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Posted by Martin March 02, 2023
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03.01.2023 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

As expected, the markets ended down today. The manufacturing data came in showing the economy is cooling off and slowing. Investors cannot make their minds up. At first, they were cheering the bad data but then some unimportant FED members started blabbing about higher rates and the market participants pooped their pants. Despite all of this the market still holds critical support levels. We are below $4,000 but still above $3,940 where tons of puts are sitting. That provides significant support.

 
Market Outlook
 

The daily Ichimoku is still in bad shape showing weakness. The price dropped into the cloud but we finished above it. It still can hit lower and that would be another bearish point to this crappy market.

 
Market Outlook
 

The weekly Ichimoku shows no improvement either:

 
Market Outlook
 

Tomorrow, the market price forecast indicates more weakness and I think it may happen given all other charts supporting more decline. The support at 3,940 may hold and we may see a bounce, though. But I think we will end down tomorrow too. Any bounce-up will be a reason for selling call spreads.

 
Market Outlook
 

This is a delayed outlook. If you want to learn more about our SPX weekly analysis, subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Guest March 01, 2023
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Gaining Mental Trust For Your Trading


mental trust

I hear from time to time that when beginners start dealing with trading, e.g. with options trading, they ask themselves at the beginning of their journey whether the whole concept of trading works at all. Because what they lack at the beginning is mental trust, which is absolutely necessary to achieve permanent positive results in trading. Of course, you can always convince beginners that trading works. But in the end, we don’t usually believe what others tell us, but when we have our own experience to verify other people’s information in this way.

But gaining trading experience is a little different because this kind of experience can cost money. And especially it does at the beginning, because beginners make a lot of mistakes, making wrong decisions, and they risk far too much or sometimes too little.

 

The Importance Of A Positive Mental Mindset

 

For this reason, it is very important that beginners get on a positive path right from the start. That means they need to experience success and be rewarded for trading. Because only if you are rewarded with positive results again and again at the beginning, then a mental belief sets in that trading (no matter what kind of it) actually works.

Thus, let’s take a look at two traders as an example. Two traders with the same starting capital and the same (proved) trading strategy. The only difference is in their mental beliefs. The first one is absolutely convinced of his trading and his success. The other, on the other hand, is very critical and skeptical, saying that trading doesn’t work. Who do you think will be successful even though they both have the same money and strategy? Well, the probability that the first trader will be successful is much higher than that of the second trader.

But please don’t get it wrong: just believing that a trade will work does not automatically mean that it will work in any case. Nevertheless, just by having a positive mental trust (or mental belief if you will), the first trader will see completely different possibilities in the markets. And even on losing trades, he will be able to analyze the trades in a different way. He will recognize what he did wrong and what he can do better on the next trade. In other words, he will always discover something to move forward in its trading.
The second trader, on the other hand, will usually get confirmation that the trading system or trading in general, is not working. But it’s not the system, it’s just his negative mental trust preventing him to move on.

 

What Is the Problem With the Tips and Tricks for Trading?

 

Most trading tips and tricks are usually designed to fool ourselves. This is because humans are not made to be successful in the stock market. For our problem is that we have the wrong mindset when we start trading. We also cannot imagine certain things.

A simple example: If you tell someone today that you make a 10% profit on the stock market, most people will just shrug their shoulders. Because 10% sounds like little and most would say that you can certainly earn more elsewhere.

Why is it so? Quite simply because nobody can imagine the effect of compound interest. Nobody can imagine what can become of 10% compound interest within a period of time, and what unbelievable sums of money can arise from it. Our heads are just not made for it. However, what it is made for, and you see that very often these days, is that people are looking for a quick buck. What they want is to make a lot of money in a short period of time, and they are blinded by the few people who have made it through a lucky coincidence.

 

This Is How You Can Gain Mental Confidence For Trading

 

Now here comes the trick to gaining mental confidence in your trading. But even this trick is actually of that kind to outwit yourself. But it’s quite helpful for newcomers to gain that confidence they lack in the beginning. And it’s also relatively simple, so at first glance, it doesn’t seem helpful at all because it’s so simple.
 

mental trust
 

The solution is: as an (absolute) beginner in options trading, set up trades where the probability that you will suffer little or no loss is extremely high!

Sounds simple and maybe nothing new for you? Are you disappointed now because you might have expected an academic or complicated, secretive approach? Then ask yourself now: have you already thought about it and have you implemented this idea? I already know which answer most people have in mind right now. The answer will be: “No, I didn’t implement it”.

If you’ve already done it, then congratulations, you don’t need mental confidence in your trading anymore because you already have it.

If you haven’t tried this trick yet, I’ll briefly explain how you can make such trades to gain mental trust:

 

Four Steps Of How To Gain Mental Trust In Trading

 

1) Choose an underlying that suits your account size. For example, if you have $3.000 available, then you shouldn’t pick an expensive stock, and for sure not a future. If you have $50.000 then you are also welcome to try it with a future contract or with a stock that costs e.g. $60 – $70.

2) Pick a strike that is so far from the current price of the underlying that you would make no money or almost no money. For example, such a strike could net you $0 after fees, or maybe $5-$10. A suitable delta for such options could be in the range of less than or equal to 5, i.e. delta 5, delta 3, or even delta 1. Just search a bit and you will find a suitable underlying.

3) Think of a strategy where you not only make little money but also lose as little money as possible. By picking a far-out-of-the-money strike, you already have a good chance that the trade would develop in your favor. But there is still a residual risk. One way to protect yourself and limit the loss further is, for example, not to sell naked calls or puts, but to set up spreads. This makes sense, especially for expensive stocks or when you want to sell options on futures.

4) Observe what happens. Even if the position should develop negatively, hold it! Don’t close it and don’t adjust it! Because if you followed the instructions, you should have positive results at least in 95% of all your mental trades. And with positivity, I don’t mean earning money, but seeing that your idea worked. And the positions that performed negatively should bring you just a minimal loss.

Even if I repeat myself: this trick is very simple, but it has a great effect. For this exercise causes something positive in you. The reason for this is that you also sell an option in the expectation that it has a certain probability with the trade you have set up. For example, if you trade at Delta 10, you have a theoretical 90% chance that the trade will work. Of course, despite such a high probability, the trade will go against you.

Hence, what we’re doing with this trick is just seeing how it stacks up with probability. That means what comes out at the end of the trade doesn’t matter at all. What is important is that the trade ends up showing you that it will meet the probability that you expect in the end (and in most cases, it will do).
What is the positive effect of this exercise? Financially, it doesn’t bring you anything at all. But if you are a complete beginner and have doubts (and you will have them), after 20-30 trades of this type you will see that the stats are going in your favor. It also doesn’t matter whether you will set up trades with the trend or against the trend. Because of this exercise, the probability of a loss is very low.

But this simple exercise gives you so much mental trust that you can then start trading certain account sizes with a profit. In other words, you will start actually making money trading options!

 

Final Words

 

If you have never dealt with options trading, you will not have confidence at first and also doubts. But it’s not your fault because it’s absolutely normal – options trading also has to be learned before you get profitable. And in my experience, you usually don’t come to options trading as a complete beginner, but you have had other experiences before, e.g. in day trading, forex trading, etc.

And usually, those experiences have been negative ones. Because if they were positive, you probably wouldn’t know or wanted to know about options trading if you had success with other trading opportunities. These negative experiences have therefore shaped your mental image.

Therefore, you must first condition yourself positively. And when someone tells you to have faith, it usually has no effect. Because one thing is theory and the other you have to experience for yourself to gain mental trust. With this exercise, you can increase your mental trust enormously. And the best thing about this exercise is that not only will you learn a lot about options and options trading. You’ll also learn a lot about yourself.
For example, you can also write down how these test trades make you feel. Because we are not talking about paper trading here, but trading with real money. And if it’s just $10, it’s always different when it comes to trading with real money. But this is actually enough to get to condition you positively.
And if you’ve already taken your first steps in options trading and haven’t had success, just try this simple trick. I can assure you that you will be able to gain mental strength through this. And this one will take you to a whole different level in options trading.

 
 




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Posted by Martin March 01, 2023
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02.28.2023 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Another zig-zag day and selling based on no news. Only fear of FED. But that is a known issue and worrying about a known issue is usually wrong. Bearishness again increased to January 2023 lows (after which the market rallied 10%), so the odds are we will be seeing a bounce. Of course, nothing is guaranteed and it may not happen if some news that spooks the investors pop out.

 
Market Outlook
 

Right now, the markets are still holding critical support around the $4,000 level. There is a “wall of puts” at the 3,920-3,940 level so if we happen to go lower, these levels should provide additional support. However, the technical odds are still “down” and we will need more conviction from the bulls to turn this around.

 
Market Outlook
 

The daily Ichimoku chart got worse and the price dropped all the way to the top of the cloud. On one hand, I expected this move as we had too much “white space” between the price and the cloud. But now, that we have arrived at the cloud, it needs to hold and we need to bounce from here to save the day. If we start breaking down, we will see more troubles.
The weekly chart is at the same undecided level. The price has a hard time breaking above the cloud. The chart is sideways with a bearish outlook.

 
Market Outlook
 

The market was supposed to rally, but instead, it was trading sideways and selling off at the end of the session. There was simply no support buying and other charts didn’t confirm the trend. Tomorrow the trend forecasting suggests a choppy trend that should end bullish but again, we do not have a confirmation from the other charts so odds are that the market will end flat to down tomorrow.

 
Market Outlook
 

This is a delayed outlook. If you want to learn more about our SPX weekly analysis, subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin March 01, 2023
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Technical view: T-Mobile US, Inc. (TMUS)


Technical view
 

TMUS is in stage #3. The stock struggles to break above its all-time high at 155 a share. It bounced off of it and falls lower. The trend is still intact but already vulnerable. On the weekly chart, we are seeing a V-shape recovery from 2022 lows, but it may also turn into a cup-and-handle pattern. If so, we will need to form the handle and that may send the stock below $130 a share.

 
Technical view weekly
 

One reason for price stagnation could be stagnating revenue. The company saw a very strong boost in revenue during and after the Covid lockdown but then moved sideways. In previous years, the company saw steady revenue growth. Not anymore.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The free cash flow of T-Mobile is horrible.

 
Technical view weekly
 

TMUS has enormous debt and very little cash to pay it, though lately, the company was paying the debt of:

 
Technical view weekly
 

Technical view weekly
 

Fundamentally, TMUS is overvalued. But we received an estimate for 2025 already, and it is higher by a double-digit number. Buying today would mean a 14% annualized return by 2025, which beats the market. So, although the stock is overvalued, it is a good buy for future valuation. As of today, the stock appears to undergo a time-based correction.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The stock is now HOLD
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, February 25th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin February 28, 2023
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Stocks additions to the watchlist (JXN, CVS)


Our strategy is to be accumulating assets and then monetize those positions by selling options around them. We are constantly looking for good quality stocks that pay dividends (but also growth stocks), have decent dividends that are safe and growing, and can be optionable. And that is why we are adding two new stocks to our watchlist (JXN, CVS):
 

Upon reviewing a few stocks, I am adding Jackson Financial Inc. (JXN) to our watch list and start accumulating the stock. Our calculated fair value is $344.98 and the stock is trading at $45.38, so there is a huge potential for a 104% annualized return by 2025. Note the stock may stay below the fair value for years, so do not immediately assume it will skyrocket from $45 to $344 in two years (though it may, because anything can happen).

 
Our second addition to the watchlist and potential accumulation is CVS Health Corporation (CVS). That’s a good old health services provider, so nothing new and spectacular. What is interesting about this stock today is that it is also trading below its fair value ($150.29 a share), providing a potential for a 23% annualized return in two years, started growing the dividend again, and has rapidly growing revenue. The only concern is the debt which is quite high but the company started decreasing it.
 

The technical analysis of these stocks will be also added to our Newsletter.

 
 




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Posted by Martin February 28, 2023
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02.27.2023 – MONDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

We received the durable goods report before the bell and it didn’t look good. The market popped initially on the bad (good) news but during the day we lost steam and gave away most of the gains.

 
Market Outlook
 

The market is still sitting on the major supports but the odds are to the downside. These haven’t changed yet although they may change anytime.
The daily Ichimoku chart is getting worse speaking to the bearish odds:

 
Market Outlook
 

The weekly chart still shows no improvement either. But if we continue sideways it will improve naturally, LOL. As of today, we are still in a sideways range bound trend:

 
Market Outlook
 

The market sort of behaved as predicted, we had a pop-up and a retreat. Tomorrow, we may see a new uptrend:

 
Market Outlook
 

This is a delayed outlook. If you want to learn more about our SPX weekly analysis, subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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Posted by Martin February 24, 2023
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02.23.2023 – THURSDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

Today, we were supposed to crash and not recover. We crashed. And we recovered. That shows how resilient this market is. At first, the early gains turned red and all hope for a good green day was lost. But then, the supply of sellers dried up, buyers stepped in and we reversed the course rapidly. The market finished in green and that is what matters the most. Not how we start with all the impulsive investors chasing their yesterday missed moment, but how we finish seeing the big money stepping in.

 
Market Outlook
 

And that is the most important thing. This can gain good momentum tomorrow and big guys may continue buying. If that happens, that can set the tone for next week’s trading. If this plays out, the current selling would be a pullback – which provides a great opportunity.

 
Market Outlook
 

The daily Ichimoku chart continues flashing its bearish trend but it is filling the gap between the price and the cloud. Yes, that white space was concerning, indicating the market was overextended to the upside. Now we are sitting almost at the top of the cloud. If we bounce here and continue higher hugging the cloud, consider this a perfect bounce and confirmation of a new bull market.
The weekly chart still has work to do but it will take weeks before we see any effect. So far the trend is still vulnerable (but improving).

 
Market Outlook
 

Given the momentum we saw today, I think the forecast will be correct tomorrow and we will see a green day:

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 23, 2023
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02.22.2023 – WEDNESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

The markets were volatile after the FOMC meeting minutes. And that volatility will probably continue as investors are scared. They propelled worthless tech stocks up during the 2020 and 2021 frenzy and now they are scared to hold these stocks and dumping them en masse. And along with those, they dump good quality stocks like Google or Amazon. They say Google’s growth slowed down (to 10% growth compared to 41% growth last year), but that is normal cyclical behavior. Next year it can accelerate again ( and when this bearishness ends, I expect it to happen). But these people are foolish and sell, just because this or next quarter, the stock will be slower than usual. At least, they are providing me with a good opportunity to buy. In the meantime, we have to survive the market being dragged down.

 
Market Outlook
 

The market ended slightly below $4,000 today (it went up a bit after hours and finished above $4,000 as you can see in the above chart). There is no improvement. The sentiment is overly bearish and there is still a good chance that we will go lower and retest the 200-day MA.

 
Market Outlook
 

The Ichimoku charts are both bearish too. The daily chart shows what I expected to happen – closing the white space between the price and the cloud. The price is now approaching the cloud and should find support on it. If so, this will be a healthy pullback. If not, expect a bad outcome. The weekly chart is still full-blown bearish, struggling to move above the cloud.

 
Market Outlook
 

The forecast indicated a bullish outcome but it doesn’t take into account the FOMC and fickle investors. Inflation and economic data recently published indicated that they will have a negative impact on the FED’s pivot and markets and that is exactly what we saw today. Despite the FED’s “higher and longer” rhetoric, the markets held relatively well (we could drop way deeper than just a measly -0.14%). But this can change quickly. The markets trade efficiently and when looking at the chart below, the volume profile is creating a vacuum above the POC. At some point, the market would want that space filled. But given the weakness and bearish sentiment, I do not think this will be the case. We probably end lower tomorrow.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 22, 2023
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02.21.2023 – TUESDAY MARKET OUTLOOK


Market Outlook
 

We got hit in multiple directions today. First, the foray of economic data came in and they were so good that investors started, once again, freakin gout that this may force the FED to keep the rates higher for longer (good news is bad news). Then, we received reports from Walmart and Target. They were good, but the guidance was bad suggesting that the consumer may be pulling back with spending. Instead of cheering it, investors freaked even more that we are going into recession (bad news is bad news). And we are not done here. Tomorrow, we will get hit by FOMC, GDP, and PCE reports. That can be sparky out there…

 
Market Outlook
 

So, the market dropped 1.66% today. And it may go actually lower, all the way down to the 200-day MA. So far we have found support slightly above $4,000 support but if tomorrow we get more bad news (good news that is bad) we may slide below swiftly. Now the daily Ichimoku chart looks really weak and bad suggesting that there will be more selling momentum.

 
Market Outlook
 

The weekly Ichimoku now looks better. Not that it improved, but because it holds the trend. But that may change very soon and very quickly:

 
Market Outlook
 

As I suspected, the weakness was flashing everywhere and the bullish stance was unlikely. We ended in the red. And although tomorrow’s forecast is also bullish, I expect either a red day or flat. This can be significantly changed by tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. Therefore I do not expect anything from this market.

 
Market Outlook
 

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Posted by Martin February 22, 2023
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Technical view: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)


Technical view
 

PayPal PYPL is still in stage #4. It was morphing into stage #1 but failed and resumed its downtrend. It is trading below its 2025 fair value providing an opportunity for 8% annualized growth at the current price. The price action speaks for a probability of a further decline so if you are interested in this stock (which in my opinion is still an innovative payment processor compared to others or traditional banks) any share buying needs to be done gradually at the current prices. I do not expect the stock to go lower as it is evidently bottoming. It may stay here for a long time. And if you buy now, be prepared for a slow movement up or even further decline.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company shows growing revenue despite troubles and a recent decline. The revenue (6.72% annual average, and 14.55% 5-year average) was higher in 2022 than in 2021 so the selloff in 2022 seems to be an overreaction:

 
Technical view weekly
 

The free cash flow is steady with no growth but steady. We would prefer some growth in this metric. Even a small growth would be appreciated and it would provide some boost for the stock price movement. PYPL recently replaced their CEO, so let’s hope that move will be for the better and the company improves its finances which would translate to better stock valuation:

 
Technical view weekly
 

The company increased its cash substantially last year which could retire its entire debt. I think this is a very positive balance and something investors are not appreciating enough:

 
Technical view weekly
 

Technical view weekly
 

Fundamentally, the stock is trading above its fair value, but below its future fair value (see the red line in the chart above). At the current price, and if the earnings estimates remain at the current level, the stock may offer 9% growth in two years. And if it sparks a FOMO, it may be even better. I think the stock is a good long-term investment.

 
Technical view weekly
 

The stock is now BUY
 

This post was published in our newsletter to our subscribers on Saturday, February 18th, 2023. If you want to learn more about our stock technical analysis subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
 




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