The markets were volatile after the FOMC meeting minutes. And that volatility will probably continue as investors are scared. They propelled worthless tech stocks up during the 2020 and 2021 frenzy and now they are scared to hold these stocks and dumping them en masse. And along with those, they dump good quality stocks like Google or Amazon. They say Google’s growth slowed down (to 10% growth compared to 41% growth last year), but that is normal cyclical behavior. Next year it can accelerate again ( and when this bearishness ends, I expect it to happen). But these people are foolish and sell, just because this or next quarter, the stock will be slower than usual. At least, they are providing me with a good opportunity to buy. In the meantime, we have to survive the market being dragged down.

 

 

The market ended slightly below $4,000 today (it went up a bit after hours and finished above $4,000 as you can see in the above chart). There is no improvement. The sentiment is overly bearish and there is still a good chance that we will go lower and retest the 200-day MA.

 

 

The Ichimoku charts are both bearish too. The daily chart shows what I expected to happen – closing the white space between the price and the cloud. The price is now approaching the cloud and should find support on it. If so, this will be a healthy pullback. If not, expect a bad outcome. The weekly chart is still full-blown bearish, struggling to move above the cloud.

 

 

The forecast indicated a bullish outcome but it doesn’t take into account the FOMC and fickle investors. Inflation and economic data recently published indicated that they will have a negative impact on the FED’s pivot and markets and that is exactly what we saw today. Despite the FED’s “higher and longer” rhetoric, the markets held relatively well (we could drop way deeper than just a measly -0.14%). But this can change quickly. The markets trade efficiently and when looking at the chart below, the volume profile is creating a vacuum above the POC. At some point, the market would want that space filled. But given the weakness and bearish sentiment, I do not think this will be the case. We probably end lower tomorrow.

 

 

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