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Posted by Martin November 12, 2022
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11.11.22 – FRIDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Many investors on social media expected the market to sell off today as investors would take profits before the weekend. But I didn’t expect that. Many investors were very bearish, and the 6% rally on Thursday was too strong for them to stay in their short positions. They got squeezed and had to get out. That fueled the market further up. Today, we saw the momentum of the short squeeze. But that doesn’t mean the battle is over. We are approaching the expected resistance at 200-day MA, where the bears may step back in and short the market here. The only thing that can destroy them is the FED easing their tightening. I think we will see this rally continue to $4,100 or higher in the coming year-end rally.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 11, 2022
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11.10.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Almost a 6% gain today is impressive! All because a CPI report was a bit better than expected, investors are now melting up. Everything they sold yesterday was bought back today. And since VIX is in contango (quite sharp), I expect this to continue tomorrow, and we will see another up day. We are seeing a typical short squeeze that may gain momentum now. The path to $4,100 is still open.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 10, 2022
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11.09.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets continued showing weakness – first because of election expectations and now selling ahead of the CPI report coming tomorrow at 7:30 CT. And that can shake out the market significantly depending on the report. Given that the VIX is still in contango and pretty much unchanged from yesterday, it may mean that the investors are either fully hedged or not worried. The expected move of the market (SPX) for tomorrow is at $77+/-, and the week (8 days) expected move is at $122 +/-. That tells us that the market may move a lot tomorrow. If the CPI comes in good, expect up to 2% move in either direction.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 09, 2022
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11.08.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets are recovering from Powell’s last week crash, but the trend is weakening daily. The VIX is still in contango but flattening. Will the election results be able to save the trend? So far, the weakness is dominant, and I expect the markets to flip lower.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 04, 2022
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11.03.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Selling continued today as market participants continued freaking out about FED and now increased the chance of entering a recession. There is nothing we can do about it but patiently wait for this to pass. It will pass someday. The only concern I have is that the FED kept aggressively raising interest rates, but it has had no impact on inflation so far, and their solution is raising the interest rates more. Like now the rates do nothing, raising them more will do something? With this dynamic, the economy will break, people will lose jobs, houses, and the US and the world will go into a deep and painful recession. We can only hope this will not be the case. The VIX is still in contango, this selling may pass, and we may still see the end-of-the-year rally.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 03, 2022
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11.02.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The FED’s chair Powell announced another rate hike by 0.75 points but then commented that it is too early to talk about a rate pause or slow down. I think it is too late, as the economy is already tipping over into a free fall that the FED will not be able to stop. There is a high chance that Powell will overtighten the economy. The markets didn’t like it and sold off more than 2.5%. However, the VIX is still in contango, which means traders are not taking cover, and the market may reverse and rally again. We will still go to 200-day MA, although it will be a bumpy road. However, this still may change any day.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 02, 2022
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11.01.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The weakness in the market continued in expectation of the FED’s policy. The Vix futures are in contango, indicating bullish expectations. If the FED provides its policy of slowing down its QT after the hike this week, the market may rally an additional 10% from now and reach the 4,239 level if this plays out. I guess we will find out tomorrow. Expect a quite volatile market.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 01, 2022
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Technical view: Airbnb (ABNB)


Airbnb reported earnings, and the stock crashed by more than 7% after-hours. In this technical view, we take a look at what happened:
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Airbnb reported Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.79 actual versus $1.53 expected = BEAT
 

Revenue: $2.88 actual billion versus $2.83 billion expected = BEAT
 

Nights and Experiences Booked: 99.7 million versus 99.9 million expected = MISS
 

Airbnb said that Q3 2022 was its “most profitable quarter ever.”
 

The company guided 4Q revenue between 1.8 billion and 1.88 billion. Analysts expected 1.86 billion. That is in the middle of the guidance. Yet Wall Street sold off. What am I missing? I think I am missing nothing. Wall Street dudes are idiots. And that makes this company a buy in my book:
 

Technical view
 

ABNB is in stage #1. The stock continued its sideways move and refused to participate in last week’s rally. It has a resistance at $129 that the stock needs to clear before moving higher. The tech selloff may have impacted the stock and may resume its uptrend. It is still attempting to morph into stage #2. It is best seen on the weekly chart. If the market resumes a new bull market, the stock will continue higher too. At the current levels, it is a good opportunity to buy (but slowly, do not commit all your money). However, before buying, I recommend waiting for the company to report earnings. If they disappoint, the stock may drop lower.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is overvalued based on the company’s fundamental data. But this is a tech company with a good business model that competes strongly with the hotel industry. And it will trade with a premium to the stock price.
The chart below indicates the price compared to the company’s fundamental data. The orange indicates the fair value dashed line. The stock trades way above that line.
The trend is still weak but attempting to move higher. We invest when everyone panics, and this is the case.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now BUY
 

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Posted by Martin November 01, 2022
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10.31.22 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Today, we saw a retreat from the strong rally on Friday. It could be the beginning of a new selling or just gains consolidation. Given that the VIX futures structure is still in contango, I would vote for a pause in the uptrend. We are still going to the 200-day MA in the near future. However, the FED is announcing new rates this week and it may change the entire story. They still can kill the rally.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin October 30, 2022
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2022 Week 43 investing and trading report


Last week was a successful trading and investing week. We traded many new options trades and opened new stock positions, trying to take advantage of the selloff in those stocks. I think, long term, these will pay off well.
 

Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is improving, allowing us to accumulate more shares:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 43
 

Our trading delivered +$1,403.00 premiums last week, ending October 2022 at +$4,049.00 (+6.47%) options income. Our net-liq value increased by +9.23% to $62,592.17 value. That is still a terrible result. Our overall account is now down -40.19% YTD.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $62,592.17 +$5,779.74 +9.23%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$1,403.00    
01 January 2022 Options: +$8,885.00 +8.36%  
02 February 2022 Options: +$10,009.00 +10.34%  
03 March 2022 Options: -$1,662.00 -1.47%  
04 April 2022 Options: +$1,047.00 +1.19%  
05 May 2022 Options: +$8,604.00 +11.32%  
06 June 2022 Options: +$9,691.00 +13.73%  
07 July 2022 Options: +$8,717.00 +11.39%  
08 August 2022 Options: +$7,987.00 +12.15%  
09 September 2022 Options: +$2,997.00 +5.76%  
10 October 2022 Options: +$4,049.00 +0.10%  
Options Premiums YTD: $60,324.00 +96.38%  
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: $48.15    
01 January 2022 Dividends: $303.38    
02 February 2022 Dividends: $732.81    
03 March 2022 Dividends: $393.74    
04 April 2022 Dividends: $337.31    
05 May 2022 Dividends: $343.99    
06 June 2022 Dividends: $445.80    
07 July 2022 Dividends: $367.66    
08 August 2022 Dividends: $683.58    
09 September 2022 Dividends: $555.20    
10 October 2022 Dividends: $320.38    
Dividends YTD: $4,483.85    
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $188,722.75 +$9,122.05 +5.08%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.60%    
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 15.73%    
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $140,737.27 68.54%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $33,675,010.51 16,399.37%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $5,651,559,506.72 2,752,248.96%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $10,747,008,964,248.40 5,233,678,290.21%  
Portfolio Alpha: 91.30%    
Sharpe Ratio: 7.32 EXCELLENT  
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.45    
CAGR: 274.03%    
AROC: 61.44%    
TROC: 7.15%    
Our 2022 Goal
2022 Dividend Goal: $4,800.00 93.41% In Progress
2022 Portfolio Value Goal: $151,638.03 41.28% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 35.77% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 6.26% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 
Last week we have received $48.15 in dividends bringing our October’s dividend income at $320.38.


Last week, we bought these dividend growth stocks:

 
– 20 shares of WBA @ $34.40
 
I will be accumulating WBA shares until I reach 100 shares. As of today, I own 50 shares.

 
– 5 shares of MSFT @ $248.73
 
I will be accumulating MSFT shares until I reach 100 shares. As of today, I own 35 shares.

 
– 2 shares of MAIN @ $35.89
 
I will be accumulating MAIN shares until I reach 100 shares. As of today, I own 12 shares.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity week 43
 

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout week 43

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 


Last week, we bought the following growth stocks and funds:
 

  • 8 shares of GOOGL @ $94.70
     
    When everyone is selling and predicting the end of Google, it is time to buy. I will be accumulating until I reach 100 shares. As of today, I own 10 shares.

 
– 10 shares of AMZN @ $120.17
 
I started seeing people on social media saying that Amazon is worthless and possibly going bankrupt. This was a reminiscence of 2014 when people said the same thing when Amazon traded at $360 a share. Fast forward to today, and the stock was at $3,000 a share (pre-split price). So, when people say this, it is time to accumulate the stock.
 

I also sold all shares of PayPal (PYPL) as I think the company will suffer some set back soon due to their policy change.
 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week options trading delivered a gain of +$1,403.00 making our October options income +$4,049.00.

 

We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered $645.00 gain.


 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 
We received $48.15 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.60% at $62,592.17 market value.

 
Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $140,737.27, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $6,890.51 annual dividend income ($574.21 monthly income). We are 4.90% of our 10 year goal of $140,737.27 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC week 42
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 
Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $179,600.69 to $188,722.75 last week.

In 2022 we plan on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading week 43
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.
 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a +6.47% monthly ROI in October 2022, totaling a 96.38% ROI YTD. If our options income stays at this level by the end of the year, we will exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -40.19%.
 

Our options trading averaged $6,032.40 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $72,388.80 in trading options in 2022. As of today, we have made $60,324.00 trading options.
 

Old SPX trades repair

 

We traded our SPX put credit spread strategy, which you will be able to review in my next report. The SPX strategy has held well so far, and our signals kept us from opening new aggressive trades.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq week 43

This drawdown of our account is extremely discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. I am not selling any stock positions despite the losses. I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.
 

Account Stocks holding

 
TW Account holdings week 43
 

Last week, S&P 500 grew 34.86% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 11.51%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 fell -29.91% and our portfolio -18.27%. We are outperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.
 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 
TW Account holdings Growth YTD
 

Our stock holdings are starting to outperform the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.
 

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.26% of that goal.
 

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 35.77% of that goal.
 

Our 2022 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 41.28% of this goal.

I am afraid our account is no longer on track to accomplish our 2022 year goal. We may accomplish our dividend and options income goals, but our account balance (Net-Liq) will be down significantly. Of course, if the market finally rallies by the end of the year, it may all change, but if not, we will fail.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 
TW Options Trading Income week 43
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income week 43
 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends week 43
 

We plan to make $4,800.00 in dividend income in 2022. As of today, we received $4,483.85. This is in line with our projected dividend 2022 goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $6,890.51 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $574.21, and our current monthly dividend income is $373.65.
 

TW Received vs Future Dividends week 43

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 
 




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