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Posted by Martin October 26, 2011
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Will a write off of Greek debt solve its problems?


The leaders of EU are debating how to bankrupt Greece effectively and without a sudden shock. They are proposing that banks should write off 60% of Greek debt, but bankers are willing to accept only 40%. But will this write off solve Greek problem?

Partially. It would definitely help Greece to balance their budget, but it doesn’t solve it. Greece will still be lacking money to finance their mandatory expenses and with bankruptcy who will be willing to lend them more money? So even with writing off its current debt, the country will still struggle to get money to finance its bureaucracy, social expenses, healthcare, etc. (what a socialism in there!).




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Posted by Martin October 26, 2011
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Market up 1% in the morning on hopes for European “comprehensive” plan


This morning I checked the premarket data to see what is driving or will be driving the market in the morning. And I found an article on CNN Stocks: Optimistic about Europe … for now.

So investors are optimistic this morning about Europe leaders who are going to meet today and later on they should announce a “comprehensive plan”.

Strong words. Really.

European government heads will be meeting Wednesday, after pledging to unveil a comprehensive plan to tackle the region’s debt crisis.

An official announcement isn’t expected until later in the day.

“We all expect the plan is going to happen. The question is — is it really going to be big enough to make a dent?” said Mark Lamkin, founder and president of Lamkin Wealth Management in Louisville, KY

What do you think this plan would be about? What are those optimistic investors expecting? Are they that naive to think that the leaders meet and suddenly the debt disappear?

All they come up with is providing guarantees to irresponsible banks who were buying bad bonds (and possibly knowing it) and now they ask the Governments for bailout, but who will be those paying? You guess it, the tax payers.

And I cannot belief that there are some investors out there who believe in this and are optimistic about it.




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Posted by Martin October 24, 2011
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SPX up again! Is it a buy opportunity?

SPX up again! Is it a buy opportunity?

Many investors may be celebrating and cheering up the market’s performance these days. The economic data are good looking, Eurozone is close to a debt solution, the market is rising, all is good! Buy, buy, buy…

You may be hearing that or something similar today. But is everything really that bright as it looks?

Check the chart below and answer yourself a question, “Will you be willing to be buying when the market is approaching to 200 day SMA and a major resistance level nearby?”

S&P
Enlarge the chart

The last rally was definitely impressive, but it was happening without any corrections on the way. The Eurozone is noway close to a solution and they still may be facing a major issues ahead. The Euro leaders are just kicking the can down the street (mainly waiting for their banks be ready for Greek bankruptcy) and Europe is still in a big trouble although now it may appear that we are going out of the forest. Not even close to it.

We are also facing to a huge overhead supply:

S&P
Enlarge the chart

All those people who bought stocks at those levels in the green oval are eager to start selling when they break even to recover their loses. Considering similarities in the market movements and cycles it moves within, we may be turning down to correct this rally.

And that will create a new lower high. A great opportunity to short the market, since we still are in a bearish correction.

Check the similarities between 2008 and today (the upper chart is 2011, the lower is 2008):

S&P
Enlarge the chart

In 2007 – 2008 the market had a nice strong rally, which at the end of December 2007 corrected sharply down. Then we went through a side way consolidation and rallied back up to 200 day SMA. Same as today. But then the market collapsed again. Well later on it crashed totally and I think we will not go that far down as in 2008, but we still may see the sharp correction down (see blue line). Note even similar over shots thru the supports on both charts (circled).

Of course, anything is possible in the market and it may act totally different today, but considering the overhead supply waiting for the chance to get out, unsolved European debt crisis, not so good US data, slowing down in China (plus their fraudulent accounting), I think we are still heading down.

My previous timing wasn’t that correct and I took a few losses in shorting SPY, but now I am waiting for the market to reverse into correction to buy puts on SPY once again. This correcting leg will be crucial, because it may be a beginning of the new bull trend if we create a higher low pivot this time.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 22, 2011
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Stocks up again on earnings


Last week I didn’t have time for updating my web site. There are only two facts:

1) The market was rising again, this time on earnings
2) I am no longer strongly convinced that the market will go down.

That means I will stay aside a bit in regards to trading SPY. We may go up to re-test 200 day SMA. This may be a beginning of a new bullish trend. But everything may be the right opposite. We do not have sure signal on which way the market wants to go.

Recently, it was literally knocking on the resistance level at $122.7 level and on Friday it broke thru. The law of technical analysis says that as many times the trend re-test the resistance or support as likely it will break it. We tested this level of resistance two times. The market hold at the highs amid bad news from Europe and the US economy. Now it finally broke up amid good news from retailers. But will this hold or is it just a bull trap? We will see in upcoming weeks if the market continues up, or turns down and retest its lows.

Happy Trading

Are you interested in my trades? See Exited trades here.
See my holdings and account value here.




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Posted by Martin October 12, 2011
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Stock advance on Europe hopes

Stock advance on Europe hopes

Source CNN Money

Dow

A broad rally lost steam during the final minutes of trading, but stocks still ended sharply higher Wednesday as investors welcomed the latest plan to recapitalize European banks.

“We’re continuing to see a shift in investor sentiment,” said Art Hogan, managing director at Lazard Capital Markets. “Last week, it seemed like the sky was falling and there was no end in sight. Now, there’s a perception that Europe will come up with a TARP-like backstop for European banks.”

European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso said Wednesday that policymakers need to act immediately to resolve the long-running crisis. Barroso also said that banks that do not satisfy capital requirements should be barred from paying out dividends and bonuses.

“We still don’t have a concrete plan, but it seems like officials have more of a sense of urgency and are talking about credible solutions, which is exactly what the market needs,” said Hogan.

Stocks have been climbing since the start of the month as hopes for a solution to Europe’s debt crisis continue to grow.

Wednesday’s advance was the sixth out of the last seven days for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and fifth for the Dow. The three major indexes are up between 8% and 11% since Oct. 3, when stocks hit their lowest levels in more than a year.

Every development overseas is getting investors’ front-and-center attention. More than 80% of the experts surveyed by CNNMoney agree that debt problems overseas are the most challenging hurdle for the market.
Read More




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Posted by Martin October 11, 2011
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Will the market skyrocket or dive?


We have had an impressive re-bound these days, but is this rally sustainable? The market is already showing a sign of weakness. Today’s trading is forming a shooting star candle (we are not done yet, so by the end of the session all can be different). The volume is rising and we seem to be exhausted. However, a couple of next days will show.

What’s happening today? Well, the European debt crisis hasn’t been solved and so far we have seen a bunch of promises and hopes out there. I still think that European leaders are preparing Greece for default, so it won’t hurt too much. It will hurt, but not big banks, but tax payers who will pay for it. And thus we are still heading into another decline.

But I am not speaking about decline in this short term, which will be a correction of this rally. Well, the question would be how deep we will go. Since this rally is quite extended it may not be a deep decline. And if the decline will not be that deep, then yes, we may be seeing a trend reversal. But if the European crisis shows up back in its natural and naked version (so not “breaded” in the Sarkozy and Merkel’s crap) we may see a huge drop although technicals are now somewhat positive.

The US growth is nothing extraordinary too, so as earnings kick in, we may see some surprises out there. I wish to be wrong, so let’s wait for the next.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 10, 2011
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Is the market rebounding?


Today’s trading, although based on hopes, could be read as a reversal approach. We broke significantly above 50 day MA. The volume was a bit weak, but still, the rally can count as a breakout. The question is whether it will mark a rally attempt and we are ending the bearish trend or this would be just a bull trap.

This rally is now overextended and we will see a pull back. The question is, how deep such pull back will be. We can start sliding back down, or we can be witnessing a slow reversal in trend back to bullish trend.

Although I believe, that the market rallied on phantom data we have been hearing for months and no solution at sight. Greece will default although not yet, but it will happen and that will affect the US as well, so we have a big pressure in front of us.

Thus today I closed some positions for profit (some for a small loss) and now I will be waiting for the next move. I might play the pullback as well.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 10, 2011
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Here we go again, hopes, pledges and promises


Market is growing again. On hopes, promises and pledges. A big bang is close, when those idiots in the market realize, that these are just plain promises which cannot be accomplished without hard and merciless changes or cuts.

While talk of a strategy is encouraging, the lack of details is keeping investors and markets on edge.

“There is still a healthy bill of skepticism because we’ve been here before — many times before,”said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets in London. “All Merkel and Sarkozy have done is reiterated their statements from earlier and kicked the can down to Cannes.” Investors have been quick to react to headlines concerning Europe’s debt crisis.

“Dexia passed the stress test earlier this summer with flying colors, yet here we are now, three months later, and it needs a bailout,” said Hewson. “I think that begs the question as to whether Dexia is a special case or if it’s one in a long line of other bailouts.

Well, I closed my puts on SPY and now, let’s wait for this bubble to burst.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 07, 2011
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Unbelievable movement of the market


I am surprised what moves the market today. When you look at all data coming out of Europe and the US, one cannot believe this market is rising. Well, it is happening (maybe today I should say it was happening, since I think we are at reversal). I swallowed my pride, sold my SPY puts with a loss and move on. Since I believe the market is pointing down I replaced the puts with new SPY put holdings with higher strike price.

Next time, I have to respond quicker then I did this time and didn’t exit fast enough.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 05, 2011
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Stocks rise on hopes for European banks


In the article on Yahoo.com “Stocks rise on hopes for European banks” I have found a following comment from a user named Kristen:

Last night, John Moulton, in an interview on the news said that the EU has no real plan to shore up the debt crisis & in essence, US traders will believe what they want. Also on the hiring side for the service sector hiring is increasing in some areas to get ready for the holidays – by January they will be right back in line like everyone else. Short term fixes in hiring & throwing good money to fix problems for the short term will only leave us like John Mouton said worse off later on. Somewhere, there is going to be a fall.

Well, what else to say? 100% true.
From the technical perspective, the market (SPY) was oversold and needed a correction, however, it still is a bearish correction on the way down.

Happy Trading!




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