I was traveling the last couple of days and unable to write my regular market outlooks. I am back to the standard routine and here is my view on the market.
The market started trading in a very narrow range on the top of the rally. We see rejection at the 4,150-ish level. The market participants are skittish – freak on, freak off. One day they cheer Powell on his remarks about the “disinflation process” the other day they are again worried about FED. Heck, I am tired of their mood. But if we stay in this range, we should be OK.
Exhaustion is visible on the Ichimoku chart as well. It could be just a slowdown after a strong rally or consolidation of the gains, or it could be the beginning of trouble. Since I do not see any bad news, as of yet, on the wall, I tend to say this is just a consolidation and time to not worry. If it changes, we will change our stance too.
Today, we were supposed to see a recovery at the end of the day but it didn’t happen. But the markets never move the way we want. The forecasting is just a series of trend calculations. It doesn’t and cannot take into account moody investors with their poopy or cheering pants.
So tomorrow? What to expect? Anything. Possibly another zig-zag day. If they will be scared more than usual we may break below 4,100 or resume a rally.
If you want to learn more about our SPX weekly analysis, subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
Leave a Reply