Today, the market was definitely bullish. After an initial rally and pullback, it continued up the entire day. But the VIX is still negative showing that investors do not trust this rally and keep buying hedges. They expect this rally to fail again. But it may be tricky. They may get squeezed and we Continue reading →
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Archive for October, 2022
10.20.22 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
The VIX structure is still in deep backwardation and the market is selling off. Nothing dramatic, but sliding. And there is no improvement. Not even the earnings season which is surprisingly good (the earnings armageddon is not happening) is not able to save the markets. Expect more selling until the VIX improves. However, the Continue reading →
10.19.22 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
On Wednesday, the markets started showing weakness and that was confirmed by the VIX futures as they were still in backwardation. Remember, the first two months of the structure of the future are what matters the most, and the first two months are clearly heading down. This indicates traders (big money) buying protection, hedging Continue reading →
10.18.22 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, the market opened higher but for the entire morning, it was drifting lower. It almost closed the entire opening gap. After that, it traded slightly higher and sideways. The VIX futures term deepened its backwardation indicating that this rally has no legs. Today’s weakness in the price action is confirmed by the Continue reading →
10.17.22 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK
The stock market skyrocketed on Monday again. It gained 2.63% but as you can see in the above VIX structure, the market participants remain bearish and the VIX is still in backwardation. I suspect that today’s rally will fail again unless we see continuation and change in the VIX. Until then, expect this rally Continue reading →
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