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Posted by Martin December 07, 2022
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Technical view: Snowflake (SNOW)


Technical view
 

SNOW is in stage #4. The company had stellar earnings that helped to stop the downward trend but not enough to reverse it. It is still in a declining trend but attempting to break above the 50-day MA. The weekly chart indicates a possible double-bottom process as well. Given the great business model the company has, I think this is a great opportunity to buy this stock cheap. The weekly chart also shows a potential double bottom. But it may change if we crash below.

 
Technical view
 

On a fundamental basis, the stock is still very overvalued, but it will catch up once the company matures over time.
The chart below shows that the stock struggles to gain new momentum and that the uptrend has been broken. It is still pointing to the upside, but the weak trend may fail completely, and the stock may resume a downtrend before investors become optimistic about tech stocks again.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now MODERATE BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, November 26th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin December 03, 2022
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2022 Week 48 investing and trading report


November 2022 is over, and it has been a good month so far. I can’t say that for the 2022 year. The year was bad. The account is down by 35%, and I do not expect it to improve much by the end of the year. But I am not bitter about it or feel bad. I increased my investments beyond my dreams, knowing these investments would pay off when the market improved again. Another headwind to our portfolio is the open options trades that keep the net-liq down (partially also thanks to my broker, who is incapable of keeping it straight). But that is about to change as well.
 

Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is improving:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 48
 

Our trading delivered $818.00 premiums last week, ending November 2022, at $3,555.00 (5.26%) options income. Our net-liq value increased by 0.86% to $67,626.73 value. That is still a terrible result but improving. Our overall account is now down -35.37% YTD.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $67,626.73 +$581.34 +0.86%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$818.00    
01 January 2022 Options: +$8,885.00 +8.36%  
02 February 2022 Options: +$10,009.00 +10.34%  
03 March 2022 Options: -$1,662.00 -1.47%  
04 April 2022 Options: +$1,047.00 +1.19%  
05 May 2022 Options: +$8,604.00 +11.32%  
06 June 2022 Options: +$9,691.00 +13.73%  
07 July 2022 Options: +$8,717.00 +11.39%  
08 August 2022 Options: +$7,987.00 +12.15%  
09 September 2022 Options: +$2,997.00 +5.76%  
10 October 2022 Options: +$3,979.00 +6.36%  
11 November 2022 Options: +$3,555.00 +5.26%  
Options Premiums YTD: +$63,423.00 +93.78%  
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: $143.49    
01 January 2022 Dividends: $303.38    
02 February 2022 Dividends: $732.81    
03 March 2022 Dividends: $393.74    
04 April 2022 Dividends: $337.31    
05 May 2022 Dividends: $343.99    
06 June 2022 Dividends: $445.80    
07 July 2022 Dividends: $367.66    
08 August 2022 Dividends: $683.58    
09 September 2022 Dividends: $555.20    
10 October 2022 Dividends: $359.89    
11 November 2022 Dividends: $723.16    
Dividends YTD: $5,361.70    
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $203,074.86 +$10,770.39 +5.60%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.37%    
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 15.73%    
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $134,372.70 63.02%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $28,033,112.17 13,147.80%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $4,158,487,577.61 1,950,370.84%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $6,753,104,036,122.85 3,167,271,020.36%  
Portfolio Alpha: 88.88%    
Sharpe Ratio: 5.52 EXCELLENT  
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.43    
CAGR: 269.42%    
AROC: 60.04%    
TROC: 8.42%    
Our 2022 Goal
2022 Dividend Goal: $4,800.00 111.70% COMPLETED
2022 Portfolio Value Goal: $151,638.03 44.60% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 38.64% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 6.76% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 
Last week we have received $143.49 in dividends bringing our November’s dividend income at $723.16.


Last week, we bought these dividend growth stocks:

 
– 88 shares of MAIN @ $38.32
 
I now own 100 shares and started selling covered calls against this position.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity week 48
 

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout week 48

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week, we purchased no growth stocks.

 

I started saving cash in the ICSH fund again to raise it to a 60% / 40% cash level.
 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week options trading delivered a gain of $818.00 making our November options income $3,555.00.

 

We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered +$135.00 gain.


 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 
We received $143.49 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.37% at $67,626.73 market value.

 
Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $134,372.70, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $7,326.83 annual dividend income ($610.57 monthly income). We are 5.45% of our 10 year goal of $134,372.70 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC week 48
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 
Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $192,304.47 to $203,074.86 last week.

In 2022 we plan on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading week 48
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.
 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 5.26% monthly ROI in November 2022, totaling a 93.78% ROI YTD. We will exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -35.37%.
 

Our options trading averaged $5,285.25 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $63,423.00 in trading options in 2022. As of today, we have made $63,423.00 trading options.
 

Old SPX trades repair

 

We traded our SPX put credit spread strategy, which you will be able to review in my next report. The SPX strategy has held well so far, and our signals kept us from opening new aggressive trades.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq week 48

This drawdown of our account is extremely discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. I am not selling any stock positions despite the losses. I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.
 

Account Stocks holding

 
TW Account holdings week 48
 

Last week, S&P 500 grew 40.76% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 15.80%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 fell -24.01% and our portfolio -13.98%. We are outperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.
 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 
TW Account holdings Growth YTD
 

Our stock holdings are starting to outperform the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.
 

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.76% of that goal.
 

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 38.64% of that goal.
 

Our 2022 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 44.60% of this goal.

I am afraid our account is no longer on track to accomplish our 2022 year goal. We may accomplish our dividend and options income goals, but our account balance (Net-Liq) will be down significantly. Of course, if the market finally rallies by the end of the year, it may all change, but if not, we will fail.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 
TW Options Trading Income week 48
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income week 48
 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends week 48
 

We planned to make $4,800.00 in dividend income in 2022. As of today, we received $5,361.70. This week, we completed our 2022 dividend goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $7,326.83 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $610.57, and our current monthly dividend income is $446.81.
 

TW Received vs Future Dividends week 48

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 
 




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Posted by Martin December 03, 2022
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2022 SPX put credit spreads trading review – week 48


Last week I dedicated myself to opening a few debit trades (that will have an impact on our profit as it is shown as expense/loss now, and it will be marked up as a gain or loss when we close the trade) and also fixing some of the old trades to make sure they expire worthlessly. No new trades were opened besides that.
 

Our trades delivered a $135.00 gain. Our account weekly trading is down by 0.36% while SPX gained 1.13%.
 

Our SPX account is up +958.83% since the beginning of this program, and we have $37,844 in unrealized gains.

 

Initial SPX trade set ups

 

I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS strategy per week. Today, the account is up at $38,117.95. However, due to the recent bear market, many trades are still open, and the funds are tied to those open trades. The trades need to expire or be closed for a profit to release the funds.
 

Our SPX strategy is designed as directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators (primarily based on moving averages and volume profiles) and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend-following strategy.” We open the trade if we have a bullish signal and a bullish trend. If we do not have a signal, we stay away. We also trade credit call spreads when we have bearish signals. In a choppy market, we stay away from or trade very short expirations (usually 1 or 2 days or up to 7 days), but the trading is muted as we need a trending market. Unfortunately, today, we do not have a trending market (yes, overall, it is a down-trending market, but for short-term trades, it is choppy and not trending).
 

Here you can see all our trades:

 
SPX PCS account value
Click on the picture above to see the entire list.
 

Last week trading

 

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +958.83% gain last week.
 

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021): $3,600.00
Last week beginning value: $37,982.95
Last week ending value: $38,117.95 (+0.36%; total: +958.83%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy: $19,995
Current capital at risk: -$11,844
Unrealized Gain: $37,844 (-319.52%)
Realized Gain: -$3,775 (31.87%)
Total Gain: $34,069 (-287.65%)
Win Ratio: 56%
Average Winner: $321/td>
Average Loser: $479

 

SPX PCS account value
SPX PCS account value
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index
 

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

 

 

Note that if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can only subscribe to one level and send us an email that you want to be added to other levels.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or comment in the comments section. Thank you!

 
 




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Posted by Martin December 03, 2022
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November 2022 $100 Challenge account review


The markets started improving, and we are saving cash to start selling options again and reinvest proceeds into the dividend-paying stocks. I plan on having enough cash next month to start selling some spreads. We have a lot to catch up with.
 

Accumulation phase

 
The account is still underperforming our goal but started growing again. We are investing in stocks of our interest and building equity positions first. After we build our equity, we will be wheeling the positions.
 

November 2022 Challenge account review

 

MONTH GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
October 2021: $615.00 $632.37
November 2021: $718.00 $659.00
December 2021: $821.00 $802.08
January 2022: $924.00 $594.29
February 2022: $1,027.00 $283.87
March 2022: $1,130.00 $301.74
April 2022: $1,233.00 $350.56
May 2022: $1,336.00 $428.82
June 2022: $1,439.00 $459.70
July 2022: $1,542.00 $641.27
August 2022: $1,645.00 $653.32
September 2022: $1,748.00 $617.92
October 2022: $1,851.00 $829.46
November 2022: $1,954.00 $1,003.01

 

$100 Challenge account review

 
From the chart above, the red dot (line) indicates the current account value, compared to the blue line (plan). Our account is underperforming our goal. But I expect this to improve with the market. We will keep buying assets and monetize them once we accumulate enough shares.
 

November 2022 Overall Challenge account review

 
The chart below indicates our account value compared to the overall goal and plans to grow the $100 investment into a $75,000 portfolio. As of today, we are still at the beginning of our journey.

YEAR CONTRIBUTIONS $$ GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
Year 0: $100.00 $100.00 $100.00
Year 1: $1,300.00 $1,336.00 $459.70
Year 2: $2,500.00 $3,016.96 $1,003.01
Year 3: $3,700.00 $5,303.07  
Year 4: $4,900.00 $8,412.17  
Year 5: $6,100.00 $12,640.55  
Year 6: $7,300.00 $18,391.15  
Year 7: $8,500.00 $26,211.96  
Year 8: $9,700.00 $36,848.27  
Year 9: $10,900.00 $51,313.64  
Year 10: $12,100.00 $70,986.56  

 

$100 Challenge account review goal

 

November 2022 Challenge account Income

 

Total Invested in Stocks $1,016.81
Total Unrealized Profit -$137.93
Total Realized Profit -$1.17
Strangles Income -$1,316.00
Dividends Income $39.03
Deposits Total $1900.00
Cash $115.39
Net-Liq $1,003.01

 

If you want to see what investments we take and what trades and strategies we will use to grow this small account, join our program today and grow your money. We engage in safe investments, select strategies to maximize winning trades, and grow our portfolio. And you can do it too, today! We do not provide quick rich promises, gambling, or reckless strategies. We want our portfolio to grow steadily and preserve our capital while maximizing returns.
 

As a member, you will have access to the following features:
 

 

 




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Posted by Martin December 03, 2022
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HFEA November 2022 strategy report


Another month is over, and as the market keeps improving, our HFEA strategy is improving three times faster. That is the beauty of this strategy of buying leveraged ETFs. Though I am no longer following the true HFEA strategy but just buying 3x leveraged ETF (SPXL), I still call it an HFEA strategy.

Initially, I dedicated $15,000 to this strategy. That represented approx. 15% of our portfolio. When the SPXL underperforms the market and my position goes down and is below my cost basis (my position is in red), I add new shares to my portfolio. I deposit cash and buy shares. Once this bear market ends, and trust me, it will, as no bear market lasts forever, I will stop buying new shares but trim the position and save cash from selling for the next bear market. This is a standard balancing approach. Keep my position at about 15% of my main portfolio. When it moves to 20% (or more), I sell enough to bring the position back down to 15%. If it moves down to 10%, I will buy enough to bring it back to 15%, and so on.

In today’s bearish market, I am adding new cash and buying even though it hurts my short-term net-liq. However, I expect this to change soon.
 

MONTH NET-LIQ PROFIT/
LOSS
PROFIT/
LOSS %%
November 2021 $13,441.91 $0.00 0.00%
December 2021 $14,773.72 $1,331.81 9.91%
January 2022 $12,597.96 -$2,175.76 -14.73%
February 2022 $11,665.69 -$932.27 -7.40%
March 2022 $12,483.01 $817.32 7.01%
April 2022 $8,694.65 -$3,788.36 -30.35%
May 2022 $6,923.49 -$1,771.16 -20.37%
June 2022 $12,199.81 $5,276.32 76.21%
July 2022 $15,551.55 $3,351.74 27.47%
August 2022 $13,414.80 -$2,136.75 -13.74%
September 2022 $10,454.70 -$2,960.10 -22.07%
October 2022 $16,809.60 $6,354.90 60.79%
November 2022 $18,659.90 $1,850.30 11.01%

 

Our HFEA strategy increased value in November 2022 by 11.01% while the entire market gained 4.60%. Overall, the HFEA portfolio is up 38.82% while the entire market is down -10.26%. I think that is a good result.
 

HFEA charts

 
HFEA net-liq 11
Strategy Net liquidation value
 

HFEA net-liq 11
Strategy vs SPY Net liquidation value
 

HFEA vs SPY
Strategy performance vs. SPY
 

September 2022 was not a good month for this strategy as the SPXL lost significant value (remember, the leveraged ETFs work both ways – they go up 3 times, but they also go down 3 times).
 
 




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Posted by Martin December 02, 2022
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12.01.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The market broke above 200-day MA, hurray! But now that level needs to hold. We may see a consolidation at the current levels, investors taking profits, or whatever else may happen here. We may also see a complete failure as more bears will be stepping in. I will also start adding cheap butterflies to my portfolio, like the one we opened today. It costs $90 to open, but if the market goes down, we may get up to $5,000 in profits (if it plays well). And if the market doesn’t tank, we only lose $90.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 01, 2022
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11.30.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Well, that was it today. Powell said what we expected anyway, that the FED is slowing down their interest rate hikes, and the market melted up this time. It amazes me how irrational the market is. Just a few days, even today morning, everybody was selling everything in fear of recession; Morgan Stanley’s analysts Mike Wilson just issued a double-digit selloff warning, and in the afternoon, the same people were chasing the market up 3.28%. Well, that brought the market above its 200-day MA. Will it stay there? Or will we erase it all tomorrow? This week will be crucial.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 30, 2022
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11.29.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets continued melting down mainly on China news about the Covid lockdowns and unrests that may impact companies like Apple negatively. But I think there is still a year-end rally ready, and I expect a 5% rally in December. Eventually, China will have to reopen and stimulate the fading economy. Many investors make mistakes in treating China the same way as any democratic western country, but China doesn’t operate in such a way. Western investors put too much political influence and can’t separate it when investing and trading (when Trump was in power, Democrats wanted mess and chaos in the economy, now when Biden is in power, Republicans want a mess and chaos in the economy, I am guilty with this too, but with China, it doesn’t work that way). And in all this, the Chinese companies hold relatively well. That tells me this selling pressure will fade away.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 30, 2022
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Technical view: Tesla (TSLA)


Technical view
 

TSLA is in stage #4 of the trend. It broke lower again although it bounced, and it is now attempting to go higher. However, even with this bounce, there is no trend changer at all. The stock is clearly in a full bearish trend. The weekly chart shows it in a better and straight pattern. The stock is clearly getting to its weekly 200-day MA, and let’s hope that it will work as a support. If it doesn’t hold, we may see the stock decline lower. We have potential targets at $150, $110, and $62 if we break below the 200-day MA.

 
Technical view
 

However, the recent news about Elon Musk and his escapades with Twitter worries me. It is pure nonsense, in my opinion. He bought a company for $44 billion that is not worth that much. According to some reports, just interest on the loan Musk had to take to buy Twitter is somewhere near $1.5 billion a year. Twitter doesn’t generate enough income or cash flow to pay the loan. Twitter’s cash flow has been declining and negative since 2019, and with Musk’s current changes on the platform, advertisers seem to be fleeing away. And here is the problem. Musk is known to manipulate Tesla stock, and I am afraid that to pay his obligations to Twitter, he will tap into Tesla, ultimately sending the stock lower (as we have seen a few times in the past already).

TSLA is still extremely overvalued, but this company may be trading at a premium for many years until it matures. A head and shoulders pattern is still in play, and since the price broke below the neckline, we will most likely see a $160 – $150 decline. That level also corresponds with a 200-day moving average and is a significant support. Both levels may act as a magnet, so unless the market is optimistic and bears finally give up, the chances of further declines are better than an uptrend. But this may change quickly.

Given my worries about Musk, Twitter, and Tesla, I no longer think it is a good time to buy this stock. I want to wait for all my concerns to resolve before committing more funds to this company. The trend is down, the risk of Musk using Tesla as a piggy bank is high, and I do not see any stronghold anymore.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now SELL
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, November 26th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin November 29, 2022
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11.28.22 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets started the week with a sharp decline (-1.52%) but the VIX is still in solid contango which indicates that this selling may be short-lived. There is a lot of negative news which may push this market lower but within the expectations, possibly to the 3,915-3,900 level. However, the path to end year rally is still open (at least for now).

 
Market Outlook
 

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