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Posted by Martin January 08, 2013
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New trade – Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (KOG) covered call

New trade - Kodiak Oil & Gas Corp (KOG) covered call

Another company I decided to add to my options portfolio is Kodiak Oil & Gas Corporation. Kodiak is focused on the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States. Kodiak now looks to develop its robust portfolio of assets. The energy company plans to grow production 80% year over year during the interim (Source: Motley Fools). There are 18 brokers following this stock and the mean price target is is at 11.39, with high target at $13 a share. Credit Suisse, The Street, Global Hunter Securities, Wunderlich, and Canaccord Genuity are bullish on the stock.

The company achieved over 250% revenue growth in FY2012 and analysts expect almost 100% sales increases in FY2013. KOG has a minuscule five year projected PEG (.40). Earnings per share more than quadrupled from FY2011. Earnings are project to rise another 75% in FY2013 by analysts. The stock is priced at less than 13x forward earnings, a discount to its five year average (16.7) (Source: Seeking Alpha).

KOG

Since the stock has a bullish expectation with a great growth potential and it is a buy at $9 a share I decided to play this stock as a covered call – total return strategy (meaning that I want the stock to be called away).




01/08/2013 09:30:42 Bought 100 KOG @ 9.41
01/08/2013 09:30:42 Sold 1 KOG Mar 16 2013 10.0 Call @ 0.52

Total trade: $889
Commissions: $8.78
Total NET trade: $897.78

Option assignment: $1000.00
Option assignment fee: $19.00
Expected proceeds: $981.00

Expected NET gain: $83.22
Expected ROI: 9.27%




There are a few outcomes with this stock. I am taking March 16, 2013 expiration as part of my “covered call ladder” (and I could get a lot better premium with max 68 day expiration (time) I am willing to sell) and that can bring some issues or possible outcomes:

  1. The stock will slowly grow and chop around $10 a share and it will be called away. In that case I will realize above spelled ROI. Since I like this stock, I will most likely repeat the process and buy-write another trade after this one will be over.
  2. The stock won’t rise above $10 a share. but stays above my break even point. In that case the option call expires worthless, I’ll keep the stock and a premium and sell a new $10 option for the next period. I will repeat this process as long as the stock is called away.
  3. The stock will skyrocket and surpass quickly the current strike price and lands at 12 or even 13 dollars a share during the end of January or February 2013. If that happens I want to participate on that growth. In that case I would buy-write another contract with higher strikes. I will continue doing this as long as the stock will be rising.
  4. The stock will suffer and falls too deep before expiration. In that case I will evaluate a trade repair strategy similar to one I described for my DMD trade (see My DMD covered call and fiscal cliff? post). I might be selling another lower strike OTM covered call before I sell deep ITM covered call to get rid of this trade break even or with a small gain.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin January 07, 2013
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My plans for managing cash in my TD account

My plans for managing cash in my TD account

Recently I had to change my thinking about how I wanted to manage cash in my TD account and potentially in my all accounts. The question was, do I want to use all my cash (be always 100% invested) or keep some cash on side for potential purchases if an opportunity shows up.

During my investing/trading career I always was 100% invested and whenever I contributed some cash into my account I invested it immediately. The result was that fees and commissions almost killed me down, since I was depositing small amounts of cash. Sometimes I deposited $50 or 100 dollars and invested that cash immediately. If you invest $50 and you pay $9.95 commission you are down 20% right away and you have to make 40% just to break even.

So I changed my cash strategy and I decided that I would only invest into commission free mutual funds. Another problem rose. Many mutual funds required large initial investment, their return was mediocre and in many occasions their expense ratios were way above 1.0, some even exceeded 2.0. But I wanted dividend paying stocks and not mutual funds, many of them paying no dividend or very little. More on top of that if I wanted to sell a portion of my mutual funds holdings and buy a dividend paying stock I had to wait at least 180 day to avoid a redemption fee. Gosh, I didn’t like this either.

So I changed my strategy once again. This time I decided that I would invest min 800 dollars lot into dividend paying stocks or use that amount for options trading. This strategy worked and I was saving cash and using margin to boost my portfolio. But then a great opportunity to buy a great dividend paying stock showed up right after I purchased a stock and suddenly I had no cash. Next I came across a great put selling trade with great premium and great profit potential and I had no cash. Next time the whole market went down and I had no cash for my maintenance and I started receiving margin calls.

Although I saw great results in building my portfolio fast, I wasn’t satisfied with lack of money to invest when a great opportunity presented itself.

There were a few people who inspired me to change my thinking about cash in my account. It was a manager of my 401k account who once held a training in our company and he said that he was always saving some amount of cash in his own 401k for new opportunities and if they arrived he just moved a portion from his cash equivalent into that new investment. Another investor inspiring me was Teddi Knight who explained on her web her investing strategy. I realized that this is what I wanted, what I liked. Holding enough cash will provide me with peace of mind.

With enough cash, I will be able to buy any dividend stock at the best price for me, at the time I want to buy and not at the time I have money available.

With enough money in my account I can be selling cash covered puts anytime I want and as many contracts as I want and that cash will serve as a collateral.

The third person was Dividend Mantra and his article Holding Vs. Deploying Cash who actually made me think about my cash strategy deeper and write it down.

So what I want to do with my cash in my TD account? My plan is to raise cash to 30% of my entire portfolio. I do not have such cash available yet, so I need to save. I also want to invest into dividend paying stocks, sell covered calls and puts. Well, these two things do not go together. So I needed a strategy of how and when to build the cash reserve and when to invest.

Since I wanted to be buying stocks when the market and stocks are falling I decided that the best way to build a cash reserve would be when the market is growing and invest when the market and stocks are falling. That makes sense, doesn’t it? Look at the chart below. When do you want to be buying stocks?

When to buy stocks?

I want to be buying any time the stock pulls down. Apparently many retail investors are buying at the stock’s high and then panicking when the stock pulls down and they happen to sell when the stock is down. Believe me, they do it, because I was doing it as well. Many times I bought a stock which turned down either right away after I purchased it (as if the Mr. Market was laughing at me) and then, since I was using a stop loss order I got stopped out on its way down. Don’t get fooled about the uptrend shown on that chart. It can be easily a multi-year chart. So where do you want to be buying? At the green arrows or the red ones?

Personally, I want to be buying at the green arrows.

A great example can be a stock (ETF) I want to add to my portfolio SDY. See the chart below.

Buying stocks - SDY example

  1. I noticed SDY stock at this point, when I decided to add it to my portfolio. However, at this point I saw SDY on its way up. Would you buy at this point? If I bought at this point, I would see some growth.
  2. Buying at the point #2 would also be buying too high in my opinion. No stock rises continuously up. After some growth, it always pull back or goes sideway. And that was what I was waiting for. If I bought at the point #1 or #2 the next pull back would keep me locked at loss. Once I heard do not buy at prices where retail investors are buying, buy where pros are buying.
  3. At the point #3 (actually the day before) the price dropped low enough for me to open a buy order. But, the problem was that I didn’t have free cash in my account. This is the example why I decided to keep 30% cash in my account. The first black line indicates where my buy order would be (if the stock rises at or above this line I would buy)… if I had free cash.
  4. I still was willing to buy at this point and I finally had enough cash to buy. The price however gapped up too much, so the order didn’t fill. I will be waiting for another opportunity.

This is an example of why I believe it is worth waiting for your price. In a very long investment horizon this may not seem significant, but I believe, buying at retreats will save you cash and allow you buying more shares in the first place.

I read a few web sites and most of the value and dividend investors like to wait for sell off to buy cheap stocks. There is another web site I like to watch. It is a CNN Money Fear & Greed Index. Waiting for the sell off? Then lets wait for the market and investors being moved by fear to start buying. As of this writing the market is in greed mood.

Fear & Greed

The chart above shows the index at 80 level indicating extreme greed and extreme optimism. Although I do not take it as a dogma I do not want to be buying stocks at this point unless they show correction, drop in price, consolidation or any similar price action which will be favorable to add more shares. As long as the index starts dropping, it will be time to look for buying opportunities. During these levels or rising I want to be saving cash, write covered calls or sell puts.

Happy trading!




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Posted by MartZee January 06, 2013
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My inspiration in last week #4


I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

This week I found the following interesting posts:

New Purchase – KO, LINE / Sale – BWPCompounding Income

Milestone Reached – $300 Month in DividendsFI Fighter

Market Timing System – Trading Market Direction Using The VIX IndexFully Informed

Book Review: Get Rich with Dividends Dividend Growth Machine

GLD: Nearing A Potential BottomSeeking Alpha

Successful Investors Eliminate Debt!Brick By Brick Investing




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Posted by Martin January 04, 2013
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New trade – MBIA Inc (MBI) covered call


A few days ago when I was considering entering my DMD trade I came across MBIA company as a potential covered call candidate. I read about that company and the news I could find were discouraging. MBIA was fighting with Bank of America about some insurance claim accusing each other from fraud. At some point it looked like MBIA would potentially go bankrupt. So I decided to go with DMD and wait on MBIA.

I continued reading as much as I could find and yesterday I decided to take this trade and I opened a new covered call. Again, this is a total return trade, so I want the stock to be called away at expiration (or even early).

01/03/2013 11:55:47 Bought 100 MBI @ 8.18
01/03/2013 11:55:47 Sold 1 MBI Feb 16 2013 9.0 Call @ 0.52
Total trade: $766.00
Commissions: $8.78
Total NET trade: $774.78

Option assignment: $900.00
Option assignment fee: $19.00
Expected proceeds: $881.00

Expected NET gain: $106.22
Expected ROI: 13.71%

If the stock will be called away, fine I will realize the above described profit. If the stock will not get called away I will continue selling covered calls as long as the stock gets assigned.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin January 03, 2013
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Dividend achievements


So the year 2012 is over. The King is dead, long live the King! A new year is here and I am quite optimistic amid all the tax hike issues and Obama screwing this beautiful and blessed country. My 2012 year investing plan was either non existent or chaotic. I was finally able to spell out a plan for 2013, the goals I wanted to reach. So here is just a quick review of my dividend income from last year:

I started rebuilding my damaged portfolio in July 2012 and after some time of consolidation I was able to start contributing and heavily buying dividend paying stocks. As the chart above indicates, my dividend income started growing steady and fast. I believe I should be able to reach my goal in 2013 and that is to meet and exceed $100 monthly dividend income.

The chart below is monitoring the 2013 dividend income.

I will be re-posting this chart at the end of the month in my new “My Goal 2013” blog category.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin January 03, 2013
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Is Abbott providing a chance of doubling your money?


Recently Abbott realized a spinoff when the company split into two entities – Abbott (ABT) and AbVie (ABBV). If you happened having some shares of ABT, right now you should have the exact amount of shares of ABBV in your account. Both stocks are now prices roughly at the half of the previous ABT price. The cost basis of ABT should now be $31.34 a share and ABBV should be $34.16 a share.

Many times in history a stock price of good companies soon after their stock split run back up to the previous levels and doubled money to their investors. Will ABT or ABBV follow that path? I do not know, but I wish this would be the case.

ABT has a great history, great management, and recently received an FDA approval on another drug XIENCE. It also cooperates with BG Medicine (BGMD) which recently received EU approval on another medicine Galetin-3 blood test. Will these new pipelines help boosting ABT? Time will show.

If you think it is not possible to double the money or have ABT running back up to its 60’s just look at the stock market history.Just look at companies such as Microsoft which split three times in three years, Dell Computer (DELL) split five times in 2-1/2 years, Krispy Kreme Doughnuts which split twice in three months or Taser International which split 3:1 in February 2004 and then 2:1 two months later another 2:1 split.

I am not saying that it will happen, but it may happen. In that case we will see nice juicy profits. ABT looks like a great company having such potential.




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Posted by MartZee December 30, 2012
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My DMD covered call and fiscal cliff?


Recently I opened a covered call position in DMD using a total return approach, which means that I am expecting and want the stock being called away.

I used a low priced stock, since that would provide a higher return than higher priced stock when using small account (or small amount of money available). I will always use stocks priced between $7 to $15 (at least during time of limited money to invest).

My next step in covered calls or plan is to build a ladder (opening a buy-write positions spread into every month thus having expiration in every month).

I started my plan with DMD, which met my criteria and looked bullish. A covered call strategy is a bullish strategy, when you expect the stock actually rise above strike and you get assigned. Once you get assigned, you take the proceeds and repeat the process. You can do the same with the holdings in your account and be a partial return covered calls writer meaning you do NOT want your stock to be called away.

That however, brings some issues. You have to pick your strike well above the current underlying price to provide your stock some cushion for growth and that will lower the premium received so down that it may not be feasible to write calls unless you can write several contracts instead of only one as in my case. I currently do not have enough money in my account and enough shares to write more than one contract.

I also do not want to deal with potential assignment if the stock progresses too far and I will have to roll the call contract up and far away which may be done at a loss or break even. Other reason would be a potential loss of dividend if you happen to get assigned.

So I was thinking a lot if it makes sense for me to write calls against my core holdings or not and I found out that I wanted a peace of mind when dealing with covered calls and decided to use a total-return approach and buying stocks dedicated for this strategy and which I do not mind if they get called away.

I was recently studying a lot how that works and to demystify all the blurs and myths about covered calls I had. I must say I had a totally wrong point of view at covered calls and how they work.

So how my DMD position works so far?

I bought 100 shares for $9.5 per share for a total of $950. I sold one contract of February $10 strike call at the same time for $0.60 per contract. I received $60 premium. That lowers my base price for the stock to $8.90 a share. That means, that the stock can drop in price to $8.90 and I still will be at least break even. If the stock stays at the current price level (below $10 a share) and above $8.90 a share until February 16th, the current option contract expires worthless, I keep the premium and the stock. I can immediately sell another $10 call option for March, which would lower my base of the stock even further down and allows for the stock being called away in March. Or I can repeat this process indefinitely or as long as the stock is called away. But that can be done if the stock price is neutral or slowly drifting down. Of course the best would be if the stock grows up and reaches its strike or exceeds it and is called away.

So the plan is nice and great so far. But we are facing the fiscal cliff problem. Our politicians seem to have no balls to deal with it. It looks like Obama’s strategy is to let the Bush’s cuts expire, so he can blame Republicans for it and when that happens the country will head to another recession and at that time he would come out with his own cuts, which can be no longer called “Bush’s tax cuts” but “Obama tax cuts” (so that loser can have his name at least on something, some bill) and he could be called the “savior” (I do not want to use capital “S” because that communist doesn’t deserve anything close to it, and there is only one Savior in the world).

So what will most likely happen to stocks when this scenario materializes?

The stocks will tank.

This will be potentially good for the long term investors such as us – the dividend investors, since we will be buying many of the stocks for great low price (and I am actually looking forward to it).

But there will be some positions which will get hurt. One of them is my covered call, which is a bullish strategy and the stock may tank faster and way below my break even price. If that happens, you cannot roll out and away easily, selling more calls won’t effectively offset the loss, and you will stay locked in a losing position. Do you want to take the loss and move on or is there any back-up plan to repair such position?

If that happens and DMD tanks at or below $8.9 a share I will close my existing $10 strike call (buy back) for 0.14 a contract. That will provide me an option income of 0.46 or $46 ($60 of original income – $14 buy back). But I will be losing $60 on my stock position. The net gain would be negative $14.

I would have two options – take a loss and move on, or try to repair this position. If DMD falls at $8.9 a share, I can sell ITM (in-the-money) $7.5 May 2013 calls, receive 1.66 premium, and let the stock be assigned. So the numbers will be as follow:

$950 stock – $750 assignment = $200 loss
200 loss – $46 original premium = $154 loss
$154 loss + $14 original call buy back = $168 loss
$168 loss – $166 new premium = $2 loss
(and plus commissions)

With one contract in my account, it probably will not make much sense going thru this repair but in case of having 10 contracts, the difference can be either 140 dollars loss vs. 20 dollars loss when performing the repair. Another option would be to buy back the original call contract and sell one more short term (ideally same month) OTM call contract and when that one expires, then sell ITM contract as described above to eliminate the loss completely and make it a gain. The numbers would look like the following:

$950 stock – $750 assignment = $200 loss
200 loss – $46 original premium = $154 loss
$154 loss – $55 new OTM 10 call = 99 loss
$99 loss + $14 original call buy back = $113 loss
$113 loss – $166 new ITM 7.5 premium = $53 gain
(and plus commissions)

Another thing to remember is that I own a February contract and if the cliff happens in January, I still will have enough time for the stock to recover or enough time to repair the trade such as rolling the call option down and lower the stock base cost and then apply the ITM call repair. There will be a plenty of time to make the decision. One thing is for sure however. If this scenario happens I want to get rid of this trade as quickly as possible. If the stock stays above my current base cost, I am fine keeping the stock and continue selling more calls against it.

I am sharing this strategy as a back-up plan in case the stock drops too low and too fast. If nothing like that happens, fine I’ll be happy taking my 9.15% gain on original trade or continue selling more calls. If the stock falls down or below my break even, I will try to use above described approach to repair it and end the trade with zero loss (commissions included) or a small profit as quickly as possible and move on. Let’s see what January 2013 brings.




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Posted by Martin December 30, 2012
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My inspiration in last week #3


I often browse the internet to find ideas about investing, trading stocks, options, investing opportunities and strategies. I like to read about investors and what their investing/trading approach to create income you can live on is.

This week I found the following interesting posts:

Holding Vs. Deploying CashDividend Mantra

Time to ReflectBrick By Brick Investing

Investing In Dividend Stocks: Why I Chose The Stocks In My PortfolioSeeking Alpha

How I Invest In Municipal BondsBrick By Brick Investing

Why an Asset Allocation of 5 Percent for Gold is Too LowIacono Research




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Posted by Martin December 27, 2012
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New trade – adding Abbott Laboratories (ABT)


Today I bought more shares of ABT to my dividend portfolio at $65.37 per share.

12/27/2012 09:40:48 Bought 15 ABT @ 65.3699

Total shares held as of today: 34
Estimated annual dividend*: $73.44
Consecutive Dividend Increase: 39 years
Dividend yield today: 3.44%
Dividend 5yr Growth: 10.23%
Dividend paid since: 1926

* Note: The dividend is calculated using 2.16 per share (a payout prior to company split in January).




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Posted by Martin December 27, 2012
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New trade – Demand Media Inc (DMD) covered call


Last week I took a position in Demand Media Inc (DMD) and wrote a covered call (buy-write), but posting it now (during Christmas time I didn’t want to post anything). This position was taken as a total-return trade, meaning that I want the stock being called away. Here are some details on the trade:

12/24/2012 11:19:36 Bought 100 DMD @ 9.5
12/24/2012 11:19:36 Sold 1 DMD Feb 16 2013 10.0 Call @ 0.6
Total trade: $890.00
Commissions: $8.78
Total NET trade: $898.78

Option assignment: $1,000.00
Option assignment fee: $19.00
Expected proceeds: $981.00

Expected NET gain: $82.22
Expected ROI: 9.15%

I am expecting the stock to rise at or above $10 per share at expiration in February. If that happens, I will realize the expected return. If it doesn’t happen and the stock stays below the strike price I will repeat the process and sell another 10 strike call against already held position as long as the stock is called away.

Here is a trade adjustment taken on 01/29/2013




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