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Posted by Martin February 19, 2013
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Market expectations

Market expectations

Today’s trading is over and the markets added to their gains and added to their overbought pressure. Everybody is already talking about correction behind the door, but the market is still strong and marching up. Investors are still pouring new money, moving more cash to the stocks on every dip. It really is something which should make every savvy investor cautious.

Fear and Greed indicator is at 86 level – still very elevated. Optimism is supported by investors confidence data from Germany, but not economical improvement. US homebuilders confidence fell down from previous period. All that can quickly turn into negative and investors can run away from the market very quickly.

I am waiting with my new purchases or additions to see what happens next. I do not want to be buying at the current price levels. There are stocks out there, where you can already see some pressure and slow down.

I might be wrong and I do not want to be predicting the market movement, but I think, it would be wise to wait at this moment. However, I have a few stocks I am currently watching closely being ready to buy.

One of them is McDonalds (MCD). A fenomenal stock in my opinion. Last week I have read an article, why you should sell MCD today and buy it later at a lower price. As a dividend investor I do not agree with this strategy, but I take it as a great opportunity. If the author is correct and bad data from MCD, in my opinion temporary, really push MCD down to $84 a share, which again I do not think is a realistic expectation, I would buy more shares. I agree with another investor, Craig Van Pelt, who posted his story witnessing opening of McDonalds stores in Russia and what wonder it did to Russians, that MCD still has great power around the world to easily overcome any consumer drops today. I have a similar experience from a post-communist East European country. As MCD is expanding to other countries, it will provide realitively cheap fast food to inhabitans of those countries. In many occassions I remember McDonalds was considered a restaurant with high food standard in quality and assurance that the food is checked and fresh as opposed to many local restaurants. If any problems should occur, they will be temporary and create a great opportunity to buy MCD for cheap.

Another stock I am considering to add to my portfolio is Gold ETF (GLD). Gold is currently heavily shorted. I believe that in long term this is another opportunity to buy more shares. Given the monetary policy of FED and ECB currencies will decline and that will push gold up. The banks are buying gold heavily, so all the hype around gold these days look like a shake out to me. I plan on holding gold for another 15 – 20 years from now. Given the time frame I think, this would be a good time to buy some more shares.

Last stock in my nearest focus is 8×8 Inc. (EGHT). Today I did some reading about this stock as a candidate for covered call and I liked what I could find on the internet. The stock is currently in correction phase and the correction is in line of the previous corrections. If we assume that the stock market moves in some sort of a rythm repeating itself, than I am assuming EGTH would act in similar manner in the future. Given that the stock may grow up at or above $7.5 per share and that will be my play. I will buy-write a covered call trade expecting the stock to be called away.

In the near future it looks like the market will continue its upward move with some minor stops or slight corrections. We are not exhausted yet to see some major pullback. My strategy will be however waiting for it and adding new trades carefully.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin February 18, 2013
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My inspiration in last week #10

My inspiration in last week #10

I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

 

This week I found the following interesting posts:

Dump Your Hedge Funds and Buy This StockInsider Monkey

G-20 Sparks Gold’s Ugly Sell-OffSeeking Alpha

Central Banks Buy the Most Gold Since 196424/7 Wall Street

Why It’s Time To Sell McDonald’s Shares Now And Buy On The Next Major PullbackSeeking Alpha

Buying Options Is A Fool’s ErrandBrick By Brick Investing

Top 10 Reasons I Like Dividend Growth StocksDividend Growth Stock Investing




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Posted by Martin February 14, 2013
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Expiration Friday – 13.71% gain

Expiration Friday - 13.71% gain

Tomorrow will be the time to reap the profits, harvest the gains or count the loses. Since the day I decided to trade only covered calls and cash secured puts and buying dividend stocks my goal was not to lose a penny. As Warren Buffets says it.

Easy said, difficult to do. I have a couple of options trades which are not going well as far as now, but I have plenty of time to wait since the expiration day is far away and a lot of things can happen until then. So there is no need for panicking.

I hold a covered call of MBIA (MBI) stock, which is now deep in the money and that means it will get execute tomorrow. The option will be exercised and I will be required to sell my shares of MBI.

The guy on the other side will make nice profit. He will buy the stock for $9.00 a share and sell it for 10.95. Very nice gross profit of $1.95 a share. He paid 0.52 to buy my call, so his net profit (without commissions) will be 1.43 per contract.

But what about me? will I lose money?

This trade didn’t go well from the beginning and later I was even considering closing the ugly trade. But as many times in the past, the ugly ducklings turn into nice swans, this trade also turned to be a swan. If you remember, I opened this trade with a purpose of being assigned. It was my goal to get assigned because it was how I could make money on this trade.

Here are the trade details:

Bought 100 shares MBI: $8.18
Strike: $9.00
Sold 1 Covered Call: $0.52
Total Purchase: $766.00
Commissions: $8.78
Total purchase: $774.78
   
Expected Option Assignment: $900.00
Option Assignment Fee: $19.00
Expected Proceeds: $881.00
   
Expected Net Gain: $106.22
Expected ROI: 13.71%

The call option is deep in the money, and it is very unlikely that it falls below $9.00 a share tomorrow, so I can consider this trade as victory and Count the Money…

My other options have expirations in March, May, July and August 2013 and there is a plenty of time (value) in those options.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin February 14, 2013
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New Trade – ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) addition

New Trade - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. (ARR) addition

This morning Armour Residential (ARR) opened 5% lower due to SPO. There may be many reasons for SPO but thoe one I have read on the internet would be financing new projects. With a book value at $6.73 this seems to be a good sign. It is also how REITs get their financing. They issue SPO, the price drops, later, usually within 30 days they get back to where they were before. It looks like a great opportunity to add shares to my portfolio.

I bought 100 shares this morning:

02/14/2013 11:31:46 Bought 100 ARR @ 6.7399

Total shares held as of today: 405
Estimated annual dividend: $388.80
Consecutive Dividend Increase: 0 years
Dividend yield today: 14.10%
Dividend 5yr Growth: N/A
Dividend paid since: 2010



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Posted by Martin February 13, 2013
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Is MCD providing a buy opportunity?

Is MCD providing a buy opportunity?

Today news came up about a possible margin squeeze affecting restaurant chains. Higher commodity costs, frugal consumers, possibly a higher minimum wage could possible affect earnings of companies such as McDonald’s (MCD), Chipotle (CMG), Subway and Panera (PNRA).

How serious this is?

I hold MCD in my portfolio. It pays dividends and current yield is at 3.24% with dividend growth at 14%. The free cash flow rate, 5yr average is 13.4%, earnigs growth 23.8%, EBIDTA 19.8% and my annual expected return is at 9%.

The company is followed by 44 hedge fund managers. One of their rules to add shares into their portfolios is that at least one executive officer should buy the company stock. In November last year this exactly happened and the stock has risen 8% since then.

So smart money are buying the stock.

The stock was very extended since November last year with a nice drop in price in December 2012 when I pick up some shares. Will today’s price action offer the same opportunity?

MCD provides buy opportunity

Will the stock, squeezed by panicking investors provide a similar opportunity as it happened in November and partially in December?

Time will show, however, this price action activated my attention to this stock and I will be adding more shares to my portfolio. I am going to wait for tomorrow morning to see what the stock is going to do. If it continues falling I will track my buy order lower as well, if it reverses I might cancel the trade and wait further.




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Posted by Martin February 13, 2013
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New Trade – MBIA Inc (MBI) put selling

New Trade - MBIA Inc (MBI) put selling

Today I execute the trade on MBIA Inc (MBI) which i wrote about yesterday. I sold 1 put contract against this stock.

What is the game plan?

I will be selling puts against this stock, but trying to avoid assignemnt. If it however happens and I get assigned or won’t be able to roll the put out and away I will start selling covered calls as long as I get assigned again and get rid of the stock.

Today I sold one put contract against MBI and collected $118 premium.

02/13/2013 09:30:09 Sold 1 MBI Aug 17 2013 9.0 Put @ 1.18

If I get assigned I will buy MBI for $9.00 and my cost basis will be at $7.82 (less the premium). If I gett assigned, I will start selling covered calls as I did previously with this stock.

If the stock stays above the strike price, the put expires worthless and I’ll keep the premium and repeat the process. Also if the stock manages to run up and the put becomes worthless prior to its expiration I may consider buying the put back and selling new further in time. I’ll keep posting the progress of this trade.




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Posted by Martin February 12, 2013
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MBIA Inc (MBI) and put selling

MBIA Inc (MBI) and put selling

After reviewing my current position with MBIA (MBI) I decided to take another trade with this stock. I already hold 100 shares of MBI and have a covered call written against this stock, see my previous trade here.

This trade went bad originally and I was double guessing it whether it was a good joice buying this stock. It was fighting with Bank of America over some insurance claim issues, where MBI claimed lost money insuring some faulty notes issued by BAC and BAC knew that the notes were bad. Well, at the time prior to crisis, everybody did it actually.

It looks like MBI is going to be paid some compensation in a settlement and thus we saw this stock soaring last couple of days.

I am going to take the advantage of this movement, and tomorrow I will sell a put against this stock. I was able to find a nice premium for quite low strike ($9.00) at 1.18 ($118 total premium), so if the stocks stays where it is now or even goes higher, I should keep the premium and maybe repeat the process.

If the stock falls below $9.00 strike, which can easily happen, I am OK to get assigned to the stock and immediately sell it or sell another covered call against it.

Let’s see tomorrow how the trade executes.




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Posted by Martin February 12, 2013
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Be a banker to yourself

Be a banker to yourself

I bet you have heard about terms “bank on yourself” or “Infinite banking”. If not, let me briefly introduce you to this strategy. If you already know what this means, you can skip the following paragraph.

What infinite banking is in a nut shell? The main goal is that you open a whole life insurance policy with an insurance company, ideally a dividend paying whole life insurance policy. You must choose a policy which would allow you to take loans from the policy when needed. Then for the first 5 years you pay the premium to your policy and actually you overpay it. Then a part of your contribution goes towards your life policy (mandatory) and the remaining contribution goes towards the investing part of the policy. The first 5 years is the capitalization phase, after which the policy should be self-sustaining. This means that you no longer are require to pay your mandatory premiums because the investing part pays you dividends, usually around 5%, which are used to pay your premiums. Or you can continue paying premiums and additional over-paid-premiums. Then anytime you need money to finance your new car, house or even retirement (an official claim from infinite banking promoters) you can take a loan from your life policy and then pay it back. You pay interest usually around 5% on that loan. The good part is that you are paying the interest to yourself.

I came across this strategy once several years ago and I liked the principle to use your own money and then pay it back with an interest. That would be a neat way how to avoid credit cards debt. I even started practicing this method for a while, but later I stopped. The reason was that I was under capitalized and thus it didn’t work well.

Recently I came across this method again in regards to a fellow blogger FI Fighter, who was buying his second investment property. He needed some cash for his down payment and he was literally forced to liquidate a part of his portfolio. See his story here. After that he followed with three waves of sell off of his portfolio. My financial heart was bleeding, my financial mind was screaming.

This was the impulse to me to find a solution so I won’t have to go over a sell off of my own portfolio if a need for cash arises.

My savings plan

I do save money besides my investment portfolio. I save for several goals. For each goal I have a dedicated savings account, because I do not like mixing several goals and amounts together. This causes me to lose track of what the purpose of my savings is and how much I have saved for each goal.

I save for larger yearly payments, such as $300 property tax and save $25 every month in a dedicated savings account. My next purpose is an ASHRAE membership dues at $190 yearly, so I save $16 monthly in another dedicated savings account and so on. You get the point.

But what if a major investment comes along, such as FI Fighter had? What if I want to buy a new car? And that is a very valid concern, since my old F150 truck is very close to dying. Do I want to save cash in a savings account which bears 0.90% interest only? Or am I willing to take a risk and act like an “Infinite banker” to myself?

Why I do not like the infinite banking strategy?

The main reason why I do not like the Infinite Banking strategy is the life insurance behind it. I do not think that it is a great idea overpaying an insurance policy and make a commitment of paying $250, $500, or even thousands of dollars monthly for at least five years to capitalize an insurance policy, and knowing that 50% is what the insurance company swallows forever, or until you die.

The next item I do not like is the interest rate. I am a believer in leverage. I leverage my investments, because in long term I can make more money now, during my capitalization phase. The infinite banking was created in 1980s when interest rates on loans soared from 8% p.a. to 21% p.a. With such interest, it makes sense borrowing money from yourself and pay 5% or 6% only and to yourself. But today the situation is very different. Today I can get a car loan at 1.5% APY, mortgage at 3.5% APY, a personal loan at 7% APY. Why would I be then tapping into my savings and investments which are making me almost 14% annually? Since I believe in leveraging as I mentioned above, I actually borrow money at 7% and invest them at 14% (with Lending Club for example). Then I use proceedings to pay the loan off and keep the difference in interest rate.

Why I like the infinite banking strategy

I still like the concept of not borrowing money from credit card companies for example and use your own money instead. This makes sense since the credit card companies charge 16% at best, but 25% at worst. Borrowing from yourself at 6% and paying the interest to yourself is a lot better solution.

To bypass the life insurance and get similar results I decided to launch an experiment. I opened a brokerage account with Scottrade which will serve as the “life insurance” dividend paying account. This would help avoiding keeping money in a low interest savings accounts (which I still will maintain for short term – yearly savings as described above). I am willing to take the risk of capital value fluctuation. I will invest into dividend paying stocks and ETFs. I will undergo the 5 year capitalization phase to save enough to be able to take a loan if needed. In case of taking a loan I will need patience (which originally many years ago I was lacking) to keep paying this loan off with an interest to myself.




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Posted by Martin February 10, 2013
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My inspiration in last week #9

My inspiration in last week #9

I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

 

This week I found the following interesting posts:

Warren Buffett’s Techniques on How to be a Self-Made BillionaireThe Buffett Effect

Warren BuffettWikipedia

How Much Is Abbott Labs WorthSeeking Alpha

Don’t Get Too Worked Up Over TASER International’s Latest NumbersThe Motley Fool




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Posted by Martin February 10, 2013
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Website update

Website update

I updated my website. It still is not finished and not everything works yet. But I will continue working on it.

I like simple look of the website, hope you enjoy it as well.




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