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Posted by Martin December 01, 2022
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11.30.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Well, that was it today. Powell said what we expected anyway, that the FED is slowing down their interest rate hikes, and the market melted up this time. It amazes me how irrational the market is. Just a few days, even today morning, everybody was selling everything in fear of recession; Morgan Stanley’s analysts Mike Wilson just issued a double-digit selloff warning, and in the afternoon, the same people were chasing the market up 3.28%. Well, that brought the market above its 200-day MA. Will it stay there? Or will we erase it all tomorrow? This week will be crucial.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 30, 2022
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11.29.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets continued melting down mainly on China news about the Covid lockdowns and unrests that may impact companies like Apple negatively. But I think there is still a year-end rally ready, and I expect a 5% rally in December. Eventually, China will have to reopen and stimulate the fading economy. Many investors make mistakes in treating China the same way as any democratic western country, but China doesn’t operate in such a way. Western investors put too much political influence and can’t separate it when investing and trading (when Trump was in power, Democrats wanted mess and chaos in the economy, now when Biden is in power, Republicans want a mess and chaos in the economy, I am guilty with this too, but with China, it doesn’t work that way). And in all this, the Chinese companies hold relatively well. That tells me this selling pressure will fade away.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 30, 2022
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Technical view: Tesla (TSLA)


Technical view
 

TSLA is in stage #4 of the trend. It broke lower again although it bounced, and it is now attempting to go higher. However, even with this bounce, there is no trend changer at all. The stock is clearly in a full bearish trend. The weekly chart shows it in a better and straight pattern. The stock is clearly getting to its weekly 200-day MA, and let’s hope that it will work as a support. If it doesn’t hold, we may see the stock decline lower. We have potential targets at $150, $110, and $62 if we break below the 200-day MA.

 
Technical view
 

However, the recent news about Elon Musk and his escapades with Twitter worries me. It is pure nonsense, in my opinion. He bought a company for $44 billion that is not worth that much. According to some reports, just interest on the loan Musk had to take to buy Twitter is somewhere near $1.5 billion a year. Twitter doesn’t generate enough income or cash flow to pay the loan. Twitter’s cash flow has been declining and negative since 2019, and with Musk’s current changes on the platform, advertisers seem to be fleeing away. And here is the problem. Musk is known to manipulate Tesla stock, and I am afraid that to pay his obligations to Twitter, he will tap into Tesla, ultimately sending the stock lower (as we have seen a few times in the past already).

TSLA is still extremely overvalued, but this company may be trading at a premium for many years until it matures. A head and shoulders pattern is still in play, and since the price broke below the neckline, we will most likely see a $160 – $150 decline. That level also corresponds with a 200-day moving average and is a significant support. Both levels may act as a magnet, so unless the market is optimistic and bears finally give up, the chances of further declines are better than an uptrend. But this may change quickly.

Given my worries about Musk, Twitter, and Tesla, I no longer think it is a good time to buy this stock. I want to wait for all my concerns to resolve before committing more funds to this company. The trend is down, the risk of Musk using Tesla as a piggy bank is high, and I do not see any stronghold anymore.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now SELL
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, November 26th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin November 29, 2022
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11.28.22 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets started the week with a sharp decline (-1.52%) but the VIX is still in solid contango which indicates that this selling may be short-lived. There is a lot of negative news which may push this market lower but within the expectations, possibly to the 3,915-3,900 level. However, the path to end year rally is still open (at least for now).

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 26, 2022
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2022 Week 47 investing and trading report


The year is coming to an end. I expected it to be a bad year for our investing and trading. But looking back, our portfolio didn’t do badly. Yes, we are down overall, as many positions are underwater, but we increased our positions. We generated enough options income, which we reinvested into stocks, and increased our portfolio stocks value by 26% this year. We generated over $62 thousand in options income and reinvested $39,939 back buying stocks. These stocks generated more dividends and options income (selling covered calls). And when the market recovers, I expect all the new stock holdings to outperform and generate income. While others were freaking out, panicking, and selling out of their stocks, I was accumulating as much as possible. Those who were selling will be those same people who later will complain that the market is unfair, rigged, and skewed towards rich people being made richer. No, my friends, the only one to blame is yourself.
 

Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is improving:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 46
 

Our trading delivered $5,371.00 premiums last week, ending November 2022, at $2,737.00 (4.08%) options income. Our net-liq value increased by 4.13% to $67,045.39 value. That is still a terrible result but improving. Our overall account is now down -35.93% YTD.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $67,045.39 +$2,769.07 +4.13%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$5,371.00    
01 January 2022 Options: +$8,885.00 +8.36%  
02 February 2022 Options: +$10,009.00 +10.34%  
03 March 2022 Options: -$1,662.00 -1.47%  
04 April 2022 Options: +$1,047.00 +1.19%  
05 May 2022 Options: +$8,604.00 +11.32%  
06 June 2022 Options: +$9,691.00 +13.73%  
07 July 2022 Options: +$8,717.00 +11.39%  
08 August 2022 Options: +$7,987.00 +12.15%  
09 September 2022 Options: +$2,997.00 +5.76%  
10 October 2022 Options: +$3,979.00 +6.36%  
11 November 2022 Options: +$2,737.00 +4.08%  
Options Premiums YTD: +$62,991.00 +93.95%  
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: $0.00    
01 January 2022 Dividends: $303.38    
02 February 2022 Dividends: $732.81    
03 March 2022 Dividends: $393.74    
04 April 2022 Dividends: $337.31    
05 May 2022 Dividends: $343.99    
06 June 2022 Dividends: $445.80    
07 July 2022 Dividends: $367.66    
08 August 2022 Dividends: $683.58    
09 September 2022 Dividends: $555.20    
10 October 2022 Dividends: $359.89    
11 November 2022 Dividends: $579.67    
Dividends YTD: $5,103.03    
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $192,304.47 +$4,361.22 +2.32%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.47%    
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 15.73%    
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $133,939.08 65.39%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $29,672,640.26 14,486.06%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $4,646,992,070.25 2,268,642.06%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $8,089,478,368,794.87 3,949,249,446.43%  
Portfolio Alpha: 88.83%    
Sharpe Ratio: 5.56 EXCELLENT  
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.45    
CAGR: 271.08%    
AROC: 62.57%    
TROC: 16.33%    
Our 2022 Goal
2022 Dividend Goal: $4,800.00 106.31% COMPLETED
2022 Portfolio Value Goal: $151,638.03 44.21% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 38.31% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 6.70% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 
Last week we have received $0.00 in dividends bringing our November’s dividend income at $579.67.

Last week, we did not purchase any dividend stock.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity week 47
 

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout week 47

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week, we purchased no growth stocks.

 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week options trading delivered a gain of $5,371.00 making our November options income $2,737.00.

 

We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered +$902.00 gain.


 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 
We received $0.00 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.47% at $67,045.39 market value.

 
Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $133,939.08, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $6,890.51 annual dividend income ($574.21 monthly income). We are 5.14% of our 10 year goal of $133,939.08 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC week 47
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 
Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $187,943.25 to $192,304.47 last week.

In 2022 we plan on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading week 47
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.
 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 4.08% monthly ROI in November 2022, totaling a 93.95% ROI YTD. If our options income stays at this level by the end of the year, we will exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -35.93%.
 

Our options trading averaged $5,726.45 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $68,717.45 in trading options in 2022. As of today, we have made $62,991.00 trading options.
 

Old SPX trades repair

 

We traded our SPX put credit spread strategy, which you will be able to review in my next report. The SPX strategy has held well so far, and our signals kept us from opening new aggressive trades.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq week 47

This drawdown of our account is extremely discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. I am not selling any stock positions despite the losses. I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.
 

Account Stocks holding

 
TW Account holdings week 47
 

Last week, S&P 500 grew 39.18% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 15.09%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 fell -25.58% and our portfolio -14.68%. We are outperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.
 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 
TW Account holdings Growth YTD
 

Our stock holdings are starting to outperform the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.
 

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.70% of that goal.
 

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 38.31% of that goal.
 

Our 2022 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 44.21% of this goal.

I am afraid our account is no longer on track to accomplish our 2022 year goal. We may accomplish our dividend and options income goals, but our account balance (Net-Liq) will be down significantly. Of course, if the market finally rallies by the end of the year, it may all change, but if not, we will fail.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 
TW Options Trading Income week 47
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income week 47
 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends week 47
 

We planned to make $4,800.00 in dividend income in 2022. As of today, we received $5,103.03. This week, we completed our 2022 dividend goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $6,890.51 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $574.21, and our current monthly dividend income is $425.25.
 

TW Received vs Future Dividends week 47

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 
 




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Posted by Martin November 26, 2022
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2022 SPX put credit spreads trading review – week 47


We have many open SPX trades that, earlier this year, went in a bad direction. These trades are now in the money. I adopted box trades to help fix these trades. A box trade is a strategy that can be used in many ways. It can be used as a bond (when you buy a box, you store your cash and get a fixed “interest,” and you collect it all at the end of the cycle), or you can use it to collect premium that can be used to offset your other trades (when you sell a box). Of course, selling the box itself will not work if you let it expire in the money. For this to work, the box has to be adjusted too. But it can be done later. In the meantime, you collect enough premiums to adjust two to three trades now and adjust the box a few months later too. And that is what I am doing now to unload many of the trades that turned bad. They are fixed and set to expire worthless, releasing buying power and generating profits.
 

Our trades delivered a $902.00 gain. Our account weekly trading is down by 2.43% while SPX gained 1.53%.
 

Our SPX account is up +955.08% since the beginning of this program, and we have $38,789 in unrealized gains.

 

Initial SPX trade set ups

 

I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS strategy per week. Today, the account is up at $37,982.95. However, due to the recent bear market, many trades are still open, and the funds are tied to those open trades. The trades need to expire or be closed for a profit to release the funds.
 

Our SPX strategy is designed as directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators (primarily based on moving averages and volume profiles) and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend-following strategy.” We open the trade if we have a bullish signal and a bullish trend. If we do not have a signal, we stay away. We also trade credit call spreads when we have bearish signals. In a choppy market, we stay away from or trade very short expirations (usually 1 or 2 days or up to 7 days), but the trading is muted as we need a trending market. Unfortunately, today, we do not have a trending market (yes, overall, it is a down-trending market, but for short-term trades, it is choppy and not trending).
 

Here you can see all our trades:

 
SPX PCS account value
Click on the picture above to see the entire list.
 

Last week trading

 

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +955.08% gain last week.
 

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021): $3,600.00
Last week beginning value: $37,702.95
Last week ending value: $37,982.95 (+2.43%; total: +955.08%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy: $19,995
Current capital at risk: -$12,789
Unrealized Gain: $38,789 (-303.30%)
Realized Gain: -$4,430 (34.64%)
Total Gain: $34,359 (-268.66%)
Win Ratio: 56%
Average Winner: $319
Average Loser: $485

 

SPX PCS account value
SPX PCS account value
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index
 

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

 

 

Note that if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can only subscribe to one level and send us an email that you want to be added to other levels.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or comment in the comments section. Thank you!

 
 




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Posted by Martin November 26, 2022
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11.25.22 – FRIDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Yesterday, the markets were closed. Today, we had a shortened session. The markets closed at 1 pm ET. Many traders and investors were on holiday and not participating. Volume was weak, and price action was muted. We still have no resolution on the direction. The SPX is sitting right below its 200-day MA and slightly retreated from that zone today. None of what we see is bullish. We need bulls to step in and break this pattern. The VIX is extremely bullish, and we are hoping we may finally break above and start a new bullish trend. But we need to wait and see.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 24, 2022
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11.23.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets continued higher when the FOMC meeting minutes indicated that the FED may slow down their interest hike pace. VIX futures are in strong contango so I expect the markets to go higher. But again, the volume is low so this can be deceptive. However, we will see an elevated market by the end of this week for sure. Next week will be important.
Also, markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving Day and on Friday the markets will close early at 1 pm ET.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 23, 2022
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11.22.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The consolidation continues, and I expect the market to continue higher this week. But be careful. Due to the Holidays, many traders and investors are off, so the volume is extremely low. If we see gains this week, the most important thing will be what will happens after the holidays. Will we keep and build on this week’s gains or sell them off? For now, we will go higher (good for credit put spreads or debit call spreads). Next week, we will see.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 23, 2022
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Technical view: ARK Innovation (ARKK)


Technical view
 

ARKK is in stage #4. A week ago, the stock saw a great rebound when ARKK jumped from $32 lows to $40. But that bump didn’t last long. Last week, the stock reversed again and dropped erasing half of the previous week’s gains. The weekly chart provides some hope that the stock may still move into stage #1 or even stage #2 if the weekly trend holds. I still wouldn’t invest in this stock.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now HOLD
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, November 19th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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