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Posted by Martin February 15, 2023
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Technical view: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)


Technical view
 

NFLX is in stage #2. Netflix continues moving higher despite naysayers who think the stock is doomed because of the subscription sharing limitations and them canceling their subscription. But investors do not see it as a problem, at least not now. I expect the stock to reach 200-day MA on a weekly chart at $410 a share, but this process may take some time, and we may even see a few pullbacks on the way up. There will be resistance at $360 a share. The stock seems to stall now and possibly seeing the much-needed pullback. That makes the stock a “hold” for now.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company’s revenue is slowing down (during 2022 we saw a significant reversal from rapid revenue growth). That may be concerning if we see the continuation:

 
Technical view weekly
 

The free cash flow of Netflix is quite horrible. It is a zig-zag move and most of the time between 2014 and 2020 the company was burning cash.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Unfortunately, the company is burdened with large debt and not enough cash to cover it. If interest rates keep rising higher, this may be a problem.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The current price action makes the stock overvalued on a fundamental basis again. I think the new subscription plan will be positive for the company and will be reflected in future earnings (not this earnings quarter, but we may see an impact as soon as Q1 2023). But given the current valuation and financial conditions of the company, I think the stock is a hold now.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Technical view weekly
 

The stock is now HOLD
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Sunday, January 28th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin February 14, 2023
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02.13.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets rallied ahead of the CPI expectations. Now all technicals are out of the window because the price is driven by emotions and the news from the FED and economic data. That can change everything. If however, the report comes better than expected, or even as expected, we may see a rally all the way up to $4,200 or even $4,300. If the report will be bad, a slump to $4,000 or even below is possible.

 
Market Outlook
 

The deteriorating trend was somewhat repaired today. We are still in a sideways channel and need to wait for the market to tell us what direction it wants to go. The Ichimoku chart below also improved.

 
Market Outlook
 

Trend forecasting suggests that we would see a rally, but as I said above, tomorrow’s market will be news driven so the chart below may not happen at all.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 10, 2023
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02.09.2023 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

As expected, we had a zig-zag day. Sort of. The market went up until about noon, then after the bond auction the yields bumped up and investors sold off their shares. It still baffles me how irrational the markets are. Maybe I should stop rationalizing it. An example is Google. The investors sold off the stock after a bad presentation of their AI chatbot. News media posted that investors lost $100 billion yesterday after the debacle. But if investors were dumping shares just because of that, then they are idiots and deserve the losses. I was buying and I will be buying more Google shares.

 
Market Outlook
 

The trend is deteriorating as can be visible on all charts. It’s not the end of the world, overall we are still in a bullish trend, though it is weak. The chart above is indicating that we may be re-testing the downward-sloping support line (previously the bear market downtrend line). The Ichimoku chart is still bullish though deteriorating too. We are still good as long as all the bullish odds are in place. But caution is needed. We can slip more.

 
Market Outlook
 

Trend forecasting suggests that we should see a bullish trend tomorrow. But that suggestion is not supported by other charts anymore and I expect this trend will not happen. It will likely be another zig-zag day or a straight downtrend tomorrow.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 09, 2023
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02.08.2023 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


I was traveling the last couple of days and unable to write my regular market outlooks. I am back to the standard routine and here is my view on the market.

Market Outlook
 

The market started trading in a very narrow range on the top of the rally. We see rejection at the 4,150-ish level. The market participants are skittish – freak on, freak off. One day they cheer Powell on his remarks about the “disinflation process” the other day they are again worried about FED. Heck, I am tired of their mood. But if we stay in this range, we should be OK.

 
Market Outlook
 

Exhaustion is visible on the Ichimoku chart as well. It could be just a slowdown after a strong rally or consolidation of the gains, or it could be the beginning of trouble. Since I do not see any bad news, as of yet, on the wall, I tend to say this is just a consolidation and time to not worry. If it changes, we will change our stance too.

 
Market Outlook
 

Today, we were supposed to see a recovery at the end of the day but it didn’t happen. But the markets never move the way we want. The forecasting is just a series of trend calculations. It doesn’t and cannot take into account moody investors with their poopy or cheering pants.
So tomorrow? What to expect? Anything. Possibly another zig-zag day. If they will be scared more than usual we may break below 4,100 or resume a rally.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 03, 2023
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02.02.2023 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets continued higher again with a selloff at the end of the day (as expected). Bears are hastily becoming bulls but we have to start being careful as we are way overextended to the upside. The skittish investors can turn bearish quickly. They are now greedy and piling up into worthless stocks like Carvana (CVNA) or Bath and Beyond (BBBY) and when the mood changes, they will get burned and sell everything again. We are definitely now in stage #2 of the trend.

 
Market Outlook
 

The Ichimoku chart is very bullish and extends to the upside. We need to watch it carefully for any changes in the chart to unload our trades. Until then we can stay bullish.

 
Market Outlook
 

My expectation for tomorrow is bullish. I think investors will continue piling into stocks, so Friday will end up higher. There is no news that could turn it down, and with no news, the market tends to go higher. Expect a strong rally tomorrow.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 02, 2023
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02.01.2023 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The bears keep getting it wrong. They are in unison convincing themselves on social media that this market is just a bear market rally and they refuse to accept that the market already adapted to the new FED policy. That is why the markets have big selloffs but reluctant rallies. Investors become bearish and skittish very fast and they sell everything very quickly. But they refuse to believe that the market has changed and they still believe in the bearish narrative. I must admit, I fall into the opposite category. I am a perma-bull (thanks to my long-term view) so admitting that the market has changed is difficult for me too. But I still see this bull market intact and this bear market was just a small cyclical bear within a secular bull market.

 
Market Outlook
 

Today, we got the news from the FED. They raised the rates by 0.25 points as expected. The market sold off in the morning in a knee-jerk reaction which turned violently bullish after news reporters pressed Powell on being too aggressive after which he admitted that the disinflationary process has begun and is improving. As soon as he said that, the markets skyrocketed. All the bears became suddenly bulls.

 
Market Outlook
 

The Ichimoku chart clearly shows a very strong bullish trend (which is now due for a pullback, so if it happens, be prepared for all the bears coming out of their holes). The market was volatile, exactly as expected. Tomorrow, I expect a zig-zag move. I think the market will sell today’s rally but it will probably recover it by the end of the day.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 01, 2023
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Technical view: Icahn Enterprises L.P. (IEP)


Technical view
 

IEP is in stage #2. The stock started declining as is typical but then reversed, possibly on the news that Carl Icahn reached the deal with Crown Holdings to add the activist investor’s members to the Crown’s board. The weekly chart shows a sideways pattern.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company’s revenue is erratic but improving since 2020. If it keeps going higher, it may have a positive impact on the stock pushing the price higher:

 
Technical view weekly
 

Free cash flow is also choppy which may explain the stock price choppiness:

 
Technical view weekly
 

But the company has more cash in hand to pay its $7 billion debt (despite the recent cash decline, possibly resulting from the recent acquisitions).

 
Technical view weekly
 

The stock is more like a bond. It pays a great dividend but offers very little growth. This lack of growth is possibly a result of stock dilution that is extremely high. So, buying this company is for income than appreciation. In this case, I want to be buying at lower prices in the price cyclical decline.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Technical view weekly
 

The stock is now HOLD
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Sunday, January 28th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin February 01, 2023
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01.31.2023 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The market reversed yesterday’s and today’s losses as the economic data showed weakness. Consumer confidence also dropped. We are in an environment where bad data are good news. This gave investors hope that the FED will not be aggressive anymore and raises the rates by 0.25 points as is widely expected. In the end, the markets finished up 1.46%

 
Market Outlook
 

This is good for this new bull market. It continues improving providing more and more bullish odds to the market’s narrative. The Ichimoku chart below is full-blown bullish now. We still may see a pullback as the cloud is narrow (we want it wide, and we want the market ideally to hug it, not run away from it).

 
Market Outlook
 

The market pretty much acted as forecasted. We went down and then recovered (as forecasted). The only difference was that the recovery was stronger than expected. But that is not that important. What matters is the trend so we can position our trades accordingly. And this trend is improving so far.
Tomorrow, we will have the FOMC interest rate hike announcement, and after that Powell will be speaking. That will provide a lot of volatility to the markets. It is a wild card so far. Generally, I expect that Powell will do as expected and the markets will go higher.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin January 31, 2023
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01.30.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Abysmal day at Wall Street today. The markets started selling off before even opening and there was only a small attempt to recover in the middle of the day, but then we sold off again. But the markets do not go straight up. It goes in waves and after last week’s strong rally, we ran into significant resistance. It was obvious that we will pull back. One day of selling is not a deal breaker. It would be if it continues.

 
Market Outlook
 

The longer-term outlook is bullish (by a longer-term I mean a bit longer than a mid-term but not as long as long-term… I know…silly). This means we will most likely continue trying to break above the resistance and rally a bit before we see a bigger pullback or even another 50% retracement. But if this outlook fails (for example the FED screws the markets up again this week, we will fall like a rock instead).

 
Market Outlook
 

The Ichimoku chart improved better than it was last week. We now have all three bullish checkboxes marked. That means, if we clear the hurdles in front of us, we may expect a nice bullish move.
Today’s move didn’t follow the pattern, so let’s see if tomorrow will be any better. Tomorrow, we should see selling continue, but we may see some early bounce to recover the losses from today. We may also see the beginning of the FED meeting rally when investors will be rushing into the market prior to the FED’s announcement and selling afterward. We could go up to the POC of the weekly volume profile and bounce down from there. The price is below VWAP so I would expect selling to continue.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin January 29, 2023
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January 2023 $100 Challenge account review


We were selling spreads successfully last month, but we entered a TSLA call spread right before investors started chasing the stock up again. We are now rolling the trade higher, and hopefully, we will be able to get out of the trade. I think a 70%+ run-up is not justified, and we may see a pullback. But in the meantime, there will be many investors and believers sucked into this stock which may prop it further up before it reverses and tanks.

Besides that, our Challenge account continues grinding higher, and as the market stabilizes, I expect it to improve more.
 

Accumulation phase

 
The account is still underperforming our goal but started growing again. We are investing in stocks of our interest and building equity positions. We also started selling Iron Condors and spreads. We got rid of QYLD stock, and we will no longer invest in this ETF as its performance is terrible, and its dividend income doesn’t look as enticing as it looks on paper. We want a stable company that provides some price appreciation and dividend growth. So we replaced QYLD with MAIN.
 

January 2023 Challenge account review

 

MONTH GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
December 2021: $821.00 $802.08
January 2022: $924.00 $594.29
February 2022: $1,027.00 $283.87
March 2022: $1,130.00 $301.74
April 2022: $1,233.00 $350.56
May 2022: $1,336.00 $428.82
June 2022: $1,439.00 $459.70
July 2022: $1,542.00 $641.27
August 2022: $1,645.00 $653.32
September 2022: $1,748.00 $617.92
October 2022: $1,851.00 $829.46
November 2022: $1,954.00 $1,003.01
December 2022: $2,057.00 $1,152.65
January 2023: $2,160.00 $1,221.22

 

$100 Challenge account review

 
From the chart above, the red dot (line) indicates the current account value, compared to the blue line (plan). Our account is underperforming our goal. But I expect this to improve with the market. We will keep buying assets and monetize them once we accumulate enough shares.
 

January 2023 Overall Challenge account review

 
The chart below indicates our account value compared to the overall goal and plans to grow the $100 investment into a $75,000 portfolio. As of today, we are still at the beginning of our journey.

YEAR CONTRIBUTIONS $$ GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
Year 0: $100.00 $100.00 $100.00
Year 1: $1,300.00 $1,336.00 $459.70
Year 2: $2,500.00 $3,016.96 $1,221.22
Year 3: $3,700.00 $5,303.07  
Year 4: $4,900.00 $8,412.17  
Year 5: $6,100.00 $12,640.55  
Year 6: $7,300.00 $18,391.15  
Year 7: $8,500.00 $26,211.96  
Year 8: $9,700.00 $36,848.27  
Year 9: $10,900.00 $51,313.64  
Year 10: $12,100.00 $70,986.56  

 

$100 Challenge account review goal

 

January 2023 Challenge account Income

 

Total Invested in Stocks $1,173.64
Stocks Unrealized Profit -$69.87
Stocks Realized Profit -$57.18
Strangles Income -$1,316.00
Spreads Income $543.00
Dividends Income $44.14
Deposits Total (lifetime) $2,100.00
Cash $581.70
Net-Liq $1,221.22

 

If you want to see what investments we take and what trades and strategies we will use to grow this small account, join our program today and grow your money. We engage in safe investments, select strategies to maximize winning trades, and grow our portfolio. And you can do it too, today! We do not provide quick rich promises, gambling, or reckless strategies. We want our portfolio to grow steadily and preserve our capital while maximizing returns.
 

As a member, you will have access to the following features:
 

 

 




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