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Posted by Martin December 03, 2023
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Contest Announcement: Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge!

Contest voting OPEN from Sunday December 3rd – Wednesday December 6th


Welcome to the Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge!


We’re thrilled to bring you an exciting contest where your forecasting skills could win you a fantastic prize – an Amazon or Cash gift card! Get ready to flex your market intuition and join the fun.
Also, the prize will be increasing every month, so participate regularly for larger prizes!


Last Closing Market Price: 4,567.80 – Friday, December 8th Closing Price: ?????

Contest Gift Card


Contest Rules:


1. Eligibility:


  • Open to participants worldwide.
  • Participants must be 18 years or older.


2. How to Participate:


  • The contest will run every week.
  • A post will be made on our official website every Sunday, opening during regular trading hours.
  • To participate, enter your prediction of the S&P 500 closing price for that upcoming Friday in the comments section of this announcement.
  • When posting, enter a valid email address where you can be reached if you win the contest.


3. Prediction Window:


  • The voting will be open for comments from Sunday to Wednesday. The voting will close every Wednesday at the market close (4:00 pm ET).
  • Comment your vote in the comments section below this post.
  • Only one entry per participant is allowed.
  • All votes made after Wednesday market closing hours will be disregarded.


4. Scoring:


  • The winner will be determined based on the closest prediction to the actual closing price of the S&P 500 on Friday.
  • Decimal points will be considered for precision.

    5. Tiebreakers:


  • In the case of a tie, the participant who submitted their prediction first will be declared the winner.


6. Winner Announcement:


  • The winner will be announced on our official website on the following Sunday.
  • The winner will be contacted privately at his/her provided email address to arrange the delivery of the prize.
  • The prize will be electronic or physical mailed to a provided postal address. For deliveries of the prize expect two to three days for electronic cards and five to ten days for physical cards.
  • The contest will be invalid and cancelled if less than 5 participants vote.


7. Prize:


  • This week, the winner will receive a $50 Amazon or Cash gift card (e.g. Visa gift card) or similar.
  • Prizes are non-transferable and cannot be exchanged for cash.


7. Disclaimer:


  • This contest is for entertainment purposes only.
  • The closing price of the S&P 500 will be based on reputable financial news sources.
  • We reserve the right to cancel the contest at any time without liability. Participants acknowledge that the cancellation of the contest does not incur any legal harm or claims against the organizers.
  • By participating, participants agree to abide by the terms and conditions of this contest.


8. Have Fun:


  • Remember, this contest is all about having fun and testing your forecasting skills. Good luck to all participants!


Get ready to showcase your market wisdom and take a shot at winning the Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge. May the most accurate predictor win!


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Posted by Martin December 03, 2023
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What’s ahead this week in the economy and the market?

The commencement of the Federal Reserve’s blackout period is underway. The Federal Open Mouth Committee is set to maintain radio silence until after the forthcoming FOMC meeting on December 12-13. The economic indicators slated for this week are poised to sway their sentiment, providing assurance that the robust labor market is undergoing a desired cooling without veering into recession territory. Furthermore, the week’s inflation metrics are anticipated to affirm a moderation trend, aligning with their expectations of economic stability. Consequently, the likelihood of the committee maintaining a status quo for the third consecutive meeting is high, prompting contemplation of a well-deserved break for the rest of the month. The financial markets, both stocks, and bonds, have already factored in our envisioned “immaculate disinflation” scenario during the preceding month, with expectations of continued Santa Claus rallies throughout December.


On the employment horizon, the week commences with the release of October’s JOLTS report on Tuesday. Indications from comparable sources suggest that job openings persisted at a high level, hovering around 9.5 million.

As we approach Friday, the spotlight shifts to November’s employment report, expected to unveil a robust gain of approximately 180,000 jobs, notably driven by the return of autoworkers following their recent strike. Despite this positive outlook, signals from continuing unemployment claims and the jobs-hard-to-get series point towards a potential uptick in the unemployment rate for November. Wage inflation, on the other hand, is likely to sustain its moderating trend during the same period.

Wednesday brings the revised report on Q3 productivity and labor costs, which has the potential to influence stock and bond prices similarly to the preliminary report from the previous month. The initial findings indicated a notable uptick in productivity at 4.7% (saar), accompanied by a 0.8% decline in unit labor costs (ULC). Expectations are that the revision may see an upward adjustment in productivity and a corresponding downward revision in ULC, given the upward revision of real GDP for Q3. The year-over-year ULC, a determinant of underlying inflation, stood at a modest 1.9% during Q3 and could see a downward revision.


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Posted by Martin December 03, 2023
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Jamie Dimon’s Cautionary Economic Outlook: A nuanced perspective amidst uncertainties

During the recent New York Times DealBook Summit, Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, voiced concerns about the economic landscape, issuing a cautionary perspective on the ongoing fight against inflation.

Dimon emphasized the unparalleled scale of government deficits and debt, suggesting that these financial challenges could persist in the foreseeable future. He pointed to essential investments required for expanding the green economy and Europe’s need to address its energy requirements as potential contributors to sustained deficits.

Dividend investing

Additionally, Dimon underscored two significant factors potentially fueling inflation: the restructuring of global trade relations and the remilitarization of countries worldwide. According to him, these geopolitical shifts have the potential to introduce both danger and inflation into the economic landscape.

In his warning, Dimon highlighted the possibility of rising interest rates, both in the short term and the 10-year rate, which could, in turn, lead to a recession. This cautionary note aligns with his belief that various global dynamics pose risks that should not be underestimated.

When questioned about the current strength of the economy, Dimon expressed skepticism about its sustainability. He attributed the current surge in corporate profits to robust consumer spending fueled by substantial government support. Dimon cautioned that once this spending diminishes, corporate profits could experience a downturn.

Dimon’s assessment of the U.S. economic situation underscored the extensive fiscal stimulation and quantitative easing as significant contributors. He likened these measures to injecting “drugs” into the economic system, creating a temporary “sugar high.” This metaphor emphasizes the transient nature of the current economic boom, suggesting that it might not be built on sustainable, organic growth.


Why Dimon May Be Wrong:


However, it’s crucial to consider alternative perspectives that challenge Dimon’s cautious outlook. Some economists argue that the robust fiscal measures and investments in critical sectors could indeed foster sustainable growth. They posit that government support has been a necessary stimulus for economic recovery, especially during unprecedented global challenges.

Moreover, proponents of a more optimistic view contend that while risks exist, economic resilience and adaptability could mitigate potential downturns. The ongoing technological advancements, the green economy’s expansion, and the adaptability of corporations in navigating challenges may contribute to a more sustained and resilient economic recovery.

In essence, while Dimon raises valid concerns, the complexity of economic dynamics allows for diverse interpretations. Acknowledging both cautious and optimistic perspectives is essential for a comprehensive understanding of the economic landscape and effective decision-making in uncertain times.


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Posted by Martin December 02, 2023
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Unleashing the Power of Options Trading: A Strategy That Defies Common Myths

Delving into options trading might seem daunting, especially with the plethora of warnings echoing from financial advisors. The narrative often revolves around risk, the gamble of losing money, and the unsuitability for the average investor. However, these cautionary tales are often regurgitated without personal experience, stemming from a reluctance to step outside conventional investment wisdom.

Options trading

While brokers are mandated to issue warnings, it’s essential to recognize that options trading doesn’t solely entail complex strategies. A straightforward approach, such as selling puts, can yield profits that may defy conventional belief.


Breaking the Mold


Contrary to the ominous warnings, I’ve personally averaged a remarkable 45% annual profit over the last three years by employing a put-selling strategy. This isn’t a “too good to be true” scenario but rather a testament to the potential within options trading.


Selling Puts: A Grounded Strategy


Options trading, specifically selling puts, doesn’t necessitate a plunge into intricate tactics. It’s about adopting the right mindset as an investor. Here are some steps to shift your perspective:

  1. Align with Dividend Stocks: Focus on selling puts against stocks you want to own, particularly dividend-paying stocks.
  2. Strategic Strike Price: Choose a strike price at which you’re comfortable owning the stock if assigned.
  3. Expiry and Premium Selection: Tailor your approach based on your account size. Opt for longer expirations for smaller accounts and vice versa. Prioritize premium collection.
  4. Market Analysis: Assess the stock’s trends, supports, and resistances. Make informed decisions based on your bullish or bearish expectations.
  5. Defend Your Premium: If the stock goes against your projection, have strategies in place to defend the premium, whether by rolling the option or accepting the stock.
  6. Never Buy, Always Sell: Maintain a stance of selling options, leveraging time decay to your advantage.


Demystifying the Complexity


Contrary to popular belief, you don’t need an in-depth understanding of option Greeks or complex valuation principles. The focus should be on grasping the basics and utilizing them effectively.

  1. Stock Watchlist: Create a watchlist of stocks you want to trade.
  2. Broker Approval: Ensure you have the necessary approvals from your broker to engage in options trading.
  3. Platform Choice: Opt for a reliable platform like ThinkorSwim or any other that suits your preferences.
  4. Funding Requirements: Whether cash-secured puts or margin trading, have the necessary funds in place. If using margin, be cautious and ensure you can cover potential assignments.

    Unlocking the Power of Options


    Understanding puts is fundamental to this strategy. A put option grants the right to sell a stock at a specified price within a certain timeframe. By selling a put, you’re essentially receiving a premium, even if it means potentially buying the stock at a lower price.


    Why Dividend Stocks?


    The beauty of selling puts against dividend-paying stocks lies in their stability. Unlike volatile market panics, these stocks, typically from mature companies, tend to recover swiftly. Even if assigned, you’re acquiring a stock that pays dividends, turning the situation into a win-win.


    Learning from Success Stories


    Success stories abound in the options trading world. Look at self-made millionaires like Teddi Knight and “Karen the Supertrader.” Their journeys exemplify the potential within options trading when approached with a strategic mindset.


    Embrace the Opportunity


    Are you hesitant about venturing into options trading? Fear not, as many have successfully navigated these waters. Options trading, particularly selling puts against dividend stocks, offers a unique avenue to generate income and acquire quality stocks. Embrace the opportunity, learn the ropes, and embark on your journey towards a flourishing investment portfolio.

    If you’re unsure where to start, feel free to reach out. I’m here to assist you in setting up trades, enabling you to build your money-making machine—one that collects dividends and options premiums.


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Posted by Martin December 02, 2023
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Condors in the Clouds: A Hilarious Tale of Trading Triumph

Hey there, fellow financial daredevils and stock market acrobats! Today, we’re diving into the wild world of options trading with a side-splitting story that’ll have you laughing all the way to the bank (or maybe the virtual bank, since it’s the 21st century and all).


Our protagonist, let’s call them Captain Condor, recently embarked on a two-day rollercoaster ride in the stock market, armed with nothing but an adventurous spirit, a keen eye for strategy, and a possibly lucky rabbit’s foot (the jury’s still out on that one).

Picture this: Captain Condor, donned in a cape made of stock certificates and wielding a keyboard like a sword, set out to conquer the mythical beast known as the SPX (S&P 500). With nerves of steel and a glint in their eye, Captain Condor decided to tame this financial beast with the legendary Iron Condor strategy.

Our Condor had $10 wide wings and it’s body spread all the way to 4,495 / 4,455 put side and 4,645 / 4,633 call side. And we only had two days of gliding in this still waters (or skies) of Wall Street.

Now, for the uninitiated, an Iron Condor is like the Swiss Army knife of options trading. It involves simultaneously selling a put spread and a call spread, creating a sweet spot where the underlying asset (in this case, the SPX) can frolic freely without triggering financial chaos.

Our hero Captain Condor, with the grace of a Wall Street ballerina, executed their plan flawlessly. Selling options here, buying options there – it was like orchestrating a financial ballet. The market, unaware of the spectacle unfolding, continued its daily routine of ups, downs, and sideways shimmies.

As the first day unfolded, Captain Condor watched the market with bated breath, occasionally muttering words of encouragement to their options as if coaxing a horse to victory. The SPX danced around, teasing the edges of the Iron Condor’s wingspan but never quite breaking free. It was a close call, but Captain Condor emerged unscathed, pockets jingling with a modest profit.

Day two, however, brought a plot twist that even Hollywood couldn’t script. The market, like a mischievous imp, decided to throw a curveball at our intrepid trader. But Captain Condor, undeterred, adjusted their strategy on the fly, turning potential disaster into a comedy of errors for the market itself.

In a surprising turn of events, the SPX played right into Captain Condor’s hands. It seemed that even the market couldn’t resist a well-executed Iron Condor. The financial gods smiled upon our hero, and by the end of the second day, Captain Condor proudly counted a cool $131 in profits.

In fact, we had over 40 Captain Condors flying around since September when we started opening Crumbs trades and almost all of them were a great success. Don’t believe me? Check this spreadsheet then.

And there you have it, dear readers – a tale of triumph in the face of financial uncertainty, where a fearless trader armed with nothing but wits and a clever strategy danced with the market and emerged victorious.

So, whether you’re a seasoned trader or a casual observer of the financial circus, remember this: sometimes, all it takes to conquer the market is a dash of strategy, a dollop of humor, and the ability to laugh in the face of financial gravity.

Until next time, happy trading and may your portfolios be as colorful as a circus tent on a sunny day!


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Posted by Martin December 01, 2023
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Elon Musk and the Ad Wars: A Galactic Battle of Clicks and Laughs

In the vast universe of online advertising, one man has boldly gone where few entrepreneurs have gone before – Elon Musk. Love him or loathe him, there’s no denying that Musk’s approach to advertisers is as unconventional as his plans for a colony on Mars. In this blog post, we’ll explore the amusing saga of Elon Musk and his unique stance on advertisers, all while sharing a few chuckles along the way.

Elon Musk


The Elon Musk – Adversary Relationship:


Elon Musk, the man behind Tesla, SpaceX, and a fleet of other futuristic ventures, has always been known for his unorthodox behavior on social media. From tweeting about flamethrowers to contemplating the mysteries of the universe, Musk’s Twitter feed is a digital playground that advertisers both fear and, oddly enough, desire.

Musk’s approach to advertisers can be best described as a love-hate relationship. While he may not be the biggest fan of traditional advertising methods, the allure of a Musk mention on Twitter is like winning the lottery for some advertisers. Musk’s tweets have a tendency to go viral, catapulting brands into the limelight faster than a SpaceX rocket launch.


The Advertiser’s Dilemma:


Advertisers find themselves caught in a cosmic dilemma – should they risk the unpredictable nature of Musk’s Twitterverse, or play it safe with traditional marketing strategies? It’s a question that many marketing teams have pondered as they navigate the uncharted territories of Musk’s social media presence.

Musk, however, seems to revel in his role as the disruptor-in-chief. His disdain for traditional ads has been on full display, with tweets like, “Ads are like a crappy meal you didn’t order,” leaving advertisers scratching their heads and wondering if they should be offended or amused.


A Galactic Battle of Clicks:


In Musk’s universe, the battle for clicks is nothing short of a cosmic clash. While some may argue that his approach to advertisers is a bit too avant-garde, there’s no denying the entertainment value. Musk’s Twitter feed has become a digital spectacle, with advertisers eagerly watching and waiting for the next opportunity to ride the coattails of his online antics.

But is Musk onto something, or is he just trolling the advertising industry for laughs? Only time will tell if his disdain for traditional advertising will lead to a new era of marketing innovation or if it’s simply the manifestation of a billionaire’s eccentric sense of humor.




In the ever-evolving landscape of online advertising, Elon Musk stands as a polarizing figure, challenging the norms and keeping advertisers on their toes. Whether you find his approach amusing or infuriating, there’s no denying that Musk has injected a dose of unpredictability into the world of marketing.

As advertisers continue to navigate the cosmos of social media, one thing is for certain – the Elon Musk-Adversary relationship is a comedic saga that keeps us clicking, scrolling, and wondering what the eccentric entrepreneur will tweet about next. So, buckle up, fellow netizens, as we embark on this intergalactic journey of clicks, laughs, and the perpetual battle for advertising supremacy in the Muskiverse.


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Posted by Martin November 26, 2023
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The Art of Dividend Investing: Maximizing Your Portfolio’s Potential

Dividend investing is a time-tested strategy that has been embraced by many successful investors. It involves purchasing stocks of companies that consistently pay dividends to their shareholders. These dividends are usually a portion of the company’s profits, distributed as cash payments or additional shares of stock. Through dividend investing, investors can not only receive a regular income stream but also build wealth over the long term. In this post, we will explore the benefits of dividend investing and provide insights into how to maximize its potential.

Dividend investing


Stability and Income Generation with Dividend Investing


One of the key advantages of dividend investing is the stable income it provides, making it an attractive option for income-focused investors. Companies that pay regular dividends are usually well-established and have a reliable revenue stream. These companies operate in industries that are less susceptible to economic downturns and market volatility, providing a level of stability to the dividends received.

Dividend payments can be reinvested into additional shares of stock, allowing for compound growth over time. This compounding effect can significantly increase the value of the initial investment, particularly when reinvested dividends are added to the principal.


Long-Term Growth Potential


While dividend investing is often associated with income generation, it can also serve as a powerful tool for long-term wealth creation. Investors who consistently reinvest their dividends can take advantage of the power of compounding to build a substantial portfolio value over time. By reinvesting dividends, investors are effectively buying more shares at different prices, which lowers the overall average cost per share and enhances the potential for future capital appreciation.

Dividend stocks tend to outperform non-dividend-paying stocks over the long run. Companies that prioritize dividend payments often have strong business models, solid earnings growth, and responsible financial management. These characteristics can translate into superior total returns for investors.


Portfolio Diversification


Dividend investing can also be an effective means of diversifying a portfolio. Including dividend-paying stocks from different sectors and industries can help spread risk and reduce the impact of any single stock’s performance. By investing in a range of dividend stocks, investors can create a more balanced and resilient portfolio that can weather market fluctuations.

Dividend stocks typically belong to established companies with proven track records. These companies operate in various sectors, including consumer goods, utilities, finance, and technology, among others. By diversifying across these industries, investors can capture a broad representation of the economy and limit exposure to any one particular sector.


Choosing the Right Dividend Stocks


When it comes to dividend investing, thorough research and analysis are crucial to selecting the right stocks. Investors should consider several factors before adding a dividend stock to their portfolio.

Dividend Yield: The dividend yield is a measure of the annual dividend payments divided by the stock price. It indicates the return an investor can expect from their investment in the form of dividends. While a high yield may be attractive, investors should also evaluate the company’s ability to sustain and grow its dividends over time.

Dividend Growth: The growth rate of a company’s dividends is a key consideration. Companies that consistently increase their dividend payout tend to have a positive outlook and a solid financial foundation. Investors should look for companies with a history of steady or increasing dividend payments.

Dividend Payout Ratio: The dividend payout ratio compares the dividends paid to shareholders with the company’s earnings. A low payout ratio suggests that a company has room to increase future dividend payments, while a high ratio may indicate that the company is paying out more than it can afford.

Financial Health and Stability: Evaluating a company’s financial health is essential before investing. Factors such as revenue growth, profit margins, debt levels, and cash flow should be considered to assess the company’s stability and ability to sustain dividend payments.




Dividend investing offers a host of benefits, including stable income generation, long-term growth potential, and portfolio diversification. By selecting the right dividend stocks and adopting a patient and disciplined approach, investors can build a portfolio capable of generating consistent income and capital appreciation. While dividend investing requires careful research and analysis, it can be a rewarding strategy for those looking to maximize their investment potential.


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Posted by Martin November 25, 2023
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Americans achieved record spending, online shopping up 7.5%

As the news about holiday spending is coming, we achieved a new record! Just this morning, the news reported $5.6 billion on stuff. In the evening the news reported that shoppers spent over $10 billion; 7.5% up compared to 5.4% last year and 3% to 4% expectations.

That’s great. But the question remains: how will Wall Street react to it on Monday? Remember, we are probably still in a “good news is bad news” mentality, and the investors may perceive this spending as bad news, such that the FED may keep rising interest rates because resilient customers may drive inflation up. We have to sit and wait.


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Posted by Martin November 25, 2023
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Americans keep spending

Yesterday, I wrote a post with a link expressing that retailers were worried about Americans not spending enough this holiday season. Their reasoning was:

  1. Dwindling savings
  2. Increased credit card debt
  3. Stubborn Inflation and high prices everywhere
  4. Student loans repayment kick off


They also expressed concerns about shoppers delaying their purchases and ordering less “stuff,” as they saw in October. They predicted that the US holiday sales would rise 3% to 4% compared to 5.4% a year ago and issued “muted annual sales outlook.”

Well, as Mr. Scrooge says: “Bah… Humbug!”


Americans were spending like crazy again. And according to MarketWatch (subscription needed), the hottest items were “Disney Little People figurines (seriously?), and Mattel’s Uno Show ‘Em No Mercy card game (no wonder, people are poor and live paycheck to paycheck when wasting money on this, but hey, spend, so we, the investors, make money).

Shoppers spent a record $5.6 billion this season shopping online, up 5.5% compared to last year. See, retailers were worried that shoppers would spend only 3% to 4% from November to December 2023, but they spent 5.5% on Black Friday stuff only!

What does this tell us? That all these predictors and forecasters are usually wrong. Take their pessimistic views with a salt of the grain (big one), and invest in established good-standing companies. And when the markets sell because predictors and forecasters are freaking out, take it as an opportunity instead of running away with the herd. And if you are trading, trade the chart in front of you, not the forecasts, feelings, predictions, or guts.


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Posted by Martin November 24, 2023
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The best time to buy REITs is now (even if you think otherwise)

People are avoiding REITs, and many said they wouldn’t touch them with a ten-foot-long pole. It is interesting to see the irrational behavior of people not experienced in investing. For example, in 2021, when Realty Income (O) was trading at $70 a share, everybody was rushing in and buying. Everybody was claiming to be a long-term investor investing for a long haul and years of passive dividend income. Fast forward, and Realty Income is trading at $53.31 (24% discount), and they say they wouldn’t buy it.


Some claim that REITs destroyed their investment and that they would never recover as the FED keeps raising interest rates, and that would be a headwind for this investment vehicle. Others are expecting a recession, which would further press the REITs down. People do not want to invest in these stocks for many reasons.

But this is the right time to do so! Many REITs are down 20% -30 %, and if you claim to be a long-term investor, here is your opportunity! So listen to your guts. If you are scared and want to run away from REITs, do the opposite.

Yes, REITs are sensitive to interest rates. But the best time to invest in them is at or near the end of the interest hike cycle. And we see inflation dropping (still high but going lower), which means that the FED is probably done hiking the rates. That will help REITs to recover. And even if we are going into recession, the FED will cut the rates even more. Again, that would uphold REITs. They may tank eventually on fears of people defaulting on their loans and an overall crash in the housing market, but they will recover. Many of them increased their dividend during recessions.

For example, the Realty Income, as mentioned above, tanked almost 50% in 2009 from $28 a share to $15, but if you were brave enough and bought when the stock was down, you would have gained 426% profit by 2020. And that was just a capital gain. Include dividends into the mix, and you will be an ultimate winner. So why are you scared today? Are you investing for the next year or two or 10 or 20 years?

I wrote about REITs on this blog multiple times. In 2012, I asked the same question: “Why are REITs falling and will they recover?” Today, we are asking the same question. And many of the REITs recovered.


But not all REITs are made the same!


Not all REITs are good despite being cheap today. Some are wealth-destroying yield traps, and you should avoid them. For example, in the past (or even in my past article), I wrote about ARR or AGNC. If you look at their history, they are littered with dividend cuts and reverse splits. To inexperienced investors, they may look fine and offer a significant income. They destroy it and bring in long-term losses.

REITs loss

To find a stock worth your attention and money, you want to look at the underlying performance. Is a particular REIT cheap for a reason or because of unreasonable panic in the dumb Wall Street?


REITs to avoid – DHC


DHC is an example of a REIT you would like to avoid. The company was started in 2003, and since 2006, it experienced declining fundamentals. Yet the management kept increasing dividends until 2018—a pure yield trap. In 2018, it all went bust. Earnings loss of 132% forced the REIT to cut the dividend, and recovery is nowhere to be seen.

REITs loss

REITs to avoid – ARR


And we can see the same misery in ARR. The company was founded in 2010 and has had rapid growth. But it was a fake growth spurred by stock dilution and loans. It eventually ended in 2012:

REITs loss

REITs to consider – MPW


Compare the performance of Medical Trust (MPW) with AGNC, ARR, or DHC. You will see a completely different picture. MPW is now a widely hated stock. No one wants it. It was attacked by Hindenburg research and heavily shorted. Many investors must avoid it, citing issues with some of the renters MPW rents their properties. They claimed that MPW is loaning money to their tenants to keep them from defaulting, thus distorting the occupancy and rent income reports. Others argue that MPW is selling their properties to keep their dividends and books in line.

But these were the results of the 2020 Covid distortion, and the company is working hard on improving the situation and their books. The company cut its dividend recently (which it didn’t have to), further enhancing its financial situation.

But if you look at their funds from operations, we saw a decline in 2008 – 2009 (which was obvious) and now in 2023. Anywhere in between, the company was doing great. By 2025, it is expected to have its FFO stabilized and (hopefully) going up again. Nothing has changed for this company, and the recent price decline is nowhere justified. The fair value is around $15 a share, so buying now can provide a significant return.

REITs loss

REITs to consider – ABR


Arbor Realty Trust is less pretty than MPW when looking at their FFO. However, insiders are buying, and their recent operations seem to be picking up (that could be why insiders are buying). Their funds from operations are cyclical. This REIT, unlike MPW, is an mREIT that initiates bridge and mezzanine loans for commercial and residential properties. Many of its loans originate through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac programs. The company has managed to pay dividends since 2012 (it cut them and stopped paying between 2008 and 2012) and has been increasing them since then. The FFO is shaky, and thus, investing in this mREIT needs to be done with caution.

REITs loss

REITs to consider – O


Realty Income is a darling of all dividend growth investors. All of them have this stock in their portfolios. And if you look at their performance, you will see that this is the best time to add this diamond to one portfolio.

The stock has been overpriced since 2009, with a brief decline in 2019 and today. Buying this stock today may be a decade-long opportunity that will not come again. Like it or not, its FFO jumped up in 2021-2022 after the Covid debacle and is estimated to keep going up. The stock’s fair value is around $51 a share, so buying at the current price or below $51 is a great deal. I doubled my holdings in the last few weeks to grab this opportunity.

REITs loss

REITs to consider – OHI


OHI is another medical REIT providing nice dividend income (current yield is 8.44%), with its price decline unjustified. The stock was undervalued for many years but still offers excellent value and entry points.

REITs loss

REITs to consider – VICI


VICI is another undervalued REIT. The company owns almost the entire strip in Las Vegas (except Bellagio), and their lease contracts are 40+ years in the future. And even if the lease expires, I do not think the current tenants, for example Caesars Palace, would pack their belongings and move elsewhere. So this is a done deal. This REIT is also widely hated and dismissed by retail investors (I do not understand their reasonings) and it is providing great long-term value plus increasing dividends.

REITs loss

There are many other REITs out there that you should review and consider investing in. But before you do, do your homework and check their price and dividends history. If you need more time, invest only small amounts and regularly. But if you pick some of the gems today, you will avoid making a big mistake.


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