The banking crisis seems to be calming down. FED may potentially pause the interest hikes so as not to cause further damage because for years the FED was telling everybody that the interest rates will stay low for a long time… so buying long-term Treasuries didn’t look like a risky idea. Everybody did it, not just banks. Imagine pension funds, they may be next. And then after 10 years of ultra-low to negative interest yields the FED rockets the rate to 5% within a few months. Of course, no one can sustain such a rapid hike if you suddenly need cash and the 10-year Treasuries which looked like a safe haven are suddenly worthless!
And the market may be now looking forward to some stability. After some bearish start, the index finished green.

 

 

Daily Ichimoku charts starting to improve and show some recovery. But still, long time to go to fully recover from the damage. And if the FED screws it up again tomorrow, we may not recover at all and instead head lower.

 

 

The weekly Ichimoku chart holds well so far and it is even attempting to break into the cloud. The cloud is strong resistance and we still may bounce down from it. It would be a good signal for the markets if we break into it and above.

 

 

The forecasting chart shows a potential down day tomorrow and if the FED doesn’t cooperate it may very well happen. If however, the FED shows a bit dovish stance, the market may continue higher. Note that forecasting is a purely mathematical model based on past data. It may capture the momentum of the trend but may not work well if influenced by sudden news or black swans that disrupt it. There fore the chart below needs to be confirmed. Unfortunately, we do not have that confirmation on any other chart, though there is an improvement that may help push the markets up and invalidate the recent forecasting series.

 

 

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