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Posted by Martin December 15, 2022
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12.14.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Today, the FED announced increasing rates by 0.50% and the markets went initially up but then sold off hard on Powell’s remarks about potentially higher hikes next year. Investors were worried that this speed and tightness may destroy the labor market and sink the economy into recession. Though the VIX futures term is still positive, it may change soon. The market seems like it wanted to go higher and finally break above the 200-day MA and be done with the bear market but after Powell’s remarks, it no longer seems to be the case. It is rolling over again. The good news is, it is not a sharp reversal so far. We are still in a bear market and the rest of the week will probably be to the downside.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 14, 2022
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12.13.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The market reacted with a huge jump at the opening after the CPI report indicated easing inflation. It jumped up 2.23%. But then it started a selloff, and the market declined the rest of the day. It erased all gains finishing up 0.73% only. Quite disappointing price action. But obvious one. We have had this pattern for almost a year now. The market reacted well to the good inflation news but failed to hold on to the gains. Today was no different. Tomorrow, Jay will tell us what we all already know, so let’s see how the market reacts to it. I kinda expect selling off as I think the rumors were priced in, and now we will see selling the news. Expect choppy trading tomorrow.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 14, 2022
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Technical view: AES Corp. (AES)


Technical view
 

AES is in stage #2. The stock continues trading near its all-time highs and starts forming a top. If the economy hits a recession, then bonds may perform better, and investors will most likely buy bonds rather than utilities. Thus, I am expecting (if that happens) that AES may drop. At the current price, the stock is overpriced and not investable. If it, however, drops, I will be a buyer.

 
Technical view
 

Technical view
 

Fundamentally, the stock is overvalued and not worth buying more shares (it is not in my buy zone yet). If it goes lower again at some point in the future, it can be a good entry point, but not today.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now HOLD
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, December 9th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin December 13, 2022
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12.12.22 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Everything indicated the market going lower today – a continuation of Friday’s losses, but it didn’t happen. The market recovered all losses and some. In fact, according to all technical signals, the entire week should ve down except on Thursday and Friday, when we should see a recovery. It is not happening, but it still may happen. The market may be disturbed by a CPI report and FOMC meeting this week. A typical pattern was selling into the meeting and a rally afterward. It seems we see the opposite, buying the meeting and potentially selling the news. Tomorrow should be a down day, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see an up day. So, expect choppy sideways trading until Wednesday afternoon.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 11, 2022
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2022 Week 49 investing and trading report


Our trading and investing last week went smoothly. We opened a few credit spreads, and all expired out of the money. We didn’t buy shares last week as I am trying to keep cash handy in case we see a recession. That will be my goal for the next year to raise cash so I do not have margin call issues. Last week was OK, although our net-Liq dropped again. Three or four weeks ago, it went up almost 10%, and last week it dropped almost 8%… volatility is a bitch. And it will not get any better soon. We need all the idiots out there to calm down and take it rationally. But that is too much to ask.
Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is a shit show again:

Cash - Net-Liq - BP 49
Our trading delivered $1,704.00 premiums last week, ending December 2022, at $1,318.00 (2.10%) options income. Our net-liq value decreased by -7.68% to $62,805.97 value. That is still a terrible result but improving. Our overall account is now down -39.98% YTD.

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $62,805.97 -$4,820.76 -7.68%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$1,704.00
01 January 2022 Options: +$8,885.00 +8.36%
02 February 2022 Options: +$10,009.00 +10.34%
03 March 2022 Options: -$1,662.00 -1.47%
04 April 2022 Options: +$1,047.00 +1.19%
05 May 2022 Options: +$8,604.00 +11.32%
06 June 2022 Options: +$9,691.00 +13.73%
07 July 2022 Options: +$8,717.00 +11.39%
08 August 2022 Options: +$7,987.00 +12.15%
09 September 2022 Options: +$2,997.00 +5.76%
10 October 2022 Options: +$3,979.00 +6.36%
11 November 2022 Options: +$3,555.00 +5.26%
12 December 2022 Options: $1,704.00 +2.10%
Options Premiums YTD: +$65,127.00 +103.70%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: $42.16
01 January 2022 Dividends: $303.38
02 February 2022 Dividends: $732.81
03 March 2022 Dividends: $393.74
04 April 2022 Dividends: $337.31
05 May 2022 Dividends: $343.99
06 June 2022 Dividends: $445.80
07 July 2022 Dividends: $367.66
08 August 2022 Dividends: $683.58
09 September 2022 Dividends: $555.20
10 October 2022 Dividends: $359.89
11 November 2022 Dividends: $723.16
12 December 2022 Dividends: $157.34
Dividends YTD: $5,403.86
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $190,804.12 -$12,270.74 -6.04%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.61%
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 15.73%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $142,770.71 68.57%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $34,189,248.17 16,420.76%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $5,742,026,631.96 2,757,838.74%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $10,929,143,931,534.80 5,249,160,005.16%
Portfolio Alpha: 100.77%
Sharpe Ratio: 7.19 EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.21
CAGR: 259.29%
AROC: 65.29%
TROC: 10.10%
Our 2022 Goal
2022 Dividend Goal: $4,800.00 112.58% COMPLETED
2022 Portfolio Value Goal: $151,638.03 41.42% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 35.89% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 6.28% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

Last week we have received $42.16 in dividends bringing our December’s dividend income at $157.34.

Last week, we did not purchase any dividend stock.

Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

Account Equity week 49
And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

Annual Dividend Payout week 49

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week, we purchased no growth stocks.

I started saving cash in the ICSH fund again to raise it to a 60% / 40% cash level.

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week options trading delivered a gain of $1,704.00 making our December options income $1,318.00.

 

We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered +$910.00 gain.

Expected Future Dividend Income

We received $42.16 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.61% at $62,805.97 market value.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $142,770.71, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $7,122.83 annual dividend income ($593.57 monthly income). We are 4.99% of our 10 year goal of $142,770.71 dividend income.

Future Divi on YOC week 49
The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value decreased from $203,074.86 to $190,804.12 last week.

In 2022 we plan on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

Stock holdings trading week 49
We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 2.10% monthly ROI in December 2022, totaling a 103.70% ROI YTD. We will exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -39.98%.
Our options trading averaged $5,427.25 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $65,127.00 in trading options in 2022. As of today, we have made $$65,127.00 trading options.

Old SPX trades repair

 

We traded our SPX put credit spread strategy, which you will be able to review in my next report. The SPX strategy has held well so far, and our signals kept us from opening new aggressive trades.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq week 49

This drawdown of our account is extremely discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. I am not selling any stock positions despite the losses. I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.

Account Stocks holding

TW Account holdings week 49
Last week, S&P 500 grew 36.01% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 12.06%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 fell -28.75% and our portfolio -17.71%. We are outperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.

Stock holdings Growth YTD

TW Account holdings Growth YTD
Our stock holdings are starting to outperform the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.
Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.28% of that goal.
Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 35.89% of that goal.
Our 2022 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 41.42% of this goal.

I am afraid our account is no longer on track to accomplish our 2022 year goal. We may accomplish our dividend and options income goals, but our account balance (Net-Liq) will be down significantly. Of course, if the market finally rallies by the end of the year, it may all change, but if not, we will fail.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

TW Options Trading Income week 49

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income week 49

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends week 49
We planned to make $4,800.00 in dividend income in 2022. As of today, we received $5,403.86. This week, we completed our 2022 dividend goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $7,122.83 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $593.57, and our current monthly dividend income is $450.32.
TW Received vs Future Dividends week 49

 

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Posted by Martin December 10, 2022
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2022 SPX put credit spreads trading review – week 49


Last week’s SPX trading was frustrating. I took a few bearish trades as the signals were mixed to the bearish outcome. Toward the end of the week, the signals turned bullish, so I opened a bullish trade. But the market was so volatile that the outcome changed quickly and crashed within a few minutes before the market closed. I converted a put spread into a call spread, and I hope the market will go lower on Monday next week. If not, I will have to roll the trade again. Next week, the market will probably be volatile again, and I do not know what to expect. It will be difficult to position trades for a winning outcome. I also opened a new box to bring in more credit that I will use next week to adjust other trades.
 

Our trades delivered a $910.00 gain. But this gain is still tight up by open trades, and it may turn negative before the trades close. Our account weekly trading was up by 2.39% while SPX lost -3.37%.
 

Our SPX account is up +984.11% since the beginning of this program, and we have $39,027.95 in unrealized gains.

 

Initial SPX trade set ups

 

I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS strategy per week. Today, the account is up at $39,027.95. However, due to the recent bear market, many trades are still open, and the funds are tied to those open trades. The trades need to expire or be closed for a profit to release the funds.
 

Our SPX strategy is designed as directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators (primarily based on moving averages and volume profiles) and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend-following strategy.” We open the trade if we have a bullish signal and a bullish trend. If we do not have a signal, we stay away. We also trade credit call spreads when we have bearish signals. In a choppy market, we stay away from or trade very short expirations (usually 1 or 2 days or up to 7 days), but the trading is muted as we need a trending market. Unfortunately, today, we do not have a trending market (yes, overall, it is a down-trending market, but for short-term trades, it is choppy and not trending).
 

Here you can see all our trades:

 
SPX PCS account value
Click on the picture above to see the entire list.
 

Last week trading

 

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +984.11% gain last week.
 

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021): $3,600.00
Last week beginning value: $38,117.95
Last week ending value: $39,027.95 (+2.39%; total: +984.11%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy: $19,995
Current capital at risk: -$13,160
Unrealized Gain: $39,160 (-297.57%)
Realized Gain: -$3,037 (31.87%)
Total Gain: $36,123 (-274.49%)
Win Ratio: 56%
Average Winner: $313
Average Loser: $466

 

SPX PCS account value
SPX PCS account value
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index
 

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

 

 

Note that if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can only subscribe to one level and send us an email that you want to be added to other levels.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or comment in the comments section. Thank you!

 
 




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Posted by Martin December 09, 2022
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12.08.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

As I expected and all my projections pointed out, the market rallied. Tomorrow, the market is poised for a choppy to-up move unless… and yes, here is the big BUT. We will have a CPI report tomorrow, which will shake the market significantly. Since July, the CPI index has been dropping significantly, so one would expect the trend to continue. If so, expect the market to go up, as bad news is good news, and a slowing CPI means the FED will be slowing down their rate hikes. If, however, the CPI comes up stronger, the market will puke on fears of the FED raising the rates more and longer. Old and boring story. But it still rattles the unstable investors. I expect contraction and, thus, market rallying, but we need to be open to other outcomes too.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 08, 2022
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12.07.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Selling pressure continued today but was already muted compared to yesterday’s trading. The markets mainly went sideways with a slight downward drift. It is now sitting at the significant support at 50-day MA and long-term support line that was forming since May, and I expect it to hold to some extent. The VIX is in contango, indicating that traders are not panicking and buying protection yet. Unless we receive super lousy, shocking news, I expect this market to go higher from here, but that move may not be significant. More likely sideways to higher movement.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 07, 2022
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12.06.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Investors received good economic data, which was why they freaked out that the FED may change their easing of the tightening thinking, and they sold off everything they had. At least, this is what the media told us yesterday and today. But we knew that at the current levels, bears would come back to short the market. It was too obvious and to be expected. That’s why we closed many of our bearish positions today because I expect the selling to ease the rest of the week. The VIX is in hot contango, the economy is slowing, inflation is falling, and the FED’s pivot is inevitable. The question is, when. As of now, I expect more of a sideway to bullish trading.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin December 07, 2022
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Technical view: Snowflake (SNOW)


Technical view
 

SNOW is in stage #4. The company had stellar earnings that helped to stop the downward trend but not enough to reverse it. It is still in a declining trend but attempting to break above the 50-day MA. The weekly chart indicates a possible double-bottom process as well. Given the great business model the company has, I think this is a great opportunity to buy this stock cheap. The weekly chart also shows a potential double bottom. But it may change if we crash below.

 
Technical view
 

On a fundamental basis, the stock is still very overvalued, but it will catch up once the company matures over time.
The chart below shows that the stock struggles to gain new momentum and that the uptrend has been broken. It is still pointing to the upside, but the weak trend may fail completely, and the stock may resume a downtrend before investors become optimistic about tech stocks again.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now MODERATE BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, November 26th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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