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Posted by Martin April 07, 2018
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Weekly results April 07, 2018


S&P 500  2,604.47 -58.37 (-2.19%)  Dow 30  23,932.76 -572.46 (-2.34%)  Nasdaq  6,915.11 -161.44 (-161.44)
 

Sell offAnother sell off in the markets based on fears from Drumpf damaging economy of the US by escalating the trade war, job report, inflation fear. But we may be bottoming. Although if we really are, the road to recovery still may be very bumpy.

The first week of April wasn’t as great as I would wish, we rolled a few trades and the overall trade balance was negative.

 
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Posted by Martin April 05, 2018
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Trump proving again he has no clue and he is mentally stuck in 1930


S&P 500  2,662.84 +18.15 (+0.69%)  Dow 30  24,505.22 +240.92 (+0.99%)  Nasdaq  7,076.55 +34.44 (+0.49%)
 

Baby TrumpThe market were finally on the path of recovery, the chart was clear, markets calm, shrugged the trade war, and going higher. Yesterday we saw dip buyers jumping in and buying cheap stocks recovering a market which was down 35 points finishing 35 points up.

It no longer matters as Trump announced new tariffs against China, this time on $100 billion of goods. It appears china hurt his little ego by “unfair retaliation”. evidently, this man is taking it personally, has no clue how trade wars usually end, and he is mentally stuck in 1930. His new tariffs are no longer a national interest issue saving or protecting Americans’ jobs but his personal vengeance.

 
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Posted by Martin April 04, 2018
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Stocks erased morning losses


S&P 500  2,644.69 +30.24 (+1.16%)  Dow 30  24,264.30 +230.94 (+0.96%)  Nasdaq  7,042.11 +100.83 (+1.45%)
 

Crazy Stock MarketToday, it definitely was a crazy market. A market I haven’t expected at all after China announced tariffs retaliation on the US goods worth $50 billion dollars.

By the morning bell the futures were down more than 34% at S&P and DOW was losing over 450 points. It all looked like that we would have yet another significant selloff. But something was different today.

Early in the morning I posted in our Facebook trading group that given the China’s retaliation the stock market was suspiciously calm. I recommended caution and not to trade aggressively. Well until the market started spiking aggressively up.

We recovered all morning losses.

 
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Posted by Martin April 03, 2018
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Reclaiming 200 DMA support


S&P 500  2,614.45 +32.57 (+1.26%)  Dow 30  24,033.36 +389.17 (+1.65%)  Nasdaq  6,941.28 +71.16 (+1.04%)
 

S&P PanicAfter a selloff on Monday the markets eased the rout a bit today. The whole day was calm and nothing much has been happening. The last trading hour the markets spiked up and reclaimed the 200 DMA support. It is said that “smart money” usually enter the market at the end of the trading session. If this was the case, we are probably finding the ground and we may turn up for a recovery.

But do not be too fast. Trump and his big mouth will make sure he screws it all up again. He announced a new list of goods with new tariffs against China. The only positive thing with this new 50 billion tariffs plan is that futures didn’t react on the news much and remained flat. Although it may change during the day it still looks like a good sign that the tariffs war is being priced in.

 
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Posted by Martin April 02, 2018
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Rout Today, Rally Tomorrow, Rout Next Day, And So On


S&P 500  2,581.88 -58.99 (-2.23%)  Dow 30  23,644.19 -458.92 (-1.90%)  Nasdaq  6,870.12 -193.33 (-2.74%)
 

S&P PanicAnother rout in the markets today. The markets lost 88 points during the day, so it was quite encouraging to see that it recovered by the end of the day and we only lost 59 points. That means, that so far, this market behaves as expected.

What are the expectations for the market? What this market may do?

 
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Posted by Martin March 31, 2018
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March 2018 trading, investing, results


February was bad. Unfortunately, March on Wall Street wasn’t any better. The slump in stocks continued and S&P 500 continue sliding down. The first week of March looked promising. The markets went up and it all looked that we are finally on the path of recovery.

Then Trump announced his tariffs shame aimed against China and excluding all others. Those who hoped in growth of the US steel got slammed as major steel exporters got exception and China threaten Trump with large retaliation.

And the Wall Street used this mess as a good excuse to dump stocks again. A March toll? A loss of 7.11%

But, I do not feel bad about it. As a dividend investor I welcome this drop and all great dividend stocks being on sale. and I wish this would last for some time! I wish the stocks would go lower even more!

 
Trading Results
 

As an options trader I pretty much do not care where the market goes. That’s the beauty of trading the options. Options will allow you to make money in any situation – if done right.

My only concern, in this market slump, is to be on the right side of the trend. Many of my trades were bullish. If this market is truly changing into a bear market (which I do not believe we are there) these bullish trades would hurt. There is a way to revert them into bearish trades but it will require capital reserves. And my concern is, will my accounts have enough money in reserves to trade through the reversal?

In march we made the most money I have ever made trading options in a month. The final revenue for March 2018 was $18,124.40 dollars!

Now, the biggest task in the coming months will be to retain the revenue (and a few more bucks along with it).

 

 · Dividend stock investing

 

When I started trading in 2006 my goal always was to make enough money trading which can be invested into dividend stocks.

Later on, I got into options and realized that options can provide the dreamed income which can be invested.

My next goal then is to make enough money to be invested into dividend growth stocks but also provide living. I am not there yet. But I study hard and learn to get there.

Here is a review of all accounts stock purchases made in February:

 
Traditional IRA
Trading Results
 

ROTH IRA
Trading Results
 

TD account
TBD
 

In March we purchased the following shares:

 
Dividend growth stocks

 

 · Dividend Income

 

ROTH IRA dividend income
Trading Results
 

IRA dividend income
Trading Results

 

 · Market outlook

 

I am still bullish but I think the bull market is getting closer to its end. My estimate is end of 2018 or first half of 2019. I believe it will be partially due to Trump’s incompetent and protectionist policy which would kill tax cut benefits and lead to the economy slowdown. But before all this ever happens I believe we will see yet one more all time high and then we may see troubles unfolding. But I may be wrong. I am usually always wrong in predicting the market.

I want to trade the market no matter what it does. That’s my ultimate goal – to learn how to trade the market up or down. Make money no matter what the direction is.

That however requires a few things:

1) Discipline and not over trade. Always have enough money in your account to sustain drops like this one in February and be able to manage your trades, adjust them, and escape bad trades. If you have a small account, trade only one trade at a time, or save more money before you trade.

2) Stay calm. Do not panic. If you are in a trouble, roll your trades away to buy time and then when all is calm, adjust.

3) Do not sell your stocks when they go down. Wait until all is over. Remember why you bought the stocks in the first place. I bought mine for dividends. Then I don’t care what the price is doing. I am not selling for capital appreciation. I am a dividend investor. At the end of any panic or bear market there will be a start of a new bull. If you invested before 2008, sit through 2008 selloff, reinvested dividends, and even bought more shares, your account is not way higher than before 2007 end.

4) If you want to be a bit active investor and trader, learn and study the markets. There is always a lot to learn. Play with your trading positions, simulate your options and way how to roll them, fix them, or adjust them even if you do not do it. But the trading platform will show you what you can do and if you see that your situation is hopeless, learn what else you can do to adjust a trade. For example, you have a deep in the money put spread. That is impossible to fix on its own. You play with the trades and find out that you can roll into calls for a small debit and sell new OTM put spread to offset the debit.

5) If everything goes your way DO NOT BE GREEDY!!! Boy how may times I was guilty of being greedy and opening more trades because everything was great and all trades were winning just to see getting myself in trouble the very next day when the market changed direction.

There are many possibilities to trade. Learn them and find those which work best to you and if you stay calm and never panic, be greedy, base your trades on expectations rather than trading what you see, you will prosper and be consistent.
 




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Posted by Martin March 29, 2018
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Off Coloring Easter Eggs


S&P 500  2640.00 +35.87 (+1.38%)  Dow 30  24103.11 +254.69 (+1.07%)  Nasdaq  7063.44 +114.22 (+1.64%)
 

S&P PanicAs one trader put it today – “the markets would go higher today as traders are off coloring the eggs…”

So, the markets went up today… tomorrow, we are closed for Easter and on Monday we will see what’s going to happen next. I have no idea and my expectations are mixed. All we can do is to wait and see.

 
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Posted by Martin March 28, 2018
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200 DMA holding: consolidation or more pain coming?


S&P 500  2605.00 -7.62 (-0.29%)  Dow 30  23848.42 -9.29 (-0.04%)  Nasdaq  6949.23 -59.58 (-0.85%)
 

S&P PanicThe market was dragged down by technology stocks again today. But the draw down was as violent as yesterday or last week. It doesn’t mean that this can turn tomorrow into more selling.

The stock market hold 200 DMA so far but will that level hold? Here is what I think.

 
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Posted by Martin March 27, 2018
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The pain


S&P 500  2612.62 -45.93 (-1.73%)  Dow 30  23857.71 -344.89 (-1.43%)  Nasdaq  7008.81 -211.74 (-2.93%)
 

S&P PanicThe rebound on Monday didn’t last long. Today, the markets tanked again dragged down by technology stocks. So far 200 DMA holds but the more often we knock on it the more likely we break down. Also, the markets are now creating lower highs. Technically, this is a problem.
 
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Posted by Martin March 26, 2018
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A Large Rebound Eases Tensions, Will It Last?


S&P PanicWhat I expected on Friday came on Monday. A significant bounce. But will this turn into a recovery or is it a dead cat bounce for further selloff? I do not know and cannot predict. However, given the markets erratic behavior and fast reactions this may turn into a recovery.

We did a few trades today to take advantage of a rally plus some rolling. It was successful. We received nice credit and rolled some SPX trades lower. However, I have a hunch that it would be wise to stay aside and get a clear signal from the market where are we actually going from here.
 
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