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2022 SPX put credit spreads trading review – week 25

Last week’s SPX trading strategy was again mostly about adjusting our old trades than trading new ones. The goal is to let the old trades expire one by one before we resume opening new trades. It will be a difficult task as many of our previous trades got deep in the money and need time and repairs. Some traders close the trades for a loss. They use stop-loss closing the trade at 2 times or 3 times of received credit but in a choppy market like the one we have right now, you may get easily chopped out, unless you stop trading whatsoever.

My approach is taking into account that over time markets go up, so I give bad trades time to recover and try to roll them as far away as possible. But that cost money. So I open a trade I call a box which offsets the cost although the box will need the same attention later. But with just one “box trade” I can adjust two or even three bad trades to get them to a position that they expire out-of-the-money. And when the market finally finds its solid direction and I resume normal trading, that will help generate enough credit to offset all bad trades. And of course, all that is done while we still keep our account growing.

Last week we were rolling and adjusting the trades which delivered $1,725.00 income. That brought our account up by +9.12% while SPX gained +6.45%.

Overall, the SPX account is up +473.11% since the beginning of this program, and we have $24,175 in unrealized gains. But there is no time to party over this result. We have plenty of “box” trades, which are difficult to manage. The box must be managed at some point as it is not a winning trade. It helps to buy time, but later, one or the other side must be adjusted. No matter where the market goes, the box will be a losing trade.

 

Initial trade set ups

 

For my SPX strategy, I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS strategy per week. If this amount is depleted, I will evaluate the strategy to determine whether to continue or change it. If I grow this amount, I will scale up the trading.
 

WHAT WILL WE TRADE?    
DAY DTE TYPE
MONDAY 7 DTE & 40 delta 10 wide Put Credit Spread
TUESDAY 30 DTE & 40 delta 10 wide Put Credit Spread
WEDNESDAY 7 DTE & 40 delta 10 wide Put Credit Spread
FRIDAY 60 DTE & 14 delta 10 wide Put Credit Spread
EVERY MONTH 120 DTE Put Debit Spread – HEDGE

 

Our SPX strategy is designed as a directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators (primarily based on moving averages) and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend following strategy.” If we have a bullish signal and bullish trend, we open the trade. If we do not have a signal, we stay away.

We set the set of rules and alerts and backtested them. The backtesting software proved that the strategy was viable and returned good gains. We also tried to automate the decision-making as much as possible to have the trading as mechanical as possible. This helps eliminate our emotions. The decision-making was reduced to: “bullish signal present” – open a trade, “not present” – stay away. it worked well.

Then 2022 came and put this strategy to a stiff test. The signals worked well, but we had old trades that got busted and didn’t have time to perform. So I had to evaluate the strategy. The original strategy was to let the trade expire in the money and take a loss. But I didn’t like it. I tested an option of rolling the trade rather than letting it be, and I feel much more comfortable with that.

Rolling a trade is still a losing trade because we close the old trade for a loss and open a new trade for a credit that partially offsets the loss. We also add a credit call spread or widen the put spread to get more credit. I believe that managing these trades and offsetting them with an opposite, adjusted, or new trade will result in fewer losses and more considerable gains. And so far, this strategy works.

Here you can see all our trades:

 
SPX PCS account value
Click on the picture above to see the entire list.
 

We do not trade 0 DTE trades. This strategy is designed to be as passive as possible. You open a trade and let it run. You do not need to be glued to the computer all the time. The strategy takes advantage of the market’s historical behavior of mainly going up. Yes, there will be selloffs and corrections, even bear markets, but over time, it goes up. And therefore, our strategy is designed for this direction. The premise is that if we have a bullish trend, we open a bullish spread and let it run. 80% or 90% of the time, it will be a winning trade. And if the trend is strong, we open more aggressive trades (which is not the case today due to the market’s correction).

How much money can you trade?

As you can see in the table below, the highest amount of cash to trade this strategy is $19,995.00. That will allow adjustments, rolls, and comfortable trading without blowing your account. Can you trade less? Well, yes, I started with a $3,600 initial amount. But you need to be selective. You won’t trade all trades. You just trade the safest trades only (which is the Friday trade), especially in this market, and when the market gets out of this mess, you can start adding trades. And you do not compound. You must wait for the actual trade to end before opening a new trade. This way, the growth will be a lot slower, and you collect less credit, but you do not blow your account, mainly when you need to roll. You do not have money to do that (as the old busted trade will need more buying power which can be reduced by adding an offsetting trade that neutralizes the old trade, but you still will need that initial buying power).

 

Last week trading

 

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +473.11% gain last week.
 

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021): $3,600.00
Last week beginning value: $18,906.95
Last week ending value: $20,631.95 (+9.12%; total: +473.11%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy: $19,995
Current capital at risk: $8,899.76
Unrealized Gain: $24,175 (+415.02%)
Realized Gain: -$3,638 (-62.45%)
Total Gain: $20,537 (+352.57%)
Win Ratio: 61%
Average Winner: $269
Average Loser: $491

 

SPX PCS account value
SPX PCS account value
 
Our SPX net-liq increased last week. The market is volatile and selling too much, and because of that, I am reducing our trading activity to just adjusting our existing trades.
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq
 
Our account is growing while the entire market was struggling, even though last week SPX grew faster than our account. I am looking forward to this selling to end and the market resuming its bullish uptrend. We will be able to get into the more aggressive trades and boost our income significantly.

 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index
 

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

 

SUBSCRIBE HERE

 

Note, if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can do so by subscribing to one level only and then send us an email that you want to be added to other levels too.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or write a comment in the comments section. Thank you!

 
 





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