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Posted by Martin December 06, 2023
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Why some investors say dividends are irrelevant?

Some investors argue that dividends are irrelevant because they believe a company’s value is determined by its overall financial health and future growth prospects rather than its dividend payouts. In this view, investors may prefer companies that reinvest profits for expansion or share buybacks, potentially leading to higher stock prices. Additionally, in a tax-efficient portfolio, investors might prefer capital appreciation over regular dividend income. It ultimately depends on an investor’s strategy and preferences.


The total return of a stock includes both capital appreciation (increase in stock price) and dividends. Historically, growth stocks have often shown higher capital appreciation, while dividend stocks provide income through regular dividend payments.

The choice between dividend and growth stocks depends on an investor’s preferences and investment goals. Some investors may prioritize current income and prefer dividend stocks, while others seeking capital appreciation may lean towards growth stocks. Diversification across both types of stocks is also a common strategy to balance income and growth potential in a portfolio.

But studies show that dividends help stocks outperform the market better than the growth stocks, is that correct?

Research studies have indeed suggested that, over certain periods, dividend-paying stocks have outperformed non-dividend-paying stocks. Dividend stocks are often considered more stable and less volatile, providing a steady income stream for investors. The reinvestment of dividends can contribute significantly to the total return of an investment over the long term.

However, it’s important to note that the performance of dividend stocks relative to growth stocks can vary depending on market conditions, economic cycles, and individual company factors. Additionally, some investors may prefer growth stocks for their potential for higher capital appreciation, especially in periods of economic expansion.

In investment, there is no one-size-fits-all approach, and the choice between dividend and growth stocks depends on an investor’s goals, risk tolerance, and overall portfolio strategy.


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Posted by Martin December 05, 2023
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Mastering Risk: A Guide to Proper Risk Management When Selling Options in a Margin Account

Selling options in a margin account can be a lucrative strategy for experienced investors, but it comes with inherent risks that demand careful consideration. To navigate these waters successfully, it’s crucial to implement a robust risk management plan. In this blog post, we’ll delve into the key principles of proper risk management when selling options in a margin account.


Understanding Selling Options in a Margin Account


Before we delve into risk management strategies, let’s briefly review the basics. Selling options involves writing (creating) contracts that give the buyer the right to buy (call option) or sell (put option) a security at a predetermined price before a specified expiration date. A margin account allows traders to borrow funds to increase their buying power, providing the potential for higher returns but also amplifying potential losses.


Risk Management Strategies


Diversification and Position Sizing:


  • Spread your risk by diversifying your option positions across different underlying assets and industries. Avoid concentrating too heavily in one sector to reduce the impact of adverse market movements.
  • Carefully determine the size of each position based on your overall portfolio size and risk tolerance. Avoid overcommitting to a single trade, as this can magnify losses.


Setting Realistic Profit and Loss Targets:


  • Define your profit and loss targets before entering a trade. Knowing when to take profits and cut losses is essential for long-term success.
  • Use risk-reward ratios to guide your decision-making. A common approach is aiming for a reward that is at least twice the risk in each trade.


Utilizing Stop-Loss Orders:


  • Implement stop-loss orders to automatically exit a trade if the position reaches a predetermined loss threshold. This can help prevent substantial losses during volatile market conditions.
  • Adjust stop-loss levels based on changing market conditions and the progression of the trade.


Monitoring Implied Volatility:


  • Keep a close eye on implied volatility, as it directly influences option prices. Elevated volatility can increase option premiums, providing better selling opportunities.
  • Adjust your strategies in response to changes in implied volatility, and be cautious about entering positions during periods of extreme volatility.


Regular Portfolio Reviews:


  • Conduct regular reviews of your options portfolio to assess its overall risk exposure. Rebalance positions if necessary to maintain a well-rounded and manageable risk profile.
  • Stay informed about market trends, economic indicators, and upcoming events that could impact your positions.


Risk Assessments and Stress Testing:


  • Periodically assess the potential impact of adverse market scenarios on your portfolio. Stress testing helps identify vulnerabilities and allows for adjustments to mitigate risk.
  • Be prepared to adjust your strategies based on changing market conditions, economic indicators, and global events.




Selling options in a margin account offers the potential for attractive returns, but it’s not without its challenges. Implementing proper risk management is the key to navigating the complexities of options trading successfully. By diversifying, setting realistic targets, using stop-loss orders, monitoring volatility, conducting regular portfolio reviews, and stress testing your positions, you can significantly enhance your ability to manage risk effectively. Remember, discipline and diligence are paramount when engaging in options trading, and a well-thought-out risk management plan can be your guide to long-term success.


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Posted by Martin December 04, 2023
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Opinion: S&P 500 Poised for All-Time High by End of 2023

As we navigate through the complexities of the current economic landscape, several compelling factors point towards a potential surge in the S&P 500, propelling it to new all-time highs by the close of 2023. Here are strong arguments supporting this optimistic outlook:

S&P 500


Economic Recovery Momentum:


The global economy is on a robust recovery trajectory post the pandemic-induced downturn. Unprecedented fiscal stimulus measures and central bank interventions have injected vitality into various sectors. With economies reopening and consumer confidence rebounding, corporate earnings are set to soar, providing a solid foundation for stock market growth.


Inflation Dynamics:


While concerns about inflation have been circulating, it’s crucial to recognize that moderate inflation can be indicative of a thriving economy. The Federal Reserve’s commitment to a measured approach in handling inflationary pressures instills confidence among investors. Historically, periods of controlled inflation have often coincided with stock market prosperity.


Interest Rates and Monetary Policy:


The Federal Reserve’s dovish stance on interest rates remains a key driver for equities. The commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policies, coupled with a gradual approach to rate hikes, creates an environment conducive to risk-taking and market expansion. Low-interest rates incentivize investors to seek higher returns in the stock market, contributing to a potential rally in the S&P 500.


Technological Innovation and Growth Sectors:


The ongoing technological revolution, coupled with advancements in sectors such as renewable energy, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence, positions the market for sustained growth. Investors are increasingly drawn to companies at the forefront of innovation, driving capital into sectors with substantial growth potential.


FOMO Mentality:


The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has become a pervasive force in the investment landscape. As the S&P 500 approaches its previous all-time high, investors who remained cautious or diversified during the pandemic-induced uncertainties might feel the pressure to join the market rally. This influx of capital driven by FOMO could act as a powerful catalyst, propelling the index to new heights.


Global Investment Flows:


The S&P 500’s status as a global benchmark makes it a preferred destination for international investors seeking stable returns. As uncertainties ease and the global economic outlook improves, a surge in foreign investments is likely. This influx of capital could further contribute to the index’s upward trajectory.


Earnings Resilience and Corporate Adaptability:


Corporations have showcased remarkable adaptability in navigating challenges, demonstrating resilience in the face of adversity. Robust earnings reports, coupled with forward-looking guidance, instill confidence in investors and serve as a fundamental driver for stock prices.

While market dynamics are inherently unpredictable, the confluence of these factors paints a picture of resilience and growth for the S&P 500. Investors would be wise to monitor these trends closely, recognizing the potential for the index to reach new heights by the end of 2023, driven by a combination of economic recovery, technological advancements, and the prevailing FOMO mentality in the investment landscape.


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Posted by Martin December 04, 2023
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Our Crumbs strategy still worked despite today’s selloff

Last Friday, the market jumped up and broke above what I thought was a rollover pattern. If the breakout was legit, it would make it a consolidation. But today, the market sold off and erased all Friday’s gains. Despite that, our Crumbs strategy worked. But on Friday, it all looked like we were going higher. So when I was opening our trade, I decided to skew the entire Iron Condor higher and collect more premium.

Crumbs strategy still working

However, the market decided to show me that it can be treacherous and dangerous at the same time. When you think you can lose your rules a bit, you get bitten immediately. That’s why it is crucial to have your rules in place and stick to them despite all temptations. And trust me, the temptation of going aggressive a bit more was there and I fell for it.

Fortunately, I didn’t go nuts and still wanted a safe trade. And it paid off. Despite the selling out there, our Crumbs strategy prevailed and the Friday’s trade expired worthless for a full profit. But it was close! In the morning, the market retreated all the way down to 4,546.72 which was very close to our 4,535 short put strike.

Crumbs strategy closing

Today was a great reminder to play by the rules and not lose them. That’s why we opened a new trade today (subscribe to get email alerts) going back to the rules of the Crumbs strategy.


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Posted by Martin December 04, 2023
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Decoding Retirement Strategies: Living Off Dividends vs. the 4% Rule

As individuals approach retirement, the critical question of how to generate a reliable income becomes paramount. Two popular strategies that often emerge in this discussion are building a portfolio for living off dividends and following the 4% rule. Both approaches have their merits and drawbacks, and choosing the right one requires a careful consideration of individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions.


Pros and Cons of Living Off Dividends:


  1. Stability and Predictability: Dividend payments from well-established companies often provide a stable and predictable income stream. This can be particularly appealing for retirees seeking consistent cash flow.

  3. Inflation Hedge: Some dividend-paying stocks increase their payouts over time, acting as a natural hedge against inflation. This ensures that retirees can maintain their purchasing power as the cost of living rises.

  5. Tax Efficiency: Qualified dividends often receive favorable tax treatment, potentially resulting in lower tax obligations compared to other forms of income.



  1. Limited Diversification: Relying solely on dividend-paying stocks may limit portfolio diversification, exposing investors to sector-specific risks. A lack of diversification can make the portfolio vulnerable to economic downturns in specific industries.

  3. Market Volatility: Stock prices, and consequently dividend payouts, can be subject to market volatility. This volatility may lead to fluctuations in income, which can be unsettling for retirees relying on a steady cash flow.

  5. Income Dependency on Company Decisions: Dividend payments are at the discretion of the company’s board of directors. A company facing financial difficulties may reduce or eliminate dividends, impacting the retiree’s income.


Growth or Dividends investing

Pros and Cons of the 4% Rule:


  1. Broad Market Exposure: The 4% rule typically involves a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds, providing exposure to various market sectors. This diversification helps spread risk and can mitigate the impact of poor performance in a specific industry.

  3. Flexibility: The 4% rule allows retirees to adjust their spending based on market conditions. In years of strong market performance, retirees may be able to withdraw more, while in down years, they can tighten their budget.

  5. Historical Success: The 4% rule is based on historical market data, which suggests that a 4% annual withdrawal rate is sustainable over a 30-year retirement period. This historical success provides a level of confidence for those following this strategy.



  1. Market Uncertainty: The 4% rule relies on market performance, and unforeseen market downturns can significantly impact the sustainability of the withdrawal rate. Retirees may need to adjust their spending if faced with prolonged market downturns.

  3. Inflation Concerns: The 4% rule may not fully account for the impact of inflation, especially if it exceeds expectations. This could erode purchasing power over time, affecting the retiree’s standard of living.



Choosing between living off dividends and the 4% rule ultimately depends on individual circumstances and preferences. Both strategies have their merits and drawbacks. Living off dividends offers stability and potential tax advantages but may lack diversification. The 4% rule provides broad market exposure and historical success but is subject to market fluctuations and inflation concerns.

In general, a balanced approach that combines elements of both strategies might be prudent. Diversifying a portfolio with a mix of dividend-paying stocks and a well-constructed portfolio following the 4% rule can provide retirees with a robust and flexible retirement income strategy. It’s advisable to consult with a financial advisor to tailor a plan that aligns with individual goals and risk tolerance.


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Posted by Martin December 03, 2023


Contest Announcement: Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge!

This contest is now closed for voting. It is also invalidated as we had less than 5 participants. We hope you join us next week for a new contest!

Contest voting CLOSED from Sunday December 3rd – Wednesday December 6th


Welcome to the Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge!


We’re thrilled to bring you an exciting contest where your forecasting skills could win you a fantastic prize – an Amazon or Cash gift card! Get ready to flex your market intuition and join the fun.
Also, the prize will be increasing every month, so participate regularly for larger prizes!


Last Closing Market Price: 4,567.80 – Friday, December 8th Closing Price: 4,604.37

Contest Gift Card


Contest Rules:


1. Eligibility:


  • Open to participants worldwide.
  • Participants must be 18 years or older.


2. How to Participate:


  • The contest will run every week.
  • A post will be made on our official website every Sunday, opening during regular trading hours.
  • To participate, enter your prediction of the S&P 500 closing price for that upcoming Friday in the comments section of this announcement.
  • When posting, enter a valid email address where you can be reached if you win the contest.


3. Prediction Window:


  • The voting will be open for comments from Sunday to Wednesday. The voting will close every Wednesday at the market close (4:00 pm ET).
  • Comment your vote in the comments section below this post.
  • Only one entry per participant is allowed.
  • All votes made after Wednesday market closing hours will be disregarded.


4. Scoring:


  • The winner will be determined based on the closest prediction to the actual closing price of the S&P 500 on Friday.
  • Decimal points will be considered for precision.

    5. Tiebreakers:


  • In the case of a tie, the participant who submitted their prediction first will be declared the winner.


6. Winner Announcement:


  • The winner will be announced on our official website on the following Sunday.
  • The winner will be contacted privately at his/her provided email address to arrange the delivery of the prize.
  • The prize will be electronic or physical mailed to a provided postal address. For deliveries of the prize expect two to three days for electronic cards and five to ten days for physical cards.
  • The contest will be invalid and cancelled if less than 5 participants vote.


7. Prize:


  • This week, the winner will receive a $50 Amazon or Cash gift card (e.g. Visa gift card) or similar.
  • Prizes are non-transferable and cannot be exchanged for cash.


7. Disclaimer:


  • This contest is for entertainment purposes only.
  • The closing price of the S&P 500 will be based on reputable financial news sources.
  • We reserve the right to cancel the contest at any time without liability. Participants acknowledge that the cancellation of the contest does not incur any legal harm or claims against the organizers.
  • By participating, participants agree to abide by the terms and conditions of this contest.


8. Have Fun:


  • Remember, this contest is all about having fun and testing your forecasting skills. Good luck to all participants!


Get ready to showcase your market wisdom and take a shot at winning the Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge. May the most accurate predictor win!


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Posted by Martin December 03, 2023
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What’s ahead this week in the economy and the market?

The commencement of the Federal Reserve’s blackout period is underway. The Federal Open Mouth Committee is set to maintain radio silence until after the forthcoming FOMC meeting on December 12-13. The economic indicators slated for this week are poised to sway their sentiment, providing assurance that the robust labor market is undergoing a desired cooling without veering into recession territory. Furthermore, the week’s inflation metrics are anticipated to affirm a moderation trend, aligning with their expectations of economic stability. Consequently, the likelihood of the committee maintaining a status quo for the third consecutive meeting is high, prompting contemplation of a well-deserved break for the rest of the month. The financial markets, both stocks, and bonds, have already factored in our envisioned “immaculate disinflation” scenario during the preceding month, with expectations of continued Santa Claus rallies throughout December.


On the employment horizon, the week commences with the release of October’s JOLTS report on Tuesday. Indications from comparable sources suggest that job openings persisted at a high level, hovering around 9.5 million.

As we approach Friday, the spotlight shifts to November’s employment report, expected to unveil a robust gain of approximately 180,000 jobs, notably driven by the return of autoworkers following their recent strike. Despite this positive outlook, signals from continuing unemployment claims and the jobs-hard-to-get series point towards a potential uptick in the unemployment rate for November. Wage inflation, on the other hand, is likely to sustain its moderating trend during the same period.

Wednesday brings the revised report on Q3 productivity and labor costs, which has the potential to influence stock and bond prices similarly to the preliminary report from the previous month. The initial findings indicated a notable uptick in productivity at 4.7% (saar), accompanied by a 0.8% decline in unit labor costs (ULC). Expectations are that the revision may see an upward adjustment in productivity and a corresponding downward revision in ULC, given the upward revision of real GDP for Q3. The year-over-year ULC, a determinant of underlying inflation, stood at a modest 1.9% during Q3 and could see a downward revision.


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Posted by Martin December 03, 2023
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Jamie Dimon’s Cautionary Economic Outlook: A nuanced perspective amidst uncertainties

During the recent New York Times DealBook Summit, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concerns about the economic landscape, issuing a cautionary perspective on the ongoing fight against inflation.

Dimon emphasized the unparalleled scale of government deficits and debt, suggesting that these financial challenges could persist in the foreseeable future. He pointed to essential investments required for expanding the green economy and Europe’s need to address its energy requirements as potential contributors to sustained deficits.

Dividend investing

Additionally, Dimon underscored two significant factors potentially fueling inflation: the restructuring of global trade relations and the remilitarization of countries worldwide. According to him, these geopolitical shifts have the potential to introduce both danger and inflation into the economic landscape.

In his warning, Dimon highlighted the possibility of rising interest rates, both in the short term and the 10-year rate, which could, in turn, lead to a recession. This cautionary note aligns with his belief that various global dynamics pose risks that should not be underestimated.

When questioned about the current strength of the economy, Dimon expressed skepticism about its sustainability. He attributed the current surge in corporate profits to robust consumer spending fueled by substantial government support. Dimon cautioned that once this spending diminishes, corporate profits could experience a downturn.

Dimon’s assessment of the U.S. economic situation underscored the extensive fiscal stimulation and quantitative easing as significant contributors. He likened these measures to injecting “drugs” into the economic system, creating a temporary “sugar high.” This metaphor emphasizes the transient nature of the current economic boom, suggesting that it might not be built on sustainable, organic growth.


Why Dimon May Be Wrong:


However, it’s crucial to consider alternative perspectives that challenge Dimon’s cautious outlook. Some economists argue that the robust fiscal measures and investments in critical sectors could indeed foster sustainable growth. They posit that government support has been a necessary stimulus for economic recovery, especially during unprecedented global challenges.

Moreover, proponents of a more optimistic view contend that while risks exist, economic resilience and adaptability could mitigate potential downturns. The ongoing technological advancements, the green economy’s expansion, and the adaptability of corporations in navigating challenges may contribute to a more sustained and resilient economic recovery.

In essence, while Dimon raises valid concerns, the complexity of economic dynamics allows for diverse interpretations. Acknowledging both cautious and optimistic perspectives is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape and effective decision-making in uncertain times.


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Posted by Martin December 02, 2023
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Unleashing the Power of Options Trading: A Strategy That Defies Common Myths

Delving into options trading might seem daunting, especially with the plethora of warnings echoing from financial advisors. The narrative often revolves around risk, the gamble of losing money, and the unsuitability for the average investor. However, these cautionary tales are often regurgitated without personal experience, stemming from a reluctance to step outside conventional investment wisdom.

Options trading

While brokers are mandated to issue warnings, it’s essential to recognize that options trading doesn’t solely entail complex strategies. A straightforward approach, such as selling puts, can yield profits that may defy conventional belief.


Breaking the Mold


Contrary to the ominous warnings, I’ve personally averaged a remarkable 45% annual profit over the last three years by employing a put-selling strategy. This isn’t a “too good to be true” scenario but rather a testament to the potential within options trading.


Selling Puts: A Grounded Strategy


Options trading, specifically selling puts, doesn’t necessitate a plunge into intricate tactics. It’s about adopting the right mindset as an investor. Here are some steps to shift your perspective:

  1. Align with Dividend Stocks: Focus on selling puts against stocks you want to own, particularly dividend-paying stocks.
  2. Strategic Strike Price: Choose a strike price at which you’re comfortable owning the stock if assigned.
  3. Expiry and Premium Selection: Tailor your approach based on your account size. Opt for longer expirations for smaller accounts and vice versa. Prioritize premium collection.
  4. Market Analysis: Assess the stock’s trends, supports, and resistances. Make informed decisions based on your bullish or bearish expectations.
  5. Defend Your Premium: If the stock goes against your projection, have strategies in place to defend the premium, whether by rolling the option or accepting the stock.
  6. Never Buy, Always Sell: Maintain a stance of selling options, leveraging time decay to your advantage.


Demystifying the Complexity


Contrary to popular belief, you don’t need an in-depth understanding of option Greeks or complex valuation principles. The focus should be on grasping the basics and utilizing them effectively.

  1. Stock Watchlist: Create a watchlist of stocks you want to trade.
  2. Broker Approval: Ensure you have the necessary approvals from your broker to engage in options trading.
  3. Platform Choice: Opt for a reliable platform like ThinkorSwim or any other that suits your preferences.
  4. Funding Requirements: Whether cash-secured puts or margin trading, have the necessary funds in place. If using margin, be cautious and ensure you can cover potential assignments.

    Unlocking the Power of Options


    Understanding puts is fundamental to this strategy. A put option grants the right to sell a stock at a specified price within a certain timeframe. By selling a put, you’re essentially receiving a premium, even if it means potentially buying the stock at a lower price.


    Why Dividend Stocks?


    The beauty of selling puts against dividend-paying stocks lies in their stability. Unlike volatile market panics, these stocks, typically from mature companies, tend to recover swiftly. Even if assigned, you’re acquiring a stock that pays dividends, turning the situation into a win-win.


    Learning from Success Stories


    Success stories abound in the options trading world. Look at self-made millionaires like Teddi Knight and “Karen the Supertrader.” Their journeys exemplify the potential within options trading when approached with a strategic mindset.


    Embrace the Opportunity


    Are you hesitant about venturing into options trading? Fear not, as many have successfully navigated these waters. Options trading, particularly selling puts against dividend stocks, offers a unique avenue to generate income and acquire quality stocks. Embrace the opportunity, learn the ropes, and embark on your journey towards a flourishing investment portfolio.

    If you’re unsure where to start, feel free to reach out. I’m here to assist you in setting up trades, enabling you to build your money-making machine—one that collects dividends and options premiums.


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Posted by Martin December 02, 2023
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Condors in the Clouds: A Hilarious Tale of Trading Triumph

Hey there, fellow financial daredevils and stock market acrobats! Today, we’re diving into the wild world of options trading with a side-splitting story that’ll have you laughing all the way to the bank (or maybe the virtual bank, since it’s the 21st century and all).


Our protagonist, let’s call them Captain Condor, recently embarked on a two-day rollercoaster ride in the stock market, armed with nothing but an adventurous spirit, a keen eye for strategy, and a possibly lucky rabbit’s foot (the jury’s still out on that one).

Picture this: Captain Condor, donned in a cape made of stock certificates and wielding a keyboard like a sword, set out to conquer the mythical beast known as the SPX (S&P 500). With nerves of steel and a glint in their eye, Captain Condor decided to tame this financial beast with the legendary Iron Condor strategy.

Our Condor had $10 wide wings and it’s body spread all the way to 4,495 / 4,455 put side and 4,645 / 4,633 call side. And we only had two days of gliding in this still waters (or skies) of Wall Street.

Now, for the uninitiated, an Iron Condor is like the Swiss Army knife of options trading. It involves simultaneously selling a put spread and a call spread, creating a sweet spot where the underlying asset (in this case, the SPX) can frolic freely without triggering financial chaos.

Our hero Captain Condor, with the grace of a Wall Street ballerina, executed their plan flawlessly. Selling options here, buying options there – it was like orchestrating a financial ballet. The market, unaware of the spectacle unfolding, continued its daily routine of ups, downs, and sideways shimmies.

As the first day unfolded, Captain Condor watched the market with bated breath, occasionally muttering words of encouragement to their options as if coaxing a horse to victory. The SPX danced around, teasing the edges of the Iron Condor’s wingspan but never quite breaking free. It was a close call, but Captain Condor emerged unscathed, pockets jingling with a modest profit.

Day two, however, brought a plot twist that even Hollywood couldn’t script. The market, like a mischievous imp, decided to throw a curveball at our intrepid trader. But Captain Condor, undeterred, adjusted their strategy on the fly, turning potential disaster into a comedy of errors for the market itself.

In a surprising turn of events, the SPX played right into Captain Condor’s hands. It seemed that even the market couldn’t resist a well-executed Iron Condor. The financial gods smiled upon our hero, and by the end of the second day, Captain Condor proudly counted a cool $131 in profits.

In fact, we had over 40 Captain Condors flying around since September when we started opening Crumbs trades and almost all of them were a great success. Don’t believe me? Check this spreadsheet then.

And there you have it, dear readers – a tale of triumph in the face of financial uncertainty, where a fearless trader armed with nothing but wits and a clever strategy danced with the market and emerged victorious.

So, whether you’re a seasoned trader or a casual observer of the financial circus, remember this: sometimes, all it takes to conquer the market is a dash of strategy, a dollop of humor, and the ability to laugh in the face of financial gravity.

Until next time, happy trading and may your portfolios be as colorful as a circus tent on a sunny day!


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