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Posted by Martin October 11, 2023
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This dragging market is wearing me out


We had an impressive rally this year, so far. But then the markets stalled on all sorts of old fears – inflation, interest rates, higher for longer, and so on. We lost over 5% in September and October isn’t looking any better.

We are in a recovery mode for sure. Naysayers will keep posting their rants about recession but that is not coming (at least not yet). It will eventually come but not this year and most likely not the next year either (it may come at the end of the next year, but I do not see any fundamental reasons for it). Recession is when people lose jobs, companies stop hiring and their earnings dwindle. But the labor market is strong (which brings fears of pricing pressure and high interest rates) and earnings are holding well and rising again (just look at the most recent Pepsi’s earnings). There are no signs of a recession at all. At least not yet.

The market futures went up in expectations of a PPI report which came in hotter than expected and the last three days strong rally dwindled again. Wednesday’s trading will be weak and we may even close down. But the rally will continue.




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Posted by Martin September 27, 2023
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Technical view: iShares Ultra Short-Term Bond ETF (ICSH)


Technical view
 

ICSH is in stage #1. BlackRock’s ultra short-term bond ETF is not necessarily an investment for dividend growth or capital appreciation. But I think I should mention it here for one specific reason and that is that I use this ETF to park my cash in. For years, I was looking for a stock that can work as a cash account, hold value, and pay decent dividends (or interest). ICSH fulfills this goal. If you look at the chart above, it looks choppy, but if you look at the chart below, you will see that this fund holds value. But don’t get fooled by the choppiness. If you look at the drops, the fund declines by 20 cents only! That is merely a 0.40% drop! Compare it to stocks that can lose 20% just because of a not so good earnings report! During Covid plunge, ICSH lost 2.93%. Many other stocks lost 20% or more. Apple lost 30.3%!
Of course, you may always keep your unused funds in cash, but then they keep sitting in your account doing nothing. I didn’t like it, mainly during low interest rates. Brokers paid 0.002% APY in your cash. And since I use margin for my trading, I need to keep large amounts of cash in reserves. And I didn’t like that these reserves are doing nothing.
So, ICSH does:
 

  • Holds value. The price fluctuation is minimal and acceptable. Today, these fluctuations are lower than the current inflation.
  • It pays dividends. It is not much, only about 0.21 per share, but at current prices it represents 3.80% yield. Not bad for this type of stock!
  • It is cheap. Its expense ratio is 0.08 (compare it to ARK, for example).

 
Technical view weekly
 

The long-term weekly chart may look scary, but the movements you see are only about 0.2% range. It is an acceptable money preserving vehicle.

 
Technical view weekly
 

And when we zoom to 2022 bear market, the fund only lost $0.65 or -1.28%. To me this is perfectly acceptable, and I will keep using this fund as my money storing vehicle with peace of mind that I won’t wake up the next day seeing that the position lost 20% overnight because of bad earnings.

The stock is now BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Sunday, September 24th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 
 




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Posted by Martin September 25, 2023
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August 2023 $100 Challenge account review


August was a horrible month for our Challenge account. We lost a significant net-liq value due to the correction. One part of the losing strike this month was due to REIT stocks which we are accumulating in our portfolio, namely MPW, and these stocks were hammered this year (not just the MPW but almost all REITs are getting slammed). That actually makes them a good opportunity to invest in them. When people are dumping these stocks (usually due to their short-sight), it is always a good opportunity.

Our goal is to not only grow the account but also generate income from dividends and monetizing our positions by selling options around those positions. And we are again on track with this goal and strategy.

It takes patience and stick to the strategy. The markets will not be always favorable to us. Nor FED being always friendly with zero rates policy. One must adjust investing and trading to be inline with the market, but one must not stop investing or you would miss the best time in the market.

 

Accumulation phase

 
The account is still underperforming our goal but the spread between the goal and current value started narrowing fast. We are still investing in stocks of our interest and building equity positions. We also started selling put spreads against indexes to generate income.

 

August 2023 Challenge account review

 

MONTH GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
April 2022: $1,233.00 $350.56
May 2022: $1,336.00 $428.82
June 2022: $1,439.00 $459.70
July 2022: $1,542.00 $641.27
August 2022: $1,645.00 $653.32
September 2022: $1,748.00 $617.92
October 2022: $1,851.00 $829.46
November 2022: $1,954.00 $1,003.01
December 2022: $2,057.00 $1,152.65
January 2023: $2,160.00 $1,221.22
February 2023: $2,263.00 $1,286.04
March 2023: $2,366.00 $1,392.45
April 2023: $2,469.00 $1,461.53
May 2023: $2,572.00 $1,779.13
June 2023: $2,675.00 1,729.60
July 2023: $2,778.00 $2,159.90
August 2023: $2,881.00 $1,576.40

 

$100 Challenge account review

 
From the chart above, the red dot (line) indicates the current account value, compared to the blue line (plan). Our account is underperforming our goal. We will keep buying assets and monetize them once we accumulate enough shares.
 

August 2023 Overall Challenge account review

 
The chart below indicates our account value compared to the overall goal and plans to grow the $100 investment into a $75,000 portfolio. As of today, we are still at the beginning of our journey.

YEAR CONTRIBUTIONS $$ GOAL $$ ACTUAL $$
Year 0: $100.00 $100.00 $100.00
Year 1: $1,300.00 $1,336.00 $459.70
Year 2: $2,500.00 $3,016.96 $1,779.13
Year 3: $3,700.00 $5,303.07 $1,576.40
Year 4: $4,900.00 $8,412.17  
Year 5: $6,100.00 $12,640.55  
Year 6: $7,300.00 $18,391.15  
Year 7: $8,500.00 $26,211.96  
Year 8: $9,700.00 $36,848.27  
Year 9: $10,900.00 $51,313.64  
Year 10: $12,100.00 $70,986.56  

 

$100 Challenge account review goal

 

August 2023 Challenge account Income

 

Total Invested in Stocks $2,053.33
Stocks Unrealized Profit -$66.28
Stocks Realized Profit -$57.18
Strangles Income -$1,316.00
Spreads Income $207.97
Dividends Income $82.07
Deposits Total (lifetime) $2,800.00
Cash $62.57
Net-Liq $1,576.40

 

If you want to see what investments we take and what trades and strategies we will use to grow this small account, join our program today and grow your money. We engage in safe investments, select strategies to maximize winning trades and grow our portfolio. And you can do it too, today! We do not provide quick rich promises, gambling, or reckless strategies. We want our portfolio to grow steadily and preserve our capital while maximizing returns.
 

As a member, you will have access to the following features:
 

 

 




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Posted by Martin September 20, 2023
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Technical view: Realty Income, Inc. (O)


Technical view
 

O is in stage #4. Realty Income (O) is a dividend darling of many investors, and it has paid and increased dividends for more than 25 years. The company went public in 1995 and survived many downturns the biggest in 2000, 2009, and 2020. It increased the dividend during those periods of time. It also survived high interest rates back in 1995 (the FED rate was 6% in 1995) and it survived the rates in 2000 and 2009 too. Yes, the stock declined during those years but if you were not panicking and bought, you ended

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading O Technical View:




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Posted by Martin September 18, 2023
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August 2023 SPX put credit spreads trading review


August 2023 SPX trading was slow. Since I trade mostly bullish trades, during bear markets or corrections I sit aside and wait. Time to time, I open a bearish trade but in corrections or during high volatility, the bearish trade may quickly turn against me and I do not want to have too many bearish trades that need my attention or rolling back into bullish trades. So this month, I was mostly on the sidelines.

I also switched to broken wing butterfly trades. These trades offer better opportunity than plain spreads. They are initially sold for credit and they have a high chance of expiring worthless while providing some downward protection. Even if the trade goes completely against us, there is a good chance to repair it for credit. If you follow our trade signals, we had a call broken wing butterfly (BWB) that got completely against us.

 

Our SPX account is up +1,271.58% since the beginning of this program, and we have $25,680 in unrealized gains.

 

Initial SPX trade set ups

 

I dedicated a $3,600 initial amount that will be used to trade SPX PCS (now BWB) strategy per week. Today, the account is up at $48,711.95. However, due to the recent bear market, many trades are still open, and the funds are tied to those open trades. The trades need to expire or be closed for a profit to release the funds.
 

Our SPX strategy is designed as directional options trading. We are selling credit put spreads to collect premiums, and hopefully, these spreads expire worthlessly, or we repurchase them for a small debit.

We use a set of indicators, trend prediction (primarily based on moving averages, volume profiles, and trend forecasting), and market sentiment that generates bullish signals. The trading is based on a “trend-following strategy.” We open the trade if we have a bullish signal and a bullish trend. If we do not have a signal, we stay away. We also trade credit call spreads when we have bearish signals. In a choppy market, we stay away from or trade very short expirations (usually 1 or 2 days or up to 7 days), but the trading is muted as we need a trending market.

 

Here you can see all our 2023 trades:

 
SPX PCS account value
Click on the picture above to see the entire list.
 

Last month trading

 

Overall, the strategy resulted in a +1,271.58% gain last month.
 

Initial account value (since inception: 12/07/2021): $3,600.00
Last month beginning value: $48,711.95
Last month ending value: $49,376.95 (+1.37%; total: +1,271.58%)
The highest capital requirements to trade this strategy: $19,995
Current capital at risk: -$15,680
Unrealized Gain: $25,680 (-163.78%)
Realized Gain: $4,986 (-31.80%)
Total Gain: $30,666 (-195.57%)
Win Ratio: 54%
Average Winner: $707
Average Loser: $771

As you can see, our account currently shows a realized gain of $4,986, and we have an additional $25,680 unrealized gains.

 

SPX PCS account value
SPX PCS account value
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX net liq
SPX PCS account vs SPX index net liq
 

SPX PCS account vs SPX performance
SPX PCS account vs SPX performance
 

If you want to receive trade alerts whenever we open a new SPX put credit spread or a hedge trade, you can subscribe to our service:

 

 

Note that if you wish to subscribe to multiple levels, you can only subscribe to one level and send us an email that you want to be added to other levels.

Also, if you like this report, hit the like button so I know there is enough audience wanting to see this type of report. If you have any questions or want to see anything else about my SPX trading, do not hesitate to contact me or comment in the comments section. Thank you!

 
 




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Posted by Martin September 13, 2023
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Technical view: Amazon, Inc. (AMZN)


Technical view
 

AMZN is in stage #2. The stock is recovering from last year’s carnage. In 2022 it almost reached lows from 2020 Covid lows. It was a great buying opportunity. But for the entire 2023 it was rallying and erasing the losses. If you were bold enough to buy when everyone else was panicking, you are sitting on nice gains. The stock rallied 60% from the 2022 lows. And the company is a great business. On the surface, it may look like a boring bad enterprise – what is good about a grey boring internet selling portal? eBay does it too! But there is a difference between the two. There is very powerful advertising on their portals, powerful cloud service (gaining steam again), and much more.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading AMZN Technical View:




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Posted by Martin September 06, 2023
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Technical view: Aflac Incorporated (AFL)


Technical view
 

AFL is in stage #2. The stock performed very well during the bear market. We had a decline but it recovered very nice and it wasn’t as deep as what we saw in 2020. Today, the stock is also pulling back from a strong rally which may provide a good opportunity.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading AFL Technical View:




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Posted by Martin September 04, 2023
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Septembear or Septembull?


Will we see a Septembear or Septembull from now on? August correction is over. I know it is a bold statement, and you may find many people out there who would oppose and disagree with me. CNBC keeps pulling bears from the past who got stuck in the past, and they keep predicting a bear market, recession, and the end of the world. It’s almost comical.

The US economy was resilient and strong despite rapid interest hikes from the FED, but that started changing. The very last jobless claims report we received on Friday started showing cracks in the labor market. Bears use it as evidence for their recession claims. But the charts of multiple economic data show otherwise. The chance, not prediction, of a continuing bull market is higher than the odds of a recession. People fail to acknowledge different circumstances to what was happening in 2020-2023. We could be rightfully worried if the monetary policy happened during normal boring years. But 2020 was not a normal, boring year. A sudden economic stop moved the pendulum of economic balance way to the extreme. In 2021, that pendulum swung to another extreme. In 2022, we overshot to the opposite extreme again, and in 2023 that pendulum is attempting to get back to the mean. I don’t think this is recessionary unless the FED screws it all up (yes, the chance is high).

 
Septembear or Septembull
 

But, so far, J. P. is managing this economic monster well to a soft landing (if there will be any landing at all, it could just be a normal slowdown).
The market finished off August on a high note. Interest rates fell with a big drop in the Job Openings (JOLTS) numbers. The tech stocks had a good week. Oil is becoming a big story as it is hitting $86.05 per barrel today (Saturday). I fear that supply is being weaponized against us by countries that don’t like us.
President Biden cannot turn to an almost depleted Strategic Oil Reserve this time to help keep prices down. It is also very questionable whether he has the will to fight back by increasing supply in the U.S. The energy and tech sectors continue to look best right now.
 




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Posted by Martin September 03, 2023
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August 2023 Investing and Trading Report


Another month, August 2023 is over. And it was a difficult month for our investing and trading. I expected it to be difficult because the markets rallied too fast and too hard in the previous few months. And if you are subscribed to our newsletter, I wrote in it that I wanted a deeper pullback. And we got 5% retreat which was perfectly normal and to be expected correction. This was a correction and it didn’t change the narrative of a new bull market. In fact, it confirmed it. We have more bullish signals indicating that this market will go higher.

Nevertheless, this pullback had surprisingly bad impact to our investing and trading. Our net-liq of the account shed away a stunning 16.80%. It dropped by -$12,033.60. I suspect this to be the result of margin trading and options which suddenly spiked and because I have some of them naked and sold them during low IV time, their impact was significant. However, as the market returns back to upward trajectory, I expect this to correct and the account will go higher again.

Our cash to buying power dropped a bit as we continued reinvesting our proceeds:

 
Cash - Net-Liq - BP 08
 

Our options trading delivered $3,498.00 gain last month (4.88%). Our net-liq value decreased by -16.80% to $71,619.81 value. Our overall account is up 15.04% YTD and -31.56% from when the bear market started in January 2022.
 

Here is our investing and trading report:

 

Account Value: $71,619.81 -$12,033.60 -16.80%
Options trading results
Options Premiums Received: +$3,498.00
01 January 2023 Options: +$1,466.00 +1.97%
02 February 2023 Options: $2,754.00 +10.34%
03 March 2023 Options: -$1,462.00 -2.05%
04 April 2023 Options: +$16,410.00 +8.54%
05 May 2023 Options: +$6,942.00 +9.85%
06 June 2023 Options: +$3,116.00 +4.05%
07 July 2023 Options: +$4,484.00 +5.36%
08 August 2023 Options: +$3,498.00 +4.88%
Options Premiums YTD: +$37,308.00 +52.09%
Dividend income results
Dividends Received: +$795.50
01 January 2023 Dividends: +$407.13
02 February 2023 Dividends: +$731.21
03 March 2023 Dividends: +$482.14
04 April 2023 Dividends: +$820.22
05 May 2023 Dividends: +$590.19
06 June 2023 Dividends: +$848.65
07 July 2023 Dividends: +$478.37
08 August 2023 Dividends: +$795.50
Dividends YTD: +$5,402.09
Portfolio Equity
Portfolio Equity: $211,270.70 -$31,952.04 -13.14%
Portfolio metrics
Portfolio Yield: 6.15%
Portfolio Dividend Growth: 23.35%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 10 yrs: $547,583.80 251.97%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 20 yrs: $27,472,481,899.83 12,641,273.08%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 25 yrs: $1,590,227,801,629,540.00 731,732,355,914.03%
Ann. Div Income & YOC in 30 yrs: $10,754,061,522,193,600,000,000.00 4,948,407,244,053,650,000.00%
Portfolio Alpha: 46.01%
Sharpe Ratio: 4.42 EXCELLENT
Portfolio Weighted Beta: 0.56
CAGR: 199.74%
AROC: 53.77%
TROC: 5.15%
Our 2023 Goal
2023 Dividend Goal: $8,000.00 67.53% In Progress
2023 Options Income Goal: $70,000 53.30% In Progress
2023 Portfolio Value Goal: $96,532.51 74.19% In Progress
6-year Portfolio Value Goal: $175,000.00 40.93% In Progress
10-year Portfolio Value Goal: $1,000,000.00 7.16% In Progress

 

Dividend Investing and Trading Report

 

In August 2023 we have received $795.50 in dividends bringing our dividend income at $5,402.09.

We did not purchase any dividend stock this month.

 
Here is a chart of our account equity showing our accumulation goal and the value of all stocks in our account. It shows a nice upward-sloping chart as our equities grow. This is a result of our options trading and using premiums to buy dividend stocks:

 
Account Equity 7
 

As you can see in the chart above, August was pretty much catastrophic for our equity holdings. They dropped significantly.

And here you can see the dividend income those equities pay us every year:

 
Annual Dividend Payout 7

 

Growth stocks Investing and Trading Report

 

In August 2023, we purchased no growth stocks.

 

Options Investing and Trading Report

 

In August 2023, our options trading delivered a gain of $3,498.00. I hoped, we would be able to make more money but due to the correction, I had to stay low and preserve cash to maintain buying power. I also used this income to adjust some of the SPX trades that needed adjustment so they can expire worthless.

 

Expected Future Dividend Income

 

We received $795.50 in dividends last month. Our portfolio currently yields 6.15% at $71,619.81 market value. I am happy with this progress as I am nearing a $1,000 a month in dividend income. As of today, our projected monthly dividend income is $688.97 (the real income is $450.17, but that is because our new holdings didn’t pay the dividend yet). Note that these numbers are averages. One month we get less another month we get more income.

Our projected annual dividend income in 10 years is $547,583.80, but that projection is if we do absolutely nothing and let our positions grow without adding new positions or reinvesting the dividends.

We are also set to receive a $8,267.69 annual dividend income ($688.97 monthly income). We are 1.51% of our 10 year goal of $547,583.80 dividend income.

 
Future Divi on YOC 08
 

The chart above shows how our future dividend income is based on the future yield on cost and what dividend income we may expect. The expected dividend growth depends on what stocks we add to our portfolio and the stocks’ 3 years’ average dividend growth rate. It is interesting to see what passive income we may enjoy 10, 20, 25, or 30 years from now.

 

Market value of our holdings

 

Our non-adjusted stock holdings market value decreased from $243,222.75 to $211,270.70 last month.

In 2023 we planned on accumulating dividend stocks, monetizing these positions, HFEA strategy, and SPX trading. We plan to raise more of our holdings to 100 shares to sell covered calls. We continued rebalancing our options trades that released buying power significantly. That allowed us to start repurchasing shares of our interest.

 
Stock holdings trading 8
 

We aim to accumulate 100 shares of dividend growth stocks we like and then start selling covered calls or strangles around those positions. We also planned on reinvesting all dividends back into those holdings.

 

Investing and trading ROI

 

Our options trading delivered a 4.88% monthly ROI in August 2023, totaling a 52.09% ROI YTD. We exceeded our 45% annual revenue goal in selling options against dividend stocks.

Our entire account is still down -31.56% from when the bear market started. However, in 2023 our account is up 15.04% YTD. During 2022 bear market it became apparent that although I had a lot of cash savings, I didn’t have enough. So my goal for the rest of the year will be accumulating cash. The market is still in an overbought territory so I will not be making new purchases, rather, I will be saving cash for the next crash.

Our trading averaged $4,663.50 per month this year. If this trend continues, we will make $55,962.00 in trading options in 2023. As of today, we have made $37,308.00 in trading options. This is below our projected goal. Based on the goal, we should average $5,834 options income per month. But I hope, as the year progresses, we can increase options income to our goal.

 

Investing and trading report in charts

 

Account Net-Liq

 

TW Account trading Net-Liq 7
 

The drawdown of our account is highly discouraging, but it started improving. I am not selling any stock positions, and I will be buying back those I sold to release our Buying Power. On top of that, I will be buying more dividend-paying shares as much as possible.

 

Account Stocks holding

 

TW Account holdings 7
 

Last month, S&P 500 grew 56.11% since we opened our portfolio while our portfolio grew 29.47%. On YTD basis, the S&P 500 grew 23.38% and our portfolio 19.99%. We are underperforming market by -3.38%.

The numbers above apply to our stock holdings adjusted by options premiums.

 

Stock holdings Growth YTD

 

TW Account holdings Growth YTD 8
 

Our stock holdings are underperforming the market. Hopefully, this trend will improve, and we will do better than S&P 500. However, our portfolio performs better in bear markets so far. In 2022 we outperformed S&P 500 by 11.73% (it lost less than the market).

Our 10-year goal is to grow this account to $1,000,000.00 value in ten years. We are in year two, and we accomplished 7.16% of that goal.

Our 6-year goal is to reach $175,000 account value to be eligible for portfolio margin (PM), and today we accomplished 40.93% of that goal.

Our 2023 year goal is to grow this account to a $96,532.51, and today we accomplished 74.19% of this goal.

 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Monthly Income

 

TW Options Trading Income 8
 

Investing and Trading Report – Options Annual Income

 

TW Options Annual Trading Income 8

 

Our dividend goal and future dividends

 

TW Received vs Projected Dividends 8
 

We planned to make $8,000.00 in dividend income in 2023. As of today, we received $5,402.09. We also accumulated enough shares to start making $8,267.69 a year. Our monthly projected dividend income is $688.97, and our current monthly dividend income is $450.17.

 
TW Received vs Future monthly Dividends 8

 

I have a favor to ask. If you like this report, please, hit the like like button button, so I know that there is enough audience that like this content. Also, if there is something you want to know or you want me to change this report to a different format, let me know in the comments section.

 




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Posted by Martin August 29, 2023
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Technical view: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)


Technical view
 

NVDA is in stage #2. The stock rallied very hard and there is a lot of controversy about this stock and the company it represents. We have a strong cult built around the stock. People would die defending it and they buy no matter what. And these people were awarded sticking to their guns further empowering their cult-like mentality. Then there is a whole other group of bears saying that this stock is crazy, the run unsustainable and the stock is overpriced. The rest don’t know how to value this company. And it is a problem. It is extremely hard to value NVDA and predict its future outcomes. Even if we step way far away to see the whole picture.

 
Technical view weekly
 

Keep reading NVDA Technical View:




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