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Posted by Martin January 16, 2013
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The power of dividends


Today I sold my stake in Full Circle Capital (FULL) because I didn’t like the outlook of this company and I think, there is a potential for a dividend cut. In short, the FULL portfolio seems not supporting today’s dividend rate and the company pays more in dividends than it brings in.

So I sold the stock @7.51 a share and made $8.96 (commission excluded). That sounds like a bad trade, right? If I include commissions I actually lost money. If I include inflation for almost a year period of holding this stock, I lost even more money, right?

Well, the whole story is in dividends and that’s why I really like investing into dividend stocks. Over the period of holding this stock I received $98.56 in dividends. If I use those dividends to offset my cost basis of the stock, my profit then was $107.52 or 11.20%.

I think, that wasn’t a bad trade, wasn’t it?

So what to buy in lieu of FULL?

I have two potential candidates to buy. One is NGLS I wrote about in my previous post and the second is PSEC which has a lot better quality portfolio than FULL and thus safer dividend payout. Right now I am only waiting for a good entry price. Both stocks were in upward move, so I think it will be worth to wait for the first pull back to buy.

NGLS is right below 200 day MA, so before it breaks through, it will most likely retreat a bit and then I will buy.

PSEC already had that pullback about a week ago and then broke through the 200 day MA, but that break thru looks somewhat weak to me and the stock may pull back again. The price action looks like a consolidation to me, so I will wait for some move, if the stock moves up I will buy, if it moves down, I will wait for the price to drop further down and buy then.




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Posted by Martin January 15, 2013
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Replacing FULL with NGLS


I do not have much to say, I just am not comfortable anymore holding Full Circle Capital (FULL). Although I liked monthly payment I didn’t like recent price action of the company, rumors of dividend cut, writing (issuing a new public offering) of new shares and thus diluting existing shareholders’ stake.

So I did little research trying to find some data about FULL because of the rumor about possible dividend cut. I also contacted FULL, investor’s department with questions and received no response.

Based on the information I could find on the internet my uncomfortable feeling of holding this stock increased. That’s why I decided to dump FULL and replace it with NGLS. It pays lower dividend, but still high enough (as of this writing it was 6.40%), the 5 yr average dividend growth 30.38%, 5 years of consecutive dividend increase, they are paying dividends since 2007 and increased the dividend recently.




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Posted by Martin January 13, 2013
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My inspiration in last week #5


I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

This week I found the following interesting posts:

Best US Dividend Stocks for 2013The Dividend Guy

Dividend Income ProjectionDividend Growth Machine

6 Stocks Expected to Grow Their Dividends in 2013Dividend Growth Stocks

Slow is Smooth & Smooth is FastBrick By Brick Investing

Microsoft Dividend Stock AnalysisDividend Growth Stock Investing

Realty Income – This Monthly Dividend Company Has Years Of Growth Ahead Of ItSeeking Alpha

Determining Dividend Growth Rate of Your PortfolioPassive Income Pursuit




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Posted by Martin January 10, 2013
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New trade – AT&T (T)


As I wrote in my previous post I am replacing ABT with AT&T due to overall drop in dividend payout receiving from ABT.

01/10/2013 09:31:41 Bought 32 T @ 34.41

Total shares held as of today: 32
Estimated annual dividend: $57.6
Consecutive Dividend Increase: 8 years
Dividend yield today: 5.26%
Dividend 5yr Growth: 5.09%
Dividend paid since: 1881




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Posted by Martin January 10, 2013
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New trade – TASER International Inc (TASR) covered call


Another trade – covered call I decided to add to my portfolio. TASER International, Inc. develops, manufactures, and sells electronic control devices (ECD) for use in the law enforcement, military, corrections, private security, and personal defense markets. Analysts are bullish on this stock with the target from $10 – $11 per share. The stock is slowly marching toward that mark. With all the gun-talks and anti-gun talks this company benefits from the overall mess.

01/10/2013 10:33:51 Bought 100 TASR @ 9.37
01/10/2013 10:33:51 Sold 1 TASR Mar 16 2013 10.0 Call @ 0.5

Total trade: $887.00
Commissions: $8.78
Total NET trade: $895.78

Option assignment: $1000.00
Option assignment fee: $19.00
Expected proceeds: $981.00

Expected NET gain: $85.22
Expected ROI: 9.51%




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Posted by Martin January 09, 2013
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Replacing ABT with AT&T (T)

Replacing ABT with AT&T (T)

For the reasons I wrote in my previous article I am replacing Abbott with AT&T stock. This stock paid dividends since 1881 and it has a history of 8 years of increasing the dividend. Currently the stock is trading below 200 day MA and it pulled back due to ex-dividend date which was today (Jan-08, 2013). The company increased its dividend recently.

The stock created a corrective pattern and thus I am initiating a first buy and I opened a contingency order for tomorrow morning. If the stock rises above 34.70 I will open a limit order of 34.74 per share to buy 31 shares of this stock.

If the trade executes tomorrow, I will own 31 shares of AT&T which will bring me $55.8 annual dividend instead of $19.04 dividend provided by ABT.

If the stock surpasses the limit price, the order will not execute and I will continue waiting for next pullback.

AT&T

The daily chart above indicates the price action of AT&T. We are below 200 day MA, dropping back down (and the stock may drop even further) and getting close to the 3 year long term trend support line (the thick green line). Short term indicators such as CMF, MACD indicates rising interest in the stock, the ultimate oscillator is in overbought, which may indicate further drop of price.

AT&T 3 year chart

The 3 year chart show the price at the support line (the thick green line) bouncing off of the lower standard deviation Bollinger Band while staying slightly above 50 day MA (which is very positive indicator). However money flow CMF indicates heavy selling during this period. MACD seems to be slowing down its downward move and may create a divergence (which however may fail) and Ultimate oscillator is neutral.

AT&T has a dividend rate at $1.80 (5.00 % yield), 5-year annual dividend yield growth 4.8% and consecutive dividend increase for 8 years. The stock seems to be overvalued, however I am willing to initiate the trade if the price meet my trigger or wait for it if it doesn’t.

As far as ABT, I may get back to this stock and buy those shares back when I will be able to see and know more about this stock.




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Posted by Martin January 08, 2013
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Unloading ABBV from my portfolio, what about Abbott?


I was looking for information about ABBV and ABT to find out whether to keep these stocks or get rid of them. It was very difficult to find anything which would help me to make the decision. Keep the stocks or not? That’s the question.

Mostly I used information about ABBV and ABT from Morningstar web site since today they updated their outlook. The Morningstar analysts like ABBV over ABT. But still their favorable outlook for ABBV is only until roughly 2015 or 2016. Then Humira drug will be over and who knows what would happen next.

I am a bit confused and I do not like the uncertainty in regards to ABBV as a long term investment.

The next, in my opinion negative point is the current declared dividend. Prior to company spinoff the dividend rate for ABBV was $1.6 a share. Today ABBV announced a new dividend at 40 cents a share. If my calculator is correct, it translates into a yield of 1.2%. With no history, no certainty limited data, this stock no longer meets my dividend growth criteria and I decided to unload shares of this stock from my TD portfolio and I will be doing the same in my ROTH IRA account.

What about ABT?

Unfortunately I have the same dilemma with Abbott. After the spinoff this stock also no longer meets my criteria. The Morningstar outlook is somewhat confusing. They didn’t like what was left in Abbott after the company split. They claim that it was actually the Humira drug which generated income and covered Abbott’s loses in its other segments. However, Morningstar still believes Abbott will be able to consolidate and provide annual growth of around 4.8%.

Does it make sense holding ABT?

As a dividend investor I am actually disappointed with the outcome of this spinoff. The new dividend yield is now 1.62%, way below my requirements. Will the company be able raising dividends to reach pre-spinoff level? And how long will that take to reach previous levels? Does it make sense to lock my money in a company paying me only 20$ a year, while I can relocate to another company which will pay me a lot more?

A simple comparison:
I currently hold 15 shares of MCD, total market value around 1364.90 dollars and receiving $46.20 annual dividend.
With the new ABT I would hold 34 shares, total market value 1133.90 dollars and receiving $19.04 annual dividend.

I am interested in rising dividends and secure dividend income stream. Abbott is no longer providing me with such income. Therefore I believe there is time to sell this stock and replace it with a different company.

What do you think, sell or hold?




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Posted by Martin January 08, 2013
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New trade – Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (KOG) covered call

New trade - Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (KOG) covered call

Another company I decided to add to my options portfolio is Kodiak Oil & Gas Corporation. Kodiak is focused on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States. Kodiak now looks to develop its robust portfolio of assets. The energy company plans to grow production 80% year over year during the interim (Source: Motley Fools). There are 18 brokers following this stock and the mean price target is is at 11.39, with high target at $13 a share. Credit Suisse, The Street, Global Hunter Securities, Wunderlich, and Canaccord Genuity are bullish on the stock.

The company achieved over 250% revenue growth in FY2012 and analysts expect almost 100% sales increases in FY2013. KOG has a minuscule five year projected PEG (.40). Earnings per share more than quadrupled from FY2011. Earnings are project to rise another 75% in FY2013 by analysts. The stock is priced at less than 13x forward earnings, a discount to its five year average (16.7) (Source: Seeking Alpha).

KOG

Since the stock has a bullish expectation with a great growth potential and it is a buy at $9 a share I decided to play this stock as a covered call – total return strategy (meaning that I want the stock to be called away).




01/08/2013 09:30:42 Bought 100 KOG @ 9.41
01/08/2013 09:30:42 Sold 1 KOG Mar 16 2013 10.0 Call @ 0.52

Total trade: $889
Commissions: $8.78
Total NET trade: $897.78

Option assignment: $1000.00
Option assignment fee: $19.00
Expected proceeds: $981.00

Expected NET gain: $83.22
Expected ROI: 9.27%




There are a few outcomes with this stock. I am taking March 16, 2013 expiration as part of my “covered call ladder” (and I could get a lot better premium with max 68 day expiration (time) I am willing to sell) and that can bring some issues or possible outcomes:

  1. The stock will slowly grow and chop around $10 a share and it will be called away. In that case I will realize above spelled ROI. Since I like this stock, I will most likely repeat the process and buy-write another trade after this one will be over.
  2. The stock won’t rise above $10 a share. but stays above my break even point. In that case the option call expires worthless, I’ll keep the stock and a premium and sell a new $10 option for the next period. I will repeat this process as long as the stock is called away.
  3. The stock will skyrocket and surpass quickly the current strike price and lands at 12 or even 13 dollars a share during the end of January or February 2013. If that happens I want to participate on that growth. In that case I would buy-write another contract with higher strikes. I will continue doing this as long as the stock will be rising.
  4. The stock will suffer and falls too deep before expiration. In that case I will evaluate a trade repair strategy similar to one I described for my DMD trade (see My DMD covered call and fiscal cliff? post). I might be selling another lower strike OTM covered call before I sell deep ITM covered call to get rid of this trade break even or with a small gain.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin January 07, 2013
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My plans for managing cash in my TD account

My plans for managing cash in my TD account

Recently I had to change my thinking about how I wanted to manage cash in my TD account and potentially in my all accounts. The question was, do I want to use all my cash (be always 100% invested) or keep some cash on side for potential purchases if an opportunity shows up.

During my investing/trading career I always was 100% invested and whenever I contributed some cash into my account I invested it immediately. The result was that fees and commissions almost killed me down, since I was depositing small amounts of cash. Sometimes I deposited $50 or 100 dollars and invested that cash immediately. If you invest $50 and you pay $9.95 commission you are down 20% right away and you have to make 40% just to break even.

So I changed my cash strategy and I decided that I would only invest into commission free mutual funds. Another problem rose. Many mutual funds required large initial investment, their return was mediocre and in many occasions their expense ratios were way above 1.0, some even exceeded 2.0. But I wanted dividend paying stocks and not mutual funds, many of them paying no dividend or very little. More on top of that if I wanted to sell a portion of my mutual funds holdings and buy a dividend paying stock I had to wait at least 180 day to avoid a redemption fee. Gosh, I didn’t like this either.

So I changed my strategy once again. This time I decided that I would invest min 800 dollars lot into dividend paying stocks or use that amount for options trading. This strategy worked and I was saving cash and using margin to boost my portfolio. But then a great opportunity to buy a great dividend paying stock showed up right after I purchased a stock and suddenly I had no cash. Next I came across a great put selling trade with great premium and great profit potential and I had no cash. Next time the whole market went down and I had no cash for my maintenance and I started receiving margin calls.

Although I saw great results in building my portfolio fast, I wasn’t satisfied with lack of money to invest when a great opportunity presented itself.

There were a few people who inspired me to change my thinking about cash in my account. It was a manager of my 401k account who once held a training in our company and he said that he was always saving some amount of cash in his own 401k for new opportunities and if they arrived he just moved a portion from his cash equivalent into that new investment. Another investor inspiring me was Teddi Knight who explained on her web her investing strategy. I realized that this is what I wanted, what I liked. Holding enough cash will provide me with peace of mind.

With enough cash, I will be able to buy any dividend stock at the best price for me, at the time I want to buy and not at the time I have money available.

With enough money in my account I can be selling cash covered puts anytime I want and as many contracts as I want and that cash will serve as a collateral.

The third person was Dividend Mantra and his article Holding Vs. Deploying Cash who actually made me think about my cash strategy deeper and write it down.

So what I want to do with my cash in my TD account? My plan is to raise cash to 30% of my entire portfolio. I do not have such cash available yet, so I need to save. I also want to invest into dividend paying stocks, sell covered calls and puts. Well, these two things do not go together. So I needed a strategy of how and when to build the cash reserve and when to invest.

Since I wanted to be buying stocks when the market and stocks are falling I decided that the best way to build a cash reserve would be when the market is growing and invest when the market and stocks are falling. That makes sense, doesn’t it? Look at the chart below. When do you want to be buying stocks?

When to buy stocks?

I want to be buying any time the stock pulls down. Apparently many retail investors are buying at the stock’s high and then panicking when the stock pulls down and they happen to sell when the stock is down. Believe me, they do it, because I was doing it as well. Many times I bought a stock which turned down either right away after I purchased it (as if the Mr. Market was laughing at me) and then, since I was using a stop loss order I got stopped out on its way down. Don’t get fooled about the uptrend shown on that chart. It can be easily a multi-year chart. So where do you want to be buying? At the green arrows or the red ones?

Personally, I want to be buying at the green arrows.

A great example can be a stock (ETF) I want to add to my portfolio SDY. See the chart below.

Buying stocks - SDY example

  1. I noticed SDY stock at this point, when I decided to add it to my portfolio. However, at this point I saw SDY on its way up. Would you buy at this point? If I bought at this point, I would see some growth.
  2. Buying at the point #2 would also be buying too high in my opinion. No stock rises continuously up. After some growth, it always pull back or goes sideway. And that was what I was waiting for. If I bought at the point #1 or #2 the next pull back would keep me locked at loss. Once I heard do not buy at prices where retail investors are buying, buy where pros are buying.
  3. At the point #3 (actually the day before) the price dropped low enough for me to open a buy order. But, the problem was that I didn’t have free cash in my account. This is the example why I decided to keep 30% cash in my account. The first black line indicates where my buy order would be (if the stock rises at or above this line I would buy)… if I had free cash.
  4. I still was willing to buy at this point and I finally had enough cash to buy. The price however gapped up too much, so the order didn’t fill. I will be waiting for another opportunity.

This is an example of why I believe it is worth waiting for your price. In a very long investment horizon this may not seem significant, but I believe, buying at retreats will save you cash and allow you buying more shares in the first place.

I read a few web sites and most of the value and dividend investors like to wait for sell off to buy cheap stocks. There is another web site I like to watch. It is a CNN Money Fear & Greed Index. Waiting for the sell off? Then lets wait for the market and investors being moved by fear to start buying. As of this writing the market is in greed mood.

Fear & Greed

The chart above shows the index at 80 level indicating extreme greed and extreme optimism. Although I do not take it as a dogma I do not want to be buying stocks at this point unless they show correction, drop in price, consolidation or any similar price action which will be favorable to add more shares. As long as the index starts dropping, it will be time to look for buying opportunities. During these levels or rising I want to be saving cash, write covered calls or sell puts.

Happy trading!




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Posted by MartZee January 06, 2013
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My inspiration in last week #4


I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

This week I found the following interesting posts:

New Purchase – KO, LINE / Sale – BWPCompounding Income

Milestone Reached – $300 Month in DividendsFI Fighter

Market Timing System – Trading Market Direction Using The VIX IndexFully Informed

Book Review: Get Rich with Dividends Dividend Growth Machine

GLD: Nearing A Potential BottomSeeking Alpha

Successful Investors Eliminate Debt!Brick By Brick Investing




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