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Archive for October, 2009

Posted by MartZee October 29, 2009

Medifast bought back

Medifast (MED) beats expectations on earnings. The consensus estimate was 19 c per share, MED reported 23 c per share. So I bought MED back at the market opening:

10/29/2009    09:30:29    Bought  8  MED  @  20.79

Posted by MartZee October 28, 2009

Medifast (MED) reporting earnings

Medifast (MED) reporting earnings

Medifast (MED) is going to report earnings tomorrow morning prior the market opening. The stock has been dumped by investors recently (maybe they were unloading prior reporting earnings) so I was stopped out. Since the peak on October 21, 2009 the stock lost almost 21%. When looking at the after hours trading, it seems the stock will shoot up tomorrow morning:

Medifast - MarketWatch.com

I consider this stock as good one and if it happens I am buying back. Let’s wait for tomorrow morning…

Visa beats expectations

Visa beats expectations
OCT27 Visa (V) did better than expected, which makes me laugh. Not because I might be making more money holding this stock, but because I still have on my mind all those doomsday analysts predictions, analysts and traders overreacting and freaking about earnings and company’s sustainability. A few days ago, Visa was falling for no particular reason, or maybe there was a reason, but I couldn’t find it, and even after the company reported better than expected results, the stock went through a sell off at the very end of the trading day just to reverse and shoot up in after hours trading. Sometimes, I really wish to know what is behind the scene, what moves the crowd to sell the stock in one minute and buy it back in the second one.

Here is what happened:


Of course, you never know what will happen in the market. Wall Street is too obsessed with earnings and sometimes pays too much attention to it. However, there is no guarantee, that a stock of a company such as Visa, which posted better than expected result, increased dividends and announced buying back its stocks, will grow. Many times you could see that a stock of a company with great results was falling and a stock of a company with bad results was growing and making new highs.

Maybe, these results, Visa posted despite of all those who were recommending selling it, prove again, that this company has very little to do with credit crunch, so when credit card companies get into a trouble, it doesn’t necessarily mean Visa is in trouble too. People, maybe, do not use credit cards as much as they used to, but they started using debit cards, and just take a look what logo your debit card holds on it. Anytime you use it, Visa gets its share.

It still may not mean anything anyway…

Posted by MartZee October 27, 2009

FUQI sold on stop loss

FUQI was stopped out today, which I expected anyway. The stock doesn’t act as I wanted so I was going to sell it anyway:

10/27/2009    15:11:42    Sold  3  FUQI  @  21.8906

Posted by MartZee October 27, 2009

MED sold on stop loss @ 19.80

Today in the morning MED was sold:

10/27/2009    10:11:28    Sold  6  MED  @  19.80

Posted by MartZee October 27, 2009

Earnings calendar for my holdings

Stocks are heading down for the fifth time in seven sessions today, mostly dragged down by raising dollar and falling oil. Some stocks are also dumped before the companies issue their earnings reports, I think.

OCT27 Visa (V) is expected to report 3Q earnings tomorrow, Tuesday, October 27th and a consensus estimate is $0.72 (+7.46%) per share. Let’s see what would be the result and how the stock will react on it.
OCT29 Medifast (MED) is supposed to report 3Q earnings on Thursday, October 29th and consensus estimate is $0.186 (-7.00%) per share. Maybe I should consider tightening my stop loss order closer, for the case the company misses expectations. I will look at it tomorrow.
NOV2 LJ International Inc (JADE) is supposed to report 3Q earnings on Monday, November 2nd and consensus estimate is $0.04 (+300.00%) per share. I may get rid of MED and FUQI and add more to JADE.
NOV3 Fuqi International Inc (FUQI) is supposed to report 3Q earnings on November 3rd and consensus estimate is $0.441 (-2.00%) per share.

Picks 10/19 – 10/23

New [tag]stock picks[/tag] this week:

[tag]LJ International, Inc.[/tag] (JADE)

Existing & new [tag]holdings[/tag]:

Symbol Qty Last Gain($) Gain(%)
[tag]FUQI[/tag] 3 26.17 -8.49 -9.76
[tag]JADE[/tag] 34 3.58 3.40 2.87
[tag]MED[/tag] 6 23.37 30.19 27.44
[tag]ORS[/tag] 6 0.96 -8.67 -11.88
[tag]RINO[/tag] 4 23.57 3.36 3.70
[tag]V[/tag] 11 74.12 62.49 8.30

Contribution this week: $100

Current [tag]capital exposure[/tag]: -5.27%     Learn more

New positions available to open: 0     Learn more

Starting [tag]account value[/tag] = $1,864.19

Account value = $1,853.54 (without margin)

Buying power = $539.17

[tag]Portfolio Gain/loss[/tag] this week = -0.57%

[tag]Portfolio[/tag] Gain/Loss for OCTOBER 2009 = 4.17%

Portfolio Gain/loss for 2009 = -23.08%

[tag]Annual Return[/tag] (CAGR): -29.41%


The [tag]market[/tag] has been a bit bumpy last week. [tag]Stocks[/tag] were rallying as well as falling down as a rock at the same time. One day stocks shot up on the news of earnings better than expected and a few days later an analyst wrote that these [tag]earnings[/tag] were not such good and sent stocks to 40 minutes [tag]sell off[/tag]. I am surprised how the market is overreacting on such news and opinions of some so called analysts. A young kid without experiences writes his/her analysis and the stocks go to hell. Or are the doomsday predictors, who are predicting the fall since the market started rallying in March, so scared that at any moment when a company missed expectation by a couple of cents or some analysts started saying sell, sell, sell, they started panicking and selling just to start buying back the very next day?

I remember once an analyst (if she is analyst at all, maybe a columnist) Morgan Housel wrote about Visa to be a hot candidate for dumping the stock, because its growth is not sustainable. I wrote about it in my post “Is Visa Affected by delinquency?”. I couldn’t find any reason, why [tag]Visa[/tag] wouldn’t be capable to sustain it’s growth. All I could see that even during bad market we experienced Visa reported positive earnings and during Q2 & Q3 2008 it was even an earnings surprise! How come that at the time when consumers were dumping credit cards, stopped buying, Visa exceeded analysts expectations? This year’s [tag]growth[/tag] is at 28% rate! I understand that if the company doesn’t make money, it should be avoided, but shouldn’t we be looking at what the company does instead of what some so called experts say or think? Visa closed at 69.27 at that day when the column has been posted. Last week closing was at $74.12, 7% higher since the doomsday prediction. If you hold through the correction which followed or bought later back, you would be enjoying great return so far. I did and enjoyed [tag]11% gain[/tag] within 4 months.

I was told by one guy at a MarketWatch discussion board: “Do not seek a logic in the market”. He was right, but still all this surprises me that even experienced traders (as I would expect them to be) are panicking without serious reasons. That makes the market volatile. I do not remember such volatility. Usually stocks corrected within 10% or less, but today this threshold is easily reached or even higher.

Let’s see what following weeks bring us, if the market corrects or will continue higher. This is all we should watch and listen to, not to analysts or columnist publishing their opinions.

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Pump & Dump

ORS held its level for couple days since its huge move on 10/14/2009. Today, almost at the end of the day it went down like a rock on heavy volume. I am expecting being stopped out tomorrow with a loss.

Posted by MartZee October 19, 2009

JADE added

Today morning I opened new positions of JADE:

10/19/2009    09:30:12    Bought  34  JADE  @  3.48

Is the US market heading up tomorrow?

The European stock markets opened strong on Monday morning so we may expect the US markets rise higher too.

By Steve Goldstein (MarketWatch.com)

LONDON — European stocks opened higher on Monday, with every sector rising after two straight weeks of gains and advances for ten out of the last 14 weeks. Movers included National Express (UK:NEX 392.10, +30.00, +8.29%) , which rose 7.9% as Stagecoach (UK:SGC 155.50, -0.60, -0.38%) made a tentative all-stock offer for the U.K. bus and rail operator, and Nestle (CH:NESN 43.80, +0.48, +1.11%) , which advanced 1.8% on an upgrade ahead of the world’s largest food producer’s nine-month sales update on Thursday. The U.K. FTSE 100 rose 0.9% to 5,235.17, the German DAX rose 0.8% to 5,791.13 and the French CAC 40 rose 0.8% to 3,855.20.

I decided to add more risk to my portfolio (my current total risk is 3.69% as of Sunday late night, actually Monday very early morning) and open new position by buying JADE shares.
Tomorrow, when the US markets open, I shall buy 34 shares of this stock at the price around $3.40 per share. I am also looking at other penny stocks with strong earnings such as SIHI and MHJ.