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Posted by Martin July 29, 2023
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July 2023 Investing and Trading Report


July 2023 is over and our investing and trading performed very well again. We added generated options income of $4,484.00 last month. We also added new shares to our portfolio and started consolidating it by increasing cash reserves. Our dividend income was $478.37 last month.

Our cash to buying power dropped a bit as we continued reinvesting our proceeds:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 07
 

Our options trading delivered $4,484.00 gain last month (5.36%). Our net-liq value increased by 8.04% to $83,653.41 value. Our overall account is up 34.37% YTD and -20.06% from when the bear market started in January 2022.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $83,653.41 +$6,727.20 +8.04%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$4,484.00
01 January 2023 Options: +$1,466.00 +1.97%
02 February 2023 Options: $2,754.00 +10.34%
03 March 2023 Options: -$1,462.00 -2.05%
04 April 2023 Options: +$16,410.00 +8.54%
05 May 2023 Options: +$6,942.00 +9.85%
06 June 2023 Options: +$3,116.00 +4.05%
07 July 2023 Options: +$4,484.00 +5.36%
Options Premiums YTD: +$33,481.00 +40.02%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: +$478.37
01 January 2023 Dividends: +$407.13
02 February 2023 Dividends: +$731.21
03 March 2023 Dividends: +$482.14
04 April 2023 Dividends: +$820.22
05 May 2023 Dividends: +$590.19
06 June 2023 Dividends: +$848.65
07 July 2023 Dividends: +$478.37
Dividends YTD: +$4,480.61
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $243,222.75 +$26,316.51 +12.13%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.46%
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 23.02%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $427,746.29 180.37%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $8,744,708,315.20 3,687,377.30%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $233,549,734,661,234.00 98,480,813,628.74%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $629,659,402,153,012,000,000.00 265,508,202,451,862,000.00%
Portfolio Alpha: 34.09%
Sharpe Ratio: 4.63 EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.54
CAGR: 218.60%
AROC: 41.43%
TROC: 11.40%
Our 2023 Goal
2023 Dividend Goal: $8,000.00 56.01% In Progress
2023 Options Income Goal: $70,000 47.83% In Progress
2023 Portfolio Value Goal: $96,532.51 86.66% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 47.80% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 8.37% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 

In June 2023 we have received $478.37 in dividends bringing our dividend income at $4,480.61.


Last month, we bought these dividend growth stocks:

 
– 2 shares of TXRH @ $114.86
 
Building up the position using options income.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity 7
 

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout 7

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 


In June 2023, we bought the following growth stocks and funds:
 

  • 100 shares of GOOGL @ $121.00
     
    I got assigned to my puts that expired in the money. I decided to keep the shares and started selling covered calls.
     

 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

In July 2023, our options trading delivered a gain of $4,484.00. I used this income to adjust some of the SPX trades that needed adjustment so they can expire worthless. I also opened a few new SPX trades.

 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 

We received $478.37 in dividends last month. Our portfolio currently yields 5.46% at $83,653.41 market value. I am happy with this progress as I am nearing a $1,000 a month in dividend income. As of today, our projected monthly dividend income is $757.66 (the real income is $373.38, but that is because our new holdings didn’t pay the dividend yet). Note that these numbers are averages. One month we get less another month we get more income.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $427,746.29, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $9,091.89 annual dividend income ($757.66 monthly income). We are 2.13% of our 10 year goal of $427,746.29 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC 06
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 

Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $216,906.24 to $243,222.75 last month.

In 2023 we planned on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading 7
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.

 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 5.36% monthly ROI in July 2023, totaling a 40.02% ROI YTD. We plan to exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks. But as of today, we may not be able to achieve that goal as we use a lot of income for repairs of trades that got inn trouble during 2022 bear market. Although, we are slowly crawling out of the hole, our performance may suffer this year.

Our entire account is still down -20.06% from when the bear market started. However, in 2023 our account is up 34.37% YTD. During 2022 bear market it became apparent that although I had a lot of cash savings, I didn’t have enough. So my goal for the rest of the year will be accumulating cash. The market is again in an overbought territory so I will not be making new purchases, rather, I will be saving cash for the next crash.

Our trading averaged $4,783.00 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $57,396.00 in trading options in 2023. As of today, we have made $33,481.00 in trading options. This is below our projected goal. Based on the goal, we should average $5,834 options income per month. But I hope, as the year progresses, we can increase options income to our goal.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq 7
 

The drawdown of our account is highly discouraging, but it started improving. I am not selling any stock positions, and I will be buying back those I sold to release our Buying Power. On top of that, I will be buying more dividend-paying shares as much as possible.

 

Account Stocks holding

 

TW Account holdings 7
 

Last month, S&P 500 grew 58.40% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 27.67%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 grew 25.67% and our portfolio 18.19%. We are underperforming market by -7.49%.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings adjusted by options premiums.

 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 

TW Account holdings Growth YTD 7
 

Our stock holdings are underperforming the market. Hopefully, this trend will improve, and we will do better than S&P 500.

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 8.37% of that goal.

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 47.80% of that goal.

Our 2023 year goal is to grow this account to a $96,532.51, and today we accomplished 86.66% of this goal.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 

TW Options Trading Income 7
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income 7

 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends 7
 

We planned to make $8,000.00 in dividend income in 2023. As of today, we received $4,480.61. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $9,091.89 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $757.66, and our current monthly dividend income is $373.38.

 
TW Received vs Future monthly Dividends 7

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button, so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 




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Posted by Martin July 19, 2023
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Technical view: Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)


Technical view
 

ABNB is in stage #2. The stock just broke above its resistance at $130 a share and rallied hard. The stock is reaching another resistance at $145, and we need to see if it breaks above it but I would assume it would gain momentum and breaks it. The weekly chart shows the breakout nicely. The company became profitable last year, and I expect this stock to reach $245 a share in the next 5 years.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading ABNB Technical View:




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Posted by Martin July 12, 2023
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Technical view: Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA)


Technical view
 

WBA is in stage #4. The company reported bad earnings and a gloomy outlook last week. It sold off by 10% immediately. The company announced a closure of 450 locations and earnings was a miss. But not by much. Only by 6.3%. I have seen companies missing by far more. And investors are asking a question. Is WBA a buy? Or is the company going to blow? Both charts indicate a gloomy look. The stock was selling off since 2015 and even the 2021 mania didn’t help.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading WBA Technical View:




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Posted by Martin July 08, 2023
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The market is overbought, again, preservation is the key


The market is now entering a new era. Back in October 2022, when I called the bottom, it was an easy pick. You could pick any tech stock, and today you would be a winner. Yes, the traditional stocks were the laggards, but since then, they have picked up the steam and rallied as well. But today, the valuation is a problem once again and the market is overbought.

During the days when bears were all around predicting the end of the world, I was buying shares of Apple, Amazon, Google, and other tech stocks. I wish I had more cash to buy more of these stocks. Bears were raging, I was buying. Now the bears are turning into bulls, chasing the stocks that are now expensive again, and I am sitting on large gains. My Apple position is at 69% gain, Amazon at 52%, Google at 14.7%, SNOW at 1,132%, SPXL at 111.7%, and MSFT at 37.8%. And these stocks are no longer cheap. Former bears are chasing them, I keep sitting tight and creating cash reserves. Cash and gains preservation is the key now.

My problem was that I was buying on margin. And during the bear market, the margin was shrinking fast. And although I had almost $40,000 in cash, I needed more. I invested during the bear market and increased my stock holdings by 40%. This effort will pay off later in the future. In dividend income, it is already paying off. In 2022 the dividend income doubled (it went from $2,785 to $5,868 annual income). But it took a lot of work. I constantly ran out of buying power despite holding $40,000 in cash. I raged at my broker and their Apex clearing firm for increasing the buying power maintenance and ruining my path to millions. But then I realized that a $200k portfolio needed more cash to cover margin requirements during the bear markets.

 
market is overbought
 

So I am now advocating for cash preservation. Cash is king now that the market is overbought and there is still a risk that we may see a recession.

I do not think this market will crash. We are in a secular bull market that will last another 10+ years. But that doesn’t mean we will see a smooth straight rally. There will be volatility. We will see pullbacks, corrections, or bear markets on the way up. And the portfolio must survive these pulses. In 2022, I was trying to buy depressed stocks, but then when the market dropped again, I was forced to sell them (my biggest regret was Netflix when I bought it below $200 a share but was forced to get rid of it later due to a margin call. Today it trades at $400+ a share! It is now late to be buying). I realized that to survive, I must double my cash reserves.

When the markets are falling, buy hated stocks; when the markets are rallying, save the cash for the time when the markets turn around again. Preservation is the key. And today, it is time for preservation!
 
 




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Posted by Martin July 05, 2023
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Technical view: AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)


Technical view
 

ABBV is in stage #3. The stock is in a sideways move with a slightly downward trend, possibly morphing into stage #4 if the selling continues. As you can see on the weekly chart, the stock was under serious selling pressure during 2018 and 2019 years. Investors were dumping the stock of a fear of something that was yet to come. And all of them who sold the stock off, bought it back at higher prices and those who were buying were laughing. The stock recovered and reached new highs in 2022. Where was the fear of expiring Humira patent back then? And now, history repeats itself. The same story, same fear.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading ABBV Technical View:




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Posted by Martin July 04, 2023
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June 2023 Investing and Trading Report


I can’t believe that another month is behind us again. It was again a successful month to our investing and trading. We added income from options trading of $3,116.00 but we also added new shares to our portfolio and started consolidating it (finally, we started creating cash reserves which were depleted during 2022 bear market). Our dividend income was also very positive as we added $848.65 in dividends last month.

Our cash to buying power dropped a bit as we continued reinvesting our proceeds:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 04
 

Our options trading delivered $3,116.00 gain last month (4.05%). Our net-liq value increased by 8.40% to $76,926.21 value. Our overall account is up 23.56% YTD and -26.49% from when the bear market started in January 2022.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $76,926.21 +$6,462.68 +8.40%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$3,116.00
01 January 2023 Options: +$1,466.00 +1.97%
02 February 2023 Options: $2,754.00 +10.34%
03 March 2023 Options: -$1,462.00 -2.05%
04 April 2023 Options: +$16,410.00 +8.54%
05 May 2023 Options: +$6,942.00 +9.85%
06 June 2023 Options: +$3,116.00 +4.05%
Options Premiums YTD: +$28,997.00 +37.69%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: +$848.65
01 January 2023 Dividends: +$407.13
02 February 2023 Dividends: +$731.21
03 March 2023 Dividends: +$482.14
04 April 2023 Dividends: +$820.22
05 May 2023 Dividends: +$590.19
06 June 2023 Dividends: +$848.65
Dividends YTD: +$4,002.24
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $216,906.24 +$28,600.25 +15.19%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.66%
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 23.02%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $431,557.94 196.14%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $10,675,001,955.09 4,851,802.15%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $331,788,509,367,599.00 150,798,305,198.86%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $1,059,557,329,899,100,000,000.00 481,570,172,259,309,000.00%
Portfolio Alpha: 31.93%
Sharpe Ratio: 5.85 EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.52
CAGR: 218.27%
AROC: 38.91%
TROC: 9.84%
Our 2023 Goal
2023 Dividend Goal: $8,000.00 50.03% In Progress
2023 Options Income Goal: $70,000 41.42% In Progress
2023 Portfolio Value Goal: $96,532.51 79.69% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 43.96% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 7.69% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 

In June 2023 we have received $848.65 in dividends bringing our dividend income at $4,002.24.


Last month, we bought these dividend growth stocks:

 
– 110 shares of IEP @ $22.27
 
As IEP continued sharply lower we started adding shares of this fund to our portfolio. We now own 250 shares of this company. We are receiving a a juicy dividend and sell options around this position.

 
– 50 shares of ICSH @ $50.12
 
We started saving cash in this fund as the market is becoming overbought we want to have cash to be buying new companies when the market crashes again. We want to have cash reserves to cover the margin and new purchases.

 
– 100 shares of PSTL @ $14.90
 
We added this fund to our holdings. We now hold 100 shares and we started selling covered calls.

 
– 10 shares of ABBV @ $137.98
 
Investors are dumping ABBV on a fear of expired Humira drug and competition providing a biosimilar drug at 85% discount. However, if you read about it a bit, you will learn that it is not that easy to suddenly switch from the original drug to the generic substitution due to agreements (and huge discounts) with insurance companies. So, unless the insurer has means to switch all its clients to the new generic drug, the process will not be as easy as it seems. Switching to a new drug would mean losing discounts and promotions and it could be very costly for the insurance and patients to do so. So, hold your horses. This ain’t gonna happen overnight. And while other are panicking, I am buying more shares.

 
– 5 shares of VICI @ $32.24
 
I think this is a grossly underrated stock, so I am adding more shares before investors finally catch up. It still may take years before they realize how wrong they were about VICI and when that happens, hopefully, I will be fully invested.
 

My 100 shares of WBA were called away at $32.50 a share (I was selling covered calls and they end up in the money) right before earnings. Now the stock dropped to $28 a share. I sold 30 strike puts and hopefully to buy back at 30 (or less as I will be rolling the puts down if the stock continues dropping).

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity June 2023
 

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout June 2023

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 


In June 2023, we bought the following growth stocks and funds:
 

  • 32 shares of CROX @ $107.52
     
    I am accumulating this stock now to reach 100 shares after which we will start selling covered calls. I now own 32 shares.
     
  • 40 shares of TMUS @ $130.54
     
    My shares of TMUS were called away last month at $155 a share. I started selling puts at $135 a share but as the stock kept falling (who knows why) I rolled the puts down and converted the position to a spread and added a call spread. At the same time, I decided to accumulate 100 shares slower and use verticals to generate income. I plan on accumulating 100 shares again.

 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

In June 2023, our options trading delivered a gain of $3,116.00. I used this income to adjust some of the SPX trades that needed adjustment so they can expire worthless. I also opened a few new SPX trades.

 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 

We received $848.65 in dividends last month. Our portfolio currently yields 5.66% at $76,926.21 market value. I am happy with this progress as I am nearing a $1,000 a month in dividend income. As of today, our projected monthly dividend income is $733.00 (the real income is $333.52, but that is because our new holdings didn’t pay the dividend yet). Note that these numbers are averages. One month we get less another month we get more income.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $431,557.94, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $8,795.99 annual dividend income ($733.00 monthly income). We are 2.04% of our 10 year goal of $431,557.94 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC 06
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 

Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $188,305.99 to $216,906.24 last month.

In 2023 we planned on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading week 06
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.

 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 4.05% monthly ROI in June 2023, totaling a 37.69% ROI YTD. We plan to exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks. But as of today, we may not be able to achieve that goal as we use a lot of income for repairs of trades that got inn trouble during 2022 bear market. Although, we are slowly crawling out of the hole, our performance may suffer this year.

Our entire account is still down -26.49% from when the bear market started. However, in 2023 our account is up 23.56% YTD. During 2022 bear market it became apparent that although I had a lot of cash savings, I didn’t have enough. So my goal for the rest of the year will be accumulating cash. The market is again in an overbought territory so I will not be making new purchases, rather, I will be saving cash for the next crash.

Our trading averaged $4,832.83 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $57,994.00 in trading options in 2023. As of today, we have made $28,997.00 in trading options. This is below our projected goal. Based on the goal, we should average $5,834 options income per month. But I hope, as the year progresses, we can increase options income to our goal.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq 04
 

The drawdown of our account is highly discouraging, but it started improving. I am not selling any stock positions, and I will be buying back those I sold to release our Buying Power. On top of that, I will be buying more dividend-paying shares as much as possible.

 

Account Stocks holding

 

TW Account holdings 06
 

Last month, S&P 500 grew 54.03% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 23.77%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 grew 21.30% and our portfolio 14.29%. We are underperforming market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings adjusted by options premiums.

 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 

TW Account holdings Growth YTD
 

Our stock holdings are underperforming the market. Hopefully, this trend will improve, and we will do better than S&P 500.

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 7.69% of that goal.

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 43.96% of that goal.

Our 2023 year goal is to grow this account to a $96,532.51, and today we accomplished 79.69% of this goal.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 

TW Options Trading Income 06
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income 06

 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends 06
 

We planned to make $8,000.00 in dividend income in 2023. As of today, we received $4,002.24. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $8,795.99 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $733.00, and our current monthly dividend income is $333.52.

 
TW Received vs Future monthly Dividends 06

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button, so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 




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Posted by Martin June 14, 2023
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Technical view: The AES Corporation (AES)


Technical view
 

AES is in stage #4. The stock reversed sharply, and it is now trading at levels last seen in August 2022. And one would wonder what has happened. In the previous months the stock was rallying hard and reached its previous all-time high just to reverse and drop like a rock. One reason could be that the market participants expected a weak Q1 and started selling. Utilities didn’t perform well, so the selling might be justified. But given the current valuation, this may offer as good opportunity to buy.

 
Technical view weekly
 

For years, since 2014 AES revenue was declining but after 2020 the company started seeing reversal in the trend and the revenue was going up. Even in Q1 2023 revenue was up. If this trend continues, this should help to prop the stock higher. After the recent selling, we may see a reversal:

 
Technical view weekly
 

The revenue is now growing at 13% annual and 3.4% 5-year average. That is not bad. Free cash flow of the company is growing at 120% 2-year average thought he last few quarters were declining:

 
Technical view weekly
 

Earnings are bad and the company seems to be losing money at 26% 5-year average:

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company has a large debt and very little cash on hand to cover it, so they have to be issuing new debt and refinance. Just recently they announced a new offering of senior notes worth $900 million to possibly finance the debt. Given the debt and declining EPS could be a reason for Wall Street dumping the stock:

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company pays a dividend of 0.66 per share (3.21% yield) and increases it regularly at 5% 5-year average (5.08% annual rate).

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company was diluting investors until 2010 when they started buybacks and since 2015 the amount of shares outstanding remains at the same level with some irregular issuances and buybacks down the road:

 
Technical view weekly
 

Fundamentally, the stock is trading below its current fair value and offers great valuation for 2025. If the EPS growth continues as expected, buying at the current price offers a good opportunity. The operating earnings are still expected to grow, and the stock may follow, though in the past, it was always trading at a discount. The stock’s growth is mediocre and barely beats the index. I buy this stock in my portfolio for dividend income.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Technical view weekly
 

The stock is now AGGRESSIVE BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Sunday, June 10th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin June 12, 2023
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Bad breath bad but improving


Last week the markets rallied as I expected but many investors were pointing out that this rally is fake, bear market bounce, and that only a few big tech companies participate in this rally and thus the market is in fact doomed. And they may be somewhat correct but only in one fact – the market is propped by a few big techs only and the rest lags. The best way to view this is to look at the market’s breath (the ratio between advancing and declining stocks). As the chart below shows, the market was rallying last week moving higher but market breath is actually going down indicating that most of the stock are declining and only a few are going up.

 
market breath deteriorating
 

And that same experience could be happening to your portfolio, too. The market is up 30% this year but your portfolio lags. Mine does. My market indicator shows the index to be up 15.88% while my portfolio is up 8.66% only. Why is that? I do everything I can, and I hope that “everything I can” is the right thing to do. I invest in high quality stocks, reinvest the dividends and on top of that, I sell covered calls and options to generate further income. Yet my portfolio lags. Why?

 
portfolio vs SPX
 

The answer is simple, my stocks do not participate in the rally, and I do not own all the darlings that push this market up. Yes, I do own some shares of Microsoft, Apple, and Google, but not enough to prop my portfolio in the same way they prop the index. We can see this when we look at equal weighted SPX index and compare it with SPX:

 
equal weighted market
cap weighted market
 

And yes, we must admit that the equal weighted index is going nowhere while SPX (the bottom picture) is reaching a new high in the same period. And that can be concerning. A lot!
But how concerning is it? Well, the problem is that many investors that claim to be long term investors are sitting in cash and waiting for a better tomorrow instead of being invested. The amount of bearishness is still extremely high, higher than it was in 2008-2009. But it is changing although that change is subtle and not as obvious as one would think. But all we need is perspective. If we step out and look at the breadth from a longer perspective, we start seeing some improvement:

 
SPX breath
 

As we can see from the chart above, the market breadth is actually making new all time high! Of course, it still may all change. Bad news from the FED, bad CPI report next week, or raging inflation can change it all right away. But it hasn’t changed yet. In fact, it is telling me that more and more of the laggards are coming to participate in the market and as more of them do so, more people will realize that sitting on the sidelines was stupid and these same people will once again become the so called “long-term investors” (until the next bear market).
This dominance of a handful stocks leading this new bull market may end soon as we start seeing the rally slowly spreading into the industrial, aerospace, financial, energy, and material sectors. This can help this rally even more as broader market starts participating and more investors will feel the FOMO and make this bull more sustainable.

 
 




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Posted by Martin June 10, 2023
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April-May 2023 $100 Challenge account review, entering in 3rd year of the program


Our “Challenge account” program finished the second year and we are entering the third year of growing the account from $100 to $75,000. These first two years were extremely challenging. We started the program at the end of 2021 when all was good and great. But then, in 2022 the bear market hit and our program got hit too. But that is the part of investing. We will see years when the markets will not cooperate and we will see drawdowns. We had bullish trades open and when the bear market hit, we had to close them for a loss. It also will be happening. And we have to be prepared for it and accept it as normal.

We kept trading and buying dividend stocks. And our account started recovering sharply. The charts below show that although we are still under water, the balance started improving significantly. We are almost break even. If the trend continues, we will be able to surpass and grow our account above the projected goal.

This program is for subscribers only and we send our trade signals and newsletters every week. As the market improves, I expect more trading to happen unlike during the bear markets when we go mostly dormant and preserve the capital.

 

Accumulation phase

 
The account is still underperforming our goal but started improving again. We are investing in stocks of our interest and building equity positions. We also started selling Iron Condors and spreads.

 

April-May 2023 Challenge account review

 

MONTH GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
March 2022: $1,130.00 $301.74
April 2022: $1,233.00 $350.56
May 2022: $1,336.00 $428.82
June 2022: $1,439.00 $459.70
July 2022: $1,542.00 $641.27
August 2022: $1,645.00 $653.32
September 2022: $1,748.00 $617.92
October 2022: $1,851.00 $829.46
November 2022: $1,954.00 $1,003.01
December 2022: $2,057.00 $1,152.65
January 2023: $2,160.00 $1,221.22
February 2023: $2,263.00 $1,286.04
March 2023: $2,366.00 $1,392.45
April 2023: $2,469.00 $1,461.53
May 2023: $2,572.00 $1,779.13

 

$100 Challenge account review

 
From the chart above, the red dot (line) indicates the current account value, compared to the blue line (plan). Our account is underperforming our goal. But it started improving and going up again. We will keep buying assets and monetize them once we accumulate enough shares.
 

April-May 2023 Overall Challenge account review

 
The chart below indicates our account value compared to the overall goal and plans to grow the $100 investment into a $75,000 portfolio. As of today, we are still at the beginning of our journey.

YEAR CONTRIBUTIONS $$ GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
Year 0: $100.00 $100.00 $100.00
Year 1: $1,300.00 $1,336.00 $459.70
Year 2: $2,500.00 $3,016.96 $1,779.13
Year 3: $3,700.00 $5,303.07  
Year 4: $4,900.00 $8,412.17  
Year 5: $6,100.00 $12,640.55  
Year 6: $7,300.00 $18,391.15  
Year 7: $8,500.00 $26,211.96  
Year 8: $9,700.00 $36,848.27  
Year 9: $10,900.00 $51,313.64  
Year 10: $12,100.00 $70,986.56  

 

$100 Challenge account review goal

 

April-May 2023 Challenge account Income

 

Total Invested in Stocks $1,283.90
Stocks Unrealized Profit $0.15
Stocks Realized Profit -$57.18
Strangles Income -$1,316.00
Spreads Income $254.00
Dividends Income $62.91
Deposits Total (lifetime) $2,500.00
Cash $341.38
Net-Liq $1,779.13

 

If you want to see what investments we take and what trades and strategies we will use to grow this small account, join our program today and grow your money. We engage in safe investments, select strategies to maximize winning trades and grow our portfolio. And you can do it too, today! We do not provide quick rich promises, gambling, or reckless strategies. We want our portfolio to grow steadily and preserve our capital while maximizing returns.
 

As a member, you will have access to the following features:
 

 

 




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Posted by Martin June 07, 2023
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Technical view: SNOWFLAKE Inc. (SNOW)


Technical view
 

Snowflake is in stage #1. The company reported earnings. The report was a 92% surprise (revenue was 2% surprise) but they provided guidance which Wall Street didn’t like. The stock dropped hard a week ago and all the Wall Street analysts started their piss contest on downgrading the stock. But last week, the stock rallied hard erasing all previous losses. I still think this company is unique providing an interesting solution to the cloud service and over time, it will be a big player on the market, similar to AWS, but better.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company’s revenue is constantly growing at a nice pace of 48% of annual growth (65% two year’s growth). Looking at the consistent revenue growth, one would assume Wall Street would appreciate it. Apparently not.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company’s free cash flow also improved and turned positive. Now it grows at 65% annual rate. If this trend continues in the near future, SNOW will become a cash cow.

 
Technical view weekly
 

EPS is still negative but growing at 32% annual growth.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company has no (or negligible) debt and plenty of cash on hand:

 
Technical view weekly
 

SNOW shares outstanding were increasing at 3% annual rate diluting investors slightly. The two-year dilution was at a 5.5% rate. At this rate and stage of the business (the company is still too young), I do not think this is a big issue (compare it to Amazon in its infancy; they were diluting like crazy, and Wall Street went nuts about it).

 
Technical view weekly
 

With relatively impressive numbers, why is SNOW falling and struggling? The devil is in details. And SNOW’s growth may not seem as impressive when taking it under the microscope and when viewed next to recently reported growth rates. In the second, third, and fourth quarter of fiscal 2023 (the three quarters leading up to Snowflake’s most recently reported quarter), Snowflake’s product revenue growth rates were 84%, 83%, and 67%, respectively. The company’s 50% growth rate in its first quarter of fiscal 2024, therefore, marked a big step down. If this rapid deceleration in Snowflake’s growth continues, it could become extremely difficult to justify the company’s valuation. Add to it a cut to the full-year guidance and you will see why the stock crashed initially. But this is a typical behavior in the bear market, its recovery, and slowing economic cycle (which is also slowly turning back up, though).

In the recent conference call, a JP Morgan analyst asked if Amazon’s AWS can be a proxy to SNOW’s growth. SNOW’s CEO responded: “Yes. Well, we think that because Amazon is such a large percentage of our overall deployments that they are a good proxy. We just know from talking to them that what they experience, we experience as well… so the answer, generally speaking, is yes, we will see that. Microsoft is smaller so they are not as predictive or our experience as AWS would be.”

This gives a good guidance to what SNOW may see. And AMZN AWS growth was impressive but slowed too (the growth in 2021 was at 31%, 20% in Q1). So, it is slowing too and thus SNOW will be slowing as well. But is this something we should be worried about? As long-term investors, no. This is a typical economic cycle of slower growth. It will last a few months and then the cycle will turn around and grow faster again. But we will be buying during these slowdowns when companies are hated (namely tech stocks when the Wall Street predicts their ultimate end and bankruptcy-like, catastrophic future) and reap the gains when the cycle turns around and the short-sighted Wall Street starts chasing these stocks again.

On a fundamental basis, the stock is significantly overvalued, but it will catch up once the company matures over time. The stock fundamentals are impressive, but the stock is being punished by slowing growth and possibly high stock compensation that trumps all other otherwise outstanding metrics. I am still a believer in this company.
The stock is trending sideways, possibly creating a double bottom. It is trending in a box, and it may now bounce up to a $160-ish level. Let’s see if and when the stock successfully breaks above the sideways pattern.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Technical view weekly
 

The stock is now MODERATE BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Sunday, June 4th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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