So the FED did exactly what everyone expected, yet the market sold off hard (over 1.5%) at the end of the session. The whole day was flat until Powell spoke and revealed to be less hawkish. But then he mentioned that the fight to mute inflation is not over (wishful thinking as banks will Continue reading →
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Technical view: Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)
ARCC is in stage #4. The stock appears to be consolidating and it could eventually bounce but the trend is weak, and we still have a strong sell signal. The weekly chart is trendless with no signal, but it indicates that there may be no more selling, at least for now. The Continue reading →
03.20.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
The banking crisis seems to be calming down. FED may potentially pause the interest hikes so as not to cause further damage because for years the FED was telling everybody that the interest rates will stay low for a long time… so buying long-term Treasuries didn’t look like a risky idea. Everybody did it, Continue reading →
Technical view: Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN)
TRIN is in stage #2, but the recent SVB trouble may be spilling into this stock as well. That may send this stock into a further downward spiral and change the stage back to #4. TRIN invests in startups too and may be in financial stress the same way as SVB is. If the Continue reading →
03.15.2023 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
What was good yesterday turned sour today. The browny (shit) show continues. This time send your thanks to Credit Suisse… The VIX futures term is turning negative, which means more and more investors are hedging for more selloffs. The markets sold off hard today. It was down over 1.5% the entire day, and it Continue reading →
03.14.2023 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
All is good… Inflation went down well, sort of. It went up but at the slowest pace since January 2021… The government bailed out the crumbling banks… People got pissed off that the irresponsible managers got away with it again… The FED may actually start cutting the rates now… And the pastures are green Continue reading →
03.13.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
Wow, what a week. The FED was playing with fire and broke the toy. Something economists like Warton professor Jeremy Siegel have been warning about since half of 2022, saying that the FED is wrong and tightening too much looking at the wrong data, which will backfire. Fast forward, and the banking system, the Continue reading →
The FED may have a problem… and all of us too
Last week we saw the first cracks in the economy. Two US banks are in trouble. Silvergate and Silicon Valley Banks experienced a bank run. Silver Gate may shut down completely, and SVB is not yet determined. We had a bunch of “experts” coming out telling us what happened. Many are in a panic mode Continue reading →
03.06.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
The market started Monday’s session in a strong mode and rallied. Unfortunately, before the end of the day, it lost all gains and finished flat. The entire three-day rally was not sparked by any news or any changes to underlying fundamentals. If the underlying fundamentals were bad as bears are telling us, Continue reading →
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