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Posted by Martin November 16, 2022
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11.15.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The market, again, started on a very strong note in the morning, rallying over 1% (at some point, even 1.5%), but then, but the end of the day, it again lost steam and paired almost all gain. As you can see, we are at the 200-day MA, and bears are trying to short the market here. Today candle is a shooting star (though not bearish), and that can push the market lower. The VIX is in strong contango, so the odds are bullish, but we may have a hard time breaking the resistance at 200-day MA. DOW broke the 200-day MA, so we may see SPX follow. As of now, it is a mixed bag. We may still be heading higher by the end of the year.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 16, 2022
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Technical view: Apple (APPL)


Technical view
 

AAPL morphed into stage #1. After it reported stellar earnings, it continued its #2 rally, but Jay Powell killed it with his inflation speech. The stock crashed in three days. But the more this stock goes lower as people panic, the more I want to buy it. People keep saying that this was the end of Apple, but Apple keeps defying them every time. The weekly chart also shows that the stock holds the key support, bouncing on it, and if the inflation drops and FED stops raising rates, this stock will go higher, and a few years later, you will be looking back and asking yourself why you didn’t buy today.

 
Technical view
 

Apple is no longer an overvalued company. It is trading at the normal P/E valuation, but the expected fair value is now way above the stock price. The fair value by 2025 is now at $258.62 a share and that gives a potential for 19.4% annualized growth.

 
Technical view
 

The stock is now AGGRESSIVE BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, November 12th, 2022. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin November 15, 2022
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11.14.22 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The market started in red but then rallied hard; by midday, it was in green. I hoped for a slightly down day today, and it seemed it wouldn’t be happening. The market looked like it would end on another green day. But 30 minutes before the end of the session, it suddenly snapped and literally collapsed. There is no point speculating why it happened. My only suggestion could be that investors took profits off the table because tomorrow before the market opens, we will have Producer Price Index data reported. If that comes out bad, the profits could evaporate. The VIX futures are still very positive, so the rally will continue if the PPI is good. If it comes out bad, we may see a pullback. But even if a pullback comes in, it will probably be bought, and the index will end in green again.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 13, 2022
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2022 Week 45 investing and trading report


I could not report my investing and trading from a week ago because of my travels. I didn’t make many new trades that week, but the last week I started opening new ones and adjusting existing ones. These adjustments were mostly for debit but improved the trades significantly.
 

Our NetLiq-cash-buying power ratio is improving, allowing us to accumulate more shares:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 45
 

Our trading delivered -$2,986.00 premiums last week, ending November 2022 at -$2,986.00 (-4.52%) options income. Our net-liq value increased by +5.17% to $66,001.53 value. That is still a terrible result. Our overall account is now down -36.93% YTD.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $66,001.53 +$3,409.36 +5.17%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: -$2,986.00    
01 January 2022 Options: +$8,885.00 +8.36%  
02 February 2022 Options: +$10,009.00 +10.34%  
03 March 2022 Options: -$1,662.00 -1.47%  
04 April 2022 Options: +$1,047.00 +1.19%  
05 May 2022 Options: +$8,604.00 +11.32%  
06 June 2022 Options: +$9,691.00 +13.73%  
07 July 2022 Options: +$8,717.00 +11.39%  
08 August 2022 Options: +$7,987.00 +12.15%  
09 September 2022 Options: +$2,997.00 +5.76%  
10 October 2022 Options: +$3,979.00 +6.36%  
11 November 2022 Options: -$2,986.00 -4.52%  
Options Premiums YTD: $57,268.00 +86.77%  
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: $107.10    
01 January 2022 Dividends: $303.38    
02 February 2022 Dividends: $732.81    
03 March 2022 Dividends: $393.74    
04 April 2022 Dividends: $337.31    
05 May 2022 Dividends: $343.99    
06 June 2022 Dividends: $445.80    
07 July 2022 Dividends: $367.66    
08 August 2022 Dividends: $683.58    
09 September 2022 Dividends: $555.20    
10 October 2022 Dividends: $359.89    
11 November 2022 Dividends: $107.10    
Dividends YTD: $4,630.46    
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $191,862.25 +$3,139.50 +1.66%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 5.44%    
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 15.73%    
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $131,716.60 64.57%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $28,588,366.74 14,015.12%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $4,395,237,135.34 2,154,714.21%  
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $7,472,401,675,264.82 3,663,258,558.58%  
Portfolio Alpha: 81.68%    
Sharpe Ratio: 5.80 EXCELLENT  
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.45    
CAGR: 274.28%    
AROC: 86.96%    
TROC: 9.27%    
Our 2022 Goal
2022 Dividend Goal: $4,800.00 96.47% In Progress
2022 Portfolio Value Goal: $151,638.03 43.53% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 37.72% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 6.60% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 
Last week we have received $107.10 in dividends bringing our November’s dividend income at $107.10.

Last week, we did not purchase any dividend stock.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity week 45
 

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout week 45

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week, we purchased no growth stocks.

 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

Last week options trading delivered a loss of -$2,986.00 making our November options income -$2,986.00.

 

We were actively trading our SPX strategy that delivered -$313.00 loss.


 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 
We received $107.10 in dividends last week. Our portfolio currently yields 5.44% at $66,001.53 market value.

 
Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $131,716.60, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $6,890.51 annual dividend income ($574.21 monthly income). We are 5.23% of our 10 year goal of $131,716.60 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC week 45
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 
Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value increased from $188,722.75 to $191,862.25 last week.

In 2022 we plan on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading week 45
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.
 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a -4.52% monthly ROI in November 2022, totaling a 86.77% ROI YTD. If our options income stays at this level by the end of the year, we will exceed our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -36.93%.
 

Our options trading averaged $5,206.18 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $62,474.18 in trading options in 2022. As of today, we have made $57,268.00 trading options.
 

Old SPX trades repair

 

We traded our SPX put credit spread strategy, which you will be able to review in my next report. The SPX strategy has held well so far, and our signals kept us from opening new aggressive trades.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq week 45

This drawdown of our account is extremely discouraging. It’s like all previous gains were all wiped out. But this is just a temporary drawdown. I am not selling any stock positions despite the losses. I will keep buying more shares if possible. I also have losses in my options trades. I am rolling those trades to keep them alive and adjusting them slowly, one by one, until they expire as winners. Then, this terribly-looking chart improves. It will be a long process to get back up, but I am determined.
 

Account Stocks holding

 
TW Account holdings week 43
 

Last week, S&P 500 grew 38.03% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 14.31%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 fell -26.73% and our portfolio -15.46%. We are outperforming the market.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings only.
 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 
TW Account holdings Growth YTD
 

Our stock holdings are starting to outperform the market. Hopefully, this trend will stay, and we will constantly do better than S&P 500.
 

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 6.60% of that goal.
 

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 37.72% of that goal.
 

Our 2022 year goal is to grow this account to a $151,638.03, and today we accomplished 43.53% of this goal.

I am afraid our account is no longer on track to accomplish our 2022 year goal. We may accomplish our dividend and options income goals, but our account balance (Net-Liq) will be down significantly. Of course, if the market finally rallies by the end of the year, it may all change, but if not, we will fail.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 
TW Options Trading Income week 45
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income week 45
 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends week 45
 

We plan to make $4,800.00 in dividend income in 2022. As of today, we received $4,630.46. This is in line with our projected dividend 2022 goal. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $6,890.51 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $574.21, and our current monthly dividend income is $385.87.
 

TW Received vs Future Dividends week 45

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 
 




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Posted by Martin November 13, 2022
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2022 SPX put credit spreads trading review – week 45


I skipped the report while traveling a week ago (week 44). Last week, I traded little, only adjusting a few SPX trades that needed our attention. Our goal is to be able to let those trades expire OTM. Other trades offset all rolls we did, yet we ended negative last week.
 

Our trades delivered a -$313.00 loss. Our account weekly trading is down by -0.82% while SPX gained 2.36%.
 

Our SPX account is up +947.30% since the beginning of this program, and we have $39,954 in unrealized gains.

 

Initial SPX trade set ups

 

I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS strategy per week. Today, the account is up at $37,702.95. However, due to the recent bear market, many trades are still open, and the funds are tied to those open trades. The trades need to expire or be closed for a profit to release the funds.
 

Our SPX strategy is designed as directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators (primarily based on moving averages and volume profiles) and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend-following strategy.” We open the trade if we have a bullish signal and a bullish trend. If we do not have a signal, we stay away. We also trade credit call spreads when we have bearish signals. In a choppy market, we stay away from or trade very short expirations (usually 1 or 2 days or up to 7 days), but the trading is muted as we need a trending market. Unfortunately, today, we do not have a trending market (yes, overall, it is a down-trending market, but for short-term trades, it is choppy and not trending).
 

Here you can see all our trades:

 
SPX PCS account value
Click on the picture above to see the entire list.
 

Last week trading

 

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +947.30% gain last week.
 

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021): $3,600.00
Last week beginning value: $38,015.95
Last week ending value: $37,702.95 (-0.82%; total: +947.30%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy: $19,995
Current capital at risk: -$9,954
Unrealized Gain: $39,954 (-401.39%)
Realized Gain: -$5,875 (59.02%)
Total Gain: $34,079 (-342.36%)
Win Ratio: 56%
Average Winner: $317
Average Loser: $500

 

SPX PCS account value
SPX PCS account value
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX
SPX PCS account vs SPX index
 

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

 

 

Note, if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can subscribe to one level only and then send us an email that you want to be added to other levels.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or comment in the comments section. Thank you!

 
 




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Posted by Martin November 12, 2022
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11.11.22 – FRIDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Many investors on social media expected the market to sell off today as investors would take profits before the weekend. But I didn’t expect that. Many investors were very bearish, and the 6% rally on Thursday was too strong for them to stay in their short positions. They got squeezed and had to get out. That fueled the market further up. Today, we saw the momentum of the short squeeze. But that doesn’t mean the battle is over. We are approaching the expected resistance at 200-day MA, where the bears may step back in and short the market here. The only thing that can destroy them is the FED easing their tightening. I think we will see this rally continue to $4,100 or higher in the coming year-end rally.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 11, 2022
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11.10.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Almost a 6% gain today is impressive! All because a CPI report was a bit better than expected, investors are now melting up. Everything they sold yesterday was bought back today. And since VIX is in contango (quite sharp), I expect this to continue tomorrow, and we will see another up day. We are seeing a typical short squeeze that may gain momentum now. The path to $4,100 is still open.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 10, 2022
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11.09.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets continued showing weakness – first because of election expectations and now selling ahead of the CPI report coming tomorrow at 7:30 CT. And that can shake out the market significantly depending on the report. Given that the VIX is still in contango and pretty much unchanged from yesterday, it may mean that the investors are either fully hedged or not worried. The expected move of the market (SPX) for tomorrow is at $77+/-, and the week (8 days) expected move is at $122 +/-. That tells us that the market may move a lot tomorrow. If the CPI comes in good, expect up to 2% move in either direction.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 09, 2022
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11.08.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets are recovering from Powell’s last week crash, but the trend is weakening daily. The VIX is still in contango but flattening. Will the election results be able to save the trend? So far, the weakness is dominant, and I expect the markets to flip lower.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin November 04, 2022
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11.03.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Selling continued today as market participants continued freaking out about FED and now increased the chance of entering a recession. There is nothing we can do about it but patiently wait for this to pass. It will pass someday. The only concern I have is that the FED kept aggressively raising interest rates, but it has had no impact on inflation so far, and their solution is raising the interest rates more. Like now the rates do nothing, raising them more will do something? With this dynamic, the economy will break, people will lose jobs, houses, and the US and the world will go into a deep and painful recession. We can only hope this will not be the case. The VIX is still in contango, this selling may pass, and we may still see the end-of-the-year rally.

 
Market Outlook
 

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