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Posted by Martin October 05, 2011
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SPY rised almost 2% on hopes for rescue of European banks


The market (SPY) rised on hopes and wishful thinking today on mediocre volume. Nothing exciting today.

“The market is trading on sentiment right now, not fundamentals,” said Rob Stein, head of Astor Asset Management. “People are hoping that the bounce yesterday means that we’ve hit a bottom, but the problems that were in the economy Monday haven’t changed since then.”

The US economy isn’t any stronger today and Europe hasn’t solved their problems at all. They are melting it a bit, so when it hits with full strength, it won’t be that hard. At least they hope for it.

So what is the outcome? If you bought higher, sell now before the market falls again. Mr. Market is offering you a way out.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 04, 2011
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Stock market in rollercoaster


Wow, today’s trading was really crazy! I must admit I suffered some big hits today. Well, overall I am still up and making money, but some $500 day loss. Little bit less than that, actually.

What’s crazier here is the reason for such irrational move of rallying up in the last 30 minutes of trading. The whole day S&P 500 (SPX or SPY) was trading almost 200 points down and last 30 minutes a huge reversal. On a quite high volume. But what was behind it? Just a report of the European Central Bank that they are working on re-capitalizing European banks with new capital. But where do they want to take the money from? The whole Europe is sinking in debt and they want to put more money into banks. Where from?

I have read an opinion somewhere on the Internet, that all this is just a smoke and mirror cover to hide the reality – spreading the Greek debt among more banks or investment institutions so those over-exposed banks (mostly French and German) will not get hit when Greece finally defaults.

I must admit, that I do not see any other reason for this madness.

To support this take a look at French-Belgian bank Dexia. The bank is overly exposed to Greek bonds, mostly heavily undervalued or better devalued. Another impulse to this market move was that the Belgian and French Government agreed to help. However, the crisis inside the bank is so deep, that this bank may become the first victim of the debt crisis. At this point the bank has liquidity problems and is seeking to increase her capital reserves. But stock holders do not want the bank to borrow more money and they would rather see selling portions of the bank. That would mean splitting the bank into two units and selling one unit to increase reserves.

Well, no matter what will happen in Europe I do not think, this solves the problem and thus I expect October to be more sluggish. We may see drops in the value and more downside move. However, thanks to the elevated volatility (VIX.X) these swings will be more wild and vicious.

Today’s rally just stopped at the (previous support) now resistance and I do not see much of an impulse pushing this market higher (back thru its new resistance). Therefore we may see a reversal tomorrow or the following day declining towards 100 – 105 level. If that happens, I will not only recover all today’s losses, but make nice profits. If it won’t happen, I will have to swallow my pride, get out of the bearish position and move on.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 04, 2011
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Fed is going to help faltering economy, said Ben Bernanke


(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve is prepared to take further steps to help an economic recovery that is “close to faltering”, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Tuesday.

Great! And investors got crazy about this proclamation and started buying. Good move if you want to lose money. Are these idiots out there blind? O.k. I am asking Mr. Bernanke:

 

HOW?

 

“The (Fed’s policy-setting Open Market) Committee will continue to closely monitor economic developments and is prepared to take further action as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in the context of price stability,” Bernanke told the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

If this statement made someone exited, then that guy should stop trading or investing. He or she is ruining his investments.

How can FED help?

Printing more money? They’ve been doing it since the crisis started on a fast pace than ever before. And how that helped so far?

Lowering the interest rate? It’s been lowered to zero already and how did it help so far? Are they going to pay borrowers for borrowing money? Something like backward-interest rate?

More “Operation twist” action? What will that do? Moving one debt from one pocket to another?

Please, can someone explain me how Mr. Bernanke wants to help the economy and bad situation in Europe? I ma reconsider my bearish view.




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Posted by Martin October 04, 2011
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S&P 500 enters a bear territory


Experienced traders and investors analyzing markets on daily basis knew this in the beginning of August 2011. The market started this process of reversal in February 2011. we went sideways and we were creating a head and shoulders pattern (see my previous posts speaking about it during June and July, when this was becoming more and more apparent). SPY then broke the neck line in August (August 2, and following days) and then we went deeply down. Some called this as a new mini crash. Later on we entered into a bear consolidation and created bearish pennant. Some saw a triangle. Yesterday we broke the pennant too which was more then expected.

However, media started talking about it today and some even yesterday. That may be a sign of bottoming. We may see some more downward movement, but when we will see capitulation (a hysteria in the market), that would be the time to reverse my bearish trades. As far as now, I am still bearish, but cautious.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 03, 2011
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Korea Halts Trading After 5% Slump


South Korean shares opened sharply lower Tuesday as investors offloaded stocks following a slide on Wall Street and amid concerns that Greece is slipping closer to a default.

The Korea Exchange briefly halted program trading to alleviate some of the selling momentum after the main Korea Composite Stock Price Index share index fell over 5%.

The Kospi was down 5.1% at 1,678.62. Losses are broad-based, with construction, technology and chemical stocks leading the decliners. Bellwether Samsung Electronics was down 5.2%, while LG Display was 7.1% lower.

“The Kospi will likely be pressured further down from here with investor sentiment fast freezing up,” said Tong Yang Securities’ analyst Lee Jae-mahn.

The Korean won was also under heavy selling pressure, with the Bank of Korea suspected of stepping into the market to support the local currency. The dollar was last at KRW1,199.80, compared with KRW1,178 late Friday.

Korean markets were closed Monday for a national holiday.

Source The Wall Street Journal




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Posted by Martin October 03, 2011
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Shorting SPY once again


Based on the current trading I decided to enter my puts at this point. So I bought 2 contracts of November SPY puts @111 strike. If the market reverses I will quickly liquidate this trade, but if it continues down I will stay riding it.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 03, 2011
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Profit taking


I decided to liquidate some of my positions in SPY and FFIV. SPY started to diminish due to time decay so I decided to sell my puts and I will buy November puts since the market is slumping down. I will see at the end of the trading session today.

Change The Way You Trade Forever

Definitely the market broke thru its support today. Let’s see if it stays there. Before the end if we stay below its original support (now resistance) I will buy November puts to ride this market further down to $100 level where the next support is.

We are definitely breaking the consolidation pattern, so hold your breath & hats, we are going down.

FFIV doubled my money (investment) and I took 112% profit on this. It stalled at its support, time decay started working against me and in October there will be an earnings report published, so time to take profits. If it breaks support I might enter by buying new puts.

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 03, 2011
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SPY – will support hold?


Today’s trading will be crucial. The market opened at its support line at $112 level. Will it hold this support or will we break it? If we hold, we may spike back up and stay in the corrective pattern. If we however close below this support line, the market will be poised to slump down to $100 level. Watch today’s trading carefully!

Happy Trading!




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Posted by Martin October 03, 2011
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Stocks set to dip on fresh fears about Greece

Stocks set to dip on fresh fears about Greece

By CNNMoney staff October 3, 2011: 7:39 AM ET
Premarkets.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — On the first trading day of the fourth quarter, U.S. stocks were poised to fall at the open; following a sell off in world markets, as investors fret over Greece’s ability to avoid default and a slowing global economy.

Dow Jones industrial average (INDU), S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq (COMP) futures were all lower ahead of the opening bell. Stock futures indicate the possible direction of the markets when they open at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Investors are watching closely as Greece attempts to deal with its debt crisis. Greece has slashed spending, reduced wages and raised taxes in an attempt to bring its debt under control.

But even still, the debt-ridden nation will miss key deficit targets for this year and next, according to the draft budget announced by the Greek cabinet late Sunday.

There isn’t a whole lot of optimism that Greece will pull though. Out of 22 economists surveyed by CNNMoney, almost all of them believe Greece will default on its debt by the end of next year. The third quarter is over. Good riddance!

Stocks were hammered Friday, with all three major stock indices shaving more than 2%, as investors remain worried about the debt crisis in Europe and the outlook for global economic growth.

The losses capped the biggest quarterly drop for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq since the fourth quarter of 2008. The S&P 500 lost 14%, and the Nasdaq fell 13% over the last three months. The Dow fell 12% in the quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance since the first quarter of 2009.

In addition to fretting over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, investors are anxious about slowing economic activity in the United States and around the world. The Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund both warned of increasing risks to the global economic recovery.

World markets: European stocks were sharply lower in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 (UKX) fell 1.6%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany tumbled 2.3% and France’s CAC 40 (CAC40) dropped 2.1%.

Asian markets also ended lower. The Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong plunged 4.4%, while Japan’s Nikkei (N225) shed 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) is closed this week for holiday.

Economy: Wall Street will get the Institute for Supply Management’s August manufacturing index, as well as construction spending figures from the Commerce Department.

Economists expect the September ISM index will fall to a reading of 50.5, from last month’s 50.6. Construction spending figures are expected to decrease 0.5% — coming in above last month’s 1.3% decrease.

Major auto manufacturers will also report auto sales for September at 3 p.m.

Companies: Shares of Eastman Kodak (EK, Fortune 500) dropped almost 60% Friday. Trading halted on the stock several times, amid rumors that the camera maker has hired a law firm for advice on a major restructuring or bankruptcy filing. The company later denied that it is planning bankruptcy moves. Shares rebounded 46% in premarket trading Monday.
Europe’s Debt Crisis

In response to a question following the China 2.0 conference at Stanford University — Jack Ma, the CEO of Chinese Internet conglomerate Alibaba Group, said that his company would be “interested” in buying all of struggling online media firm Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500). Shares of Yahoo rose almost 6% in premarkets.

Apple’s new CEO, Tim Cook, will take the stage at the Town Hall auditorium on Apple’s (AAPL, Fortune 500) Cupertino, Calif., campus Tuesday to unveil the new iteration of the iPhone. Rumors are swirling over whether there will be one new iPhone or two. Shares of Apple edged higher in premarket trading.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar gained against the euro and the British pound, but lost ground against the Japanese yen.

Oil for November delivery lost 81 cents to $78.39 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $37.60 to $1,659.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged up slightly, pushing the yield down to 1.90%. To top of page

Source CNN Money




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Market ends third quarter with heavy losses

Market ends third quarter with heavy losses

As I wrote in my previous post, investors were just buying a pure wishful thinking, hoping for better times, improvement and trying to avoid recession (in their thoughts). Although some data from US came better than expected, they weren’t strong enough to offset bad data from Europe.

So watch the European debt crisis, since it will drive markets in the near future.

The debt crisis in Europe is “all that anybody cares about,” said Dan Greenhaus, chief global strategist at brokerage firm BTIG. “The worst-case scenario is a disintegration of the European banking sector.”

Concerns about government debt problems in Europe intensified in the third quarter. Investors are afraid that Greece could default on its debts, setting off a banking crisis similar to the one that occurred after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008.

In addition, economic activity in the United States and around the world has slowed. The Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund both warned of increasing risks to the global economic recovery.

“It’s been a very uncomfortable quarter for investors as news from Europe and now China has filtered into equity valuations,” said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager with Federated Clover Investment Advisers.

Source CNN Money

Since we know what fundamental data drive the market down, we also can see that the market is in bearish trend from technical perspective.

SPY

The market (here represented by (SPY)) wildly broke thru the resistance of the pennant pattern, see the note #1 on the chart, a few days ago. It immediately dropped down to a long term support on $122 level (see large green arrow) and bounced back. On hopes and wishful thinking the market rallied up, shortly broke thru the pennant resistance line (magenta line) and long term resistance on $118 level (thin blue line at that level). Then the market could rally all the way up and re-test the short term resistance (see small green arrow with note #3), but it didn’t have strength to do that, reversed and fell back down (see the reversal pivot marked by a large red arrow). The wild fall following this short term reversal can now be another re-test of the support at $112 level or we will broke thru. However, in short term perspective, we are seeing new lower highs (see arrow with tag #2 pointing to the new short term trend), which confirm that the market is in bearish trend and there is no sign (yet) of strength.

With all bad news coming from Europe, economic slowdown, it is very likely that the market will continue down. We will see in the following weeks. Being said that, I am staying bearish and holding my put positions in SPY. The pre-market data point to another drop down opening on Monday (it can change by then, however), so wait for further slope down trading next week.

Happy Trading!




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