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Posted by Martin May 15, 2024
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Why I Switched to Trading Futures and Futures Options


I run a program for subscribers to present my trades and post trade alerts. Anytime I open a trade, close it, or adjust it, I send out an alert so subscribers can copy trade my trades. Any subscriber can also ask any questions and if they need help I can help them with trades, explain the mechanics of a trade or help them out if any trade goes against them. I traded SPX for years but lately started shifting to trading Futures and Futures Options. Here is why.

 

When Trading Futures and Futures options, PDT doesn’t apply

 

I do not day trade but time to time when the markets got volatile, I was forced to adjust an SPX trade a few times in the same day. I trade multiple accounts, some are large enough where day trading wasn’t an issue, but others were small (below $25,000) and that caused those accounts being flagged as “Pattern Day Trader” (PDT). In those accounts, I couldn’t trade freely and I had to be very careful with the trades. Many adjustments couldn’t be done at all, I had to let the trade expire in the money and incur losses.

 

Trading Futures and Futures options requires less Buying Power

 

This is the biggest advantage I am seeing so far – futures are cheaper to trade. Not on the fees basis, they are more expensive compared to SPX, but on the margin requirements basis. I can open an option trade and limit the margin requirements to $1,000 while collecting significantly higher credit. I can even sell a single naked put contract which would require $8,000 – $12,000 buying power and collect $3,000 – $5,000 credit. Do the same with SPX and you will need $94,000 Buying Power. Compare the requirements for SPX vs. Futures options below:

 
Trading Futures vs SPX

 
And here is a same trade (same delta and expiration) for futures put contract:

 
Trading Futures vs SPX

 
As you can see, I can collect about the same credit for the same expiration day, same delta, but with significantly lower BP reduction. This is a big deal. Not because I can recklessly trade more contracts, but because I will have more cash and buying power left to weather volatility and day-to-day market fluctuations. The worst thing in trading options is not to have enough cash when there is a storm or panic out there and you are forced to close a trade for a loss due to a margin call. It happened to me many times that the markets changed, margin maintenance requirements increased and I had to close a trade safely far away from the market so survive the storm for a loss just to release the buying power.

 

Trading Futures options are safer

 

If you compare the pictures above, you may notice one more benefit of options against Futures vs. SPX that makes futures safer. The same delta is farther away from the money compared to SPX. The dashed line on both trade tickets represent 1SD (1st Standard Deviation). The SPX is at the 1SD, the futures put option is three strikes lower than that. If we assume that the markets can fluctuate and fall down to 1SD, futures contract can still survive the wave of panic selling. The SPX will be already in the money. Of course, this is not something to bet on every single trade, but it provides better safety down the road.

 

Trading Futures contracts also require less capital

 

If you do not want to trade Futures options, you can trade contracts directly. While we can buy a futures contract, we cannot buy SPX. If you want to buy SPX you have to use an ETF that tracks SPX such as SPY. In my opinion, SPX and SPY are less efficient as far as capital requirements. If you decide to day trade futures, you would need $6,000 buying power (not an exact number, but in the vicinity of it). If you hold a Futures contract overnight, the BP will increase to $12,890 (again in the vicinity of it). You will never be able to achieve this with SPY. Try to invest the same amount of SPY shares to gain the same rewards as with Futures and you will need significantly larger capital to open such trade.

 

Trading Futures contracts are more profitable

 

Given what I said above about Futures being more efficient, they provide far better return on invested capital. I opened a Futures contract in April 30th. I bought 1 /ESM4 Futures contract at 5,080 per contract (with $12,890 +/- buying power reduction). Today (May 15th, 2024), that contract is worth $12,800.00 of unrealized profit:

 
Trading Futures contracts

 
I wouldn’t be able to achieve this holding SPY with only $12,000 buying power. I would need a lot more capital to do it.

Here is the same trade on a chart (with a trailing stop to protect gains should the market reverse and sell off):

 
Trading Futures contracts

 

What’s not so good with trading Futures options?

 

The only thing in my evolution of Futures trading and trading options against Futures contracts is difficulty to adjust complex options strategies. For example, rolling a simply vertical put spread (or call spread) is impossible to do as a single trade. At least Tasty Trade says, they do not support such trade (and I am not sure if this is the same with other brokers or just Tasty). Adjusting a trade, like rolling to further date, needs to be done by legging in and out. That can be sometimes very frustrating.

Another bad thing (ugly) is the fees. Fees when trading options against Futures, are very high, so trading short expiration (like 0 DTE) trades and use delta 10, for example, is impossible to do. The trade will not be profitable. The trade will open for a debit (as a seller, I want a credit).
 

Other than that, I like the performance of using options against Futures or buying/selling Futures contracts directly, so far.

 

Do you want to trade Futures with us?

 

If you want to receive our trade alerts to your email inbox, subscribe to our SPX Alerts (although they are no longer SPX alerts), or if you want me to help you trading your account, shoot me an email. I will be happy to assist you.
 
 




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Posted by Martin May 13, 2024
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Added an Economic Calendar to Avoid the FED


This and next week we will be overwhelmed by a ton of economic news such as inflation data, CPI, manufacturing data, employment news, and so on. On top of that we will have J. Powell and other FED officials telling us what we already know and typically, the market will act erratic and investors will be crazy again.

Two weeks ago (or three?) I ignored this frenzy and opened new trades on Monday just to sweat my crack watching those trades killing my margin requirements when the market went up (great, I was making money), just to follow by a sharp turn down within the same hour (and I started shitting bricks glued to the monitor).

Fortunately, the trades were safe and expired worthless for the full profit. But it was close. I promised myself not to make the same mistake again and wait for this craziness to settle before opening the trades.

The problem is that these waves of economic news that can shake the markets are coming often. It feels like they are published every week (or day). There will always be something to worry about and people will always freak about everything and anything.

But I want to wait after the news to open new trades. The news we will get tomorrow and on Wednesday should set the trend for the next few days and the next week. So, after the news we should have a good idea where the markets may be headed.

It is difficult to predict where the inflation will be, everyone I follow expects the inflation to settle (Tom Lee or Wolters Kluwer), and if so, expect the markets to skyrocket. But in the meantime, it can be shaky.

And for this I added a calendar to my blog to quickly assess when these events may happen to avoid trading during those moments, especially when we had a futures options trade expired today and I plan on renewing the trade. Three weeks ago I would reopen the trade today and then pray for the market gods to keep me safe. Today, I would rather wait for the storm to pass.
 




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Posted by Martin May 12, 2024
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Contest #24: Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close And Win Cash!


Last week, we didn’t have enough votes to have a valid contest. We need at least five people to vote according to rules below to make the contest a valid one. Please vote in the comments below and win cash!

 

Contest voting is from Sunday May 12th – Wednesday May 15th and it is now CLOSED

 

Welcome to the Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close Challenge!

 

We’re thrilled to bring you an exciting contest where your forecasting skills could win you a fantastic prize – a $100 Amazon or Cash gift card! Get ready to flex your market intuition and join the fun.
 
 

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Posted by Martin May 07, 2024
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Will market sentiment lead to the new highs?


Read more here…
 
Do you want to learn more about our market sentiment score system? We try to evaluate market trend, sentiment, and volatility to determine whether to stay in cash, ride the trend or be aggressively buying. Prevent your portfolio experiencing large drawdowns and subscribe to our newsletter to find out what is the safest way to trade next week and every week.
 




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Posted by Martin May 05, 2024
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Contest #23: Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close And Win Cash!


Last week, we didn’t have enough votes to have a valid contest. We need at least five people to vote according to rules below to make the contest a valid one. Please vote in the comments below and win cash!

 

Contest voting is from Sunday May 5th – Wednesday May 8th and it is now CLOSED

 
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Posted by Martin April 29, 2024
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Market sentiment improving or calm before the storm?


 
Do you want to learn more about our market sentiment score system? We try to evaluate market trend, sentiment, and volatility to determine whether to stay in cash, ride the trend or be aggressively buying. Prevent your portfolio experiencing large drawdowns and subscribe to our newsletter to find out what is the safest way to trade next week and every week.
 




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Posted by Martin April 28, 2024
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Contest #22: Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close And Win Cash!


Last week, we didn’t have enough votes to have a valid contest. We need at least five people to vote according to rules below to make the contest a valid one. Please vote in the comments below and win cash!

 

Contest voting is from Sunday April 28th – Wednesday May 1st and it is now CLOSED

 
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Posted by Martin April 23, 2024
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Market sentiment correction underway


 
Do you want to learn more about our market sentiment score system? We try to evaluate market trend, sentiment, and volatility to determine whether to stay in cash, ride the trend or be aggressively buying. Prevent your portfolio experiencing large drawdowns and subscribe to our newsletter to find out what is the safest way to trade next week and every week.
 




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Posted by Martin April 21, 2024
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Contest #21: Guess the S&P 500 Friday Close And Win Cash!


Last week, we didn’t have enough votes to have a valid contest. We need at least five people to vote according to rules below to make the contest a valid one. Please vote in the comments below and win cash!

 

Contest voting is from Sunday April 21st – Wednesday April 24th and it is now CLOSED

 
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Posted by Martin April 15, 2024
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Market sentiment worsening on inflation, rate cuts and Iran


 
Do you want to learn more about our market sentiment score system? We try to evaluate market trend, sentiment, and volatility to determine whether to stay in cash, ride the trend or be aggressively buying. Prevent your portfolio experiencing large drawdowns and subscribe to our newsletter to find out what is the safest way to trade next week and every week.
 




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