Posted by Martin November 13, 2022
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2022 Week 45 investing and trading report

I could not report my investing and trading from a week ago because of my travels. I didn’t make many new trades that week, but the last week I started opening new ones and adjusting existing ones. These adjustments were mostly for debit but improved the trades significantly.

Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is improving, allowing us to accumulate more shares:

Our trading delivered -$2,986.00 premiums last week, ending November 2022 at -$2,986.00 (-4.52%) options income. Our net-liq value increased by +5.17% to $66,001.53 value. That is still a terrible result. Our overall account is now down -36.93% YTD.

Here is our investing and trading report:

Account Value:	$66,001.53	+$3,409.36	+5.17%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received:	-$2,986.00
01 January 2022 Options:	+$8,885.00	+8.36%
02 February 2022 Options:	+$10,009.00	+10.34%
03 March 2022 Options:	-$1,662.00	-1.47%
04 April 2022 Options:	+$1,047.00	+1.19%
05 May 2022 Options:	+$8,604.00	+11.32%
06 June 2022 Options:	+$9,691.00	+13.73%
07 July 2022 Options:	+$8,717.00	+11.39%
08 August 2022 Options:	+$7,987.00	+12.15%
09 September 2022 Options:	+$2,997.00	+5.76%
10 October 2022 Options:	+$3,979.00	+6.36%
11 November 2022 Options:	-$2,986.00	-4.52%
Options Premiums YTD:	$57,268.00	+86.77%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received:	$107.10
01 January 2022 Dividends:	$303.38
02 February 2022 Dividends:	$732.81
03 March 2022 Dividends:	$393.74
04 April 2022 Dividends:	$337.31
05 May 2022 Dividends:	$343.99
06 June 2022 Dividends:	$445.80
07 July 2022 Dividends:	$367.66
08 August 2022 Dividends:	$683.58
09 September 2022 Dividends:	$555.20
10 October 2022 Dividends:	$359.89
11 November 2022 Dividends:	$107.10
Dividends YTD:	$4,630.46
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity:	$191,862.25	+$3,139.50	+1.66%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield:	5.44%
Portfolio Dividend Growth:	15.73%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs:	$131,716.60	64.57%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs:	$28,588,366.74	14,015.12%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs:	$4,395,237,135.34	2,154,714.21%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs:	$7,472,401,675,264.82	3,663,258,558.58%
Portfolio Alpha:	81.68%
Sharpe Ratio:	5.80	EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta:	0.45
CAGR:	274.28%
AROC:	86.96%
TROC:	9.27%
Our 2022 Goal
2022 Dividend Goal:	$4,800.00	96.47%	In Progress
2022 Portfolio Value Goal:	$151,638.03	43.53%	In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal:	$175,000.00	37.72%	In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal:	$1,000,000.00	6.60%	In Progress

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

Last week we have received $107.10 in dividends bringing our November’s dividend income at $107.10.

Last week, we did not purchase any dividend stock.

Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

Last week, we purchased no growth stocks.

Options Investing and Trading Report

Last week options trading delivered a loss of -$2,986.00 making our November options income -$2,986.00.

We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered -$313.00 loss.

Expected Future Dividend Income

We received $107.10 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.44% at $66,001.53 market value.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $131,716.60, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $6,890.51 annual dividend income ($574.21 monthly income). We are 5.23% of our 10 year goal of $131,716.60 dividend income.

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

Market value of our holdings

Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $188,722.75 to $191,862.25 last week.

In 2022 we plan on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.

Investing and trading ROI

Our options trading delivered a -4.52% monthly ROI in November 2022, totaling a 86.77% ROI YTD. If our options income stays at this level by the end of the year, we will exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -36.93%.

Our options trading averaged $5,206.18 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $62,474.18 in trading options in 2022. As of today, we have made $57,268.00 trading options.

Old SPX trades repair

We traded our SPX put credit spread strategy, which you will be able to review in my next report. The SPX strategy has held well so far, and our signals kept us from opening new aggressive trades.

Investing and trading report in charts

Account Net-Liq

This drawdown of our account is extremely discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. I am not selling any stock positions despite the losses. I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.

Account Stocks holding

Last week, S&P 500 grew 38.03% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 14.31%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 fell -26.73% and our portfolio -15.46%. We are outperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.

Stock holdings Growth YTD

Our stock holdings are starting to outperform the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.60% of that goal.

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 37.72% of that goal.

Our 2022 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 43.53% of this goal.

I am afraid our account is no longer on track to accomplish our 2022 year goal. We may accomplish our dividend and options income goals, but our account balance (Net-Liq) will be down significantly. Of course, if the market finally rallies by the end of the year, it may all change, but if not, we will fail.

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

Our dividend goal and future dividends

We plan to make $4,800.00 in dividend income in 2022. As of today, we received $4,630.46. This is in line with our projected dividend 2022 goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $6,890.51 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $574.21, and our current monthly dividend income is $385.87.

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like button so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

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Posted by Martin November 13, 2022
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2022 SPX put credit spreads trading review – week 45

I skipped the report while traveling a week ago (week 44). Last week, I traded little, only adjusting a few SPX trades that needed our attention. Our goal is to be able to let those trades expire OTM. Other trades offset all rolls we did, yet we ended negative last week.

Our trades delivered a -$313.00 loss. Our account weekly trading is down by -0.82% while SPX gained 2.36%.

Our SPX account is up +947.30% since the beginning of this program, and we have $39,954 in unrealized gains.

Initial SPX trade set ups

I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS strategy per week. Today, the account is up at $37,702.95. However, due to the recent bear market, many trades are still open, and the funds are tied to those open trades. The trades need to expire or be closed for a profit to release the funds.

Our SPX strategy is designed as directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators (primarily based on moving averages and volume profiles) and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend-following strategy.” We open the trade if we have a bullish signal and a bullish trend. If we do not have a signal, we stay away. We also trade credit call spreads when we have bearish signals. In a choppy market, we stay away from or trade very short expirations (usually 1 or 2 days or up to 7 days), but the trading is muted as we need a trending market. Unfortunately, today, we do not have a trending market (yes, overall, it is a down-trending market, but for short-term trades, it is choppy and not trending).

Here you can see all our trades:

Click on the picture above to see the entire list.

Last week trading

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +947.30% gain last week.

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021):	$3,600.00
Last week beginning value:	$38,015.95
Last week ending value:	$37,702.95 (-0.82%; total: +947.30%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy:	$19,995
Current capital at risk:	-$9,954
Unrealized Gain:	$39,954 (-401.39%)
Realized Gain:	-$5,875 (59.02%)
Total Gain:	$34,079 (-342.36%)
Win Ratio:	56%
Average Winner:	$317
Average Loser:	$500

SPX PCS account value

SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq

SPX PCS account vs SPX index

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

SUBSCRIBE HERE

Note, if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can subscribe to one level only and then send us an email that you want to be added to other levels.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or comment in the comments section. Thank you!

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Posted by Martin November 12, 2022
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11.11.22 – FRIDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

Many investors on social media expected the market to sell off today as investors would take profits before the weekend. But I didn’t expect that. Many investors were very bearish, and the 6% rally on Thursday was too strong for them to stay in their short positions. They got squeezed and had to get out. That fueled the market further up. Today, we saw the momentum of the short squeeze. But that doesn’t mean the battle is over. We are approaching the expected resistance at 200-day MA, where the bears may step back in and short the market here. The only thing that can destroy them is the FED easing their tightening. I think we will see this rally continue to $4,100 or higher in the coming year-end rally.

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Posted by Martin November 11, 2022
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11.10.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

Almost a 6% gain today is impressive! All because a CPI report was a bit better than expected, investors are now melting up. Everything they sold yesterday was bought back today. And since VIX is in contango (quite sharp), I expect this to continue tomorrow, and we will see another up day. We are seeing a typical short squeeze that may gain momentum now. The path to $4,100 is still open.

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Posted by Martin November 10, 2022
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11.09.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

The markets continued showing weakness – first because of election expectations and now selling ahead of the CPI report coming tomorrow at 7:30 CT. And that can shake out the market significantly depending on the report. Given that the VIX is still in contango and pretty much unchanged from yesterday, it may mean that the investors are either fully hedged or not worried. The expected move of the market (SPX) for tomorrow is at $77+/-, and the week (8 days) expected move is at $122 +/-. That tells us that the market may move a lot tomorrow. If the CPI comes in good, expect up to 2% move in either direction.

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Posted by Martin November 09, 2022
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11.08.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

The markets are recovering from Powell’s last week crash, but the trend is weakening daily. The VIX is still in contango but flattening. Will the election results be able to save the trend? So far, the weakness is dominant, and I expect the markets to flip lower.

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Posted by Martin November 04, 2022
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11.03.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

Selling continued today as market participants continued freaking out about FED and now increased the chance of entering a recession. There is nothing we can do about it but patiently wait for this to pass. It will pass someday. The only concern I have is that the FED kept aggressively raising interest rates, but it has had no impact on inflation so far, and their solution is raising the interest rates more. Like now the rates do nothing, raising them more will do something? With this dynamic, the economy will break, people will lose jobs, houses, and the US and the world will go into a deep and painful recession. We can only hope this will not be the case. The VIX is still in contango, this selling may pass, and we may still see the end-of-the-year rally.

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Posted by Martin November 03, 2022
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11.02.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

The FED’s chair Powell announced another rate hike by 0.75 points but then commented that it is too early to talk about a rate pause or slow down. I think it is too late, as the economy is already tipping over into a free fall that the FED will not be able to stop. There is a high chance that Powell will overtighten the economy. The markets didn’t like it and sold off more than 2.5%. However, the VIX is still in contango, which means traders are not taking cover, and the market may reverse and rally again. We will still go to 200-day MA, although it will be a bumpy road. However, this still may change any day.

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Posted by Martin November 02, 2022
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11.01.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK

The weakness in the market continued in expectation of the FED’s policy. The Vix futures are in contango, indicating bullish expectations. If the FED provides its policy of slowing down its QT after the hike this week, the market may rally an additional 10% from now and reach the 4,239 level if this plays out. I guess we will find out tomorrow. Expect a quite volatile market.

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Posted by Martin November 01, 2022
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Technical view: Airbnb (ABNB)

Airbnb reported earnings, and the stock crashed by more than 7% after-hours. In this technical view, we take a look at what happened:
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Airbnb reported Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.79 actual versus $1.53 expected = BEAT

Revenue: $2.88 actual billion versus $2.83 billion expected = BEAT

Nights and Experiences Booked: 99.7 million versus 99.9 million expected = MISS

Airbnb said that Q3 2022 was its “most profitable quarter ever.”

The company guided 4Q revenue between 1.8 billion and 1.88 billion. Analysts expected 1.86 billion. That is in the middle of the guidance. Yet Wall Street sold off. What am I missing? I think I am missing nothing. Wall Street dudes are idiots. And that makes this company a buy in my book:

ABNB is in stage #1. The stock continued its sideways move and refused to participate in last week’s rally. It has a resistance at $129 that the stock needs to clear before moving higher. The tech selloff may have impacted the stock and may resume its uptrend. It is still attempting to morph into stage #2. It is best seen on the weekly chart. If the market resumes a new bull market, the stock will continue higher too. At the current levels, it is a good opportunity to buy (but slowly, do not commit all your money). However, before buying, I recommend waiting for the company to report earnings. If they disappoint, the stock may drop lower.

The stock is overvalued based on the company’s fundamental data. But this is a tech company with a good business model that competes strongly with the hotel industry. And it will trade with a premium to the stock price.
The chart below indicates the price compared to the company’s fundamental data. The orange indicates the fair value dashed line. The stock trades way above that line.
The trend is still weak but attempting to move higher. We invest when everyone panics, and this is the case.

The stock is now BUY

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2022 Week 45 investing and trading report

Here is our investing and trading report:

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

Options Investing and Trading Report

Expected Future Dividend Income

Market value of our holdings

Investing and trading ROI

Old SPX trades repair