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Archive for March, 2011

Posted by Martin March 22, 2011

AGNC’s SPO (And High Yield) Provide Opportunity

After going ex-dividend Monday, shares of American Capital Agency Corp (AGNC) were falling further after hours on news the company will be offering 27,000,000 shares of stock. Underwriters will have the possibility to sell an additional 4,050,000 shares to cover any overallotments. Investors who have held AGNC for a few quarters should have seen this coming since it is the 4th large equity offering since September. However, looking at the market response to previous offerings, investors might want to participate in this secondary.

While shareholders should never like being diluted, it makes sense for AGNC to keep issuing shares to expand its holdings of securities given that shares trade at a premium to book value, which was last reported being $24.24 on February 8th. The fact that shares continue to march higher, even with the dilution, is a testament to the strength of the company’s management American Capital (ACAS), and the 19% yield. If you purchased shares on the September offering at $26, you will have received one $1.40 dividend already, and will be due the next $1.40 dividend April 27th. That amounts to $2.80 in dividends, as well as about $2.50 in stock appreciation, depending on where the new offering prices, for a total return of $5.30, or 21.5% .

I do not expect the stock to run much above the $33-$35 range given the book value on the shares. However, the company has consistently paid the current $1.40 dividend for 7 quarters and has paid out $14.66 since its formation. The incredibly high yield makes AGNC a winner, and these equity offerings have proved to be opportunities to get shares at a discount. The weakness on the open Tuesday will be an opportunity to get a great yielding stock on a dip, and gain access to this massive dividend yield.

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Posted by Martin March 17, 2011

Ten stocks to look at in the panic

Even high-quality blue-chip stocks have been thrown overboard in the panic of the past six days.

Shares in some of the world’s strongest and most profitable names have been knocked down 5%, 10% or in a few cases even more in the global selloff.

Nobody knows what’s going to happen next in Japan. And nobody can say for certain what it will mean for the global economy.

Listen to Ben Inker. He’s the head of asset allocation at fund shop GMO. “However horrific the human cost,” he wrote this week, “economically, most disasters are hard to spot in the data. GDP does not necessarily fall, and if it does, the bounce-back is usually quite rapid.”

And, as he added, the events of the next few months, even years, don’t actually matter that much to the true value of the stock market anyhow.

There are no guarantees. But if you’ve been struggling to find decent places to invest, and you’ve been waiting for better prices, the following stocks are worth a look:

  • Wal-Mart Stores Inc. : Yes, it has its troubles. Like falling same-store sales here in the U.S., and too many customers living on food stamps. But it’s still an incredible retailer. This stock is back to levels seen three years ago. As recently as January it was at $58. Today it’s just $51.That’s a paltry 12 times forecast earnings, and the dividend yield is 2.8%.
  • Coca-Cola Co. : Last week it was nearly $66. Today it’s tumbled all the way down to $61. And for the world’s biggest brand name that’s cheap, on 12 times forecast earnings, with a 3% yield.
  • Procter & Gamble Co. : The classic widow and orphan stock. The Crest, Tide and Gillette behemoth, $67 recently, has been marked down to $60. Reasonable on fifteen times forecast earnings, with a healthy 3.2% yield.
  • Johnson & Johnson : The health-care giant has had a rough few months, and has been hit by product recalls. The stock has tumbled to $58, from a peak of $66 in the fall. On 12 times forecasts, with a yield of 3.7%, it has priced in a fair amount of gloom already.
  • Microsoft Corp. : I hate most of their software, and recently wasted hours grappling with a Windows Mobile product, but I can’t deny the stock is cheap. It’s down to just $25, from nearly $30 recently. Just 10 times forecast earnings, yielding 2.6%.
  • Merck and Co. Inc. : It’s at $31, from nearly $34 recently. As with most of the big pharmaceutical companies, investors face the usual trade-off between slow growth and awesome cashflow. But at 8 times forecasts, and with a fat dividend yield of 4.9%, this stock has already priced a lot of that in.
  • Vodafone Group PLC : This British firm is the world’s largest mobile-network operator, and owns a 45% stake in Verizon Wireless here in the U.S. The stock is down to $27, from nearly $30 recently. A bargain at 10 times forecast earnings, with a yield of 4.8%.
  • Diageo PLC : The world’s biggest drinks company — brands include Guinness beer, Smirnoff vodka, Captain Morgan rum and a whole range of Scotch whiskys. It’s now $72, down from nearly $81 recently. Reasonable on 14 times forecast earnings, yielding 3.5%.
  • Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. : Here’s one Japanese stock even a grandmother might want to think about. Japan’s Ma Bell has U.S.-listed depositary receipts. They’re $22, from $25 recently. Now on 10 times forecasts, yielding a remarkable — for Japan — 2.8%.
  • GlaxoSmithKline PLC : Another cashflow-rich, slow-growth pharmaceutical giant. London-based Glaxo is now $37, down from $39 recently. But it’s cheap, on just 8 times forecast earnings, yielding a huge 5.6%.

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Posted by Martin March 16, 2011

Time to buy? Everybody is panicking, but Buffet is buying!

It is not easy seeing your investments sinking and it is not comfortable seeing the market in correction. At least it is not comfortable for me. I can see; however, that all this mess in the market is just pure overreaction and unreasonable panicking. First the market was plummeting because of fear of crisis in Libya, then because of high price of oil, then because of low price of oil, and now because of disaster in Japan. From a short perspective that tragedy in Japan may look like a catastrophe (from the market point of view, not the human tragedy, which is great), but look at it the other way: Japan is a very strong economy and Japanese are very agile people. They will not give up on this tragedy. They will start rebuilding what was destroyed. So why panicking?

Actually I consider this sell off as a blessing and a great opportunity to add to my positions or buy new positions for better price. For example adding Johnson & Johnson stock to my portfolio in trading account is a great opportunity. I have bought this stock to my Roth IRA at around $58 a share. Now the price is at this level and I can buy this stock for great price in my trading account. And there are many other excellent stocks which are driven down by today’s panic.

A great sensor of what’s actually happening may be seeing what the Omaha Oracle is doing these days. He announced that he has 40 billion of dollars ready for acquisitions and sure recently he purchased Lubrizol. So when everybody is panicking and selling their stocks off, Warren Buffet is buying. If he wouldn’t trust in the economy, he wouldn’t do it.

However, I want to follow W. O’Neil’s advice not to be buying when the market is in correction. So I am waiting and saving money for new purchases. The market may continue falling a few more days or even weeks and buying now may lock my positions in stocks which will fall further down and and lock me in a paper loss. I do not want that so I will wait and start buying when the market changes into confirmed rally. A great example would be HGIC position I have opened recently. Since then the stock tanked by c. 12%. I know that the reason was their poor economical results, but the market was already in correction so I should have been waiting. It could save me some money and I could buy cheaper these days. Since the stock is not cutting dividends it appears to me that they will do well in the future and waiting could be a great opportunity to buy this stock cheap.

Let’s see what will happen next few days and be ready for adding to your portfolio. It is time to be buying.

Posted by MartZee March 02, 2011

Keep income flowing no matter what

The primary goal isn’t to make as much money as possible or “beat the market.” Instead, it’s to create a portfolio of investments that will allow you to meet specific obligations — no matter what happens in the markets. This may seem like a distinction without a difference. But it requires a fundamentally different mindset and approach than investing to maximize returns.

It even has a name: liability-driven investing.

“You’re not investing to maximize returns…you’re maximizing the chance of being able to meet future income needs,” says Christopher Jones, chief investment officer at Financial Engines, which provides asset-allocation services to 401(k) plans.

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