy trading!

Image courtesy of Zuzzuillo / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

 




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Posted by Guest April 17, 2013
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Record Gold Sale At The U.S. Mint


By: Kenneth Schortgen Jr.

US Mint

On April 17, the U.S. Mint reported a record 63500 ounces of gold being sold to the public in one day, despite central banks driving down the paper spot price by over 9% in the past week. This record one day sale brings total Mint sales for April to 140000 ounces, and is already twice the total amount of sales for the previous two months combined.

According to today’s data from the US Mint, a record 63,500 ounces, or a whopping 2 tons, of gold were reported sold on April 17th alone, bringing the total sales for the month to a whopping 147,000 ounces or more than the previous two months combined with just half of the month gone. – U.S. Mint via Zerohedge

The disparity between the spot price, and the physical price of gold, proves that the disconnect is official, and paper no longer represents true value in the precious metal markets. While central banks dumped 500 tons of paper gold on Friday, leading to a spot price drop of more than 9%, most physical gold and silver dealers like Kitco and SQ Metals were selling out of stock very quickly as investors and collectors rejoiced in the falling prices.

Besides the U.S., Asian central banks and investors are purchasing physical gold in high volume due to the price drop. Australia, China, and Japan all saw daily sales of precious metals nearly doubled from their biggest dealers, and shortages were occurring for many reputable online retailers.

As Western central banks are forced to short or sell paper gold in the markets to cover margin calls on other investments, the additional volume is quickly being bought up in the physical markets, with the U.S. Mint alone selling an all-time one day record of 63500 ounces.

This post was originally published at Examiner.com




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Posted by Martin April 17, 2013
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Trade adjustment – Gold (GLD) addition #2

Trade adjustment - Gold (GLD) addition #2

I am posting this trade a few days later than when I actually opened it. If you want to see my trades earlier, you can do so on my Facebook page, where I typically post my trade at the same time when it happens.

Yesterday I added a few shares of GLD into my portfolio as Gold suffered a huge sell off. Some analysts call it the biggest sell off in Gold history. Although many of them predict further drop in price of the yellow metal, I decided to take a trailing buy price approach. Last Friday I entered a conditional order, which didn’t materialized and on Monday I lowered the price. The trigger fired yesterday and I bought 7 shares of GLD. You can see the trade history on my Facebook.

I wrote in my older posts and on Facebook that I believe that this sell off is an overreaction of investors once again, caused by panic and stop loss triggers.

I added shares to my portfolio:

04/16/2013 09:44:52 Bought 7 GLD @ 134.43

If the stock continues falling as is predicted by some, I will be adding more shares.




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Posted by Martin April 15, 2013
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Gold Sank Faster Than Titanic. Are You Panicking?


Ship WreckToday’s trading was fascinating. My account was red and full of blood as never before. A true blood in the streets. A massacre. It was not only Gold which sank deeper than on Friday on a lot larger volume than on Friday, but the entire market followed. If you follow my Facebook fan page, I posted that the volume would increase by the end of the day. And sure enough, it happened. It was an indication that selling pressure increased and gained more speed. And that speed may last for extended period of time than just Friday or today.

Are we done with selling? Maybe yes, maybe not. However, last Friday I already considered this drop in Gold as a great opportunity to buy more shares. I opened a new conditional order to buy 6 shares if the stock rose at or above $147.40 a share with a limit at $147.40 a share.

Sell offToday the stock fell down with a huge gap. I think it is now even better opportunity to add more shares at a cheaper price. So today I lowered my conditional order to $134.43 a share. This price allows me to buy 7 shares instead of 6 as originally planned.

But let’s go to my question. If you are investing into gold, are you panicking?

Out there, there are many analysts, prognosticators, forecasters, soothsayers, astrologers, fortunetellers, predictors, wizards, gurus, so-sayers, and who knows who else telling you that they told you so, and that Gold is doomed to crash, and it will go down to $370 an ounce, and it will take years to recover, and gold is not an asset, and gold has no value, and it shouldn’t be in your portfolio, and it will go to 1200 an ounce (120 a share of GLD) and so on.

I do not know what about you, but this remains me the same euphoria six or so months ago when those so called professionals were challenging themselves in predictions to which heights gold will go. Do you remember bank analysts predicting gold ending at $2000 an ounce by the end of 2012, $3000 by the end of 2013 and I have even seen predictions of gold reaching $10,000 an ounce in the near future.

Does this mania sound familiar to you?

Here is how I see it

Let me know if I am wrong, but we may agree on that investors invest into gold, because they consider gold a safe haven. They want to preserve value in bad times in case of disasters in financial markets or expectation of high inflation, weakening dollar or stock market not performing. Am I correct?

GoldIn the past I observed that gold usually went in the opposite direction than the dollar and in many cases in the opposite direction of the stock market.

I remember once, a few years ago an adviser who was administering our company 401k plans told us how we should keep our portfolios balanced. If we invested in stocks and money market funds for example, and we had a set allocation in those stocks what would you do to keep it always balanced?

Well, you would be trimming those stocks (selling portion of your holdings) which are running high and invest proceedings and new contributions into the money market or less performing stocks. As the cycle changes and the stocks which were originally performing are now correcting, you start trimming your money market funds or previously lacking stocks, which are now running high and moving your proceedings back to the now lacking stocks.

Do you get the point? Let me repeat it. You have a stock A and stock B. You always want 50% allocation in each. If stock A runs high, so your allocation changes to 55% and 45% in the stock B, you sell 5% of the stock A and buy 5% of the stock B to keep it allocated per your original plan. When the cycle changes and the stock B starts running high, you start doing the same in reversed manner.

BUYThese days, stocks were running high and gold was lacking. Today’s gold and stock sell off may be a sign of a trend reversal in the stock market. It was hard to find stocks in which you would be willing to invest and pay a fair price without overpaying. But gold was falling and providing buying opportunity. Now we may see the reversal. Gold rising and stocks falling. I do not want to be a doomsayer, but I think, stocks deserve correction the same way as we are seeing in GLD these days, don’t you think?

At the same time, I still believe, that in long time horizon the dollar will be losing value as it has ever was and gold will counter this trend. In my opinion the dollar is growing because of Euro and China’s troubles. Also the FED’s policy will have a negative impact to the dollar in the future and the bubble (dollar, bonds) will burst once again.

These are the reasons why I am buying GLD these days and take the blood on the streets as a great opportunity. What about you?

Image courtesy of Boykung, Stuart Miles, sakhorn38 / FreeDigitalPhotos.net




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Posted by Martin April 14, 2013
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My inspiration in the last week #17

My inspiration in the last week #17

This week I would like to present the following interesting web sites and links.

I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

 

 
 




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