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Posted by Martin March 01, 2012
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ISM Feb Manufacturing Index Falls


The U.S. manufacturing sector’s expansion slowed in February, according to data released Thursday by the Institute for Supply Management. The report followed disappointing data covering January consumer activity that led some economists to mark down their estimates of first-quarter economic growth.

The ISM’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 52.4 last month from 54.1 in January. The February reading was the weakest since November. A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the February PMI to increase to 54.9.

Factory surveys from regional Federal Reserve banks as well as the ISM-Chicago’s local PMI all indicated a speed-up in activity last month. Thursday’s ISM report raises questions about the strength of the expansion on a nationwide level.

Source: www.dowjones.com




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Posted by Martin January 09, 2012
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New trade – FCX


Freeport McMoRan (FCX)

Bear Call spread

BTO 1 FCX Feb18 2012 42.00 Call
STO 1 FCX Feb18 2012 39.00 Call

Price: limit credit $1.20

Max risk: $180
Max gain: $120 if price stays below $39 at expiration

Update:
01/10/2012 – filled @ $1.2 ($120 credit)




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Posted by Martin January 06, 2012
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New trade – DO


This trade shall open on Monday next week:

Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc (DO)

Iron Condor

BTO 1 DO Jan21 2012 66.25 Call
STO 1 DO Jan21 2012 61.25 Call
STO 1 DO Jan21 2012 52.00 Put
BTO 1 DO Jan21 2012 47.00 Put

Price: limit credit $4.61

Max risk: $39
Max gain: $461 if price is between 52.00 – 61.25 at expiration

Update:
01/09/2012 – trade canceled – market maker unable to execute as condor combination, it may work as separate spreads, so I will review later if it makes sense to add as separate spreads.




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Posted by Martin January 05, 2012
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New trade – UNG


U.S. Natural Gas ETF (UNG)

Long call

BTO 1 UNG Apr21 2012 7 Call

Price: limit debit $0.25

Max risk: $25
Max gain: Unlimited

Update:
01/07/2012 – canceled, it didn’t meet the entry price




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Posted by Martin January 04, 2012
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New trade – GLD butterfly


When looking at GLD recently, we can see that it broke below its 200 day MA as well as it broke thru its long term trend. It seems GLD is poised to go lower. Today the market showed a bit weak trading (compared to yesterday’s big move), so I believe, GLD can get lower during this month. Right now it is attacking 200 day MA from which it may go back down to $150 or even lower.

I will play this downtrend by placing a butterfly on GLD:

SPDR Gold Trust

Put Butterfly

BTO 1 GLD Jan21 2012 154 Put
STO 2 GLD Jan21 2012 150 Put
BTO 1 GLD Jan21 2012 146 Put

Price: limit debit $0.58

Max risk: $58
Max gain: $350 at expiration if the stock lands at $150 per share.

Update:
01/05/2012 – order filled @ 0.58




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Posted by Martin January 03, 2012
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New trade – ATI; Trade adjustment – SLB


I am going to open a new contingent order:

Allegheny Technologies

Long Puts

Contingency:
If the stock’s last price is greater or equal than 54.20 then:

BTO 1 ATI Apr21 2012 55 Put

Price: at market (expected price per contract would be $6.2)

Max risk: $620
Max gain: Unlimited (potential target: $11.70 or $1170 per contract)

Update:
01/06/2012 – trade canceled, it didn’t meet the entry price

I am also going to adjust the following position by rolling up the upper body of the butterfly:

Schlumberger

Put Butterfly

Unfortunately my broker doesn’t allow me to roll over with one order, so I have to close the upper body first and then open higher part later:

1st step:
BTC 2 SLB Jan21 2012 60 Put
STC 1 SLB Jan21 2012 65 Put

Price: limit credit $0.25

When filled, 2nd step will follow:

BTO 1 SLB Jan21 2012 70 Put
STC 2 SLB Jan21 2012 65 Put

Price: limit debit $0.93

This trade will be taken on both my accounts: TD trading account and ROTH IRA account.

Update:
01/04/2012 – I talked to my broker and they do not allow me to open an uneven butterfly, so I would need to treat it as spreads. For that I do not have enough money on my account and thus I cannot finish this conversion. Thus I am considering this trade as closed with a loss.
I sold the upper body for credit $0.23, with the original cost of $0.78 this trade is a loss 70%




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Posted by Martin January 03, 2012
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Trade adjustment CAT


Trade adjustment on Caterpillar:

Put Spread
STC 1 CAT Jan21 2012 90 Put
BTO 1 CAT Feb21 2012 90 Put
STO 1 CAT Feb21 2012 85 Put

Limit debit $0.15
New cost basis: $2.73




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Posted by Martin January 01, 2012
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New trades – GD, DB,


New trade ideas to be entered on Tuesday morning:

General Dynamics

Short stock
STO 13 GD at stop = $66.24; limit = $66.10
If filled, stop loss at $68.36

Max risk: $27.56
Max gain: Unlimited

Update:
01/03/2012 – trade canceled, it didn’t meet entry price

Deutsche Bank

Diagonal Put Spread
BTO 1 DB Apr21 2012 30 Put
STO 1 DB Jan21 2012 32.5 Put

Limit debit $1.75

Max risk: $425
Max gain: Unlimited after January expiration

Update:
01/03/2012 – filled @ 1.75 debit




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Posted by Martin December 31, 2011
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HAPPY NEW YEAR 2012

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2012

2012The old year 2011 is coming to its end and it is a time to review the old year and make a resolution for the new year 2012.

Reviewing the old year I must admit that it was a very successful year. I finally was able to get closer to my dream – trading for a living. I am not out of the forest yet and trading for a living yet, but I am trading and that’s what makes me satisfied.

Of course, my trading is not on my own, but under a trading coaching from a professional trader. When you take a look at my trading performance, it is not perfect yet, but I can see a huge difference from previous years. I started my coaching four months ago and I was able to recover my trading balance of 2011 year and end up flat. I hope that next year I will be able to finally make money and recover my account.

My other accounts such as Lending Club also performed well. Thanks to my rules of selecting debt notes and eliminating potential bad notes. During the year I slightly modified my rules of selecting new notes by adding another filter to my original rules described in this post “Lending Club“: length of employment more than 4 years” and to my bad notes eliminating process described in my “How to avoid default notes when investing with Lending Club” I added one more rule: When the FICO score suddenly drops very low (to 500 or lower) I sell such a note even though it is still current. These rules helped me to maintain my annual return at 12.53% (an improvement from 12.47% last year, see in my post “My goal with Lending Club“) Also my goal of generating income from Lending Club improved from 15% to 43%. Although I am following all the rules when investing with Lending Club, I have only one note which may potentially get default and overall improving results.

On my ROTH IRA account I have the same results as last year. I didn’t have much time to pay attention to this account and I am following my rules. I still will be dividend investing in this account and also small portion will be used for trading to boost income which can be reinvested.

As far as this website, I am working on a new image and hopefully upload the new website soon. It will also change some stuff such as categories and the way I am reporting the new and exited trades.

I would like to wish happy new year 2012, success, love, health and good trading or investing results. Let the new year be better than the old one and all your dreams may come true. Celebrate the New Year 2012 safely and see you next year!

Happy Trading in 2012!




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Posted by Martin December 21, 2011
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Wacky Trading today


SPX opened lower on worries over the Europe (like we haven’t heard about it previously), then technicals got in, mainly Oracle’s bad results and pushed the market (SPX) all the way down to 1230. That looked scary! At least for me since two days ago I reversed my bearish outlook into bullish and I started seeing nice profit in my SPY long calls. And today morning this gains were vanishing again!

Isn’t that frustrating?!

Then news about Yahoo! and Bank of America deal pushed the market back up and SPX closed with moderate gain. Technically it is a good sign, keeping the market in positive territory for upcoming Santa Claus rally, which now looks more realistic to happen. From historical perspective it should start on Monday next week and last the whole week. In average such rally should bring a nice 1% profit.

I am expecting the market to push towards 200 day MA and maybe even above it. If that happens I should see nice profit on my SPY calls.

I am looking on undertaking couple more bullish trades, but currently my broker is holding my money (I deposited some cash and when trading non-marginable securities he holds the money for three business days), so I have to wait. Tomorrow I should be able to open new trades.

Hopefully the market will sustain its short term bullish momentum and I will be able to ride it up. As soon as we hit 200 day MA, I start using tight trailing stop loss, because overall market outlook is still bearish. I have seen some traders expecting SPY to go as low as 118 level in January. The reason would be worsening data from the US and possible break up of Euro zone, which is IMHO inevitable. So trading this market can be quite dangerous and hard… and very frustrating!

Let’s see what Mr. Market brings us tomorrow.

Happy Trading!




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