Weekly Newsletter   Challenge account   Weekly Newsletter   


Last week markets performance – should we be worried?


SPY

 
Last week in Wall Street was somewhat stable and without any excessive hiccups. Yet it still was driven by fools. The recovery from the recent correction, if we can call it a correction, has been steady. As you can see in the chart above, we experienced a strong V shaped recovery.

A week ago, investors were selling stocks sharply and buying government bonds (as if they were supposed to save them) and this week they were selling bonds and buying stocks as they (probably) realized how foolish they were.

As Eric Jackson said in his interview for Breakout that what we just have experienced, was a great evidence of unreasonable irrationality of investors out there frantically selling one sort of assets and buying another sort of assets right after the storm and not prior to it. Dividend investors and value investors know this and they stay calm. They do not sell whenever a market shows a sign of weakness. On the contrary, many start buying.

It is a reason, why so many investors lose money at Wall Street rather than make them.

I must admit that in the past I acted the same way. Whenever a market coughed I started selling hoping to buy later at a lower price. Jesse Livermore, a legendary trader of the late 19th and early 20th century called such investors “suckers” and he happily deprived them from their money in bucket shops (small trading street brokers).

Other than that, markets were calmed down by Janet Yellen’s claim that she would continue in tapering of the QE. I think nobody believes it anymore; except talking heads. But will she really do it? Some commentators out there fail to acknowledge that she added a few conditions to tapering – positive data. Will we have positive data such as employment, GDP, etc.?

If you are a common citizen who live off his hard work, you know, how hard it is to make your living. If you are a politician, banker, an employee of a large brokerage as a trader, or a Hollywood star, you are probably out of touch of reality and do not understand, that we are far from recovery.

The markets are propped by QE and cheap money and not the real strong and sustainable economic data. And if QE ends, the rally dies with it. Should we be worried that something bigger is waiting just right behind the corner?

Once, I have heard that economic crisis come and go in cycles. We have circa 7 years of prosperity followed by 7 years of crisis, and so on. Where are we though? In which cycle?

The goal of every investor should be to make money, but also to protect them. Protect his gains and his principal. As a dividend investor my principal is not as important as my gains – dividends.

Make sure they are safe and you will prosper.

And what about my options? During falling markets, selling puts can be a bit of frustrating (worst case scenario, you will be assigned your long wanted dividend stocks). Lowering your strike price deeper out of the money can help you significantly in mitigating that frustration.

My accounts did very well last week and jumped up in value, check my charts on My Holdings page.

I have received nice dividends this week ($150.00 in all combined accounts) and next week we will be heading towards expiration Friday when two of my option contracts will expire worthless (unless a catastrophe happens). With that, I will be able to claim another $142.42 income from collected premium.

My all combined accounts are up by +7.41%

What about you? How do you protect your gains so you do not give them up when markets slump?
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Posted by Martin February 13, 2014
2 Comments



 




Yellen’s plan for boosting the weak jobs market is no plan again


 
Our impotent government along with FED has been feeding us with fake job data since 2008. Everybody knows it, but nobody does anything about it.

Where are all those “shovel ready jobs” Obama was feeding the nation during 2012 election? Did he mean shovel ready hamburger flipping at McDonalds?

Our nation is suffering from goofed up recovery. We will pay a dire price for “too big to fail” theory and a fatal Keynesian misunderstanding of economy and beliefs that spending and increasing debt would improve our economy. Since when taking more debt to pay the old debt did ever help you or your family? What, then, makes our politicians to believe it will help the country?

It is a great example showing that our country is led by dilettantes who have never held a job, created a job, or run a company.

As Peter Schiff says, “we didn’t undergo a real recovery, but only postponed the catastrophe”. We just kicked the can further down the street, took away a future from our kids and spent it today on something what will fail anyway. Well, not you or me, but our politicians.

If you think otherwise, then why the job participation is slumping? Why job creation is worse than mediocre? Why we have a hidden inflation (just compare prices of a gallon of milk now versus 3 years ago)? Or why housing prices are drifting lower or stagnating?

In the video above, Jim Rickards is right pointing out, that our job market has different problems and that Janet Yellen is again, like her predecessor, going to use a wrong cure.
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Posted by Martin February 13, 2014
No Comments



 




Caution ahead: Market bounce is breeding overconfidence


Today, I found an interesting video. It is not interesting because of the announced overconfidence on the markets that all the dividend growth and value investors probably know of, but there was one very interesting point about market participants’ behavior, which sparked my attention.

Many times, I was stunned by how irrational investors can be and how stupidly they can act when trading and investing in the markets.

If you ever wondered why sometimes markets react so wildly, Eric Jackson in this video explains it clearly. As he mentioned, last week investors were moving from the stock market into bonds, just to move back from bonds into stocks this week.

Such moves must be extremely expensive! Aren’t they? No wonder that investors usually lose money or are unable to beat S&P 500 index over time and their performance is mediocre.

So, the task is to act as a contrarian. Sometimes, you need to stomach those scary looking moves investors perform out there and stay calm, wait for them to stop overreacting, and then start buying your stocks.

I try doing it that way. When I see panic spreading around, I do not buy right away. I usually wait a few days. If you have time watching markets during the panic period, you will be able to notice and feel when the panic starts slowing down. Some other tools such as VIX index, or Greed & Fear index will help you to gauge the intensity of the fear and when it is slowing down. Then, I use my contingency orders to trail my stocks of interest down and buy at a major reversal from the bottom.

What about you? Do you watch market closely during panics out there to get best price and best value for your buck when buying stocks on sale or you do not care? Share with us your strategy.




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Martin February 11, 2014
No Comments



 




Paul Craig Roberts on the US economy and paper versus physical gold


In today’s headline story, all eyes were fixed on Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who delivered her first public remarks to the US House Financial-Services Committee. In addition, in a lawsuit filed on Monday, the non-profit group Better Markets has challenged the constitutionality of the $13 billion JPMorgan Chase mortgage settlement with the US Justice Department. And in Washington, Republican leaders in the House of Representatives agreed to advance legislation, raising Washington’s borrowing authority without conditions. Erin Ade reports.

Then, Erin conducts a wide-ranging interview with economist Paul Craig Roberts, an Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan Administration and a co-founder of Reaganomics. He has voiced his concerns about the strength of the US economy, US politics, and US civil liberties. Roberts also believes the US is playing fast and loose with the monetary system and the value of the dollar. He speculates that, as the German Bundesbank has begun repatriating its gold from overseas out of storage in places like the Federal Reserve, the Fed will not be able to make delivery because it doesn’t physically possess the gold. Similarly, Roberts does not believe Gold ETF funds have enough physical gold to back their exchange traded fund shares.

Wrapping up our money theme, in today’s “Big Deal”, Erin and Boom Bust producer Edward Harrison discuss the outlawing of Bitcoin wallet apps on iOS, Apple’s mobile platform, and the rise of ePayments in the mobile world.

BoomBust




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



New Trade – Digital Dollars motif at Motif Investing


Today I bought another motif of my interest at Motif Investing – Digital Dollars.

This Motif was created by Motif Investing. Why I bought it? The reason is the exact same why I recently bought MasterCard to my ROTH IRA account.

We can see more and more people using different ways paying for their bills and shopping. We are now using plastic or online transactions more than cash. There are companies which will benefit from this transition as we already could see in previous years. The non-cash transactions reached $333 billion in 2012 and it is growing by 8% in average annually.

I believe, this is a growth industry as more online payment processing will become significant in other countries than the US itself.

If you like companies like Visa, MasterCard, Amex, or payment processor because of the way they make money, buying this motif is right for you. For a little cash you can own a fraction of those companies now and slowly build your portfolio all the way up and benefit from the growth of that industry right away. You do not have to wait for saving enough cash to buy just one company from this portfolio. You can buy them all with your first investment and add to it next time.

What is my next plan then?

There are two more motifs I am interested in so far (it may change). One is a 3D printing motif which contains companies involved in 3D printing industry. Although 3D printing was developed in 1980, the latest industry is gaining steam as more adjacent industries such as aerospace & defense, automotive, education, or healthcare start seeing a great potential of cheaper manufacturing.

The second motif I am interested in is a collection of MLPs offering 7% + dividend yield.

At this point I am saving another cash amount to purchase the 3D printing motif and the MLPs motif. Once these two motifs will be purchased, I will start investing equally into all motifs I have and rotate my investments.

I will be buying:

 

 

What about you? Do you think it is a better idea to buy a whole bunch of stocks with one purchase and accumulate a bulk portfolio or would you rather stick to saving cash for each individual stock and build your portfolio slowly one stock at a time?

If you think investing into ideas via Motif Investing, support this blog by opening a new account via this Motif Investinglink. Thanks a lot!
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Posted by Martin February 09, 2014
No Comments



 




Milton Friedman – Lesson of the Pencil


I wish that many of the leftists watch this video, as today, so many are forgetting the principles of free market and think that any form of socialism, central control, or regulations is better.

Well, it is not.

 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
No Comments



Posted by Martin February 08, 2014
2 Comments



 




The Biggest Scam In The History Of Mankind – Hidden Secrets of Money





We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Posted by Martin February 06, 2014
2 Comments



 




New trade – MasterCard (MA) buy long stock – building my ROTH

New trade – MasterCard (MA) buy long stock – building my ROTH

Today I bought 16 shares of MasterCard (MA) stock. It was a long wanted trade, but I never did it. At first I bought Visa (V) a few days after IPO for $45 a share and a few months later I sold it for $55 a share.

 
(MORE: January Recap – Compounding Income)
 

I was a chicken. I didn’t understand Visa nor MasterCard and I sold. Now Visa is trading for circa $200 a share. Since my sell, I have been kicking my butt for selling.

MasterCard was selling for $840 a share and that was a bit discouraging. In January the company split the stock 10:1 and $84 a share was “affordable” for me. When the correction in Wall Street started, the stock dropped to $74 a share and even a bit lower. That was something which caught my attention.

 
(MORE: How To Establish A Circle of Wealth – Brick by Brick Investing)
 

MasterCard is not a dividend company I would normally buy. It’s yield is puny (only 0.60%), it’s dividend growth is 29%, but they only have 1 year dividend history.

So why I bought it?

It is the unique business model MasterCard and Visa use to make money. Many people fail to understand this model. The greatest example of that failure is when you saw credit card companies and banks falling during the credit crisis, or credit fees caps, Visa and MasterCard were falling too. But none of them are exposed to borrowers, none of them risk a loss of money unlike lenders. MasterCard and Visa make money on fees whenever you swipe your plastic, be it debit or credit card. That’s it. They do not lend money, they do not deal with delinquencies, nothing like that.

 
(MORE: The Elephant In My Portfolio – Retire before dad)
 

They are just a money processing gateway and they get always paid for it.

This makes them so unique and money cows which made me to correct my previous mistake and buy it. Both are loaded with cash and both have no or little debt.

What else you want?

 
(MORE: Is Anyone Really Surprised by The Recent Stock Market Sell Off?! – The Fast Weekly)
 

I believe, MasterCard will grow back to hundreds level again. I can’t say when that happen, but it will happen. And I want to ride that wave.

To buy MasterCard I used my contingency or conditional trigger order trade. Below see the list of the triggers I maintained for this stock. At the beginning I could buy only 15 shares of this stock, but over time as MA was falling, my buy order was trailing the price and I could buy 16 shares cheaper:

 

02/04/2014 20:02:24 If the last of MA is greater or equal to 75.94
Buy 15 MA at limit $75.94


02/05/2014 20:34:52 If the last of MA is greater or equal to 74.63
Buy 15 MA at limit $74.63


02/05/2014 22:20:39 If the last of MA is greater or equal to 74.27
Buy 15 MA at limit $74.27


02/06/2014 10:44:30 If the last of MA is greater or equal to 74.27
Buy 16 MA at limit $74.27

The last order was fired and executed.

 
(MORE: Value Investors Are Now Buying Apple – Dennismccain)
 

Of course I could buy cheaper if I bought yesterday when the price dropped to 72-ish level, but when using conditional order, you want to set up a bit higher price to give the stock a wiggling space. In that case you make sure you won’t get executed and the stock continues lower and making you a losing position. With higher strike price, there is a better chance that the stock reversal is not a fake and that the stock will continue up.

 
(MORE: January 2014 Net Worth Update – FI Fighter)
 

Of course, it is not bullet proof strategy, but it can save you a few buck by buying cheaper.

And of course, I released cash for this trade by selling my RWX commission free savings as you can read about here. At first I had a dilemma which stock to buy, you can read about it here, but then I made a choice to go with MA this time. My next purchase will be a high yield dividend stock.
 
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
2 Comments



Posted by Martin February 03, 2014
4 Comments



 




Minimum wage? Yes? Then watch this!


 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
4 Comments



My investing Strategy – Dividend growth investing, part 2


Plan and StrategyHere is a continuation of my previous Strategy post, part 1. This time I would like to write about each part of my strategy more in detail, so you can see how I invest.

In the previous post I mentioned that I apply a few different strategies and use different accounts for those strategies. The reason for using different accounts is that some trading or investing has different requirements on cash management and it can be difficult to keep finances in an account organized.

I am a mechanical engineer and I like to have all things organized, sized, and put together exactly as any operational manual says in order to function well. Thus I like to have different accounts for different strategies.

 
(MORE: How I Analyze And Value Stocks – Dividend Mantra)
 

You may not like it that way and keep all your finances and investments together. If it works for you well, there is no need to change what you are doing.

Originally, I used only one account for my options trading and dividend growth investing at the same time, but many times I run into a situation that my options maintenance requirements prevented me from buying a stock I wanted.

Why dividend growth investing?

It was a long journey for me to land on this strategy. I tried almost everything out there, but no strategy satisfied my hunch: income. When my account was small I always was asking myself a question: “Where can I get more money to invest more?”

Dividend Growth Video,
courtesy Dan Mac, Dividend Growth Stock Investing

I wasn’t satisfied with my contributions to my account I did every month. I wanted more money contributed to my account every month which I could take and invest into more stocks.

At first, I invested into growth stocks. I envisioned myself hitting home runs every month. I doubled or even tripled my account at some point, but then I lost everything quickly. This was an eye opener. I realized that all gains I had were not sustainable and I couldn’t be sure whether I could repeat them next time. And losses were eating up my account value more than I was able contributing to it.

Then I came across dividend paying stocks. At first I wasn’t impressed. I considered 3% income too small to make any difference in my account and dividend paying companies too big and lazy to make any capital gains.

I didn’t see the power behind them – power of compounding and growth.

Once I realized how dividend growth stocks work and how they can make you rich faster than any other investment and most important – they can deliver additional contributions to my account, I knew, this was the strategy for me.

 
(MORE: Why Dividend Growth Companies Make the Best Investments – Dividend Growth Stock Investing)
 

Why dividend growth companies are superior?

People who do not invest in dividend stocks say that those companies are limiting their growth. When they pay a dividend, they have less money available for their growth – reinvestment, R&D (research and development), or capex (capital expenditures), and that is the reason, why they lack behind growth stocks.

I thought the exact same thing when I believed I could make more money investing into more volatile growth stocks.Where to invest?

But the reality is different. The way I look at it is that growth stocks are promising you a fortune at some point in the future, which may not happen if you do not buy low and sell high, while dividend paying companies are making you richer slowly over time and during the time before you get to the “some point in the future”.

So ask yourself a question – do you want to wait 20 years for a promised fortune or do you want to receive part of it today?

 
(MORE: Profits and dividends of the stocks of DAX 30 – Dividenden-Sammler)
 

Here are the reasons why I see dividend companies superior to any other companies:

It is a known fact that 50% of all gains of S&P 500 is made of dividends. So why not let your account have the same?

Dividend companies are more cautious with their capital expenditures than their nonpaying peers. Since they have less money left to invest, they invest wisely. I read a study comparing two companies, one was a dividend payer, the other wasn’t paying a dime. While the first was carefully selecting their acquisitions, the second was acquiring one competitor after another in a quest for getting stronger. Later, acquisitions of Leer hurt the company and it almost went bankrupt.

Dividend companies tend to grow at the same rate as their dividend growth. Have you ever noticed that many times you check a dividend yield of a company it states a certain yield, for example 3%, almost forever? When I was investigating dividend investing I checked JNJ yield and I was watching it for a few years. During that period of time, it always indicated the yield oscillating around 3%. How is it possible when the company grows its yield by 9% annually? I bought JNJ many years ago (at that time for a different reason that dividend growth investing). Back then it was trading around $54 a share and its yield was 3.5%. Today, JNJ is trading at $88 a share and its yield is 2.9%.

Dividends are great indicator of company’s health. No matter what Wall Street thinks and how deep they trash the stock because of whatever irrational reason, the company is healthy if it still can afford paying and increasing the dividend.

 
(MORE: Investment Tips – Never Lose Money – MoneyAhoy)
 

Power of compounding

Here comes the best part of dividend investing and why it is a far better strategy than anything else. Since the companies share their income with you now and not anytime in the far distant blurred future, you can take that income and do the following:

 

  • spend it
  • reinvest it

 

If you buy a growth stock, you have nothing left after the purchase. You have to contribute your own money to buy more. You now have to wait for the stock to appreciate in time and sell it in order to make a profit. If you do not sell it, you risk that the stock plummets and erase all your gains.

 
(MORE: Negative Value for my Portfolio… – Financial Freedom)
 

If you buy a dividend stock, you are also waiting for it to appreciate in price and during that waiting time you collect dividends. Then price appreciation isn’t that important to you and you can wait as long as you wish. If the price plummets, you do not mind it, because you are still collecting the same and growing dividend. If the price plummets, you can take that dividend and buy more shares. And you do not have to add more money to your account. And as you buy more shares, you start receiving even more dividends. It is that simple.

Income

Now that you know why I love dividend growth strategy, formulating my dividend strategy is easy. Here are the steps I will be taking to reach my goal. Let me repeat my goal:

My goal is not to reach a certain amount saved or a certain account balance, but make sure all my portfolios can safely generate enough cash flow every month no matter how big the accounts are.

 
(MORE: Developing a Game Plan Using Sector Weighting – RetireBeforeDad)
 

Accounts

I will use this strategy fully on my ROTH IRA account.

I will use this strategy partially on my TD account as a value preserving tool and contributions generating tool. More on this in the next part.

 
(MORE: Is It Ever Too Late to Invest in the Stock Market? – Frugal Rules)
 

Money management

I will be saving cash through commission free ETF in my ROTH IRA account. With my current saving rate and dividend income I can reach my cash purchase amount in four months. During that period I let my free cash waiting in the ETF which also pays me nice dividend/distribution (currently 8.6%).

To summarize it, I will buy a commission free ETF using all my contributions and received dividends to save enough cash purchase amount.

Once I save the cash purchase amount, which currently is $1200, I sell a portion of the ETF to get $1000 out of it.

As soon as I get $1000 out of the ETF, I will purchase a dividend paying stock.

 
(MORE: 11 Monthly Dividend Stocks That Let You Sleep Well At Night – Brick by Brick Investing)
 

Time horizon and saving phases

I have 25 years before I will be legally allowed withdrawing money from my ROTH IRA account. That is a plenty of time to build a nice nest egg. This allows me to split my wealth building effort into three phases:
 

  1. aggressive accumulation phase
  2. consolidating accumulation phase
  3. retirement phase

 
Aggressive accumulation phase

I will dedicate 10 years to buying high yielding stocks such as MLPs, REITs or other industries which offer high yield. I will focus on companies with yield over 4.5% trying to get companies paying around 7 – 8% yield. I will look for companies which increase their dividends and have at least 1 year dividend history. I will not focus on the growth as much as on the yield. I will strictly reinvest all dividends back to these companies.

I will invest into true dividend growth companies only if they offer an excellent entry point (usually during market sell offs).

This phase will end in 2022.

 
(MORE: How To Be A Bad Investor – KrantCents)
 

Consolidating accumulation phase

I will dedicate the remaining 15 years to buying true dividend growth companies. I will be looking for companies offering great growth and yield and focusing on growth more than the yield. I will be looking for companies paying out min. 2.5% yield but offering more than 6% dividend growth. The dividend income from previous accumulation phase should be large enough to help boost my portfolio and add dividend growth stocks quickly and let them grow for next 15 years.

This phase will end in 2037

 
(MORE: Why Should I Become a DIY Investor? – The Dividend Guy)
 

Retirement phase

In 2037 I will be allowed to start withdrawing my cash from ROTH IRA for retirement purposes. I know I can withdraw earlier all contributions, but this is not my plan. To retire early I have a different plan and different account.Relax

Once I will be able to withdraw money from my ROTH IRA account, I will be withdrawing dividends only and I will be withdrawing 85% of it only and reinvest the rest.
 

 
(MORE: What Makes A Good 401k Plan – The First Million is the Hardest)
 

Read previous parts:

My investing Strategy – part 1
 




We all want to hear your opinion on the article above:
6 Comments





This site has been fine-tuned by 14 WordPress Tweaks