Yesterday, I wrote a post with a link expressing that retailers were worried about Americans not spending enough this holiday season. Their reasoning was:
- Dwindling savings
- Increased credit card debt
- Stubborn Inflation and high prices everywhere
- Student loans repayment kick off
They also expressed concerns about shoppers delaying their purchases and ordering less “stuff,” as they saw in October. They predicted that the US holiday sales would rise 3% to 4% compared to 5.4% a year ago and issued “muted annual sales outlook.”
Well, as Mr. Scrooge says: “Bah… Humbug!”
Americans were spending like crazy again. And according to MarketWatch (subscription needed), the hottest items were “Disney Little People figurines (seriously?), and Mattel’s Uno Show ‘Em No Mercy card game (no wonder, people are poor and live paycheck to paycheck when wasting money on this, but hey, spend, so we, the investors, make money).
Shoppers spent a record $5.6 billion this season shopping online, up 5.5% compared to last year. See, retailers were worried that shoppers would spend only 3% to 4% from November to December 2023, but they spent 5.5% on Black Friday stuff only!
What does this tell us? That all these predictors and forecasters are usually wrong. Take their pessimistic views with a salt of the grain (big one), and invest in established good-standing companies. And when the markets sell because predictors and forecasters are freaking out, take it as an opportunity instead of running away with the herd. And if you are trading, trade the chart in front of you, not the forecasts, feelings, predictions, or guts.
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