Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for the week of February 2nd to February 6th. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules.

Last week, the markets reversed the pre-market decline and paired all losses. Then rallied on FED. We briefly topped 7,000 level for the first time ever. That seemed like a legitimate rally but it was a bull trap. So, what can we expect next week?

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. As per my strategy and goals for 2026, I invest the proceeds to high yield dividend ETFs and for growth stocks, if possible, I use LEAPS and Poor Man’s Covered Calls strategy. The next week I expect likely range trading early in the week (unless ISM is a big surprise), because everyone is waiting for the mega-cap stack + Friday jobs. The market can be drifting up again until the news. It might be chopping around 7,000 level. But then we have a week heavy on news and earnings. This can shake the market in any direction and predicting the direction is impossible. Will 7,000 hold as support on pullbacks, or reject as resistance? Watch reactions to data. A “good” number that sells off is a red flag (positioning/valuation fatigue). Mega-cap guidance tone – not just beats/misses — listen for demand/capex language, margins, and any “macro caution” framing. Friday jobs report: watch the triad, payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly earnings, because Fed expectations price off the set. In the upcoming storm of data, hard to say. And on top of all this we have more than ugly consumer sentiment. That spills into investors and trader’s sentiment too. Retail investors are extremely bearish and may get hurt (while also blaming the market being manipulated) if data come slightly good and the market reacts positively. I am personally in the cautious-bearish camp too, and that is why I am still aggressively building cash reserves and stay conservative.

The trend is still bullish but weak. We still see many knocks on the support. The market still struggles to move higher, the trend delta volume worsened to -7.65%. We need good numbers next week to reverse this weakness. So far, I am skeptical.

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq100 fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. I still hold LEAPS but as you can see below the trend is rapidly deteriorating. I also have covered calls against my LEAPS and if we see further declines, I may move the covered calls in the money to protect the position. So far, this trend clearly shows how week the underlying index is. This hurts my LEAPS and the only way to offset the losing value is selling covered calls.

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin broke down below the support from a long consolidation pattern. This makes it a trend continuation.

This was the trend a few days ago showing the breakdown:

This is not good for BTC. Upon a breakdown, buyers stepped in and pushed the crypto back to $84k. That was a good attempt. Unfortunately, it didn’t last and another sharp sell off followed. Today, we see a strong continuation to the downside, range support decisively violated. The price discovery is no longer in the “peek below” the support. It is aggressively trading below support. The previous support at $84,000 is no longer defended.

What we saw so far:

• Prior impulsive sell off from 125k > 80K
• Long consolidation (box) sideways trading (I hoped that to be a phase 1 consolidation prior to reversal and move higher. Instead this appears to be a bearish trend continuation.).
• Breakdown attempt.
• Now, momentum expansion out of the box.

The measured move trading tells us that the path to ~40k is open. Will it go there? Maybe, maybe not. It can be a slow decline, churning down, or a rapid sell off. Today’s decline is a serious damage to the bull case. The market wants lower prices. We will wait for this last candle to settle and possibly on the next bounce attempt we will open a short position (instead of using futures, I will be buying $BITI ETF to short BTC with a stop loss).

Happy trading/investing!

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

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We are opening a new put spread this morning:

Order Summary

Sell to Open 1 SPX 01/30/2026 Put 6770

Buy to Open 1 SPX 01/30/2026 Put 6755

Limit GTC @ 1.05 Credit

Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for the week of January 26th to January 30th. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules.

Our TACO is on it again. When he fucked everything and everyone up in Davos, embarrassed our country as no president has ever done before, Canada decided to trade with China instead of the US. Our man-child McTitty Taco got offended and over the weekend was threatening Canada with 100% tariffs while Republicans are enabling him. I hope in November, Republicans receive their wakeup call from the voters.

While the Idiocracy continues, the weekend trading is down and so far all indicates that futures may open lower:

Of course, this may be just an overreaction to our man-child Narcissist in chief and futures or even cash may be bought once trading opens, the overall trend is concerning. The market is pretty much flat, struggling to make new highs (since the end of October 2025):

Are we in danger? Not yet:

But the market is stalling. It may mean two things – 1) building a new base for a new rally leg up, or 2) we are creating a topping pattern. If we break down from this pattern, expect serious drawdown.

The sentiment is bearish as everyone expects a crash. This is structurally bullish – until it isn’t. The sentiment doesn’t crashes the markets, it just postpones them. They do not happen because everyone expects them, in fact, the markets can keep grinding higher while the rest of the world is bearish. Crashes happen because something else changes – either funding stress, credit crunch, policy mistakes (we are close), or volatility feedback loops (self fulfilling event “prophecy” when rising volatility sparks selling which then forces more liquidations).

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. As per my strategy and goals for 2026, I invest the proceeds to high yield dividend ETFs and for growth stocks, if possible, I use LEAPS and Poor Man’s Covered Calls strategy. The market struggled to move higher and this weakness seems to continue. Trump continues wrecking the US economy, ICE keeps shooting citizens in Minneapolis, which may spark a general strike in the entire state. This all brings uncertainty. And we can see it in the trend which is still extremely weak (Delta volume -5.91%). Unless something changes, I expect the market struggling. All this points to a need of aggressively raising cash.

We see too many knocks on the moving average. And as the “law of technical analysis” goes, “the more the trend is challenges, the more likely it will break.”

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq100 fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. I still hold LEAPS but as you can see below the trend is rapidly deteriorating. I also have covered calls against my LEAPS and if we see further declines, I may move the covered calls in the money to protect the position.

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin failed to hold the trend and I was stopped out of the position. We are in cash again.

Happy trading/investing!

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

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Donald Trump, our TACO of the United States chickened out again. He no longer wants Greenland. He will no longer impose tariffs on the EU countries… As the moron in chief said, it is a long infinite process.

Why the markets reacted to his announcement about tariffs in the first place? Didn’t investors already learned that he is an old senile unintelligent coward? I don’t support him (I hate him) and his policies, but it was obvious that he would chicken out again.

Did you buy the sell off yesterday?

Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for the week of January 19th to January 23rd. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. As per my strategy and goals for 2026, I invest the proceeds to high yield dividend ETFs and for growth stocks, if possible, I use LEAPS and Poor Man’s Covered Calls strategy. The market struggled to move higher but it is still grinding up, although not as decisively as I would think so. The uptrend is extremely weak and it actually got worse last week (Delta volume -5.84%). This points to extreme weakness and the market may fail. The volatility is also spiking. The signals are negative and there is a chance that the markets will continue lower.

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq100 fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart turned negative so I moved all my TQQQ positions to cash. Last week I got buy signals so I bought LEAPS and started selling covered calls but the trend faded quickly. I am still in the position but what we are seeing here is the trend rolling over and this also points to a potential downtrend. If this continue, we may be getting out again.

The trend is bullish but extremely weak, weaker than last week (Delta volume 0.94%):

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin is now behaving properly and grinding up again. It broke up from the base, it is above the 50 day MA which is now sloping up. The chart indicates that the uptrend may continue. We opened a small position at the breakout and we are now waiting for this pullback to resolve. If it resolves, we will be adding another small position.

Happy trading/investing!

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

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