Posted by Martin January 18, 2026
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Market Outlook for 01/19/2026 – 01/23/2026


Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for the week of January 19th to January 23rd. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:

 

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. As per my strategy and goals for 2026, I invest the proceeds to high yield dividend ETFs and for growth stocks, if possible, I use LEAPS and Poor Man’s Covered Calls strategy. The market struggled to move higher but it is still grinding up, although not as decisively as I would think so. The uptrend is extremely weak and it actually got worse last week (Delta volume -5.84%). This points to extreme weakness and the market may fail. The volatility is also spiking. The signals are negative and there is a chance that the markets will continue lower.

 

 

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged Nasdaq100 fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart turned negative so I moved all my TQQQ positions to cash. Last week I got buy signals so I bought LEAPS and started selling covered calls but the trend faded quickly. I am still in the position but what we are seeing here is the trend rolling over and this also points to a potential downtrend. If this continue, we may be getting out again.

 

The trend is bullish but extremely weak, weaker than last week (Delta volume 0.94%):

 

 

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin is now behaving properly and grinding up again. It broke up from the base, it is above the 50 day MA which is now sloping up. The chart indicates that the uptrend may continue. We opened a small position at the breakout and we are now waiting for this pullback to resolve. If it resolves, we will be adding another small position.

 

 

 

 

Happy trading/investing!

 

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

 




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Posted by Martin January 17, 2026
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01/12/2026 New Trade TQQQ LEAPS (OPEN)


I use TQQQ (3x leveraged ETF) as an aggressive growth vehicle to grow the account fast. This leveraged instrument goes up 3 times when Nasdaq goes up, but it also goes down 3 times when the Nasdaq goes down. So drawdowns can be brutal. This ETF is also not supposed to be a long term holding instrument due to a drag caused by rebalancing decay.

So, you do not want to hold it forever or you want to trade it to avoid down days or significant sell offs and drawdowns. Here is what the ETF would look like compared to its underlying investment:

Although the charts look impressive, you can see a brutal decline which erased all gains despite sharp recovery after that. The problem is not that it dropped hard and then recovered. The problem is that people cannot stomach it. You look at the chart and think, “yeah, no big deal, just hold.” But if your investment suddenly erases 60% or 70% of your investment, people panic and sell.

Another issue you can see that the calculator I used above calculated returns during the strong secular bull market with low volatility. But enter a high volatility bear market and decay will start destroying the value of your investment. There fore, we must use TQQQ tactically and get out when the markets are heading to a trouble.

I use volatility metrics to detect increasing volatility along with a 50 day MA trend following to determine when to get out and when to get back in. Sometimes the signals are choppy but no one will ever know when a “get out” signal is just another “chop” or a true disaster coming event. So I would rather get chopped out when it matters than holding the bag.

Another feature I use to reduce risk is that I buy LEAPS (and sell covered calls) to reduce risk. It is a strictly superior risk-controlled construction. What I do here is a synthetic equity + income overlay that directly addresses both decay and drawdown risk, while preserving upside convexity.

 

I am opening a new LEAPS trade:

Here is our today’s trade:

Buy to Open 1 TQQQ January 15, 2027 (367 DTE) 45 call with delta 0.72 for 19.40 ($1,940.00)

Now we can start selling covered calls:

01/12/2026 STO 1 TQQQ Jan 16, 2026 58 call for 0.32 credit (ROLLED)

We will let the covered call expire unless we need to adjust it.

 


I rolled the covered call to later expiration and lower to collect more premium as the markets were sliding and the LEAPS were losing money:

01/14/2026 STO 1 TQQQ Jan 23, 2026 56 call for 0.78 credit (OPEN)

 


 

Here is a tracker in my spreadsheet:

When the volatility signal tells me to get out, I will liquidate the entire position (LEAPS and CC) and get in cash. Right now, the signal is to stay in and ride it up.

 





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Posted by Martin January 11, 2026
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Market Outlook for 01/12/2026 – 01/16/2026


Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for the week of January 12th to January 16th. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:

 

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. As per my strategy and goals for 2026, I invest the proceeds to high yield dividend ETFs and for growth stocks, if possible, I use LEAPS and Poor Man’s Covered Calls strategy. The market recovered its last week of the year decline and started moving up again. We have a sell signal but that is an invalid one (weak sell). On top of it, we can see the trend strength improving from last two weeks. The uptrend is extremely weak (Delta volume -4.79%) so the trend is fragile. Also the volatility is spiking (so something is brewing under the hood). Yet, I expect this grind up to continue unless something dramatic happens. My expectation is that the next week will be higher.

 

 

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged SPX fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart turned negative so I moved all my TQQQ positions to cash. Last week we saw a good jump up, but again, the trend is weak (non-existent; we are literally moving sideways). So I am still in cash and mostly waiting for volatility signal to tell me to go back in. The 50 day MA is sloping down now so I am waiting.

 

We also had a false sell signal which was invalidated the very next day. The trend is bullish but extremely weak (Delta volume only 4.20%):

 

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin finally moved above its 50 day MA and now retreated back to the moving average. This is crucial to determine whether to buy in or wait. A few things need to happen: 1) the moving average needs to start trending up, 2) the price must remain above the moving average and jump up from it, 3) we need to see a breakthrough above the most recent highs. If those three events happen, I will be buying BTC back. Until then, I still recommend to stay away and am in cash.

 

 

 

 

 

Happy trading/investing!

 

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

 




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Posted by Martin December 30, 2025
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Market Outlook for 12/31/2025


Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for December 31th, 2025. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:

 

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. The market was still sliding lower, this time supposedly on FED being divided on whether to cut rates or not, but because of holidays, this is pretty much a noise. It will probably continue lower tomorrow too. Overall the chart is still bullish and if this ends up being just a minor pullback, it could be a good opportunity to buy in. However, volatility is so low, that I am suspecting a more serious pullback, possibly all the way to 6,800 level.

 

 

 

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged SPX fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart is bullish but weak now. Weaker than yesterday. If this continues tomorrow, we may be existing our TQQQ position and go to safety.

 

 

 

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin is still range-bound and struggles to break up or stage a new rally. It is now trading below the 50 day MA resistance. Because the 50 day MA is sloping down, breaking up above it needs to be confirmed by a successful break, re-test and new rally to enter a position. Not happening yet.  I still recommend to stay away. I am in cash.

 

 

 

 

Happy trading/investing!

 

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

 




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Posted by Martin December 29, 2025
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Market Outlook for 12/30/2025


Here is my outlook for the market and some of my core positions for December 30th, 2025. This outlook is pure technical view based on simple technical rules:

 

SPX – I trade options against SPX (and /ES futures) to generate income that can be invested into dividend stocks or growth stocks. Trading was still muted with a slight retread (the media told us due to NVDA, but no one really knows). It could be expected given the recent rally that a pullback was coming. With no volume, anything can happen now. But the market is still bullish. I still expect it to continue up until the end of the year and we may see an uptrend in the first week in January 2026 too.

 

TQQQ – this is my core growth position. TQQQ is a 3x leveraged SPX fund. It goes up three times the market move. It also goes down three times, so if you decide to ride it down be prepared for two whacks (slaps in your face) – steep drawdown and rebalancing decay. The chart is now bullish but still weak. Today, we had a gap down and a pullback. There was a chance that it would close below 50 day MA and change the overall picture. The end of the session rally changed it and TQQQ finished above the support.  I am now in TQQQ position (I fully converted my holdings into  LEAPS) and started also selling covered calls. So far the trades are showing nice profit but I am ready to get out should the trend change.

 

 

BTC – not a big fan of Bitcoin, but trading it for a good potential of good gains if you catch the trend. Bitcoin staged a rally but it was decisively rejected at 50 day MA. It is creating a base pattern (range bound stage 1) and we need to wait to see which direction BTC wants to go. If we break up from the base, we can see a new rally up. Of course, we may see the opposite too. Bears still have an upper hand here.  As it is approaching the 50 day MA we will need to decide how to play it, but since the MA trend is down, we will most likely have to wait and see rather than jumping in right away. However, this consolidation pattern tells us one thing: the longer the pattern lasts, the most meaningful and significant the breakout will be. And if we break up, expect fast and strong rally up. If not, brace for another leg down. I still recommend to stay away. I am in cash.

 

 

 

Happy trading/investing!

 

Here is my entire spreadsheet with all positions.

 




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Posted by Martin December 29, 2025
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12/29/2025 New Trade NVDA LEAPS (OPEN)


We are opening LEAPS against Nvidia (NVDA) so we can start selling covered calls against the position while still being exposed to the stock’s growth. Instead of owning 100 shares of NVDA which would cost us $18,824 we could buy 1 LEAPS contract for $8,370 instead, gain the same (or similar) exposure to the stock’s growth and also start selling covered calls.

Here is our today’s trade:

Buy to Open 1 NVDA January 15, 2027 (382 DTE) 115 call with delta 0.87 for 83.70 ($8,370)

Now we can start selling covered calls:

12/29/2025 STO 1 NVDA Jan 16, 2026 215 call for 0.25 credit (ROLLED)

 

We will let the covered call expire unless we need to adjust it.


01/08/2025 STO 1 NVDA Feb 20, 2026 220 call for 1.23 credit (OPEN)


 

 




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