ARKK returns last year and at the beginning of this year were so embarrassing that they decided to change their home page to no longer indicate YTD returns.
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ARKK returns last year and at the beginning of this year were so embarrassing that they decided to change their home page to no longer indicate YTD returns.
We all want to hear your opinion on the article above: No Comments |
This selloff in SPX is a blessing as well as a sour moment in the markets. It is a blessing because once this ends and people realize that they were overreacting once again, we will see a nice recovery. It may be slow and long, or a “V” shaped. In both cases, once our SPX strategy signals tell us that it is safe to enter the trading again, we will be taking every trade in our trading schedule and making money fist over the hand.
It is a sour moment because we have to stay out and sit on the sidelines. But it is still a good thing compared to my previous trading.
My SPX trading before was to take a trade every week, every expiration, use all available buying power, and scale up the trading indefinitely. It was wrong!
I traded Iron Condors mostly. I thought it would be the best strategy out there. It was not. No strategy works all the time in any market. And Iron Condors can burn you badly in the strong bull market, as well as in crashes like today. It took me some time to finally admit, I was wrong and schedule my trades. Do the exact opposite of what I was doing.
So, I developed a set of signals to help me to determine the trend and be able to see whether a trend is safe enough to open a trade or stay out. So far, it worked well as besides a few trades I took and had to close for a small loss, I was able to stay out and wait for the mass panic selling to end.
But now, I can see that this strategy will deliver spectacular returns as we will be riding the recovery up. And I am looking forward to it.
But there is a caution to be taken from me and my followers. Even if we start seeing recovery and resume of a bull market, our signal may still be negative telling us to stay away. The signal may be turning positive but it still can be in negative territory. The reason for this may be that any potential recovery may just be a bounce or a relief rally. And if that will be the case, we have to stay out too.
But once these hurdles are cleared and the market will be going higher again, we will resume our SPX trading and profit spectacularly. Stay tuned for the recovery and be patient.
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It looked promising in the morning as the stocks bounced higher possibly creating a bottoming process. But then it was slowly bleeding and erasing all morning gains. The investors continue to act as if FED is going to increase the rates to 10% or some similar number. Not the case. At the most, we will see a rise of 1%, maybe 1.5% this year. And with inflation expected to drop back to 2.5%, there will be no more hikes. The US economy is not that good to sustain such pressure. Raising rates higher will crash it.
The stock market paired all gains. What could have caused this bleed is unclear as trading was not overly volatile. VIX is actually down 1.8% on a down day. It could be several catalysts such as unemployment claims, Peloton crashing on a report of halting production on low demand, or other things investors perceive as bad.
From the technical perspective, this is not good as this will prompt more selling on Friday.
After the bell, companies such as Netflix will be reporting earnings. Will the earnings season help this market? So far, investors seem to be ignoring earnings and the market is stuck on FED and its tightening.
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After Wednesday’s market selloff we finally got a bounce. This was a second bounce last week. The question is, will a momentum hold followed by a rally – a sustainable rally, or are we seeing just a relief bounce/rally and renewed selling next week? We must wait to see.
When reviewing social media, mainly YouTube, you can see posts all calling for a crash, recession, mother of all crashes, and all the creators are telling their audience how they sold out of their positions. Their thumbnails all display flames burning behind their backs, charts crashing down through the floor, scared faces, and sensational shouts about the inevitable end of the world.
But it all indicates one thing – none of these people actually understand what forces drive the market.
I do not want to sound patronizing or pretend I am a smart cookie here. I actually didn’t know myself either until about a year ago when I learned a lot of tricks on how to look at the market to determine its health. And since I started learning and watching these indicators, I started seeing discrepancies between the market’s temporary mood and its overall health. In other words, when all the Youtubers are predicting a recession while the market is selling off, I see a few indicators telling me that there is no recession coming and that the selling is most likely a temporary correction. A good opportunity to buy a few shares of good companies.
Among those few indicators, I watch is a put-call ratio. A normal level is 0.85 – 0.90. A neutral level is 1.00. Anything below that indicates bullishness, anything above that bearishness. Look below:
The put-call ratio went up to 1.075 during this selloff. It didn’t even exceed December’s highs. And it ticked only a few tiny points above the 1.00 level. What does it tell you? It tells me that all those bears out there are either totally dumb and do not know what they are doing, or actually do not believe in what they are preaching because no one is rushing to buy puts to hedge against the imminent crash or recession. The market doesn’t expect one.
When looking at another indicator such as the VIX futures structure, I see the exact same thing. The market doesn’t expect any recession or imminent crash. At least not yet, not as of today.
And those who sold off are now sitting on a pile of cash that will proper this market higher as soon as these people start feeling the FOMO. If we have bottomed, expect a face-ripping rally.
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It is difficult to watch your portfolio value slump when the market is selling off. I am down almost $7k as of today. But I am not worried about it. Why?
It is because I hold good quality stocks. At least, I think they are good quality companies. And I haven’t sold a single share. In fact, I bought more shares of stocks like OHI and I plan on adding more shares of AAPL, SNOW, or TSLA. But I am waiting because I think, this market will provide even better prices as weak hands are panicking and selling.
Investors should be selling stocks that have high valuations and make no money (typically what Cathy Woods invests in) but not good quality stocks like Apple or even Tesla. Tesla may be highly valued but it is still a growing company and it is making cash hand over the fist, like Apple does, reinvests, and delivers. If you look at Coca-Cola (KO) that stock is trading at a premium constantly. Maybe today, when investors are dumping everything it may have gone lower already.
And I am optimistic and still think, this market will provide great returns in 2022. We just must wait out this volatility, enormous bearishness, and panic over nothing. And even a 10%, or 20% correction is nothing in the view of my investing and trading horizon. In fact, I would like this market to crash lower as I plan on picking up the leftover crumbs.
In my newsletter last week I wrote that if the recent support at $4,675 holds, expect the market to resume an uptrend and continue to the $4,875 level.
Then I added that if that level won’t hold, expect the market to go to $4,500 level:
Today, it is obvious that the market couldn’t hold that level and I expect it to continue lower to $4,500 level and possibly even down to 200-day moving average at $4,440 level. It would be a great opportunity to see that drop. I would be able to buy a lot of cheap stocks!
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I set up my investing and trading goal for 2022 and now is the time to write it down for the record. I plan on having the goal for 2022 simple and easy to track yet it may evolve over time.
In 2022, I will focus on the following tasks:
In 2022 I will continue purchasing dividend growth stocks as I did in 2021. But, I will also focus on adding high-yield dividend stocks and ETFs that are relatively safe. Here is the starting list of goals of stocks I plan on purchasing this year.
This goal is a developing task and it will morph over time and grow. It is not a rigid set of tasks. If I see a new opportunity, better than the one listed in the table above, I will shift my focus.
However, besides the dividend growth stocks, I will be buying high-yield dividend stocks such as RYLD, IEP, and QYLD (and may add other covered calls ETFs) for high yield. These stocks do not provide capital growth though but I will be purchasing them for income. I would like to create a dividend income that would offset my mortgage payments. And I am starting with HELOC to offset. That will give me peace of mind that I have cash and income saved that would help to pay my monthly payments.
The “BSV salary reserve goal” is a task that I wish to save enough cash in BSV to cover my annual salary, health insurance, taxes, etc. to be able to trade for a living. I am a conservative person, so I want to have enough savings in case the stock market pukes and I won’t be able to withdraw money from the account. In other words, I do not want to get caught with my pants down.
In December 2021, I started trading SPX again using credit put spreads. I modified the strategy and now I use simple indicators to determine whether to trade PCS or stay away.
In 2022, I will be opening trades in the following days and if the indicators tell me that it is safe to open a trade:
Mondays (7 days to expiration)
Tuesdays (30 days to expiration)
Wednesdays (7 days to expiration)
Fridays (60 days to expiration)
And every month, I will be adding an SPX hedge for black swan events.
If the indicators are negative, we will skip the trade. I dedicated $3,600 for the SPX trading, currently, the account (sub-account) is at $5,370.00, an approximate growth of 47.33%. Although it may change over time my goal will be to increase this sub-account to $10,000 by EOY.
If you are interested, you can subscribe to SPX alerts and receive an alert via email or you can follow our Twitter for the alerts (in order to follow the Twitter account, you must be a subscriber).
HFEA is again a strategy (passive with quarterly rebalancing) that involves buying 3x leveraged ETFs and holding them for growth. Other investors who use this strategy reported up to 45% earnings in their accounts. I dedicated approx. $15,000 to this strategy (representing 15% of my portfolio). In December 2021, the HFEA account was up almost 10%. In January, thanks to the wobbling market, the account lost over 6% and the entire HFEA account is up about 2.4%.
There is not much I can do about this strategy. I just hold and in March (and following months) I will be rebalancing (either adding new cash to increase the account to 15% of my entire portfolio or trimming the holdings if above the 15% threshold. And, also, rebalancing ETFs within the HFEA account to keep the target allocation).
When trimming the HFEA I plan on saving the cash to dividend stocks or ETFs. When adding cash (during underperforming quarters) I will use the saved cash to increase the HFEA balance. I have not yet decided which stock or ETF I will use. I planned to use BSV but I may elect to use another stock or ETF.
I created a 10-year plan on growing my portfolio (all accounts together) and for 2021 my goal was to reach $42,344.06 net liq value. I calculated the initial balance and its increase based on estimated growth from options trading, stocks accumulation, stocks growth, and received dividends. The year 2021 was so exceptional that I exceeded that goal almost three times.
Well, I do not expect this to happen in 2022. But I did the same calculation as in 2021 and my new goal for the portfolio value is $151,638.03.
I still have goals from last year that are long-term:
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: achieve $175,000.00 net-liq value.
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: achieve $1,000,000.00 net-liq value.
These goals are well underway and if my portfolio growth keeps growing at the estimated pace, I should be able to achieve the 6-year goal next year in lieu of planned 2024 and the $1M goal may get accomplished at the end of year 9. Let’s see, how 2022 progresses.
Although I primarily focus on dividend stocks, I also want to own a few tech stocks such as Apple (AAPL), Snowflake (SNOW), Amazon (AMZN), Tesla (TSLA), Google (GOOGL), etc. In 2022 I plan to invest in these stocks but keep my exp[osure to 10% of my entire portfolio, though. The ultimate goal will be to reach 100 shares of each to be able to sell covered calls.
My goal with all my stock holdings is to reach 100 shares so I can start selling covered calls against these positions. I will be also selling strangles (and strive to cover them, to have enough cash to cover the put side, and own 100 shares to cover the call side. In 2021, trading strangles and covered calls was my biggest moneymaker. I will continue to do so in 2022 although at a slower pace.
At the top of this blog, I state “making 45% annually trading options against dividend growth stocks”. In 2021 I made over 62%. In 2022, I plan to achieve 30%.
In 2020 and 2021 I added SPY LEAPS contracts to my holdings. The 2020 LEAPS is my biggest gainer. It is unrealized gain, though I will be rolling the LEAPS further away at some point cashing my gains. In 2022 I plan on adding one or two more contracts of the SPY LEAPS to my portfolio.
That’s all for 2022. I will be reporting progress on this goal regularly:
Every week, I will report my overall portfolio progress and achievements the same way as I did last year.
I will also report my SPX sub-account progress every week.
Every month, I will report HFEA and Challenge account progress.
I would like to ask you if you could write me in the comments what you want to see in my reports or if you want to see them modified and how. Also, please hit the like button under this post so I know you liked the content and that you want to see more of it in the future. Thank you!
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