Wow, what a week. The FED was playing with fire and broke the toy. Something economists like Warton professor Jeremy Siegel have been warning about since half of 2022, saying that the FED is wrong and tightening too much looking at the wrong data, which will backfire. Fast forward, and the banking system, the Continue reading →

Last week we saw the first cracks in the economy. Two US banks are in trouble. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Banks experienced a bank run. Silver Gate may shut down completely, and SVB is not yet determined. We had a bunch of “experts” coming out telling us what happened. Many are in a panic mode Continue reading →

  The market started Monday’s session in a strong mode and rallied. Unfortunately, before the end of the day, it lost all gains and finished flat.     The entire three-day rally was not sparked by any news or any changes to underlying fundamentals. If the underlying fundamentals were bad as bears are telling us, Continue reading →

  The futures were dropping, the markets opened lower and continued sliding down on fear (and stupidity), but then at around noon, one unimportant FED member proclaimed that he was in favor of a 0.25 rate increase rather than 0.50 and the markets rallied. Completely worthless news and the markets go crazy about it. This Continue reading →

  As expected, the markets ended down today. The manufacturing data came in showing the economy is cooling off and slowing. Investors cannot make their minds up. At first, they were cheering the bad data but then some unimportant FED members started blabbing about higher rates and the market participants pooped their pants. Despite all Continue reading →

  Another zig-zag day and selling based on no news. Only fear of FED. But that is a known issue and worrying about a known issue is usually wrong. Bearishness again increased to January 2023 lows (after which the market rallied 10%), so the odds are we will be seeing a bounce. Of course, nothing Continue reading →

  We received the durable goods report before the bell and it didn’t look good. The market popped initially on the bad (good) news but during the day we lost steam and gave away most of the gains.     The market is still sitting on the major supports but the odds are to the Continue reading →

  Today, we were supposed to crash and not recover. We crashed. And we recovered. That shows how resilient this market is. At first, the early gains turned red and all hope for a good green day was lost. But then, the supply of sellers dried up, buyers stepped in and we reversed the course Continue reading →