Will we see a Septembear or Septembull from now on? August correction is over. I know it is a bold statement, and you may find many people out there who would oppose and disagree with me. CNBC keeps pulling bears from the past who got stuck in the past, and they keep predicting a bear market, recession, and the end of the world. It’s almost comical.

The US economy was resilient and strong despite rapid interest hikes from the FED, but that started changing. The very last jobless claims report we received on Friday started showing cracks in the labor market. Bears use it as evidence for their recession claims. But the charts of multiple economic data show otherwise. The chance, not prediction, of a continuing bull market is higher than the odds of a recession. People fail to acknowledge different circumstances to what was happening in 2020-2023. We could be rightfully worried if the monetary policy happened during normal boring years. But 2020 was not a normal, boring year. A sudden economic stop moved the pendulum of economic balance way to the extreme. In 2021, that pendulum swung to another extreme. In 2022, we overshot to the opposite extreme again, and in 2023 that pendulum is attempting to get back to the mean. I don’t think this is recessionary unless the FED screws it all up (yes, the chance is high).

 

 

But, so far, J. P. is managing this economic monster well to a soft landing (if there will be any landing at all, it could just be a normal slowdown).
The market finished off August on a high note. Interest rates fell with a big drop in the Job Openings (JOLTS) numbers. The tech stocks had a good week. Oil is becoming a big story as it is hitting $86.05 per barrel today (Saturday). I fear that supply is being weaponized against us by countries that don’t like us.
President Biden cannot turn to an almost depleted Strategic Oil Reserve this time to help keep prices down. It is also very questionable whether he has the will to fight back by increasing supply in the U.S. The energy and tech sectors continue to look best right now.