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Posted by Martin April 24, 2020
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How much should I invest in the stock market as a teenager?


As much as you can. Every penny you get and can call “yours” should be invested in the stock market – 100% or more in stocks. Forget any defensive safe investing. You are young, you have time on your side so you can go aggressive as you will be able to fix any mistake. Leverage your investments. If you want to know more of what I am taking about, read a book “Lifecycle Investing”

Learn as much about investing as possible, set a goal which will tell you how you want to invest, what stocks, how much money, for how long, when you will be buying, when selling, etc. and then stick to the plan for decades. 20 or 30 years later, you will retire financially free.

Learn to use options to boost your returns. For example, if you buy 100 shares of a stock and it appreciates a lot, you can convert your stock holdings into a long call option which will allow you to keep profits and release cash for more purchases (safe leveraging, read the book above). Sell cash secured puts to buy shares, sell covered calls to monetize your holdings. Be aggressive.

Study the market, ignore suckers who are scared to death whenever the market goes up (claiming it is overvalued) and scared anytime it goes down a bit (claiming end of the world and a crash), they have no clue. If you study the market, you will be able to identify when the market is in corrective or bearish mode (which should be respected) and when it is just a dip (to be ignored and bought more). No crisis takes longer than about 3 years (usually 1 to 3 years) so you can be buying more during recessions when you are young and in accumulation phase and be defensive when you are older and closer to retirement. You will hear people claiming that “if you bought on top of 1930 it would take you 25 years to get even”. That is a nonsense, ignoring that the market wasn’t down all the time for 25 years. It went up and down in waves. So, yes in that period it went nowhere but, if you started investing, buying high quality dividends stocks (for example), reinvesting dividends, you would be buying more and more cheaper shares anytime the market would go lower, and anytime it would be going higher, the recovery would be faster and cumulative. In your 20s, this wouldn’t matter at all and if you were in your 50s, it wouldn’t matter either as you would be living off your dividends, options premiums, and maybe some selling. The market (stocks) prices will eventually go to a price which will be beyond any crash level (unrepeatable price) so you can ignore any gloomers and doomers scared of any decline or recession. What do I mean by “unrepeatable price? It is a price the stock or market will probably never revisit. Example: JNJ stock. I bought it at $38 a share. Today, it trades at $140 a share. If the stock market loses 70%. The price would be $42 a share. It is still above my cost basis, so even if everyone panicked all around and kept selling and screaming, I still would be in green and buying more shares. And even if that happens, how long would it take before the market recovers? 2008 took 2.5 years to get back to pre-crash level. And imagine, that you would be buying more at $42 level. so when the stock goes back up you will be riding great recovery even if the market recovers partially only.

So, do not be afraid and look for long term perspective, long term investing. Many people are long term only until the next correction, don’t be like them. Have 20 or 30 year time frame in mind (even if you trade short term products such as options, you still must be aware of the long term results). Believe, me, you will reach great results.




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Posted by Martin April 24, 2020
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Realty Income: The Top Monthly Dividend Stock For Income Investors


Dividend growth stocks have a number of buying opportunities to consider right now, thanks to the significant drop in the stock market to begin 2020. Even with the recent rebound, the S&P 500 remains down 13% per year. Certain sectors such as real estate have been hit even harder, due to the widespread store closures across the country.

This makes certain high-yield Real Estate Investment Trusts highly attractive for income investors. We believe Realty Income (O) is a high-quality monthly dividend stock with a high yield of 5.6% and a secure monthly payout. The company is an appealing stock for income investors looking for a high yield, and a reliable monthly dividend.

 

 · Business Overview

 

Realty Income is a Real Estate Investment Trust, also known as a REIT, which means it owns real estate properties that are rented out to tenants. As a landlord, Realty Income collects rental revenue, while avoiding much of the operating expenses such as insurance and taxes, which the tenant pays. Realty Income’s property portfolio is focused on retail.

Realty Income has a diversified real estate portfolio of over 6,400 commercial properties under long-term leases. The properties are leased to over 300 commercial tenants, spanning 50 industry groups. Properties are located in 47 states as well as Puerto Rico, and the United Kingdom. Realty Income owns retail properties that are standalone properties. This means that the properties are used by a wide range of tenants, including government services, healthcare services, and entertainment.

The current occupancy rate exceeds 98%, and has never fallen below 96%. Convenience stores represent the largest individual industry group, at over 11% of Realty Income’s rental revenue. The top tenants include Walgreens, 7-Eleven, Dollar General, FedEx, and Dollar Tree.

The company’s strong property portfolio has led to steady growth for many years. In the 2019 fourth quarter, revenue $398 million increased 16% from the same quarter the previous year. Contributors to revenue growth included rental increases at existing properties, as well as rental increases from investments in new properties made in the past year.

Funds from operation, or FFO, were flat in the 2019 fourth quarter from the same quarter the previous year. While total FFO continued to rise due to rental increases, on a per-share basis the FFO figure was partially offset due to equity issuances over the past year. Still, Realty Income’s funds-from-operations increased by 9% year-over-year, as its funds-from-operations-per-share came in at $0.86 during the fourth quarter.

For the full year, adjusted FFO-per-share increased 4% to $3.32 per share. It is likely Realty Income will continue to generate growth in the years ahead, even with a highly challenging environment for 2020. While FFO will likely decline in 2020, over the long-term, we expect continued growth once the coronavirus crisis is over. Realty Income’s future growth will be fueled by its investments in new properties. For example, in 2019 Realty Income invested $3.7 billion in 789 properties and properties under development or expansion, including $797.8 million in 18 properties in the United Kingdom.

 

 · Dividend Analysis

 

We currently hold Realty Income as our top-ranked monthly dividend stock. There are many reasons for this, including its top-tier property portfolio, but also due to its impressive dividend history. Realty Income has declared 597 consecutive monthly dividend payments, which goes back nearly 50 years. It has also increased its dividend 106 times since its initial public offering in 1994. With at least 25 consecutive years of annual dividend increases, Realty Income is a member of the Dividend Aristocrats.

 
Realty Income Dividends
&mbsp;

Realty Income currently pays a monthly dividend of $0.233 per share, which equates to an annualized payout of $2.80 per share. With a recent share price of approximately $50 per share, Realty Income has a current dividend yield of 5.6%. This is a highly attractive yield for income investors, especially due to the low interest rate environment. Stocks do not widely offer high yields either, as the S&P 500 Index on average has a 2.1% dividend yield right now.

By comparison, Realty Income stock is very attractive for income investors such as retirees. Not only does Realty Income provide a much higher level of income than the average dividend stock in the S&P 500, it also pays its dividend each month. Most other publicly-traded stocks pay dividends quarterly, semi-annually or once per year. This means Realty Income shareholders receive 12 dividend payments per year, which could be more useful for investors who utilize dividend income to pay for monthly expenses.

In addition, the dividend appears secure. Consensus estimates call for FFO-per-share expectations of $3.42 for 2020. Based on current analyst estimates, Realty Income’s dividend payout of $2.80 per share represents an implied dividend payout ratio of approximately 82% for 2020. This is a relatively high dividend payout ratio, but it is not uncommon for REITs to distribute the vast majority of per-share FFO to shareholders.

The company also has a strong financial position which will help it navigate a potential recession in 2020. Realty Income has a long-term credit rating of A3 from Moody’s and A- from Standard & Poor’s. According to the company, it is one of only 8 REITs with at least two A3 or A- credit ratings. Having a strong balance sheet and property portfolio helped the company survive the previous recession of 2008-2009. Realty Income was one of only two REITs in the S&P 500 with positive earnings growth, dividend growth, and total shareholder return during the Great Recession.

While no two recessions are identical, Realty Income’s track record of successfully navigating the previous recession to hit the U.S. recession at least bodes well for the company’s performance if another recession occurs.

 

 · Final Thoughts

 

The stock market decline to begin 2020 has presented multiple buying opportunities for investors with a long-term view. But investors should focus on quality, as many hard-hit sectors will continue to struggle in this environment. Investors should assess the underlying company fundamentals to ensure the stocks they are buying have sustainable dividends. We believe Realty Income is among the highest-quality REITs in the entire market, as it has a long history of navigating recessions and paying dividends.




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Posted by Martin April 22, 2020
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What is the best money investment at medium risk in 1 year?


If you must be in a stock market, buy the entire index (SPY). Yet, it will diversify you but if we get a selloff, you may not be able to get out. I expect at least 18 additional years of a bull market but that doesn’t mean we will have no corrections on the way up. We will have them. We will have 3%, 4%, 5%, 10%, or even 20% corrections, pullbacks, or bear markets in this secular bull market (most common are 4% corrections), so, expect them and navigate your investment accordingly (e.g. when your withdrawal time nears, start trimming your positions at every market new high, etc.).




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Posted by Martin April 22, 2020
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People chasing oil buying USO long term are poised for a rude awakening.


People are jumping in oil (USO) futures these days. Data shows that these buy orders are coming from retail investors (from Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and similar accounts). People, who are jumping in USO now think that with futures at 2.50 per contract they will become rich long term when oil recovers.

But they have it wrong. Just by a nature of the USO ETF, they will lose money due to Contango effect.

What does it mean?

Let’s take a brief look how USO operates. USO buys oil futures contracts. But they do not buy them to buy physical oil. They do not want to have barrels of oil stored at their backyard. So what USO does when the contracts are nearing to expiration?

They sell the current contracts and buy next month contracts. And when next month contracts near to expiration, they sell those contracts and roll into the next month, and so on.

And now look at the current quotes of crude oil futures with different expirations.

 
USO
 

CL May contract is at $2.87
CL June contact is at $15.13
CL July contract is at $23.17

As those contracts near to expiration, USO has to sell its May contracts at $2.87 and buy June contracts at $15.13. And as June contracts near expiration, they will sell at $15.14 and buy July contracts at $23.17, and so on. This is a constant erosion of the ETF’s price. Buying USO and staying in it waiting for oil to recover and thus becoming rich is a path to destruction.




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Posted by Martin April 21, 2020
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How to protect myself when trading on margin


This is my sin I commit in trading and investing all the time – over trading. I trade and invest using margin. You may argue, that it may be dangerous and you should trade and invest cash. I disagree.

This is how I see it:

If I want to buy 100 shares of a stock, let’s say Archer Daniels (ADM) which currently trades at $35.00 a share, in a cash account I would have to come up with $3,500 to be able to do it. In a margin account, I only need an initial buying power of $1,500.00.

I like to be buying using this leverage. You may not, but I do.

I also trade options. I sell puts to buy stocks and once I buy a stock (100 shares) or in other words I get assigned, I start selling covered calls and do that as long as I get assigned again and sell the stock.

And here is my problem I have. Or had. When you sell a put in a margin account, only about a quarter of the needed buying power is needed compared to the cash secured puts. In the ADM example, to sell a 32 strike put, I would need only $405.15 of buying power.

 
options BP
 

But I need to keep remaining $1,100 +/- somewhere to have cash available in case of assignment. If I open an additional trade later on and do not keep a proper track of my available buying power (BP), and get assigned, I am in trouble. I do not have enough cash to buy shares.

And I also do not want to keep to much unused cash sitting in my account and doing nothing. So I want to use as much cash as possible and still stay safe.

And I was thinking on ways how to do it as spreadsheets and bookkeeping hasn’t protected me or prevented me from using more cash (BP) than I had available. And sometimes, I must admit, I get excited and open more trades than I can afford. In a bullish market is not easy, it is just a small trade, it will expire soon and I can afford this one breach or rules, and there is still plenty of BP to sustain this trade which I can eventually roll… yeah, sure.

So, I was thinking what to do and how to make sure I still have enough BP for assignment how to force myself to the rules.

And I came with an idea.

If I sell a put, I will need $400 of BP, if I get assigned, I will need additional $1,100 BP.

I then want to block $1,500.00 for assignment (a slightly more for a buffer). how can I do it so my trading app will show me less BP so I cannot use it as long as the open put trade if live?

I decided to place a buy order for enough ADM shares at some ridiculously low price, like $1 limit buy price, GTC order, which will most likely never executes but will block my buying power:

 
BP block trade
 

This trade will then be safe for its life and if I get assigned, I just cancel the shares purchase order to release my BP for the assignment. And, If I cannot do this trade and place the “blocking trade” then I cannot sell the put in the first place.

so, again, why all this and not just using cash account? Because, I still can buy 100 shares at 50% of needed cash, collect dividends, and sell covered calls and use only 50% of the cash.

And what about margin interest?

First, the margin interest is relatively low compared to the income I can generate monetizing my position by selling puts and collecting premiums, collecting dividends, and then selling covered calls and collecting additional premiums. It is still lower than losses you have to take when you are forced to close a position for which I didn’t have enough cash in the first place. And that is a price I am willing to pay.




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Posted by Martin April 17, 2020
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Is it a good idea to always buy low if you are investing in small stocks, especially if you are a beginner?


If you can correctly identify “low” and a type of a “low” then of course it is a good idea to always buy a low. But how do you know that a “low” in a certain stock is due to bad performance of a company going bankrupt or due to overall market conditions? And how do you know when a “low” is truly a “low” and that the stock will not go even lower?

Investing in stocks is not about chasing lows. Choose high quality stocks and invest in them regularly regardless of the price being low or lower. For example, you can pick a stock and keep buying every time the stock goes below your original purchase price or cost basis. Although even this strategy may not be a good one either as you can buy a stock which will rally and never visits your original purchase price ever. By waiting for a “low” you will miss a great stock going up entirely. Check JNJ stock for example. When I bought it in 2009 it was at $38 a share. The stock never visited this price ever and probably never will. Today, it trades for $150 a share. Or Mastercard (MA), I bought for $78 a share, today it is at $300 a share and that price will never be reached again.

You can also calculate intrinsic values and all sorts of valuation calculations to determine when the stock is “undervalued” and vice versa. But, in my opinion, it is too much work with too much subjective estimates and guesses. So, I do not do it.

So, pick a few stocks and start accumulating no matter what the price is doing. Over time of 20 years, the stock will be up (unless you pick some high flying questionable and speculative company.




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Posted by Martin April 16, 2020
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Dividend aristocrat Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP) cuts dividend. What to do?


In these hard days of covid mess it is difficult to be a true dividend growth investor. Even high quality companies like Helmerich and Payne (HP) which was increasing their dividend for 47 consecutive years decided to cut the dividend.

As a dividend investor I was relying on the dividend aristocrat list and always defended the idea that if a company increases dividends for 50 years or more then it is very unlikely that it would cut the dividend. Although, I admitted that it can happen, I actually didn’t believe it much. Now, that it happened, the question is what to do next?

I was building my position in HP lately adding shares to reach 100 shares in this stock. The dividend was nice and all numbers looked OK to me. I am not an overly expert in evaluating dividend stocks, so I may have missed some warnings but I still felt confident that this stock would be safe.

Then the Covid crash came and the stock plummeted. Then the oil crisis added on top of it and the stock plummeted even more. It went from $45 a share to $12 a share at some point.

 
H&P
 

And, on top of all that the company announced the dividend cut. The dividend growth investor is supposed to liquidate such position and move to a different, better company. At least, that is the theory. But if I liquidate at today’s price, I would be realizing huge loss. And I am not willing to do that.

One reason is that the metrics of the company are still good and the dividend cut is not a result of reckless leadership but to preserve cash in the difficult times like today. It can actually be perceived as a good approach from the board.

This had me to reevaluate my dividend investing strategy and line it up with my recent approach to treat my stock holdings as true asset, like a rental property I decided to buy, hold forever, and monetize it.

And that is the response to the question “what to do?”

I will keep the stocks and keep accumulating my positions despite the dividend cut, and deploy options to generate cash in lieu of the dividends. It is basically an approach described by Samir Elias in his book “Generate Thousands in Cash on your Stocks Before Buying or Selling Them” where you keep selling puts until you buy 100 shares of a stock and once you buy 100 shares you keep selling covered calls until you sell the stock. Then repeat the process.

So, instead of selling a stock, I will keep it. I will keep accumulating until I reach 100 shares and then start selling covered calls. I will also track my cost basis and may reevaluate my holdings once the cost basis drops below the current stock price. Then I may decide to liquidate the position and move elsewhere or keep it. Time will show.




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Posted by Martin April 15, 2020
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Recovery, retracement, crash, or what?


Some time ago, I posted my crystal ball vision about the market creating a pennant, or flag, and that most likely it will go higher.

See my predictions here:
https://tinyurl.com/ybeduenk

Then, I had to find enough evidence out there to confirm my bias and assure myself that everything I saw in my crystal ball is the future to come:

https://tinyurl.com/yc7efeuy
https://tinyurl.com/ydhh7vfp

And today, my predictions of the guru came all true. The market broke up its relationship with bears and up from the pennant and rallied up to the expected target, defined by expected move, and that defined by the pole of the pennant. That target was in the vicinity of 2750 – 2800… but if you look at my picture it was at 2935, but that is a detail which doesn’t fit the narrative so I am ignoring it.

Well, long story short (not really), the market stalled at 50 day MA and now what?

My first gut feeling (the reason why there is no toilet paper in the stores) is that we are going to go through a pullback as of now. Or it can be just a consolidation. We can go sideways, we can do down, or we can continue up. You pick, let me know, and I will win.

People are expecting another crash as this rally was just a bear rally. We recovered about 50% of the previous crash! A perfect Fibonacci retracement. There is no other way but down. Right? Or? What if not? Volume is mediocre, compared to previous days and earnings reports are showing disappointment. All as expected. And that’s the issue I have. It is all expected. This market was crashing all month long on the expectations of bad earnings, so this is all baked in already. Or should be. Apple (AAPL) was warning of bad earnings since day one of this coronavirus mess, who would be surprised if what they said was actually true?

Even bearish, now bullish Goldman Sachs agrees with me on this that the bottom is in (https://tinyurl.com/y8re293u). This actually now sparked a lot of controversy among other gurus like me (mainly those who are seers and revelators) arguing that when GS is bearish, you should be bullish and when GS is bullish you should be bearish. And since GS turned bullish you should go bearish. Ignore, that with this narrative it is like 2+2 = fish, because we do not know what time frame, outlook, and metrics GS used for their prediction and we then apply it to confirm or disprove our narrative (that is happening all the time out there). I too argued till death with a person about the market while I was looking at daily chart and the other guy, a day trader, was looking at 4 hr chart. But that didn’t prevent us from killing each other over an argument where the market would go next.

We have to wait for the next move in the market. I have no clue and my crystal ball doesn’t say anything. My market diarrhea gut prediction says we we see a pullback to 2620 level (some very old support from 2018 or 2019 days of glory). That would create a new higher low and moon will be the target again. Or we can really re-test the lows as happened in 1987, 2000, or 2008 (I hope 1987 it is, because that was just 9% loss, while 2000 and 2008 years saw another almost 40% loss). Given my guts, all super bad news about the economy were already expected, people and revelators were all talking about it or weeks, if not months, companies were warning about their earnings miss one after another – sell the rumor, and now we may see the market actually shrugging it all off and going higher – buy the news. And of course, if… and let me stress the IF here… (I forgot the point while stressing the IF).

Another IF: if the bad earnings news will not be as bad as everybody was panicking about during the March rout, the market may in fact go higher from here. So, stay safe, trade so you preserve cash (I buy equities and trade little to do so), and let’s wait what happens next.
 

S&P 500 prediction




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Posted by Martin April 10, 2020
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What do you think of trading weekly stock options?


There is nothing wrong with weeklys. Of course, it all depends how you trade them. Before, when weeklys were new, there was a problem with liquidity. Not anymore. Then, if you trade weeklys as monthlys, meaning you pick a weekly option but still with 30 or more days to expiration. For example, you pick BA February 28, 2020 280 put option, which is still a weekly options but with 37 days to expiration then there is nothing wrong doing it. You will just have more options to pick strikes and expiration dates than just monthlys.

If you, however, want to trade them a truly weeklys meaning you want to pick them to have 7 days to expiration then there is also nothing wrong with it but be prepared for potential limitations (I wouldn’t call it risks because I deem options less risky than stocks) such as short term to expiration will limit your ability to adjust the position should it go against you, you would have to be too close to the market to collect a decent premium so you run a risk of ending in the money – which is OK when trading equities rather than SPX, for example, and there may be a limit that if you want to roll from one weekly to another, or to monthly or quarterly option, the strikes you want to roll in may not exist and you would have to roll to different strikes which may change the entire trade characteristic and risk profile (for example adding more risk to the trade). Other than that, there is no problem at all.

My view on options, mainly my claim that options are less risky than stocks, sparked controversy among less informed:

This guy “deems options less risky than stocks”.

I would advise you against taking him seriously. ~ Jacob Nikolau

 
If you think that I am wrong, as the guy suggested, then review the following situation:
 

A trader A buys 100 shares of a stock at $30 a share.

A trader B sells a cash covered put with 26 strike price.

The stock ends at $20 a share at expiration.

Trader A sees $1,000 loss.

Trader B sees $600 loss.

Who holds a riskier asset?
 

Trader A holds 100 shares of a stock ABC at $30 a share and does nothing.

Trader B holds 100 shares of a stock ABC at $30 a share and sells 20 strike call options (ITM option) and receives 12.55 premium.

The stock drops to 22 a share. Who is better off? Trader A or trader B?

 
Where is the risk? On the stocks or the options?




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Posted by Martin April 03, 2020
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Should I invest in CDs or annuities?


No, unless you want to waste money.

In CDs the interest won’t even beat inflation and your principal will never grow (unlike stocks where you get dividends and growth, with CDs you get poor interest and no growth).

Annuities look good on a surface but they in fact deprive you of off the stock market growth. What annuities do, is that they tell you that you will get a guaranteed 10% annual return and 0% loss (they guarantee you no loss). But if you look how markets work, you find out annuities are a rip off. The markets usually grow 29% or 30% a year. And time to time they have a severe 20% to 50% bear market (that’s why over time, if you average it, the average annual growth will be 12% only). But this doesn’t take into account time. It only accounts for the percentages. If you see how long the market goes up 20% – 30% per year and how long they go down 20% to 50% per year, you will see that the market can go up 30% for 10 consecutive years while down 50% for 2 consecutive years. And here is the rip off. The annuity company will tell you that for those two years you will not get those losses. But for the next 10 years, you will only get 10% upside while the annuity will reap the remaining 20% .
 

Let’s look at example:
 

Let’s say, you bought an annuity in 2005. Here is what you would get:
 

Dec 31, 2019 – 29.44% – you get 10% – annuity gets 19.44%
Dec 31, 2018 – 20.49% – you get 10% – annuity gets 10.49%
Dec 31, 2017 – 16.21% – you get 10% – annuity gets 6.21%
Dec 31, 2016 – 9.27% – you get 9.27% – annuity gets (0.73%)
Dec 31, 2015 – (15.42%) – you get 0% – annuity gets (15.42%)
Dec 31, 2014 – 2.11% – you get 2.11% – annuity gets (7.89%)
Dec 31, 2013 – 15.82% – you get 10% – annuity gets 5.82%
Dec 31, 2012 – (0.51%) – you get 0% – annuity gets (0.51%)
Dec 31, 2011 – 12.41% – you get 10% – annuity gets 2.41%
Dec 31, 2010 – 51.76% – you get 10% – annuity gets 41.76%
Dec 31, 2009 – 242.54% – you get 10% – annuity gets 232.54%
Dec 31, 2008 – (77.52%) – you get 0% – annuity gets (77.52%)
Dec 31, 2007 – (18.81%) – you get 0% – annuity gets (18.81%)
Dec 31, 2006 – 16.73% – you get 10% – annuity gets 6.73%
Dec 31, 2005 – 19.27% – you get 10% – annuity gets 9.27%

Out of these years, there were only 4 occurrences where annuity would grow at zero growth rate, 9 occurrences where the market grew more than 10% and 2 where it was a bit less that 10%. Just look at December 2009. The market went up 242.54% but your annuity would pay you only 10%. The remaining 232.54% would be a nice gain tot he annuity company using YOUR money. And this is just a 15 years long example. Imagine you would do this for 30 years. Add fees to it and it will not be you who would be rich…




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