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Posted by Martin January 08, 2023
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2023 Week 01 investing and trading report

The first week of 2023 is over, and the markets started looking promising again. The same could be said about my trading and investing, except that Tasty Works broker sucks at calculating and displaying a correct buying power, so I have no idea whether I had money or not to trade. They have a problem calculating the BP when multiple SPX spreads open and keep them overnight. Then your account BP goes out of wack, and they show negative BP. But by negative, I mean huge negative. Currently, they show my BP as -30,000!!! That’s almost all my cash value! How come I have $40,000 cash but minus $30,000 negative BP!? I do not get it. So, I decided to transfer my account to another broker that doesn’t have that problem. Thus my account is locked as it is in the middle of a transfer, and all I had to do was to close some trades that were expiring next week to prevent the failure of the transfer.

Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is still a shit show, and I hate it:

Cash - Net-Liq - BP 01

Our trading delivered -$1,487.00 loss last week, ending January 2023, at -$1,487.00 (-2.28%) of options income. Our net-liq value increased by +4.58% to $65,241.95 value. Our overall account is up 4.80% YTD and -37.65% from when the bear market started.

Here is our investing and trading report:


Account Value: $65,241.95 +$2,986.17 +4.58%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: -$1,487.00
01 January 2023 Options: -$1,487.00 -2.28%
Options Premiums YTD: -$1,487.00 -2.28%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: +$81.52
01 January 2023 Dividends: +$81.52
Dividends YTD: +$81.52
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $175,044.91 +$395.12 +0.23%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.62%
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 15.73%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $135,989.21 68.87%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $32,800,034.46 16,611.62%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $5,544,253,292.86 2,807,894.91%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $10,639,559,613,450.50 5,388,419,984.99%
Portfolio Alpha: -7.56%
Sharpe Ratio: 7.70 EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.47
CAGR: 253.61%
AROC: -1.56%
TROC: 7.06%
Our 2023 Goal
2023 Dividend Goal: $8,000.00 1.02% In Progress
2023 Options Income Goal: $70,000 -2.12% In Progress
2023 Portfolio Value Goal: $96,532.51 67.59% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 37.28% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 6.52% In Progress


Dividend Investing and Trading Report


Last week we have received $81.52 in dividends bringing our January’s dividend income at $81.52.

Last week, we did not purchase any dividend stock.

Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

Account Equity week 01

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

Annual Dividend Payout week 01


Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report


Last week, we purchased no growth stocks.


Options Investing and Trading Report


Last week options trading delivered a loss of -$1,487.00 making our January options income -$1,487.00. As mentioned above, I am transferring my account to another broker, and I had to close some trades last week that would otherwise interfere with the transfer. I will re-establish those trades once the account is transferred.


We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered $0.00 gain. Again, I didn’t trade last week because of the transfer of the accounts.


Expected Future Dividend Income


We received $81.52 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.62% at $65,241.95 market value.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $135,989.21, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $7,024.65 annual dividend income ($585.39 monthly income). We are 5.17% of our 10 year goal of $135,989.21 dividend income.

Future Divi on YOC week 01

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.


Market value of our holdings


Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $174,649.79 to $175,044.91 last week.

In 2023 we planned on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

Stock holdings trading week 01

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.


Investing and trading ROI


Our options trading delivered a -2.28% monthly ROI in January 2023, totaling a -2.28% ROI YTD. We plan to exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -37.65% from when the bear market started. However, in 2023 our account is up 4.80% YTD.

Our trading averaged -$1,487.00 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make -$17,844.00 in trading options in 2023 (I hope not). As of today, we have made -$1,487.00 trading options.


Old SPX trades repair


Last week I did not trade SPX due to an account transfer.


Investing and trading report in charts


Account Net-Liq


TW Account trading Net-Liq week 01

This drawdown of our account is highly discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. Despite the losses, I am not selling any stock positions (except strategically sold Amazon and Netflix, which I will buy back). I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have realized losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.


Account Stocks holding


TW Account holdings week 01

Last week, S&P 500 grew 34.65% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 9.84%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 grew +1.92% and our portfolio +0.36%. We are underperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.


Stock holdings Growth YTD


TW Account holdings Growth YTD

Our stock holdings are underperforming the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.52% of that goal.

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 37.28% of that goal.

Our 2023 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 67.59% of this goal.


Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income


TW Options Trading Income week 01

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income


TW Options Annual Trading Income week 01


Our dividend goal and future dividends


TW Received vs Projected Dividends week 01

We planned to make $8,000.00 in dividend income in 2023. As of today, we received $81.52. This week, we completed our 2023 dividend goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $7,024.65 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $585.39, and our current monthly dividend income is $6.79.

TW Received vs Future Dividends week 01


I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button, so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.


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Posted by Martin January 07, 2023
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My Goal 2023

The 2022 year was brutal, but I expected it would be difficult to meet our goals. Yet we met them anyway. Not all of them, but those important ones were met. And it is time to set new goals for 2023.


2022 Goal review


Buying dividend growth stocks and monetizing those positions goal


We set up a goal to purchase dividend stocks and monetize those positions.
At the beginning of the year, we set the following goal to purchase these stocks:

Goal 2022 start

For the year, we modified the goal by adding more shares of our interest.

Goal 2022 start

Last year, I was buying stocks like crazy. All dividends and premiums from selling options were reinvested. I am satisfied with the results. We increased the equity value in our portfolio by $44,896 (33.6%). Given how volatile and dangerous the market was in 2022, I think this was a great result:

Goal 2022 start

We accomplished this goal 100% despite its floating value (the plan developed over time, but the original part was fulfilled).


Developing SPX trading goal


Last year, I started trading SPX spreads again. It generated high income, and I made $37,687 (1,046%) gains. The only issue is that many SPX trades remain open (I rolled them). So this gain is partially deferred. I consider the received premium a profit or loss when realized (received). But if the trade is still open, the Net-Liq value is blocked by the max risk buying power reduction. That’s why the Net-Liq does not always reflect the gains received.


Developing and managing 15% of the portfolio in the HFEA strategy goal


This was the most unfortunate goal in the entire 2022 year. At first, I started trading leveraged ETFs like SPXL, but I wanted to add protection. So, I adopted an HFEA strategy adding TMF as downside protection. This failed miserably. Bonds didn’t work in 2022 at all. So I abandoned this strategy and returned to buying the bullish leveraged ETFs and accepting higher volatility. The HFEA account was down -12.22% in 2022. I still think this is a great strategy, and I will continue building it up.


Increase Net-Liq value of the account by 30% goal


We failed this goal miserably. Increasing the Net-Liq by 30% meant the ending value would be $151,638.03. We failed this goal as our Net-Liq ended down by 40.51% last year. At the end of the year, Net-Liq was $62,255.78 only.

Net-Liq Goal 2022


Dividend Income goal


We set a goal to receive $4,800 in dividends last year. We received $5,868.88 in dividends (an increase of 122.27%). I am happy with this result. We also accumulated enough shares to start receiving $7,135 in dividends.

Dividend Goal 2022

Options Income goal


We didn’t set up an options income goal last year. I was not sure how to quantify it. But we exceeded the previous year’s income.

Dividend Goal 2022

Despite the bear market and our account’s Net-Liq being down by 40%, I consider 2022 a successful year. We were able to navigate the markets without significant losses; in fact, we were able to invest more money and increase our base. We own more shares and companies than at the end of 2021, and once the bear market ends, we will see these shares rise in value, propelling our account up. I could not achieve this goal in 2008, 2018, or 2020. In 2020 I even thought that I missed the opportunity. This year, I took this opportunity to buy low.


2023 Goal summary

In 2023, I will focus on the following tasks:

  1. Continue buying dividend growth stocks and increase holdings by 20%
  2. Buying growth companies and increasing holdings by 100%
  3. Monetizing my stock positions.
  4. Continue trading SPX spreads.
  5. Continue building the HFEA strategy.
  6. Increase the Net-Liq value of the account by 30%
  7. Increase cash equivalents to $60,000


Dividend growth stock purchasing goal


In 2023, I will buy dividend growth and high-yield dividend stocks. These are two separate beasts. Typically, high-yield dividend stocks do not provide any capital and dividend growth. They act as bonds. They have little to no growth but pay high dividends.

The standard dividend growth stocks provide low yield, and it takes time to grow the dividends and capital appreciation. It may take 5 to 10 years to see any meaningful results.

To close the gap between investment and dividend growth, high-yield dividend stock will step in and help. I will be getting high dividends now while waiting for the dividend growth stocks to kick in.

For 2023, I set a goal to receive $8,000 in annual dividend income. I am also setting up a goal to raise my dividend stock portfolio holdings by 20% in 2023. As of today, I have $134,357.50 in dividend stocks. I plan to have $161,229 or more at the end of 2023.

Dividend Goal 2023


Growth stocks buying goal


As of today, I have $44,006.66 in growth stocks. My goal for 2023 will be to double these holdings and own up to $88,000 in growth stocks. The stocks in focus are Amazon (AMZN), Airbnb (ABNB), Google (GOOGL), etc. It is also a goal to reach 100 shares of each company.

Overall, here is my stock (dividend and growth) purchasing goal for 2023:

Stocks Goal 2023

Monetizing stock holdings goal


My goal with all my stock holdings is to reach 100 shares and sell covered calls against these positions. I will also be selling strangles and spreads (and strive to cover them by saving cash to cover the put side of the strangle; and owning 100 shares of the underlying stock to cover the call side).

Originally, I expected to make 30% trading options. But I exceeded that goal and made 104.86%. In 2023 I believe we will have more success, so I will set a goal to make $70,000 in options income (112%).


Continue trading SPX spreads goal


Trading SPX spreads strategy is a part of our alert program that you can subscribe to. Last year the trading didn’t work very well as the trading was directional, and we had a volatile market with too many false signals. Instead of taking losses, we rolled the trades away.

We use “box trades” to collect enough credits that can be used to roll the old trades. Our goal for 2023 will be to eliminate the old trades using boxes and adjustments.

Our goal for 2022 was to grow our SPX account to $10,000. We fulfilled that goal and ended with $41,287. For 2023 I plan to increase this account to $60,000 by the end of the year.


Investing 15% in HFEA goal


Although I keep calling this strategy “HFEA”, it is not a true HFEA strategy anymore. The strategy is to keep buying 3x leveraged ETF (SPXL) and maintain approx. 15% of my entire portfolio in this ETF. We will not be trading in and out of this ETF.

But if the holdings drop below 15% (which initially equated to a $15,000 value) by 25%, we will start adding new shares to bring the value up to $15,000.
When the ETF goes up by 25%, we will sell shares to bring the value down to $15,000. This is a typical rebalancing process.

The proceeds from the ETF trimming will be invested in Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). When the ETF falls, we will sell SCHD and buy SPXL.


Increase Net-Liq value by 30% goal


I created a 10-year plan on growing my portfolio (all accounts together), and for 2022 my goal was to reach a $151,638.03 net liq value. We failed this goal.
In 2023 I expect the Net-Liq to grow to $96,532.51, of course, given that we will not hit the recession.

I still have goals from last year that are long-term:

6-year Portfolio Value Goal:  achieve $175,000.00 net-liq value.

10-year Portfolio Value Goal:  achieve $1,000,000.00 net-liq value.

These goals are well underway, and if my portfolio growth keeps growing at the estimated pace, I should be able to achieve the 6-year goal in 2026, and the $1M goal is currently failing to be accomplished at all. It goes well beyond 10 years.


Increase cash equivalents to $60,000 goal


Part of my problem in 2022 was that I didn’t have enough cash for trading and investing. Many times, I had to skip a buying opportunity or even sell newly acquired positions to release cash and buying power.

I also believe that my current broker caused many issues with our buying power as they were not able to properly display my buying power to make a proper judgment about whether I had enough money or not. So, I decided to change brokers, and I am currently transferring my accounts from Tasty Works to TD Ameritrade. The transfer should be done by January 16, 2023. Until then, I cannot trade the account as the transfer may be rejected (it already happened once due to expiring options in that transfer window).


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Posted by Martin January 06, 2023
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01.04.2023 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK – Another day of going nowhere

Market Outlook

Institutional investors are still on vacation and will return to the markets next week. That means retail investors drive this market and spook themselves easily with every market move. It could be seen in today’s market price action. A relatively big move early in the morning before FED’s meeting minutes were published, and selloff right after that. But the retail investors who spooked themselves do not have enough money to push the market deep into the red. Last year, when Powell said “inflation,” markets lost 3%. Today? Sleepy day.

Market Outlook

But it still can all change tomorrow. My expectations are that the investors will (as the media like to say) digest the meeting minutes and sell the market. Trend forecasting suggests it.

Market Outlook

Other than that, we have a motionless and directionless market. It sits right at the support and waits for resolution. In this case, staying aside and waiting for the trend is best. The Ichimoku cloud is pretty much negative and suggests that more selling may still come, so let’s stay put and wait.

Market Outlook

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Posted by Martin January 06, 2023
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01.05.2023 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK – CPI can rock it

Market Outlook

Another sleepy day. We received labor data this morning indicating a strong labor market. That rocked the market, and investors panicked again, thinking that the FED would go amock and raise the rates more, higher, longer, and indefinitely. But they forget that the FED has its hands tight already unless they want to crash the entire economy and the world with it. And the labor data is not the only piece of the puzzle here. Overall, inflation is easing, although we still may wake up to a nasty surprise tomorrow.

Market Outlook

Although the market sold off today, it was a mild selling again. We saw a 1.20% decline at first, but then Bullard said that the FED might slow down the rate hikes, and the market recovered some of the losses (it was down only 0.70% at some point). Yet the market finished down -1.00%. But the most important thing is it still holds the 3,800 support. As of now, it is a good thing.

Market Outlook

The price is inside the green cloud and above the red cloud support line. The line is stepping up slowly, and the market must stay above it. If we break down, we will have a problem.
The blue line is still deep below the thick red line, which is not good. We need these lines to reverse. But as of now, these lines and the cloud changing into the red is not good for the market. We may fail.

Market Outlook

The expectation is that the market will continue lower or sideways. But tomorrow, before the market opens, we will receive CPI data. That can completely change the narrative. If CPI comes out weak and slowing, the market will likely rally. If the CPI shows inflation rising again, expect a sell-off. It is a wild card and unpredictable. Anything can happen, so the best strategy now is to stay aside.

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Posted by Martin January 04, 2023
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01.03.2023 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK – choppy market ahead

Market Outlook

The market responded to bad data as forecasted with sharp selling in the morning, but it managed to recover almost all losses by the end of the session. This is the same choppy behavior as we saw last week:

Market Outlook

The market is still indecisive and going sideways. That is good unless the support at 3,800 fails and we crash. If this level holds, we may see a resumed buying and a new rally.

Market Outlook

Tomorrow, we will probably see a choppy market which may finish down by the end of the day.

Market Outlook

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Posted by Martin January 03, 2023
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01.02.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK – Selling set to continue

Market Outlook

The year 2022 ended lower and in a recession-fear mode, but we have already started seeing some analysts turning bullish, saying we have seen the lows. Have we? Or are we heading lower in 2023? The economy is still strong and resilient to fallout. The labor market is seeing some layoffs, but unemployment is still extremely low. I believe we are seeing a return to the median or a return to normalcy. Before, businesses were overinvesting, oversupplying, and over-employing. Now they are correcting their mistakes, and that brings a decline cycle. We may see some slowdown, and that is normal. After a hot boom, there will be slow growth or even contraction, but that doesn’t mean a recession. Unfortunately, the new breed of investors does not understand it and panics. And this market is emotions driven.

Market Outlook

On Monday, the markets were closed for the holidays. And the futures opened with a gap up, but that quickly sold off, and we are seeing a candle called a shooting star (on the chart above as well as the one below). Of course, it means nothing at this moment. The market can still open and rally tomorrow.

Market Outlook

But the odds of it happening are low. The trend forecast indicates selling to continue tomorrow. Last week didn’t work much, and the market behaved exactly opposite from what I expected. We had a large selloff in the morning with a sharp reversal in the afternoon. That was difficult to trade, and so we stayed on the sidelines. Tomorrow it may be similar, and we may stay aside and wait for some trend to display the direction of this market.

Market Outlook

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Posted by Martin December 31, 2022
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Market Outlook

Last day of the 2022 year. It was a horrible year. But I must say, I was able to navigate it relatively well. Although I decided to roll the trades and not close them for a loss, I managed to stay positive and grow the accounts. The only problem is that many of these trades are now open with a long time to expire, and it will take time to clear them and collect my premiums. But I am optimistic. I believe 2023 will be better, and the recession will not come (yet, I will protect my portfolios just in case). And when the markets start trending again, I will make more money.

Market Outlook

The market was selling the whole day on the last trading day, but we saw a robust rally in the end, which erased all intraday losses. That is yet another day when the market rejected bears and held the support at 50% Fib. The price managed to stay above the red cloud line. It is held inside the green cloud, but the issue here is that the blue line is still deep below the red line and not much reversing, and the cloud is about to change into a red one again. We need bulls to step in and push the price up.

Market Outlook

We are still seeing the blue line sharply below the red. And there is no sign of the blue line trend reversing. That is not a good sign. It can indicate further decline to come. We need bulls to step in, push the price higher, and reverse the blue line back up.
The good thing is that we are above the red cloud support line. If that holds, the market can be saved. The cloud is also slowly changing from green to red, and so far, in this choppy market, it has indicated a potential bottom. So let’s see how this develops.

Market Outlook

So far, the Ichimoku chart resembles the price action from September 2022 (see the blue boxes: blue crossing below red, cloud changing from red to green, etc.) and what followed after that was not good.

Market Outlook

The chart above shows how the market continued declining the whole day, but in the last hour, it rallied and erased all losses (well, almost all of them). Yet, it defied my forecast, so the last two days didn’t work. The market did the exact opposite. What is going to happen next? It is difficult to say right now as the market is like a bouncing boat on a stormy sea. We have no direction and too many emotions out there. We need the sentiment to calm down first. In a market like this, the best approach is to sit tight and wait for some clue about where this thing wants to go.

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Posted by Martin December 30, 2022
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Market Outlook

Yesterday, everyone was panicking about the inevitable recession, today, after we received jobless claims showing more people asking for unemployment support, everyone was no longer afraid of a recession, and the markets erased yesterday’s losses. This is a type of market that is hard to predict and expect. And subsequently hard to trade.

Market Outlook

At least, we can be relieved for a moment seeing the market reclaiming the support that was lost yesterday. We are back above the 50% Fib. But will it hold?
The chart below shows the cloud that provides more room for decline (the market can decline to the red cloud line and still be positive, though it would have a negative effect on future price action).

Market Outlook

The problem is that we are in the cloud, and there is no decisive action to move above it, but the most concerning action is that the blue line crossed (sharply) below the red line and that is never a good sign, even in this choppy market. This happened only once in recent history (in December 2021), and the blue line was hugging the red line, then briefly moved above it and, after two months, crossed back down, and the bear market developed. Today, we see the blue line sharply down.

Market Outlook

Although the trend forecasting indicates a choppy day with some positive upward-moving trend, I do not think this will happen. Yes, we may see the last day of the 2022 rally, but the price is set to collapse. Will it be tomorrow? Or early next year? Even the WVAP line on the chart above is sharply down, which is a line that doesn’t reverse easily either. All this points to more selling to come.

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Posted by Martin December 29, 2022
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Market Outlook

We had another selloff based on no news, just recession fears. Since most people working on Wall Street are on vacation, this selling is mostly retail. That could be good as it may spark a rally in January.

Market Outlook

However, the problem we are seeing is that the market is breaking below its support. The chart above shows the price still holding at 50% Fib retracement, but the chart below indicates that this support is crumbling as the price closed below the red cloud line.

Market Outlook

The expectations for today didn’t play out, and expectations for tomorrow are negative. There is a possibility that the market will try to return to the point of control at 3,840, but then it may go lower from there. And it may not happen at all, and we may continue selling.

Market Outlook

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Posted by Martin December 28, 2022
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Market Outlook

The market acted as expected at first and went down, but then rec covered some losses and traded sideways on a low volume. It managed to hold the support levels:

Market Outlook
Market Outlook

My expectations for tomorrow (Wednesday) are positive and I expect the market to go higher. The trend forecast shows a strong rally but it may be muted due to holidays.

Market Outlook

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