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Why are REITs falling and will they recover?

REITs stocks are sharply falling, one would call it a free fall. Even famous, strong and gigantic companies such as Annaly Capital Management is down by 4.2%, American Capital Agency by 3.8%, and ARMOUR Residential (ARR) by 4.4%. What does it mean for you if you hold those stocks?

A tough year for mREITs
Let’s begin with the fact that it’s been a tough year for mREITs in general. As the Federal Reserve has sought to drive down long-term interest rates via quantitative easing, the interest rate spread that these funds rely on to make money has contracted. Since the third quarter of last year, Annaly’s went from 2.08% down to 1.02% today, and American Capital’s from 2.14% down to 1.42%.

It follows that the compression of interest rates has obligated these companies to decrease their lucrative dividends payouts. Over the last 12 months, Annaly’s quarterly payout went from $0.60 a share down to $0.50, and American Capital’s from $1.40 a share to $1.25. And this, in turn, has put downward pressure on many of these companies’ stock prices.

What’s an income investor to do?
While many analysts and commentators have been anticipating a downward move in mREIT stock prices, that is no consolation to investors currently holding shares in the likes of Annaly, American Capital, or Armour Residential. To those shareholders, I say it’s my opinion that the market is overreacting to general trends that we’ve seen coming for some time now. Investors should avoid the allure of trading stocks on the heels of information like this. What investors should do instead is educate themselves further about the companies they own.

Personally I am sitting tight since I believe this is an overreaction of the market and those companies will recover. More to that I will be purchasing more shares as soon as this free fall ends or I will spot a sign of the end and strength. Many investors will be attracted by nice yield which in case of ARR is now breaking 16%. What a great yield on cost when buying now.

Source: The Motley Fool

8 responses to “Why are REITs falling and will they recover?”

  1. Terry says:

    Thank you for the insight into REIT stock. I have several, LADR, NRO, and AGNC. I bought more NRO on the freefall, as, like you said, I am invested in the long haul. Quality REIT will recover.

  2. sher says:

    have a widely diversified REIT portfolio and am see a selloff across the board in excess of the market dip. wondering on the ability of the REIT sector to sustain their level of payout. Have bought more holding in the past couple of days just to see them crash further.

    what is your thoughts on the sustainability of the payouts

    • Martin says:

      REITs can see a danger due to many people shopping online and stores closing. A lot of commercial REITs struggle with this phenomena as thei struggle with occupancy rate. A good example is SKT REIT (Tanger Factory Outlet Centers, Inc.) which dropped hard and I am afraid that unless people change their shopping behavior and start visiting brick mortar stores again, some REITs will go belly up.

  3. sadly me says:

    I have been doing some buying after a 40% drop in market value only to see a further dip. hopefully the dividend stream will be sustainable on most of my REITS. Some of which I decided to DRIP during this crazy period

    • Martin says:

      If you are investing with long term outlook, not just for the next quarter, then you will be fine even after further drop. But, the only important rule is to pick high quality dividend stocks. Among REITs there isn’t many though. As of now, I would trust Realty Income(O) only.

  4. John says:

    I have been holding my REIT and MLP positions pretty steady. The average of my REIT holdings are a 5.6% yield and so far this year (as of 11/3/2019) I am up about 12% not including the money skimmed from selling covered call options. In my taxable account I tend to buy back those positions which are about to be called, this gives me a tax deduction which ends up usually about a 5-8% loss versus selling and having to pay 25% on a gain in taxes and of course hold on to a now more valuable stock. I use the losses to cover gains in condor options. One of my favorites for those is Priceline now BKNG.

    In my untaxed accounts I will generally let them run their course unless I see an opportunity to slip out with a profit.

  5. Sandra ineson says:

    Today is 1/25/18. Please tell me what is your outlook on arr and agnc. They are my retirement income. Please send me an answer!! Sandra ineson. Mineson@ yahoo.com

  6. Donal Duck says:

    Rational reply that I (have to?) share. Thanks.

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