I started putting some money into Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and two other coins. Yes, I never believed in crypto but yes, I changed my mind. I still treat crypto with enormous dose of caution and invest in it just for the sake of speculation. I am not a “hodler.” I tied my investing to volatility metrics and when i spot the crypto environment changing, I will get out. And when it bottoms, I will get back in to ride a recovery (if any).
Right now, my signal says “accumulation,” so I am buying. I buy $10 a day worth of BTC and $10 a day worth of ETH. When the signal says “risk off” I will move to cash. And, in the meantime, I am learning about Bitcoin. And, LOL, I learned about halving and cycles, and stuff like that. One thing I learned from crypto fans is the halving and boom that should follow after. But here is what I have noticed about this halving cycle:
Is something changing this time? Why no boom like the last three cycles?
Historical Halving Pattern
2012, 2016, 2020 halvings: Each was followed by a strong “supply shock” rally. New issuance dropped by 50%, miners had to sell fewer coins, and demand remained the same or grew. That imbalance helped fuel parabolic runs.
Typically, these rallies took 12–18 months after the halving to peak.
Why 2024/2025 Looks Different
Macro environment: Unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin is now highly tied to global liquidity (Fed rates, dollar strength). 2022’s rate hikes crushed risk assets, and that “macro headwind” has lingered.
ETF flows: The 2024 halving coincided with Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. This created steady inflows rather than a blow-off speculative frenzy. The effect has been dampened but longer lasting.
Market maturity: As Bitcoin’s market cap grows, each halving represents a smaller relative supply shock. In 2012 it was massive, now it’s modest compared to daily trading volumes.
Why We Might Not Get a “Boom”
Earlier cycles had retail mania — ICOs (2017), DeFi/NFTs (2021). This cycle, the narrative is institutional adoption (ETFs, custody, corporate balance sheets). That tends to create a grind-up, not a blow-off top.
If institutions dollar-cost-average into ETFs, the price may flatten into a controlled uptrend rather than overshooting into a mania.
What This Means for Me (and you)
This observation (flat vs boom) is key: If Bitcoin doesn’t deliver the classic parabolic top, then metrics like the Rainbow Chart, Puell Multiple, or Pi Cycle may lose predictive power — they rely on past blow-off behaviors.
A more likely scenario could be: Slow grind higher ? maybe $120k–$160k.
Less extreme correction afterward.
Crypto behaving more like a maturing asset class than a wild bubble.
Bottom line: We may be witnessing the first cycle where the halving effect is absorbed by ETFs and institutional buying, creating a smoother curve instead of a sharp boom-and-bust. That actually fits my volatility based approach perfectly — because instead of betting on timing a “supercycle top,” I just use volatility signals to sidestep extremes and hopefully avoid 80%+ drawdowns in crypto.
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